John Bonnes

The Big Picture In the hyper-competitive NL East, the Braves are 4.5 games back of the division leading Nationals. But they’re also just one game back of the second wild-card spot, which happens to be shared by division rival New York Mets. Atlanta is reportedly searching for a top starting pitcher. That’s unusual ground for them – just last year they ranked 4th in MLB in ERA – but some injuries and regression by youngsters have them looking for rotation help. Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Braves are somewhat like the Twins right now, with two solid starters – Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson – followed by a whole lot of finger-crossing. They’ve been linked to just about every possibly available starting pitcher on the market already. That includes Francisco Liriano, since Braves scout Jim Fregosi (which are four words that should get ’93 Phils fans a little worked up) was at Sunday’s game, though he claimed the Braves weren’t interested in Liriano. But the best reason they match up with the Twins isn’t because of what they need as much as what they can offer – young pitching. One of the guys struggling in their rotation right now is 24-year-old left-hander Mike Minor, who is sporting a 6.20 ERA. But last year he struck out 99 batters in 100.2 inning in AAA, and almost matched that 1:1 ratio in 15 games in the majors. There are at least two other major-league-ready young pitchers that could be available for whoever can provide a high-end starter. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins Pay a lot of attention to this next paragraph. Or don't, since I suspect I’m going to be repeating it in a lot of these profiles. It looks like there could be an awful lot of awful good starting pitchers available at the trade deadline this year. Yes, there could be a lot more “buyers” than “sellers,” but there are fewer buyers with the will or need to make a big trade for a starting pitcher. The Brewers are rumored to be fielding calls for both Zach Greinke and (if he gets healthy) Shawn Marcum. The Phillies have started calling teams about Cole Hamels. The Cubs will certainly listen to offers for Matt Garza. Liriano probably slots behind all of those guys and maybe among some other names like Seattle’s Jason Vargas. However, one thing that Liriano does have going for him to facilitate a trade to the Braves: he’s left-handed. Atlanta hasn’t indicated they have a preference, but the Nationals team they’re chasing is hitting just .233 vs southpaws this year, 3rd worst in the majors. Conclusion There are a lot of other teams that would like to add Liriano to their rotation, and there are a lot of other pitchers that could help the Braves. But the Twins and Braves make a good fit both in terms of what is given and what is received. Don’t be surprised if rumors surrounding these two teams get louder as the deadline approaches. Possible Trade Targets Mike Minor – LHP He’s just 24. He’s left-handed. He has very little service time. He was the seventh overall pick in the 2009 draft. And he has struck out 192 in 209 IP in the majors. But he’s sporting a 6.20 ERA this year (5.34 career) and is giving up WAY too many home runs. Sounds like an awfully good fit for Target Field. It’s a little hard to believe the Twins could get him straight up for Liriano, but perhaps they could include their own prospect to balance out the deal? Randall Delgado – RHP Here’s another one of the Braves promising pitching prospects that is struggling in the majors this year. Delgado’s problem this year has been control and that’s never been a particularly strong suit of his. But he’s just 21 years old and was rushed to the majors with only four starts in AAA. He also has 569 Ks in his 538 innings in the minors and a fastball that averaged 92.4 mph last year. Julio Teheran – RHP He’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors with mid-90s stuff – and yet the Braves are looking for outside help? Yep. He’s just 21 years old. His strikeout rate in AAA doesn’t jump off the page and his brief callup last year (5.03 ERA w 10K and 8BB in 19.2 IP) was underwhelming. But again – he’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors. And he’s in AAA. If the Braves don’t want to suffer through his growing pains, I know a team that will be happy to. A few more… Sean Gilmartin - LHP Stop me if this sounds like someone the Twins would like. Last year’s first round pick by the Braves projects as a middle of the rotation starter with outstanding control. The 6’2” southpaw is currently in AA. Zeke Spruill – RHP Also in AA, the 6’5” right-hander is positioning himself for a midyear promotion to AAA. With 63K in 98 IP, he doesn’t have outstanding stuff, but his control could make him a mid-rotation starter. Carlos Perez – LHP Only 19 and only in A-ball (again) and he’s not exactly thriving there. But he’s got a 90mph sinker that, if he can harness it, could rocket him up the ladder. He sounds a little bit like Liriano, actually. Arodys Vizcaino – RHP The 21-year-old fireballer rocketed through the organization to impact Atlanta’s bullpen last year. Unfortunately, it looks like that is his future, and it’s a future at least a year away as he was shelved for Tommy John surgery this March.

Willingham ranks #2 among all MLB hitters in WPA right now. Only Votto has impacted his team more positively than Willingham so far this year. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&players=0

I wonder if it's the players figuring it out or the organization. Adding two dead pull hitters (one via free agency) is looking brilliant this year. The "use the whole park" philosophy might be emphasized a little less throughout the organization given their home field.

I laughed. I did. Out loud.

And if the Phils trade away Victorino, THEY could be interested in Span too as he's under contract in future years. Span might be some teams' preference for that reason over Crisp and Victorino.

I don't know if he would be terrible there, especially in Target Field. But I do have trouble seeing the Twins trust him with right field. I can also see him having trouble feeling comfortable there, and taking those problems to the plate. This year he's played just 4 (of 31) games in the OF. Last year it was 0. But in the minors he had 282 starts there. So it's not like it's totally foreign to him. But he's always been a 1B first, and a RF second.

My personal theory - and this is becoming my go to theory any time Morneau is struggling - is that his wrist hurts again but he's not telling anyone. Sigh. (And no, I don't have any inside information on which that is based.)

Willingham is, IMHO, pretty clearly the Twins MVP this season. He's also 3rd in the majors in WPA - he has had an impact far greater than his already impressive statistics. On the other hand, there are a lot of good outfielders in the AL. So I'll ask... was Willingham not being named to the ASG an injustice?

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?744-Gleeman-the-Geek-Ep-48-SABR-Snubs-and-Selling

Aaron and John talk about Joe Mauer making the All-Star team while Josh Willingham got snubbed, Aaron's vodka-filled experience at the SABR convention in Minneapolis, Ryan Doumit's contract extension, John returning from his East Coast ballpark tour, Trevor Plouffe staying hot, whether the Twins should be in full-on sell mode, the Francisco Liriano dilemma, and why Pizza Luce at 3:00 am is a bad life decision. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John talk about Joe Mauer making the All-Star team while Josh Willingham got snubbed, Aaron's vodka-filled experience at the SABR convention in Minneapolis, Ryan Doumit's contract extension, John returning from his East Coast ballpark tour, Trevor Plouffe staying hot, whether the Twins should be in full-on sell mode, the Francisco Liriano dilemma, and why Pizza Luce at 3:00 am is a bad life decision. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

My best guess is that he might have cleared over $181M, but I think it would have been in the ballpark. $23M/year IS right around Pujolsish money at the time, and that long of a deal (which extended onto his earlier deal, not ripping up the last year) was a very long deal for a catcher. The other issue is that he would have been a free agent after 2010, not 2009. He didn't have as great a year in 2010 and he ended the season really hurt. There's no way to replay 2010 if he's in a contract year, and he may not have ended up the season hurt, but he still would have played it in Target Field. I guess my point is that there was very little hometown discount, if any applied, and I said so at the time. That doesn't mean he's a bad guy, just a shrewd negotiator. If he would have given a big home town discount - say $20M/year instead of $23M - I'm not sure people would be any less critical right now. And there is a reason for that. This winner's curse for this sort of a deal necessitates: you're overpaying. There are 30 teams that are determining your value, but your value isn't the average of what they come up with. It's the value that the most desperate of them comes up with. You can argue whether it is an error giving enormous money to a superstar. But the bigger error is in thinking that a deal like that - and this includes all the talk about the contract Hamels or Grienke is going to get - is EVER going to be worth what is being paid. It's not going to, almost by design.

I don't think they're going to go after any of the premier starting pitchers on the market. They might go after than next level, since there's kind of a glut, but that's where I think have Terry Ryan as a GM works against them. Bill Smith did a nice job of gaming the free agent market. Ryan is too risk adverse. He won't wait for someone to fall to him.

The average OPS of a DH right this year in the AL is 774. That's almost exactly Doumit's career average. So, yeah, he's about a league average DH. But that isn't really my point. My point is that he ISN'T a backup catcher. Backup catchers don't get 500 plate appearances and don't start when the starting catcher is in the lineup and don't have a career OPS of 775. He's an EVERYDAY guy, and just because a good fraction of those days happen to be behind the plate doesn't mean his value is limited to the market of a backup catcher. He really is being used as a DH, only with the very real added benefit of being able to keep Mauer healthy and productive. I'll say it again: I'm surprised he signed this deal. He was 3 months away from hitting the trade market as a switch-hitting catcher with a 775 OPS (in the AL) who finally stayed healthy. I don't think that necessarily means a multi-year deal, but it might have meant a 1-year deal for $4-$6M where he could prove he could do it a second year in a row and get that multi-year deal. Here's another way to look at it: he's a slightly older Kubel, except he can catch quite a bit but looks lost in the OF. Kubel signed for 3/$20M. That's not a perfect comparison, but it's hard to see why one is worth $7M+ per year and one is worth $3.5M+. I'll take the latter.

When my wife, who is a big Phillies fan, heard about this trade, she had a similar reaction: "Yeay! Thome is going to visit here again!" Considering what he did the last time he was here (and seemingly every other time he's visited) I'm a little less excited. :-)

Huh. Now I wonder how that works. I always thought it was by day, too, but if it's by game, and he gets credit for two games, even a better deal for him.

Here's the thing: Doumit isn't a backup catcher. He's a starting DH who can backup at catcher. The Twins could absolutely have gotten another backup catcher at $1M, but he isn't nearly as productive as Doumit. Turns out, the Twins have a guy just like that who they're on the hook for big money for the next few years. They compliment each other perfectly. The other option is going out and buying a backup catcher for a couple of million dollard less, except: - his offensive production likely won't come close to Doumits - it'll put pressure on the Twins to have Mauer start more behind the plate, which risks his production going down and further injury AND - you still have to sign a DH, which isn't an issue next year because of Morneau and Parmelee, but could be the year after. When they signed Doumit in the offseason, I didn't like it. I felt they were better served getting a cheaper platoon partner for Joe because I didn't trust Doumit to keep Butera out of the lineup. But I'm wrong. The Twins catching tandem is top five in the league offensively, even with Butera getting some at-bats. Continuing that for the next two years for $7M is a bargain. And I think it still leave them plenty of money to spend on pitching. I don't think they will, but they still could.

Earlier today I tweeted that I'm as optimistic about Mauer as I've been in years. But before we get too carried away... Those are nice accomplishments. But his overall OPS is 865. That's a nice number, especially for a catcher. Except that he's not a full time catcher. He has 33 starts there out of 75 games. And he has 31 starts at first base or DH. The bottom line, I think, is this: for those that want to compare his performance to his $23M price tag, Mauer is never going to be worth it. And that's because he likely is never going to be worth it. Not unless he adds the same power he had in 2009 and gets bionic hips/knees that allow him to catch 125 times per year. If you need him to be the Baby Jesus to enjoy his game, you're going to be disappointed. You can decide if it's his or the Twins or the media's or your fault that you're disappointed. But for those that can ignore the price tag, he's a hell of a good player most of the time, including right now. And he's also 29. If the Twins can keep him healthy, and if Mauer can keep working on his game, there could be a lot of happy days for him, the Twins and their fans ahead.

In general, I think any thoughts that the Twins are going to pony up the money and years to sign Greinke or Hamels is a little crazy. Greinke could command something like 5yrs/$90M. The Twins aren't going to do that. I don't think the Twins should do that. The Twins view of starting pitching for years has been that it has to be good enough to keep a team in the game, not dominant. I can't imagine them breaking the bank to go against that philosophy.

Thats an interesting point. Will buyers give up less for potential free agents now that thy DON'T get back draft picks when they walk? Not that important for Span, but it is for others. JM$.02, I thnk Span is worth quite a bit. He has the solid D, good OBP, and is a true lead off guy that can play a defensive position. I wrote a story a few weeks ago finding teams & there are even more now.

If Willingham hits or even grounds out to the opposite field, the Twins tie this game up. I'm just saying. Not advancing Mauer lost this.

I like this post. Except for the defensive indifference, I completely agree with thes.

I'm THERE for you, brother!