John Bonnes

COtwin, For future reference, when asking a question, you'll often get a lot more responses if it is posted on one of the forums, like the Twins Talk forum. John

J-Dog, For future reference, this probably would get a lot more feedback if it was posted in the forum instead of in a blog. John

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?821-Gleeman-the-Geek-Ep-51-Trade-Deadline-Rises

Aaron and John talk about Francisco Liriano's fluctuating trade value, whether Denard Span will also be on the move, why Aaron can't make friends, John's mid-life crisis, the Dark Knight Rises, Aaron Hicks' bounceback, and mailbag questions from Twitter. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John talk about Francisco Liriano's fluctuating trade value, whether Denard Span will also be on the move, why Aaron can't make friends, John's mid-life crisis, the Dark Knight Rises, Aaron Hicks' bounceback, and mailbag questions from Twitter. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Dead on.

Wow. That's $24M/year. Holy cow.

That's a good point. I can see one of those guys - Casilla or Valencia - being thrown in as a sweetener in a deal.

I like this idea, but I'm a little confused as to where you got the prospects that were returned and where you got the "average return" you're talking about. Did you look at other trades in the last decade of similar players? If so, I'd love to see the three or four you found for each player. I'd find that interesting, but then I'm a geek.

One more question - are you sure about that CBA "only a sandwich pick" thing? I thought that the team would also get rewarded a pick immediately after (or before) the team that signed the free agent. I thought it was two picks that the team got.

I can't see them trading Valencia. Better to hold onto him and see if anything happens next year. There is no reason to trade him while his value is down, and there is no reason they have to trade him. It's not like he's a free agent. I also can't see them trading Casilla, just because I don't think anyone give up anything for him. Even a team like Detroit, who is supposedly desperate for a second baseman, can't see Casillla as enough of an upgrade to be worth the move. Bottom line: there are just too many other better options.

Only tangentially related, but can we somehow transform Trevor into "The Proof" as a nickname? The it could be Hammer-Proof.

Perhaps... 6. Emulate Terry Ryan - Put on stoic face. Talk about accountability a lot and about getting better. Reveal nothing. Emphasize that it is a team effort, and not just about you. That seems like a pretty solid path for staying sane at the deadline too - even if you really ARE the one under the gun.

I think I agree with Jim - it depends on the art of the deal they work out. It couldn't be a standard deal. There is zero point in investing Aug and Sept innings in this guy just like there is zero point to investing Aug and Sept innings in Liriano - except that at leas Liriano is good. But here's the thing - that is going to be the stance of every team, I would think. So maybe we're not talking about any team really wanting to give him a standard deal. Sign him to a contract with a team option year at $6M or so. If he turns it around, great. If not, he is in the same place he was. At least with the Twins and their wide open rotation, he has the opportunity. If he doesn't want to go that way, forget it.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?804-Trade-Target-Team-Profile-Red-Sox

The Big Picture The Red Sox season has been a mess. Check that – the Red Sox season, offseason and end of last season has been a Hoarders-episode-sized mess. There was last September’s meltdown, firing the coach, firing/losing their GM, naming a new GM, overruling the GM about the new coach, who then alienates several team leaders one of whom ends up being traded…. And they’re still just one game out of BOTH wild card spots. There are a lot of desperate people in Bosox management who are feeling some heat right now. I can’t imagine a group-think that would be riper for a desperate, possibly stupid, trade. Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Red Sox starting pitching is 27th in ERA. Sure enough, the rumor mill has them pursuing several pitchers, including a report from CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman that links them to Francisco Liriano. Liriano makes sense, both because he’s someone they could leverage this year but also because they certainly have the means to entice him to stick around if things work. One could also imagine a sabrmetrically inclined organization coveting Liriano’s 3.62 xFIP. As for the lineup, they're likely set. They rank second in the majors in runs scored and Jacoby Ellsbury just returned. The Red Sox could certainly find room for Denard Span in one of the outfield corners, but if Ellsbury is healthy, they already have an elite leadoff hitter. Their focus is going to be on the rotation. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins They might have a different starting pitcher at the top of their list. Yesterday ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that the Red Sox were “aggressive in the pursuit of Ryan Dempster,” the Cubs right-hander who will be a free agent this offseason. Dempster makes sense for the Red Sox – he’s a veteran having an outstanding year, and the Cubs GM is Theo Epstein, who was the GM of the Red Sox last year. That means the management of these two teams knows each other, which is both good and bad for making a trade. On the one hand, Epstein certainly knows the prospects he would be chasing, and the Red Sox probably have a good idea which of their prospects Epstein likes best. On the other hand, this wasn’t the cleanest breakup in the world. The Red Sox also might be hesitant to deal with a GM that knows their strengths and weaknesses as well as Epstein. Conclusion You can certainly add the Red Sox to the list of possible suitors for Liriano. And even if they do match up better with the Cubs and end up with Dempster, that’s not bad news for the Twins. It means one less high upside pitcher on the trade market, without appreciably shrinking the teams looking for one. Trade Targets Xander Bogaerts – SS It’s unlikely the Twins will land Bogaerts, the top prospect in Boston’s organization, but they’ll ask, and I don’t put anything past Boston’s management team given their recent track record. Bogaerts is as highly touted – maybe even higher – as Miguel Sano. He’s 19 years old, he’s already in High A ball and he’s doing well (.287, 12 HR) there. Plus, he’s a shortstop. He would be a GREAT get. Ryan Lavarnway – C/DH The Red Sox have a 27-year-old catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who has already slugged 17 home runs. They also have a promising AAA 24-year-old catcher available. Lavarnway looks like an IDEAL complement to Joe Mauer. He’s right-handed and has hit for a ton of power (34 HR last year between AA, AAA and the majors). Much the way Doumit has, Lavanrway could play catcher when necessary, but his bat could play anyplace when Mauer is catching. Matt Barnes – RHP Drafted last year, the 22-year-old Barnes has already made his way through Low A and is starting at High A. Even at that level he has 63 K vs 15 BB in 59.1 IP. He’s considered polished with a 93-95 mph fastball and three other pitches. Anthony Ranaudo – RHP Ranaudo deserves mention because he’s 22 years old, put up decent stats in A Ball last year and is arguably the Red Sox second best pitching prospect. But he’s struggled this year and been shut down with shoulder fatigue, so it’s unlikely he would be someone the Twins would (or should) gamble on. Henry Owens – LHP He’s left-handed, 6’ 7”, 19 years old and has 97 K in 68.2 IP in Low A ball. He’s inconsistent, resulting in a 4.72 ERA, but there is a lot of upside here. It would only be fitting if he was part of the package the Twins received for the enigmatic Liriano.

The Big Picture The Red Sox season has been a mess. Check that – the Red Sox season, offseason and end of last season has been a Hoarders-episode-sized mess. There was last September’s meltdown, firing the coach, firing/losing their GM, naming a new GM, overruling the GM about the new coach, who then alienates several team leaders one of whom ends up being traded…. And they’re still just one game out of BOTH wild card spots. There are a lot of desperate people in Bosox management who are feeling some heat right now. I can’t imagine a group-think that would be riper for a desperate, possibly stupid, trade. Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Red Sox starting pitching is 27th in ERA. Sure enough, the rumor mill has them pursuing several pitchers, including a report from CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman that links them to Francisco Liriano. Liriano makes sense, both because he’s someone they could leverage this year but also because they certainly have the means to entice him to stick around if things work. One could also imagine a sabrmetrically inclined organization coveting Liriano’s 3.62 xFIP. As for the lineup, they're likely set. They rank second in the majors in runs scored and Jacoby Ellsbury just returned. The Red Sox could certainly find room for Denard Span in one of the outfield corners, but if Ellsbury is healthy, they already have an elite leadoff hitter. Their focus is going to be on the rotation. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins They might have a different starting pitcher at the top of their list. Yesterday ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that the Red Sox were “aggressive in the pursuit of Ryan Dempster,” the Cubs right-hander who will be a free agent this offseason. Dempster makes sense for the Red Sox – he’s a veteran having an outstanding year, and the Cubs GM is Theo Epstein, who was the GM of the Red Sox last year. That means the management of these two teams knows each other, which is both good and bad for making a trade. On the one hand, Epstein certainly knows the prospects he would be chasing, and the Red Sox probably have a good idea which of their prospects Epstein likes best. On the other hand, this wasn’t the cleanest breakup in the world. The Red Sox also might be hesitant to deal with a GM that knows their strengths and weaknesses as well as Epstein. Conclusion You can certainly add the Red Sox to the list of possible suitors for Liriano. And even if they do match up better with the Cubs and end up with Dempster, that’s not bad news for the Twins. It means one less high upside pitcher on the trade market, without appreciably shrinking the teams looking for one. Trade Targets Xander Bogaerts – SS It’s unlikely the Twins will land Bogaerts, the top prospect in Boston’s organization, but they’ll ask, and I don’t put anything past Boston’s management team given their recent track record. Bogaerts is as highly touted – maybe even higher – as Miguel Sano. He’s 19 years old, he’s already in High A ball and he’s doing well (.287, 12 HR) there. Plus, he’s a shortstop. He would be a GREAT get. Ryan Lavarnway – C/DH The Red Sox have a 27-year-old catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who has already slugged 17 home runs. They also have a promising AAA 24-year-old catcher available. Lavarnway looks like an IDEAL complement to Joe Mauer. He’s right-handed and has hit for a ton of power (34 HR last year between AA, AAA and the majors). Much the way Doumit has, Lavanrway could play catcher when necessary, but his bat could play anyplace when Mauer is catching. Matt Barnes – RHP Drafted last year, the 22-year-old Barnes has already made his way through Low A and is starting at High A. Even at that level he has 63 K vs 15 BB in 59.1 IP. He’s considered polished with a 93-95 mph fastball and three other pitches. Anthony Ranaudo – RHP Ranaudo deserves mention because he’s 22 years old, put up decent stats in A Ball last year and is arguably the Red Sox second best pitching prospect. But he’s struggled this year and been shut down with shoulder fatigue, so it’s unlikely he would be someone the Twins would (or should) gamble on. Henry Owens – LHP He’s left-handed, 6’ 7”, 19 years old and has 97 K in 68.2 IP in Low A ball. He’s inconsistent, resulting in a 4.72 ERA, but there is a lot of upside here. It would only be fitting if he was part of the package the Twins received for the enigmatic Liriano.

I also like this story Glunn. Thanks. I wondered if we couldn't find some better pitchers, so I looked up the top prospects according to Baseball Prospectus. The have four pitchers in tehir top 9 and EVERY ONE of them is injured right now: three with elbow injuries and one who "feels funny." Wow. And we thought we had it bad.

What is UHR? Ultimate Headcase Rating?

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?801-Twins-Scorecard-Excerpt-Stats-Attack

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?798-Gleeman-the-Geek-Ep-50-Waving-the-White-Flag