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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Probably an "eye of the beholder" thing. I don't think Archer is as good as you do so I do think it's giving up on Kepler b/c if he gets better, he's clearly the better player. Yes, this team should improve the starting rotation but it has improved its bullpen and we should expect Berrios to make a stop forward and we'll have decent depth at AAA this year (May, Slegers, Romero, Gonsalves, Jorge to start?). Going from Kepler to Granite or Grossman is a problem. Apparently, the two teams couldn't come to an agreement so it's a moot point anyway.
  2. gunnarthor
    Looking at some of the recent big pitching contracts that have happened, it's hard to predict who will be a disaster and who will work out ok. But a few things are generally pluses. First, if you have a history of being good, you'll probably remain good (until you suck). But the second big issue was durability. Pitchers who can throw innings, year after year, are a safer bet than those who didn't. The third main plus was age - the younger, the better. So I would think Lynn is the safest bet of all these guys. He's not an ace but he could be another Ervin Santana type. A guy who, in his best seasons, could be an all-star.
  3. gunnarthor
    I think the Archer fWAR/bWAR is a bit too polarizing. I don't think either number is correct - bWAR doesn't give enough credit for all those innings, fWAR is too forgiving overall. He's a good pitcher and I do want him. But I don't want to give up some of these rumored packages. The last couple years we've seen Archer give up more HRs and become even more fly-ball prone. That's not ideal. I'm not sure I'd want to give up on Kepler this early. For whatever reason, his babip the last two years has been surprisingly low. He had an amazing season at AA just a few years ago. He should be better than what we've seen. Maybe the answer is just having Molitor platoon him. I dunno. But there is an argument where Kepler, by himself, is the better player over the next four years so I think the Twins are probably right to not overpay for Archer.
  4. gunnarthor
    I like him a lot. It's nice to have a OF slugger in our system again. Arcia didn't quite make it and I think he was last true OF slugger we had in our system. Looks like Kiriloff might project to do a bit more offensively than Arcia. I think both the fangraphs guys and Mayo in his recent questions answered have mentioned Kiriloff as a guy who could jump up the lists next year.
  5. gunnarthor
    I wouldn't but I'm the low man on Archer.
  6. gunnarthor
    I'd assume he's just AAA depth. Grossman is a better option.
  7. gunnarthor
    Maybe. Maybe they think this isn't the time to go all-in. I dunno. I'm not thrilled with this FO trading away Kintzler last year so I'm not the best judge of how they judge the talent on the roster. I figured this offseason would show us a lot more about how the FO will work. I'll stand by that but it's getting pretty close to the end.
  8. gunnarthor
    Narrative. It might also be that smart baseball people think that the path the Ryan was going down was the correct one. These guys might do things slightly differently (they seemed to push DL trips more) but the general plan is probably the same as long as they have significant payroll constraints. The Twins were a playoff team last year and we should expect Berrios to be better and the bullpen clearly is. Gonsalves and Romero are close to helping now. Maybe they don't see Archer as importantly as some posters do.
  9. gunnarthor
    I dunno. Put Gausman in TF and and our OF and he might be pretty good.
  10. gunnarthor
    That's my thinking. He's **** but I'm pretty sure agencies have helped in these things.
  11. gunnarthor
    https://deadspin.com/lawsuit-baseball-agency-made-under-the-table-payments-1822949821
  12. gunnarthor
    Trade for Gausman or Degrom or Odorizzi or sign Cobb or bring up our young arms. I don't think you throw away your system for a guy like Archer. Some of us are really overrating him. He's a fly ball pitcher who plays in a great pitcher's park, has had some of the best OF defenses behind him. I agree with others, he's not an ace but his contract makes him worth more. Give a solid fair offer and move on. Which sounds like what the Twins did a couple weeks ago.
  13. gunnarthor
    Is it based just on defense? Link?
  14. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I'm pretty sure the Twins had a list of guys that they were going to offer overslot money to at the start of Day 2. Enlow was a good one to nab, and I'm glad we have him, but I doubt the Twins planned to have that specific player there as opposed to knowing they'd have a handful of solid draft prospects available. *And maybe Enlow was #1 on their wish list of those guys.
  15. gunnarthor
    His strike outs are a concern but he does draw some walks. We also have to accept that the game is changing and strike outs are that big of problem anymore. We're probably not going to see to many modest strike out sluggers anymore.
  16. gunnarthor
    He's certainly exciting.
  17. gunnarthor
    We'll see, I guess.
  18. gunnarthor
    Moving Kepler and adding Archer moves our payroll to 111m or so. I'm not sure how much Gomez would cost but Cobb is at least 12m/yr and probably a lot more. I don't think we're that kind of payroll. I would guess with Granite, Grossman and Wade the Twins would find someone to hold the fort over Gomez. Maybe we don't add Cobb and add a 4m OFer who can slug but not field? I dunno. I just think we're close to our payroll limit already.
  19. gunnarthor
    There's no way they do all that
  20. gunnarthor
    No, I'm sure positional scarcity comes into this and the Rays are going to demand a big return. The concern is that he's not worth it and we end up making another Garza/Young trade in reverse. I truly don't know how to value Archer. I don't think he deserves a Quintana, Sale etc type return. I don't think he's an ace. I think he's durable (really important) and he's benefited the last couple years from giving up fewer HRs than expected. I don't think he keeps that up, especially at TF.
  21. gunnarthor
    Kepler is cheaper, younger and has more years of control. Archer strikes guys out and is durable but that's about it. By bWAR, Kepler is better. fWAR, which relies on fip, likes Archer a lot more. Archer has been pitching in a very good pitchers park in front of a very good defense. I think bWAR is probably a bit closer to the truth but our FO better have a pretty good understanding of them.
  22. gunnarthor
    I'm willing to risk it
  23. gunnarthor
    Couldn't hurt
  24. gunnarthor
    80m? I'd probably say yes in the next three years. Nine figures? No. Not until we get different owners.
  25. gunnarthor
    Since that didn't happen in the Ryan era either, I'd say the best case scenario is winning the world series. We have an incredible nucleus of talent right now with some decent AA/AAA depth behind it. Yeah, I'm bummed but I never expected ownership to step up. This team will win b/c of development and trades. We still might make a trade, who knows. But we aren't going to sign guys like Darvish. It's too expensive and too risky for the Twins. It looks like the FO did a nice job of improving the bullpen and they probably aren't done yet with the rotation but it'll probably be a smaller move than we all are hoping for.
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