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USAFChief

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Everything posted by USAFChief

  1. USAFChief
    He’s also clearly over the hill. And no better than Matt Moore, or Jeremy Hellickson.
  2. USAFChief
    Sad. Such a great hitter.
  3. USAFChief
    That chasm isn’t going to close by itself, either.
  4. USAFChief
    ?? Usually, the simplest explanation is the one to default to. This is about nothing but Cleveland deciding, for the second time, that Belisle couldn’t help them.
  5. USAFChief
    Dozier currently has a 100 OPS+, with every reason to believe that will improve...he's been above that number in each of the past four seasons. He's healthy, and durable, and not old. He's currently the third most valuable Twin if you believe in bWAR. His salary isn't out of line, or particularly big. He's had a down season so far, but he hasn't been terrible. Value close to zero? I don't think that's even close to true.
  6. USAFChief
    That strikes me as what Cleveland did. The pen was falling apart, so they ejected what they viewed as the weakest link. Usually, the simplest explanation is the one to default to.
  7. USAFChief
    We should've signed the guy three from the left.
  8. USAFChief
    Another arm to throw the Marlins way in a Realmuto deal, no doubt.
  9. USAFChief
    eh...I don't consider Vegas futures odds to be based on reality. In general, sure, the Yankees are a better team, and more likely to win the AL. But there's more to it than that. Coupled with the reality that it's baseball, it's mid June, and it's not really possible, for anyone, to say much definitively about the 2018 season.
  10. USAFChief
    Mostly true. For things like futures bets, they are trying to balance the actual probabilities of winning the event, with the reality that more people bet on certain teams, with the need for betters to place bets on long shots. There are more betters willing to lay money on the Yankees than the Twins, for example. In Vegas, they also have to factor the amount of betters who live in California, and are inclined to bet on California (particularly Southern California) teams. They set futures odds while considering all those factors, and try to arrive at a number that will both generate betting action, and provide cover for the possibility of a long shot winning. Enough bets on the Yankees at 3-2, Houston at 5-2, and the Angels at 7-1 covers the possibility of the Twins winning at 60-1, for example, and vice versa. They absolutely want people betting on the Twins, the Rays, the Pirates, etc, and will extend longer than actual odds if necessary to generate action. They don't want to end up in a situation where too much money is on the favorite, which of course means the book is exposed if the favorite wins. It's not as precise and linear as "Twins -110 over Detroit" or "Vikings -3.5pts vs Lions," where they absolutely want the same money bet on both teams, but there is still some thought placed on generating action and limiting exposure.
  11. USAFChief
    Concur, barring injury or complete tank the rest of the season. And I'd welcome him back on a 1 yr deal. Money isn't an issue next year and if I'm betting who's the better player next year, Gordon or Dozier, I'd lay 10-1 on Dozier.
  12. USAFChief
    He could lose some weight, stay on the field, recognize a pitch every now and again, and produce. That'd change the status quo for me.
  13. USAFChief
    There isn’t a realistic trade out there that would move the needle more in the next couple years than going from what the Twins have at catcher to Realmuto. Nobody is trading you as big an upgrade over the Twins current corner OFers provide, as what Realmuto provides, particularly considering defense. Aaron Judge would be a great trade, and a huge upgrade over Kepler. Who’s trading someone like that? And anyway, all the Twins needed to do was add a lefty masher to spell Rosario/Kepler and they’d have had their difference maker.
  14. USAFChief
    winnah. I guess.
  15. USAFChief
    But they make up for the low batting average by having no power.
  16. USAFChief
  17. USAFChief
    I'll cut the cost of the nominal fee from the subscription fee. I'm a pretty reasonable guy. Also: consider a new bank.
  18. USAFChief
    Indeed they are, wsnydes, indeed they are. 1. Take them to a bank. 2. Exchange them for small, unmarked, unsequential bills. 3. Mail said bills to USAFChief, Tucson, AZ.
  19. USAFChief
    Those things seem mutually exclusive.
  20. USAFChief
    He Caved in THAT fastball!
  21. USAFChief
    Cash accepted. Small, unmarked, nonsequential bills only.
  22. USAFChief
    Cave, 2 r HR. As expected.
  23. USAFChief
    Dunno. Nobody has ever asked that question before.
  24. USAFChief
    Not for nothing...the 100th GT post today.
  25. USAFChief
    OPS higher than Garver, Grossman, and Morrison coming in to today. Which says more about those three than Adrianza, IMO.
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