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USAFChief

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Everything posted by USAFChief

  1. USAFChief
    Not to mention the argument presented is circular anyway: "We need pitching, but we don't have enough pitching to go out and get pitching."
  2. USAFChief
    Gordon and Jay, plus a throw in? Pull the trigger already.
  3. USAFChief
    concur.
  4. USAFChief
    Castro was signed Nov 30, Santana Dec 15.
  5. USAFChief
    I'm going to assume Ash was referring to starting out with the first pick in the draft and ending up with the 8th pick, for no apparent benefit.
  6. USAFChief
    Not to speak for drjim, but I assume he listed the five teams he assumes make the postseason, including division winners. Hence both Boston and New York listed, as well as Houston and LAA. There are five spots, and technically div winners are also WC competition.
  7. USAFChief
    The criticism, at least from me, has nothing to do with all in. Nor, about the eventual result. My criticism: misunderstanding the Twins chances of making the postseason, and what that would be worth when weighed against the small influx of marginal talent they got for weakening those chances. Edit: or what birdwatcher said, much better than me.
  8. USAFChief
    If your firm actually believes someone can predict baseball with enough certainty to put much stock in a website’s “5%” number, I’m guessing you don’t get much repeat business. And speaking of “5%;”. My personal belief is that number wildly overestimates the chances the “gain in assets” actually helping future contention.
  9. USAFChief
    It would be fair to say they traded pitching only because they decided they had zero chance at the postseason. Since that was not true, it’s fair to say trading away pitching was a blunder, and I absolutely believe Falvine would say the same. Whether or not they actually made the postseason is irrelevant to the decision, as are postseason results. To put it in your poker terms, folding after the flop, when pot odds indicate you should call, is a blunder, regardless the turn and river.
  10. USAFChief
    1. The fact they DID make is not an argument supporting trading AWAY pitching at the deadline. It's exactly the opposite. Clearly, Falvine misjudged the team at the time. I'd bet a lot of money, if they could have somehow known where the team would sit one month later, they would NOT have traded either pitcher. 2. Adding talent would always be secondary to a playoff spot. Always. And for the record, I don't agree they've added "quite a bit" anyway. I'd certainly advocate "buy" any time the Twins are in the position they were in last July...in contention for a spot. I care 100 times more about a current chance in hand than about the chance a relatively nondescript minor leaguer or two are added to the system and might one day amount to more than a trivia answer. For the record, I'm certainly not advocating firing them. I'm more than happy to give them time, acknowledge I like some of the behind the scenes stuff they've done (although it's pretty tough to prove the effectiveness of that, one way or the other), and have high hopes they'll one day actually "crush it." But IMO they certainly haven't done so yet, and certainly erred last July.
  11. USAFChief
    Count me as 100% agreeing the deadline blunders were indeed, blunders. The Twins had been in contention for a playoff spot all season long. The FO traded FOR help just a week before trading away pitching. Regardless what happened after that point--whether events played out as they did, or the team failed to make the playoffs--not bolstering the team's chances was a blunder. I really don't understand any argument otherwise. The goal is not "adding talent." The goal is winning.
  12. USAFChief
    Concur. Even if you like what little they've done..."crushing it"?? c'mon.
  13. USAFChief
    And let's see what he does in 2018 before worrying about signing him for 2019. 2017 was his first 800 OPS since 2013, and he just barely made that.
  14. USAFChief
    As noted above, I did not say a playoff spot was an obvious outcome. I said they were clearly in the chase for a playoff spot. Which they were, and had been all season. As for Fangraph's "playoff odds"... well, let's just say that's a pretty dubious number. Obviously.
  15. USAFChief
    A lot of those things had been going right from April 1st to late July. There was no need to try to guess whether or not the Twins were in a chase for a playoff spot. They clearly were, and had been all season. Things would have had to go wrong for them NOT to stay in contention, rather than the other way around.
  16. USAFChief
    Whether or not the Twins actually won the 2nd WC, or didn't, is NOT the point. The point is, they were in contention, should have recognized that, and didn't. That's what ultimately matters.
  17. USAFChief
    Hughes will surprise me if he throws one pitch for the 2018 MN Twins, but stranger things have happened.
  18. USAFChief
    "...The playoff run was surprising." Maybe when viewed from the perspective of last March, but by July they had been in the hunt for a playoff spot since day 1 of the season, and one week in late July doesn't change that equation. Falvine didn't just wake up one morning in late July, read the STrib, and discover "Holy cow...we're IN this??" In fact, they traded FOR help one week earlier. "...it's not like we didn't make the playoffs." This is not a point in favor of your argument, or in favor of Falvine's actions. This is a point AGAINST their actions. The fact they made the postseason in spite of Falvine trading away pitching is just more proof they misread the situation badly. They clearly should have been trying to boost the team's chances, not reduce them. "...did we lose games we would have won with Jaime or Kinz?" This is after the fact reasoning, and also completely misses the point. "...Houston or Cleveland would have ousted us..." Again, completely misses the point. The bottom line is...Falvine misread the situation, and traded from, not to, a team in contention for the postseason. That's a mistake, and I believe they both would privately admit the same.
  19. USAFChief
    The 8 or 9 pitch AB happens a lot for pitch to contact pitchers, too. Actually more IMO. They can’t get strike three past a hitter, leading to lots of foul balls and long ABs. Typically, the guy starting the 5th inning with 82 pitches isn’t the guy with 7 K’s at that point, it’s the guy with 2. The error in analytics is not in thinking K’s are a positive for pitchers. Rather, the error is in thinking K’s aren’t a negative for hitters. As Ash notes above, an out is NOT an out. Nobody ever knocked in a run on a K.
  20. USAFChief
    I stand corrected. 29 MLB teams, not 30.
  21. USAFChief
    True, but He’s reached 200 IP every season of at least 32 starts. I guess he could regress badly, but IMO if he makes 32 starts, he’ll get 200 innings.
  22. USAFChief
    But that’s part of the attraction of Ohtani. Ohtani will be treated like any other MLB player who comes up from your system. The same as Berrios, for example. Three years of serfdom, followed by three years of arbitration-eligibility. He could be extended, but doesn’t HAVE to be extended. There is zero salary commitment over and above what ANY rookie gets. He can’t be a FA sooner than when ANY rookie can be. Are you sorry the Twins spent $6m on a signing bonus for Buxton, and now have to worry about paying him? $3m on Sano? EVERY team in MLB would sign him if he said yes.
  23. USAFChief
    We should all hope Santana reaches 200 IP in 2018. If he does, he was healthy and made 32+ starts.
  24. USAFChief
    Obtain CAN'T get too much money. He'll be playing for the MLB minimum.
  25. USAFChief
    Cody don't know who's on third.
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