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alarp33

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Everything posted by alarp33

  1. alarp33
    You are definitely right with your 1st sentence... but the 2nd one, Kyle Gibson is below avg? According to what? His era+ last year was 108, and he was 15 in the AL among starters in WAR. He's a solid #3 starter.
  2. alarp33
    Thanks. Not sure if its sample size (only last 5 years) or what, but I found the number to be more like 2-5% everywhere else. This is one document I found which was interesting. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN680Hq-FDVsCwvN-3AazykOBON0/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=0 PS; 10,000+ pitchers in the Minors and Majors over the past 5 seasons... I mean that can't be right, can it? Super simple way of looking at it, but say the Twins have 4 Milb teams (not sure if they count rookie ball), and their major league team. Say 14 pitchers per team which is generous. That's 70 pitchers in the Twins org., 2,100 in all of baseball. In just 5 years that turned over 5 times? Are they counting a pitcher like Hughes for example each year? Since 2010, there have been 10,000+ pitchers in the majors and minors combined.
  3. alarp33
    Last year Keith Law had Mondesi ranked as the 38th prospect in baseball, and Jorge Polanco unranked... this year Mondesi is 73 and Polanco is 66. Interesting.
  4. alarp33
    Where did you get that data? I can't find anything to support that.... I read one comprehensive list of all TJ surgeries and found 68 players who had 2... about 5% of all the TJ's done. Also found this (from a few years ago); "Yes. 2-4% of pitchers undergo a second Tommy John surgery, often called a UCL revision. There have been fewer studies of players with revisions, but those have shown that these pitchers also are able to return to play at a high rate, though often in a reduced role." "A 2012-2013 survey of active players found that 25% of Major League pitchers and 15% of Minor League pitchers had undergone Tommy John surgery at some point in their careers."
  5. alarp33
    I suspect you are very wrong. If both are healthy, Buxton has > 500 PA in ML, Berrios makes > 25 starts
  6. alarp33
    .320 would be a 31 point improvement, not a 20, fyi. His 2014 OBP in the minors was .284 as well, this wasn't new And you're right, if he can get on base at a .320+ clip, he will be a valuable player. Until he proves hes capable of that, he's very replaceable.
  7. alarp33
    There really aren't many, most of the top prospects close to or in the Majors to start the year are from the NL. Joey Gallo, who the Rangers don't have a spot in the lineup for. A.J. Reed for Hou, Blake Snell for TB
  8. alarp33
    I'm not going to defend Plouffe, as I have said from the start I would trade him for whatever you can get. But you are very much cherry picking Rosario stats. Yes, his ops was .748... his OBP was .289, if he had a few more plate appearances to qualify, this would've been 4th worst in the American League. As the other poster said, triples are fluky. Rosario is a fun player to watch, but the fact remains if he doesn't figure out how to get on base, he's a good 4th outfielder.
  9. alarp33
    I can't tell if this is a real comment or not. You do realize Rosario got on base an unheard of 10% (.289 vs .385) less often than Sano, right?
  10. alarp33
    Like Carlos Correa last year?? Or Meyers, Trout... 3 of the last 4 AL rookies of the year didn't start the season in the Majors.
  11. alarp33
    Yeah, but I don't see the need to lock up a 4th Ofer for 6 years guaranteed, even if the money isn't THAT big. I'm totally willing to gamble on locking up Buxton/ Sano, because the ceilings are so high, and I think at minimum each become good Major leaguers. If Buxton or Sano have big seasons in 2016, their extension numbers could become huge... which is why you gamble and attempt to get either done now. If (A big If) Rosario can figure out how to get on base this year... say .315-.325 OBP, I don't think you're risking that much money by not completing an extension now... it will be the 1st time he's gotten on base since A ball.
  12. alarp33
    Jepsen. NO Sano. Of course, but he's not going to sign a contract like that.
  13. alarp33
    3 years, $9 million for Escobar? Sure, why not. If Gordon or someone else are ready before that expires, Escobar is trade bait, or if he regresses, a fine backup IFer at $3million a year. Rosario. No... I don't think he's even a full time starter by August (Kepler).
  14. alarp33
    Alex Rodriguez signed for $25m a year as a free agent. Certainly you can see the difference between that, and Trout signing with 4+years to go before Free agency. Bryce Harper appears more than willing to wait for FA, and the speculation is $40/year is on the low end of where his contract will start.
  15. alarp33
    Technically his proposal is 7 years $36 million (if option is exercised), where he gets $13 million in his 1st year of FA... so if he does become a good player... I do think its possible he could be looking at something like $46 million for his 3 arb years and year 1 of FA. (Arb 1 $5, Arb 2 $8, Arb 3 $13, FA 1 $20)... If he becomes a superstar, all bets are off the table what that FA year 1 is worth.
  16. alarp33
    Agree on Perkins On Buxton - If he is just Vince Coleman at the plate, with his defense he would outperform the 6 years $24 million proposed.... Coleman was worth 12 WAR his 1st 6 years in the Majors. If he's much better than Vince Coleman, which is likely... you would be saving a significant amount of money by extending him now... I still think he would turn down the extension listed above.
  17. alarp33
    "And that leaves Pelfrey. It’s easy to use hindsight to say that Pelfrey sucked late in the season but at the time the Twins made the change, he was pitching better than May" Pelfrey pitched 35 innings in June, struck out 16, walked 13 and had a 5.35 era... and was a FA after the year they (hopefully) had no intention of bringing back. May in June: 24 innings 24 k's, 6 walks, 3.7 era (includes the 1/3 inning start in milwaukee). May's last start before the Pen was July 1 (6.1 innings, 6 k's, 1 er)
  18. alarp33
    You left out Max Kepler. The Twins would be better with Vielma in the lineup than Kepler? I would argue the Kepler lineup would be better defensively, as you don't have Sano in OF any longer.
  19. alarp33
    Ha. So the Rays extended Longoria for 6 whole years because he had a few hits in the 6 days he had spent in the Majors? Ok.
  20. alarp33
    "Laughable" Evan Longoria was signed for 6 years $17.5 million by the Rays a week into his rookie year. His 35.2 WAR those 6 seasons was worth $235 million to the Rays
  21. alarp33
    Certainly fair, but once Buxton accomplishes something at the ML level those numbers he proposed could very easily be doubled as a starting point. I think Buxton is going to be a star, I wouldn't hesitate to give him that deal today. I would guess he would bet on himself and not sign that.
  22. alarp33
    1- Are you assuming he doesn't end up at 3b? 2- If you believe he will be at least as good of 2b as Dozier, I'm not sure why you would trade him as he's 6 years younger and will be significantly cheaper for awhile. He also fits this lineup better as its presently constructed (say, if they plan on Plouffe being the 3b for the next few years at least). Lots of RH bats 3- It's probably likely Dozier would have more value if you are going to trade him this year.
  23. alarp33
    And as for Dozier's final 3 months? Should we pretend that didn't happen? As for Dozier vs Polanco, I was more so arguing this; "Sell high" should only be referenced if at least one of the following criteria is met: 1. The team has no expectation of winning enough baseball games to matter 2. The team has a viable replacement at the position who can step in and won't sacrifice (multiple) wins in the short-term" Not your argument about the better hitter today. I think Polanco could be a nearly comparable player as soon as mid season, and if you can get a high end bullpen piece and prospect for Dozier, you think long and hard about it (The Twins won't, its not their way... but I would)
  24. alarp33
    Well for one, Polanco is 22. Generally guys gain power as they get bigger and stronger. Will he hit 20+ home runs? Doubtful, but if he hits a bunch of doubles and gets on base at a .250 clip he'll be a pretty damn good hitter. The question isn't, is Polanco a better hitter than Dozier today. It's, is the team better with Polanco + Whatever is acquired in a trade, vs Dozier. That is a decent argument, and after Dozier's 2nd half collapse I think "selling high" is more than fair to discuss. Lots of people on this board have pointed to Escobars numbers in the 2nd half, some in an argument he should be a leadoff option... if we are going to cherry pick those numbers, fair to discuss these as well? July - .206/.282/.433 August - .216/.275/.387 September - .200/.280/.309
  25. alarp33
    This. OPS is a flawed stat because it gives equal weight to OBP and SLG.. OBP is far more important in the scheme of things
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