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alarp33

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Everything posted by alarp33

  1. alarp33
    7 years at $17 million per (w/ deferrals after that) is absurd? I'm sure they would have preferred 5 years, but with the way salaries are trending paying Chris Davis $17 million in 2022 will be nothing.
  2. alarp33
    This is the formula used I believe, I think the .285 number can changed, as its based off of runs scored per game across the league.... Not positive on that W% = RS^x/(RS^x + RA^x) Where x = ((RS + RA)/G)^.285 Base runs had the Twins at 73 wins last year, so those 64 runs of cluster luck worked out to an additional 10 wins
  3. alarp33
    "The Power Rank calculates cluster luck by using the Base Runs formula to compare actual runs scored and runs allowed to expected runs scored and runs allowed." If I understand it correctly, the Base Runs formula says the Twins should have scored 33 less runs, and given up 31 more runs than they did in 2015.
  4. alarp33
    It's a very real thing. https://thepowerrank.com/cluster-luck/ The Twins benefited on Offense and Defense quite a bit. This can explain how the Twins were 15th in the AL in OBP, and 12th in Slugging, yet scored the 8th most runs.
  5. alarp33
    Cleveland seems like a logical landing spot for Dexter Fowler - if they sign him I would go as far as to say they are favorites in the Central
  6. alarp33
    Like the other poster said, I'm not ranking who I would have rather had in 2015. I'm not sold on Rosario's bat, hope I am wrong. Also, what was the Twins DH OPS+ Pre-Sano (Sano is not the DH anymore)? Park may hit 25-30 Home Runs, he also may not make the roster out of Spring and have a tough adjustment.
  7. alarp33
    It looks a little different when you don't combine OF into 1 position, and 2b+3B into one.... C- Draw/ Lean White Sox 1B - White Sox 2B- Twins SS- Twins 3B- White Sox LF- White Sox (Cabrera over Rosario) CF- White Sox (I think Buxton is going to breakout this year, but Eaton is proven) RF- Twins DH - Who knows I should note, I'd take the Twins lineup... but I'm not sure about the clear cut advantage you think they have.
  8. alarp33
    1st part is correct, but O'Rourke was very impressive vs lefties. .171/.292/.268 slash line vs lefties. The problem is he's a LOOGY in the truest sense of the term
  9. alarp33
    May has given them absolutely no reason to give up on him as a starter. I think Meyer is a little different case, since with his height its always been a question about whether he could start long term. That being said, if they don't plan on using him in the Major League bullpen early in the year, I hope they let him start for a few months in AAA
  10. alarp33
    Ha, I posted nearly the same thing before seeing this. Not sure when the "many successful seasons" from Hughes were
  11. alarp33
    Several years of success as a starter? Can you tell me which years those are? ERA+ By Year; 2007 - 102 2008 - 67 2009 - 152 (reliever) 2010 - 103 2011 - 74 2012 - 101 2013 - 77 2014 - 111 2015 - 94 FIP has not been below 4.50 in 4 of the past 5 years 2014 is pretty clearly the outlier
  12. alarp33
    If Phil Hughes wasn't given that nonsensical extension 1 year into a 3 year deal, wouldn't the logical decision be to move him to the bullpen, and let May start? Hughes has been a good reliever in the past, and has far less upside in the rotation
  13. alarp33
    He only needs to be in the minors for something like 2 weeks for the Twins to gain an extra year of control, with 2 off days in the 1st 2 weeks, they really wouldn't even necessarily need a 5th starter more than once before promoting Berrios. But, with all the options available that's unlikely to happen until sometime in May, when someone is injured or ineffective
  14. alarp33
    I have to be honest. I did not expect to come across anyone in 2016 banging the drum for Ryan Sweeney to be the CFer over the #1 prospect in baseball. Any relation to the Sweeney's?
  15. alarp33
    I think we just have a different definition of "floor". You certainly could be right about the projections being off, and 78-80 wins may be a good guess going into the year. The floor is that they don't stay as healthy as last year, Perkins, Doziers 2nd half struggles carry over, instead of being #2 in baseball in "cluster luck" they fall to #29, etc. There are enough question marks on this team, the division could potentially be the best in baseball, I would say the floor is somewhere around 68-70 wins.
  16. alarp33
    Calling Duffey a high upside young arm is a pretty loose usage of that term. And while I'd like to see May in the rotation, it sounds like that really is not even a possibility at this point.
  17. alarp33
    A Win total in the upper 70's is a pessimistic floor??!? On paper, this team is the 4th or 5th best one in their own division. That doesn't mean they can't surpass any projections, but a pessimistic floor might be 68-70 wins. How many innings can possibly go to high-upside young arms, considering in terms of rotation they only have 1 of those who will likely reach the majors this year in Berrios?
  18. alarp33
    He's almost 30 and signed to a fairly low deal - its not like some uber prosect we're talking about. Obviously if Park mashes from Day 1 you aren't putting him in a true platoon - I'm more talking about as he adjusts to Major League pitching.
  19. alarp33
    Arcia's platoon should be with Park as he adjusts to the Majors. With Gardenhire I would have no faith in this happening, with Molitor I'm at least semi optimistic.
  20. alarp33
    Suzuki's biggest problem is he's just not very good.
  21. alarp33
    Gibson, Santana, Hughes are the only real locks in the rotation IMO, May should be one, but they seem to prefer getting 80 innings from him instead of 200. Hopefully I'm wrong on Duffey, but he's far from a sure thing. They should have cut bait with Nolasco by now. Milone could've been moved. Plenty of ways to get a potential steal of a Free Agent into this rotation, and still have room for Berrios.
  22. alarp33
    Doug Fister just got 1 year, $7 million from the Astros. If last year was a fluke, I think its fair to he would've been the unquestioned Ace of this staff. That being said, looking forward to seeing more Nolasco, Milone, etc.
  23. alarp33
    Ha - if you think trading for a backup Catcher (that is what he will be this year, it is not the "Twins way" to sit a veteran in Suzuki down) and taking a flyer on a guy who may very well end up being the teams 3rd or 4th best option at DH ( I don't think that will be the case, but its very possible).. is 2 fairly big deals... i dont know what to tell you
  24. alarp33
    Offseason ways to improve club 1) FA signings 2) Trades The Twins chose none of the above. There were plenty of ways to improve this roster, beyond just straight up FA signings... but it would have taken money, something the Pohlads seem unwilling to spend, and creativity with the roster, something Terry Ryan seems incapable of. They could have; Cut bait with Nolasco, take on half his salary or more and give him away. He doesn't want to be here, the roster spot could be better used elsewhere. My proposal - Offer Doug Fister 1 year, $12/ million w/ incentives. Berrios will still be next man up They could have; Traded Plouffe - it's been beaten to death, but he makes very little sense with this current roster. Sano to 3B, Arcia in a platoon to start the year with cheap FA who can hit lefties. This also would have opened up the possibility of Alex Gordon, Cespedes, etc. The market seemed to undervalue these guys, would have been worth looking into. When Kepler is ready in May/June, you can flip Rosario (who I'm personally not sold on yet) Instead, they signed A DH, the one position they already had plenty of options at.
  25. alarp33
    "Is it enough to offset the combined 7.5-ish WAR they lost in Cespedes and Price?" If you want to look at it that simply, sure. Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmerman had a combined 7.9 WAR last year.
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