ShouldaCouldaWoulda

My gut tells me the Twins should take a college arm that is closer to being ready. It would be nice for our prospects to come up all around the same time, and to have options for the fact some just won't pan out. Want someone who will be coming up a year or two after Meyers, Berrios, and May have built some experience. And with same groups as Stewart and Thorpe, and other. Just my thoughts, and thought it would be a good strategy to draft HS talent for a few years, and then college talent for a few years. That way you have 4-5 years of talent all around the same age and gelling together. Then, restart that process. Of course, best available should be taken, if it's obvious.

Seems like some of these teams have begun to realize the high chances of injury to pitchers, and that some might be more prone due to build and mechanics. Seems that most of these guys peak velocity while still young. Many teams are bringing up arms early, and I'm wondering if they know it's just not worth holding off service time, while you can be using them while they still are electric. You can learn in the majors what you learn at AAA or AA, and you can fail at both. Berrios seems like a likely future injury in the waiting due to his stuff and size. My personal opinion in this day in age and service system, is to bring up arms the second they can can get outs in the majors, while waiting on the bats until ready. Young pitchers can be flipped after young success and let someone else deal with their decline in velicity and injuries. The A's were on to this years back already. Look at all the young pitchers showing success in the majors, without much upper level seasoning.

His 2013 was very impressive indeed. His 2012 debut, was good, but not spectacular. Yes, he was battling injuries, but it wasn't like he just had 50 at bats last year. He had almost 200 at bats between A+ and the Arizona Fall Leauge. He didn't hit well at either, combined at barely over .240 avg and barely over .300 OBP. Just saying, what if that isnt all due to injury? I think the kid will be good...just not sure how good, or how soon we will see this. Pumping the breaks is all. Definitely rooting for him and think he CAN rediscover his 2013 form, but it certainly isn't guaranteed to happen. Glad to see he had a good day though, even if it was against shady pitchers, and got caught stealing.

What is the general feeling on Santana's defense so far by you guys? He seems erratic and scatterbrained to me. Maybe I'm not seeing things right though. I have a gut feeling that Buxton will be held down all year, or until September. Santana to CF and Escobar back to SS seems like it might be necessary, whether the Twins want to or not. Guessing Santana's defense will get better throughout the season, but just much better?

I love Buxton, though I am very concerned he might not be what we all thought he might be. Very much rooting for him and also seems like a good kid. Keep in mind his hits came off of Mikey O'Brien and Jhan Marinez. Those two don't have much recent success. This game is also a small sample size, just like the games before this. His first season, was also just one season of succes. Recent history isn't great. However, I agree with you and feel that he will adjust and be pretty good...just don't know HOW good. Let's hope.

Those last two hits to the OF sure highlight the Twins horrible OF defense. Both those balls are caught by average left and right feilders. Arica also made that last out look difficult, when it was quite routine.

I think that the one thing that we need to keep in mind is the tendency for people in general to talk about things that are good/bad, and average does not worth speaking on. The Twins honestly objectively don't have a lot to positively speak about at the major league level, while there is plenty of bad standing out. That can be someone who is perfectly well adjusted, yet openly self-deprecating in a good natured way. Or, the way we are able to see the flaws or lacking areas in our most loved/liked ones, yet still like and love them. I LOVE the Twins! It is the only MN team that I have never just stopped watching or rooting for in any season, even though I openly critique them. I do not feel bad about voicing their (glaring) faults these past several years. It is normal and healthy. I think that many of us who are negative at times, are or have also been very positive too, but just feel the "It is all going to be awesome very soon" is wearing on everyone, and maybe its time to even question if that looks to be so certain with the stumbles and injuries of our prospects and the competitiveness of the other teams in the division. I am excited for baseball and I am excited to watch the Twins, but I was expecting a bad season this year. Honestly, there might be one or two more after this, unless all these young guys pan out. Thing is, these guys cannot expect to produce right away without MLB experience. The longer we keep these guys down...the further we push all of their learning curves back, which in turn prolongs the losing. May and Meyer are not young prospects, and they aren't just going to suddenly not walk guys with any consistency in AAA. They are who they are at this point, and anything they can adjust in AAA can be adjusted in the show. We are wasting their innings and risking injuries where they do not count for anything. We have too many decent young guys with similar profiles, in that they have big bats and big bodies, bad plate discipline and contact, with no range or gloves. Arcia, Pinto, Vargas, and Sano. Mauer is also blocking these guys at an ideal spot to place one of them, and Pino just isn't realistically ever going to learn to be a league average catcher...or anything close. I like, if not love, all of those young hitters, but they do not fit well together, and we need to recognize that is a problem. SS? Santana and Escobar. Are they both young studs, is just one of them, or are they both over hyped by us homers and become busts? I don't know, but they are more likely to be both busts, than they are to be studs. I am hoping one of them pans out, and my bet is that Escobar gets his job back in mid to late May. Everyone knows regression is/was coming with Santana, but how bad will it be? I am thinking he might be moved back to CF the minute Buxton appears to be further away than thought...which, will coincide with that Escobar prediction above. Which leads me to my final "young guy" worry...because I HATE separating MiLB and MLB young guys. I never understood the over emphasis on MiLB system prospects, while ignoring young players within a system as whole. BUXTON. What do we have in him. I love this guys tools, and he seems like a great kid, with a great work ethic too. Totally rooting for him. But, I started to get a little worried when he struggled last year, and then got hurt, and then struggled in the Fall, and then got hurt. When was the last time he succeeded and at what level was that at? No, the sky is not falling with him, but it is maybe about time to start taking caution when assuming he is coming up soon, or that he will ever be an all-star, or even a good pro. Now, I think he will be a good pro at least. I really do. I just am pumping the breaks a bit, due to recent trends with him. I held these thoughts since he struggled and got hurt the first time. And then today I read this in a Dave Cameron chat at Fangraphs (dude isn't exactly an idiot either.) 12:26 Comment From Michael: Of the consensus top 100 prospects who, after Baez, can you forsee being a bust at the MLB level 12:26: Dave Cameron: I’m super low on Archie Bradley. And I’m not sold on Buxton, to be honest. Yikes, that hurt, even though I was already harboring that fear. It just hurt more to read someone I liked to read say that, without being directly asked about him. It is just something we need to consider. Now, on the positive! I do think that Sano WILL be a stud and I think it will be very soon. I also think that Berrios will be a stud and soon too. I think that May and Meyer will be decent to good in the rotation, or awesome in the pen. I also think the RP's like Burdi will be awesome, just rush them up before they lose velocity- It happens, so bring them up the second they are better than what you have. I don't think we reach .500 this year, but I don't think it will be as bad. I will watch nearly every night. I will cheer on every win and comeback. But, I will also be honest and feel no shame in calling out the front office for 25 man roster. Which, with every passing day, I am carrying less and less about anyone who is not on the 25 man roster. Go Twins. I love you and I hate you, but mostly love you. And I will never leave you. Just for F's sake, speed up this whole process and move in the next generation faster than you should, rather than slower. I am begging.

In mid March Gibson was showing a few added ticks to his fastball velocity, that he seemed to be excited about. Any reports on whether he was able to sustain the velocity increase through his final three spring starts, or was it it just short lived? Also, is Gibson less valuable to a team like the Twins, who have bad defense in both the OF and most likely the IF too? Seems to me that he better increase his K/9 at least a little, or he could struggle with this defense behind him.

Think this all much to do about nothing, for the most part. Not many guys, let alone veterans, handle demotions of any kind well. He probably convinced himself that it came down to his spring training numbers vs the competition, and thought he earned/deserved the job. Human nature to be selective in how and what you use to justify your roles. I'm guessing he felt all the bad should be forgotten, and only his spring numbers looked at.

Fudge Brownie Goldfish Graham's.

No interest here, or just lack of information?

Lol, nice stats gentlemen. However, not a single actual Twins pitcher velocity.

Please post velocity readings of Twins pitchers during spring training, if anyone sees them or finds them somewhere, or in an article/interview. Please post the fastball readings along with that pitchers average fastball readings from last year (from the Fangraphs site.) the link bellow brings you to the Twins pitcher velocities from last year- it's the first number. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=10&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0 For example: Seth Stohs: spring= 71.4 mph, '14 =72.6 mph. I have read that these changes often do show early in spring and often stick as positives gains or losses during the season. They also can show guys that might have an underlying arm problem and be predictive to future injury. That can all be argued, but regardless it would be fun to update and follow. I wish there were more articles and updates on this, but only seem to find a few mlb articles a week on this topic of certain guys. Red Sox Matt Barens velocity is way up and Jeff Weavers is even lower than the past few years I have read. Please post them as they are known, even if just hearsay. Thank you.

I am sorry Mr. Urlacher.

A few exact height and weight NFL athletic freak comps, for athletic comparison. Figured bringing in a little football makes sense since we can see easier what one can do athletically on the FB field. #40- Brian Orakpo Outside Linebacker, Washington Redskins 6'4, 260 lbs. Feat of Strength/Workout: 31 reps of 225 lb. bench press, 515 lb. bench press, 380 lb. power-clean, 4.63 sec. 40 time, 39.5" vertical leap #35- Connor Barwin Outside Linebacker, Houston Texans 6'4, 260 lbs. Feat of Strength/Workout: 40.5" vertical leap ............ On the other hand, James Winston was rumored to be out of shape, and was 6'4'' and 231 at the combine, but was probably heavier leading up to it. That is 30 pounds lighter and was considered out of shape. Several NFL players with similar heights and weights playing TE, FB, DE, ILB, and OLB. I know Sano doesn't play in the NFL, but just trying to give an easy comp to look at what guys that size are capable of. 6'4'' and 260 could be a freak OLB or TE, or 6'4'' and 260 could be the catcher on your beer league softball team who always gets a pinch runner. It could be this guy...... http://i180.photobucket.com/albums/x83/ryanf1990/21fz2.jpg?t=1192966861 or..... it can be this guy..... http://i190.photobucket.com/albums/z35/morningbake34/week33.jpg

Yup, I totally agree with this, but I was not implying that at all. My question was if this would cause prospect evaluators/scouts to be higher on pitching prospects benefiting from this. Not sure how one would even be able to answer my question. Maybe identify the minor leagues best defensive catchers at each level, and then see if pitching prospects pitching to them rose in prospect rankings the following year? Suppose the same could be done with the worst catchers at each level and their pitching mates? Just thought it might slightly play a role with some, and people wouldn't even realize it.

Yeah, I should have looked to see if there was an article already, but had a crying toddler pulling at me, so just put my thoughts down quick before or I would have never remembered to.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/july-2nd-plans-are-coming-into-focus/ Fangraphs claims that the Twins are rumored to linked to this kid. Any more on this kid or the rumors to this? Would be a good article for someone to write! There is a video that wasn't that impressive too, but here is the portion on him, incase you fear clicking on link: "Javier is the kind of player you typically see near the top of July 2nd bonus lists. He’s a 6’0, lanky shortstop with easy actions and an above average arm with an ability to stick at the position. Javier ran a 7.01 in the 60 last month, a 50 run time on the 20-80 scale, but he’s the type of kid who will probably gain a step in the next few years; Royals SS Raul Mondesi is an example of similar prospect who gained a couple steps after he signed. Javier ran a 6.76 for me in October, so 55 speed is clearly in the tank. Javier flashes average raw power that may even be a tick better than that depending how his body develops and he flashes some ability to show that tool in games. In the first half of the video, from last month, Javier was just okay offensively, getting off balance and swinging and missing more than expected. In the second half of the video, from October, Javier is more relaxed with better timing. While his mechanics still aren’t perfect, his feel for hitting took over when his hitting actions were more compact. This isn’t to say that Javier is trending down, just pointing out how one bad event could change a scout’s projection if he didn’t have history with the player. This type of variance is common with young players and is fixable. Javier is widely believed to have a deal with the Twins for $4.0 million, which I believe would be the highest July 2nd bonus of all-time for a shortstop. The Twins’ pool is just under $4.0 million, which means trades could push it to nearly $6 million, so they could easily stay under after a Javier signing, with just one minor trade to add more pool space."

I am sure those variables play a role, amongst other things. However, other teams pitchers are facing the same hitters and umpires in their leagues, so that should all balance out for the most part. But, if some of those teams have offensive-minded catchers trying to pass as catchers, while other teams in those leagues have fine defensive catchers that also frame well, this would be a variable that is team exclusive- right? Would be interesting to look at the best catching prospects, and defensive catcher systems, to see how that effects the pitchers that throw to them statistically and prospect opinion-wise.

I just read the "push" article on the Navarreto, and while it was talking about his defense I started to wonder about how minor league catchers defensive strengths and weaknesses may effect the stats and impressions of minor league pitching prospects. Say a system is stocked full of catchers with good framing abilities, would this unduly cause that systems pitching prospects to have better prospect views of him? Maybe this has been well accounted and adjusted for, but would believe that would be hard to do. Not sure if this has been covered on any sites or here.

So, we can expect Buxton's plate discipline to decline? Crap, thought he would actually be a high OBP guy.

He could try changing shampoos.

I remember reading an article last year about guys with slower bat speeds, and Joe was one of the main players mentioned. The article pointed out that his name was surprising because he was usually one of the faster bat speeds in the past. I believe they used contact vs pitches above 95 mph as an example, and he was one of the worst. Too lazy to find this article though. Guessing we are watching a still great Joe Mauer, but in a decline.

9-24-2013. 11:16 am.

I only list Arcia as the champ, due to the Hunter injury prediction. Otherwise I agree that this could be a good battle. I can see Hicks taking the blame for having these two sandwiching him with bad defense.