ShouldaCouldaWoulda

The Twins have put themselves in a tough situation by (likely) outperforming their true talent level. I am not sure there are really any deals that make us a contender come playoff time, that does not hinder our talent level in the next few years. I love how this season has gone and its been a blast to follow, but at no point have I had the feeling that this team could win a playoff series, let alone even a one game wildcard playoff game. We just aren't likely there yet. I personally feel that our best bet is to promote our young talent ASAP and hope that they can get experience and confidence by the time the playoffs begin...if we'd be in it. Promote the pitchers with the most dominating stuff, and get their feet wet in low leverage situations. If they fail in limited time..give them more time. Give them a REAL look. Meyer and Berrios should both be up ASAP in any fashion they want to use them, but get them experience NOW. Like I said, it does not have to be in high leverage situations, so if they falter its not a big deal. But, if they pan out, you keep moving them into more important roles. Trading for a RP would be fine, but only if it is someone that has a K/9 north of 8 please! And, only if it doesn't cost a future useable piece to the puzzle. Adding another mediocre SP just is adding to the same problem we have, and adding a rental legit SP still won't put us in a position to win in the playoffs this year and might hinder our future.

I have no clue how Pelfrey is still in the rotation. I do not think that many people honestly believed in his successful ERA stretch, but it was nice while it lasted. In the last month he has been Mike Pelfrey again. A change should have been made after 3 bad starts, with the knowledge that his success was smoke and mirrors.

Although I enjoy this type of response, could you further elaborate what you are "No'ing" me for? It was not like I was bashing the guy or saying he won't amount to anything at all. I was just using data and comparison to show that his results have been pretty average (ERA) to poor (K%) compared to other SP's in the league and his own teammates. Also, comparing him to Gibson is not exactly an insult. Gibson, when he isn't striking guys out, is a good backend SP. Gibson, when he is striking guys out (like this past 3 starts or so), is front end rotation type of material. So, are you disagreeing with me that his numbers have been very "meh" compared to the rest of the FSL, or that Gibson is not a good comparison? Another "No", is an acceptable answer.

Sadly, I don't believe there is one "phenom" in the system after Sano, Buxton, Berrios. I wouldn't call Rossario, Arcia, Santana, Vargas, or Walker phenoms by any stretch. They are "guys." They might end up as decent regulars even, but still likely just "guys" that are part of the puzzle. Being part of the puzzle on a winning club is pretty good though. Maybe Polanco offers MLB star possibility as a 2B, but that spot is taken, and his defense is said to be pretty poor at SS. I don't see many of the bats left in the minors as guys that will be likely playing in an all-star game though. Even Buxton and Sano might not be regular all-stars, even if they end up being good players for us. I think they both will eventually, but certainly no guarantee there. Sano will have more competition if he isn't at 3B, and a lot of Buxton's value is with the glove. Maybe Kepler can be Christian Yelich type of talent LF player, which is really good, but not an all-star or "phenom." But, if he isn't playing LF, I don't see him being great compared to other MLB guys. Pitcher-wise, Berrios could be our best bet to be a legit top #1-#2 SP. After that I would say Hu and Thorpe have the best realistic outside chances to be legit #1-#2 SP's. Gonsalves has a shot, but I am less sure his stuff plays up as he continues to rise, although I do think he could be a GOOD backend of the staff starter, which is nice. GOOD backend starter is not the same as a someone who just happens to be your #4 or #5 SP though, like crap we were throwing out there as our backend the past several seasons. Nothing at all about Stewart screams "phenom." Low ERA's in the minors are not indicative toward future success. There are numerous dudes in the minors right now with great ERA's- many. Most won't amount to much. He is currently 62nd out of 65 SP's with at least 50 innings pitched in K% in the Florida Sate League. You can point to his 3.28 ERA, but again here this ranks 36th out of 65 SP's in the league, and 4th on his own team. You have to pitch pretty poorly to Not be a sub-4.00 ERA SP in the Florida State League. He could be a good backend SP and a Gibson clone, which would be great, but likely his ceiling. I still believe that Meyer could be an elite RP. After that, nothing screams future all-stars in our system. Several guys that could be good MLB pieces, but very few all-star potential guys. That is not an insult to our system either. I like our system, just being realistic. Very excited about the young talent that we have though. Not a lot of super stars or studs, but collectively good pieces that could keep us competing in the upcoming years.

Liked what I saw out of May in the pen tonight. Wonder if they'll run him out there for another inning.

I wrote it on an iPhone, and have a friend with he last name of Roggers. Must have kept autocorrecting to that due to prior use. At least that is what I will role with. Even with out that, it was probably still confusing. Just thought added context with the decisions would make it more entertaining. Maybe it just muddied up the post and made it hard to read though. For some reason I am not allowed to edit my first post.

Okay, I see lots of discussion of who should be up or down, or in and out of the rotation and pen. Many have made some very good points on here. I would like to see how exactly you guys would construct our rotation and pen for the rest of the the season. You must use current players in the system, assuming no trades. Feel free to give explanations for your roster makeup. Feel free to use Nolasco, if he's ever healthy. Feel free to use Berrios in any fashion. You're the GM and Manager here. Have fun. 11 or 12 pitchers...its up to you. SP: #1.) Hughes #2.) Santana #3.) Gibson #4.) Milone- Not sure he keeps it up, but he's earned it. Nice having at least 1 lefty. Not a long leash though. #5.) Roggers/Duffey/Pelfrey/(Nolaso)- (Pelfrey)- Can earn his way back. (Nolasco)- Can earn way back if healthy AND successful. Next in line: Duffey/Rogers/Pelfrey/Nolasco Bullpen: 6 or 7 spots: 9th.) Perkins 8th.) May- Been striking guys out as a SP, so why wouldn't he flourish here. If he is going to be in the pen, let it be in a meaningful role at least. Could be Wade Davis-esque. 6th-7th.) Berrios- Gets him to the bigs quicker to get his feet wet. Limits his innings. Can strike guys out. 6th-7th.) Meyer-- start him out in the 6th inning or earlier, or in low leverage games later. Let him earn his way into the later innings, but could pass Berrios and May. MR (1 or 2 of) Theilbar/Pressly/Fien/Tonkin/Graham/O’Rourke/Oliveros/Achter/(Nolasco)--- Probably revolving, but let them battle it out. No long leashes of past success, but pay close attention to the numbers; i.e; No buying into unsustainable Boyer or Thompson guys who are getting lucky. Pay attention to the peripherals weekly and bi-weekly, then reassess. LR.) Pelfrey/Roggers/Duffey/(Nolasco)--- Clock has struck midnight for the Pelfrey smoke and mirrors story. His contract and skill set fit this role though, and could earn his way back into the #5 spot. Nolasco is hurt, and I would make him earn his way back into a meaningful role. Roggers and Duffey apply here, as this role should be our next in line for the #5 spot role. Further explanations: Rotation.... I know there is a chance we go out and get someone for the rotation, but thought this would be a more productive look at what have, and what we might need to do. The top #3 SP spots I think have been earned past and present. The #4 and #5 spots I think are open for competition, but put Milone in for now due to his recent success and being a left hander. #5 spot I think one of Duffey and or Roggers I am not opposed to Berrios in the #4 or #5 spot, if he comes up and succeeds in the bullpen late innings situation. His innings would be reduced and would allow him to finish the whole season. But, If only if he is dominating in the pen, are in contention, and the other #4 and #5 option don't work out. Not opposed to putting May back in the rotation either, with the same assumptions above. I just think that he would give us a legit setup man and be much lick Wade Davis. Using him as a long reliever or sending him down would be a waste of one of our best talents. Pelfrey could earn his way back in the rotation, and Nolasco could too, but they would need to deserve it off of recent success. Hope that one of Duffey or Roggers sticks and does decent enough. Bullpen..... The closer role is entrenched and the only thing we can count on currently. We are set, unless he implodes or gets hurt. I personally value getting your best talent in the bigs in any way possible, and K% in the pen. The Cardinals have had good success here. Putting your best prospects in the pen early in high leverage gets their feet wet, keeps your pen cheap, limits their innings, and allows you to better work with them on adjustments. With the above in mind, I like May, Meyer, and Berrios in the 6th-8th innings. They can get us strikeouts. It gets them all in the bigs. It allows the pitching coaches to work with them. It limits their innings. And, we don't need to make it permanent. We are trying to compete. They should all be in the bigs right now, and they should not be pitching in long relief or low leverage. Let them fly. I think the middle relief final one or two spots should be given to whomever is the most dominant in the past two weeks to month, and keep reassessing. No more Boyers or Thompsons. Don't worry about losing lesser like arms Boyer or Thompson. Long Relief would be a good spot for Pelfrey, or whomever is next in line to start. This could Duffey, Roggers, Nolasco, or Milone. Just my thoughts, and they are likely to change over time with new information. But, with what we know right now, this is what I would try, if I was trying to win now, while keeping the future in mind. Your turn.

That is a lot of questions to answer, and I am not invested enough to defend all of my opinions...well, because most were just simply my opinions. And they are guesses at that. But, I should make clear that I did not intend to imply that he has character issues with listening to coaching or anything like that. Only, that in any sport at any level, guys that are succeeding in a particular style tend to keep doing what is working for them, even though others may be telling them that it won't work that way as they move up to the next level. I used Baez as an example of being called up to fail with similar problems, as he mashed like crazy in the minors, but things are different in the majors. ABW is probably a great kid and I seriously am rooting for him to succeed and to K less and BB more. As for all the questions, well, you know that I don't know any of the actual micro areas of his approach that he needs work on or is not good at, or is good at. I am not watching his games and don't even know where to find those micro type of stats. All I know is that the dude is striking out at an otherworldly pace compared to his peers, while not walking all that much. I do not know why he strikes out so damn much, and why he only has 7% bb% while having otherworldly power. So, I guess I was making some assumptions that he must have a pretty crappy approach in many ways, while maybe not in every way. Whatever the case, I do hope he walks more and strikes out less, while keeping blasting bombs. Again, I will just assume that his approach will need some major work in order for that to happen, while I do not the details of the how's of it. I just hope it happens because I would love to cheer for more power on our club...HR's are fun.

I actually think the Twins SHOULD promote ABW the the bigs when they see a chance to. I say this not because I think he can bring value to the team, but to show him what its like. I think he would fail miserably and this might open his eyes to WHY he needs to work on his approach and take more walks. He seem like he might be a person who shrugs the advice off since he just keeps mashing and producing with the way he is playing and his approach. The problem is that he might not understand that this is only hurting him and that it will not correlate to the majors, which should be his ultimate goal. Bring him up to fail briefly, and send him back down. This needs to be done to HELP his development, and not HURT it as some might argue. It might be the only way to open his eyes. If he mashes for a stint, then great. The rumor is that this is why the Cubs called up Baez last year, so that he could fail. He wasn't listening to people in the minors because he kept mashing, but he could not grasp that it wouldn't work in the majors. So, they brought him up to learn a hard lesson. This year he was working on taking pitches and better approach. He was still striking out, but not as much and took more walks. Yes, he got hurt, but was looking good and the callup and fail might have been the reason for this. ABW would benefit from this type of wakeup call, and maybe a handful of ABW crazy fans that think he can succeed the way he is playing at the majors. I DO think he could be a good major league player, but not the way he is playing now. He needs a wakeup call to the majors to bring him back to reality, so that he can focus on approach and not his power. The power will always be there, so that should not be a worry.

If a player if forced to retire due to a job related injury on the field, is the same as a guy just retiring because he isn't performing? Or, would a player be able to collect the remaining money left on his contract if he is forced to quit due to injuries, or a portion of it? Or would that only be done by a personally insurance policy by the player? This is the only way the Twins would be relieved of Joes contract, as he is untradable here on out. Meaning we are stuck with his bat at 1B or DH, unless he's on the DL or medically retires. Yes, this is Joe Mauer related. This is not a post to bash him or stick up for him though.

Any worry about Gonsalves' first two starts? I read in a few spots that he shouldn't be thought of as too much of an MLB talent, as his stuff wouldn't likely play up very well. With his first two starts at A+ matching that belief, should we be a little less excited about his hot A- start? Or is this just an adjustment period? Or a little of both?

At least it was a good 3 innings, and maybe it will help his arm health. I would love to see him on the Twins this year, and I fear an innings limit on him, so any short start or skipped turn helps.

If he is dealing with elbow issues, I don't understand why he is even pithing or hasn't opted for surgery yet. Surgery is never good, but prolonging it is even worse. Not too many cases of opting not to have the surgery working out for the better longterm. Maybe be a handful, but the vast majority end up having it done. Why waste time. I almost hope he has to have TJ, as bad as that sounds. At least that could justify his performance and maybe give us hope that he could regain his velocity and stuff. I could care less what Keith Law has said about him. My guess is that all the write-ups about him will not be on the positive side next year. Wonder if the kid actually might have developed better as a QB, and have a better pro future. Stating that we should ignore the overwhelming data, and to just trust the Twins developers are doing a great job with him would seem to be a little naive. Still hoping that he is holding back or being held back, but I don't see this working out well, IMO.

"Kohl Stewart had a nice outing, despite a couple of defensive miscues that led to some unearned runs. Stewart pitched six innings, gave up only one earned run, walked three and struck out one." Yikes, not too promising. I guess we can hope that he can be a Gibson or Hudson, but definitely disappointed with his numbers and development the past few years. I have a feeling that he will continue to plummet down or off of prospect lists. My hope is that they are forcing him to pitch a certain way and making him hold off on his stuff, but I doubt this is the case. The sample size is getting larger by the day, and K%'s tend to stabilize quickly and not jump up or down too much from year to year, and this is all happening in A ball. Does anyone know what his velocity was coming in and what its been sitting at currently? What type of pitches are he throwing and frequency? Kinda stopped even getting excited to check the boxscores when he pitches. Dufey? Well, it was fun while it lasted, but hope he can turn it back around. At least Buxton is giving us hope again, and that is the most important piece anyway, right? Sano is doing well too, so happy thoughts.

I like his bat. I can't say much more than that. Did he not have an error in this game too? On the longterm, with Dozier blocking Polanco at 2B...how feasible is that Dozeir could play a serviceable 3B? Does he have the arm for it? Just curious. Yes, I know that we CURRENTLY have Plouffe there and playing well, as well as Sano at 3B in AA. However, there is certainly no guarantee that Plouffe continues to play good defense and its not like his bat is that good and consistent that we should count on offense from him in the future. And of course Sano is no guarantee to stick at 3B, and he could be shifted to 1B or a corner OF spot in the future too. We have to assume that the future composition of this team will change. We can't assume that Joe will block everyone at 1B forever. Polanco at 2B, Dozier at 3B, and FA defensive specialist at SS? I just personally feel that if you aren't going to get first or second tier production out of your 1B that you are better off just getting an elite defensive SS instead. I don't think Polanco, Santana, or Escobar should be considered great hitters, and they are certainly flawed defensively. Longterm this is, not for now. I don't see the Twins making any changes at SS with both Santana and Polanco being young. Maybe Polanco's bat is better than I consider it, but I just don't think his bat makes up for his glove at this point. Keep in mind, our staff or pen is allergic to striking guys out, so the more glove the better.

Making a football reference, he reminds me of the otherworldly fast/explosive WR that can't catch or run a route other than a 9. The power=speed, bb's=route running, and contact or K's=catching the ball. Maybe a Troy Williamson for Vikings fans. Although it is entirely possible that ABW somehow harnesses his immense athletic ability, while also learning to make more contact and walk more...I personally don't think it's likely. At least not enough to be a good MLB player. He hits a lot of HR's in the minors because he's in the lineup everyday. I just don't think any MLB team could find a way to justify keeping him in the lineup everyday, with likely having more well rounded options at their disposal. If he cuts down on his k% and goes from currently atrocious to just really bad, and learns to walk at a 10% clip, he could be really useful. But, he really isn't showing any signs that he will do that, and he is only in AA. Just cutting the K's by 10% in the minors still makes him a severely flawed MLB hopeful. I think he is fun to follow and is a good side story, but not all that confident that he serves much use to the big league club at any point, other than a pinch hitter and occasional DH. I haven't watched him and do not know if the problem is his swing, pitch recognition, work ethic, or other factors...so I am keeping hope alive that he is fixable to some degree. One thing that caught my attention was reading an article about Joey Gallo today on Fangraphs, where he states that the minor league strike zone is much bigger than the MLB strike zone. Not sure how accurate that is, but that seems like it might at least benefit power hitters a little bit once they reach the majors, if they are able to recognize and take advantage of it. Anyway, I am cheering for him to make it and think that power would be fun to watch. I am just being a realist, not a pessimist in regards to his future chances (seems like realism is not allowed at this site if it doesn't paint everything as best case scenario, like Danny Santana's previous or current Twins success not likely to last.) I wonder how close he is to Buxton and Sano, and if they have or can help him? Further on that note, any word how tight any of those three are to each other?

You very well might be right, but it sure seems that in the current MLB game, that guys with high velocity and stuff tend to translate those numbers better into the majors, and sometimes even improve them. As where slower nibblers seem to have better minor league ERA's, but that those numbers do not follow them to the majors as often. I am not sure why this is completely to be honest. But, I am guessing that guys with high velocity and stuff maybe do better with the the smarter veterans who do not have the same bat speed as they used to, since they will have to make their decisions and start their swings earlier, yet can still exploit the swing happy younger guys. Where on the other hand slower velocity guys now face smarter veterans who can catch up to their stuff, and the younger bat speed guys can tee off when they actually make contact. Just one guess at it. The Milone's of the world look great in the minors, but their stuff doesn't play up. Where the McCullerrs of the world seem to maintain similar effectiveness when called upon. Yes, they might be more volatile and likely to have implosion outings where they don't make it out of the 4th inning due to pitch counts, but they also have more gems that balance it out. Where nibblers seem to consistently give you you 5-7 innings, but give up 3-5 runs each outing. They can't win you the games that the bats aren't alive. This isn't to say that nibblers never succeed in the majors and that high velocity and stuff guys always do. that is obvious. But, in aggregate I would say that the trend seems to be more clear that you can get away with not having major league control to the standards of the past, as long as you throw heat and have at least one dominant breaking ball, and even more so if you have a change to mix in with it. And the days of waiting for pitching prospects to be fully polished to bring up, seems to be wasting their best years in the minors and one bullet closer to TJ. Having velocity alone won't do it, as it appears that the only high velocity young guys that are showing success are the ones that also have one dominant breaking ball to go along with it. Nibblers can be effective of course, but it seems as though they need to either rely on breaking and off-speed pitches much more than normal, and or, have a home ballpark and defense that suites masks their shortcomings and that compliments their tendencies. There is no one way to skin a cat, but higher velocity along with a plus breaking ball seem like a formula that is currently playing well in the MLB, regardless of polish. It seems adding a good change and control just pushes these guys from good to great. Rodin is having good success due to a dominant slider and great velocity, but the control and lack of a change keep him from going really deep into games, but that isn't that bad if your pen has to protect a 3-1 lead for 3 innings or so. On the other hand Eduardo Rodriguez has shown velocity, good breaking stuff, a good change, and control...leading to being great, instead of merely good thus far, and allowing him to pitch deeper into games. Does that mean I am not a fan of pitchers that find a way to succeed despite lack of velocity? No, in fact I root for them even more, since I like to cheer for underdogs/outliers. I am short, and you would be hard pressed to find short dudes who don't love underdogs. I love Gibson and he is my second favorite pitcher to root for after May. I would love to put together a blog about this in greater detail, but I am just not smart enough to write such an article, nor do I have the self-esteem to handle the criticism, lol.

The peak velocity comment is not that ridiculous. It does appear that high velocity pitchers of recent times lose their velocity over time, and that often times are less effective with the loss in velocity. You want to get these types up as early as possible, since velocity and stuff can often makeup for polish. If you keep those types in the minors until they are polished, you get them when they are less nasty and closer to blowing out their arms. This is something I have definitely noticed the past few years. Lance McCullers seems like a current example of "just bring him up and let his stuff play." Don't meddle too long with these guys. Meyer was probably ready to be up all of last year, but looks as though he has hit the stage of losing a touch of his stuff and velocity. If you target velocity, you rush them up, since they will likely be washed up or post-TJ by the time they hit free agency anyway.

Unfortunately ABW is the wrong kind of TTO guy. instead of being a useful Three-True-Outcome guy, he is all or nothing Two-True-Outcomes guy, since he does not walk. He thinks "walks are for wimps" apparently. Jason Castro, Marlon Byrd,Ian Desmond,Marcell Ozun, Nick Castellanos are 2014 MLB batting profiles with similar comps, but none of them are striking out in the majors as much as ABW is in AA even. Starling Marte, Luis Valbuena, Evan Gattis, Ryan Howard are 2015 examples of 2015 batting profile comps of guys who only K or HR. All of these names have very low OBP's, but some have decent name recognition and have have performed better in the past. Again, none of the names listed posted worse K%'s than what ABW currently is putting up in AA though. They are all 22-27%ish. Not 33%. Mark Trumbo seems like a best case scenario....IF, he dramatically cut his K% down. There just aren't a lot of examples of guys that succeed in the majors with high k%'s, but don't take walks. If he doesn't learn to walk, he likely won't ever be a useful MLB player. We all need to tame our expectations for ABW, as he at the moment is just a fun guy to follow in the box score to see if he homered, but I don't see him succeeding in the majors unless he dramatically cuts down on his K% or learns to take a pitch from time to time. Most players stay the same type of batter that they have shown, with only minor changes over time. I admit that I check to see if he has homered daily though.

Appreciate the article. We here a TD tend to be pretentious and snarky, so thanks for sharing your thoughts. tobi, I lov Bux and hope to see him soon. But, this year is really all that matters. Correa had the same rust excuse as Buxton, but performed from the get go. He has answered the call. That does not mean that Buxton will not be as good or better, but he certainly hasn't been thus far. Correa has also played excellent defense at SS and been a terror on the base paths himself. Buxton might be better on the base baths, but Correa is really good in that regard. I think they are both going to be great, but Buxton is clearly behind Correa in most regards with that bat, and Correa is pretty dang good with the glove and wheels. It will be fun to watch how these two turn out. Correa is just succeeding faster. Kind of like Trout and Harper being tied to each other, but Harper didn't live up to the expectations that Trout was setting at first; now look at Harper. The good news, is that we don't need to feel rushed to add Buxton, right now at least. The one thing that he would for certain add to the MLB team is speed and defense in CF, which we are currently excelling at with Hicks. Yes, sliding Hicks over and adding Buxton would be even better, but I think we wait at least another month, unless there is an injury or Hicks or Rosario fall off completely. I think Buxton could use a promotion to AAA first and to have his focus be on his approach. The lack of guys in the organization with a good k/bb ratio scares me. We need Buxton to be a hight OBP guy with his speed.

Hope the Twins focus on high upside guys that have either fallen due to injury, size, performance, or signing concerns. I only feel this way because we actually have a decent system at the moment, so swinging and missing isn't as detrimental than otherwise would be, and the upside is pretty self explanatory. I guess you could say they have gone that route with their fist two picks already, so I hope it continues. I do think Jay brings a lot of questions and concerns, but I still like the pick, even if he flames out as a starter while sitting in the low 90's. If he does translate as a starter and is able to only lose a tick of velocity, it will have been worth the risk.

I also don't think that just because it hasn't been done yet, doesn't mean they have already thought about it and decided agasint it. It's possible, but I wouldn't say that it's something they would have floated and turned down.

Well maybe they could chose one affiliate a year to play one game there? If they did it in mid May to now, you could probably have better control what players you'd have playing in the game. Waiting to promote those player until after the game. I think having a border battle Futures Game with Milwaukee, or even a different team each year in would maybe garner more steam. That way you can promote at least a handful of our studs, along with the best of other teams. Not sure when that game would beat work, but I'm guessing they could make it around the all star break maybe. If they promoted it right, it might bring more people into minor league/prospect fans and more entrenched/invested fans like ourselves. We all didn't just ALWAYS have the interest we have now about prospects...we had a learning curve too. This would help with future fandom and sales.

I think scheduling one game, and possibly a series at Target field would be a positive for the fans, players, and organization. For the fans it gives people the opportunity to see the organizational prospects, without having to travel to different states and help build a familiarity with the teams future. For the players, it would be a good way of feeling what it's like playing the major league facitly, but without the pressure of being the new guy. The organization would likely make some money by promoting the games and maybe getting high attendance. They would also be able to scout the players in the home MLB park and get a better feel where the guys play defensively with better feild conditions. I'm sure there are logistical and maybe even contractual issues, but I am failed confident that this could be pulled off and be beneficial for everyone. Not too hard to schedule these games during a road series I wouldn't think. I think they would get good attendance if prompted properly. How many people would pay to watch Chattanooga play with Berrios on the mound, and Buxton, Sano, and walker batting?