Taildragger8791

Ryan, Winder, Sands, and Canterino are the only ones that seem like they could be more than a 4/5 and are ready to try out next year. Sands/Canterino may run into innings limits though. Ober/Jax better not be planned for more than a #5/RP role out of the gate. Everyone else has a combination of innings limits, health issues, or control/consistency problems to work out. It would be irresponsible to assume any of them will see MLB time before late '22.

I put less stock in AFL numbers vs the entire season he had leading into it. Gordon had a similar breakout in AFL just to fall back again, so clearly the environment down there can lead to unrepresentative results. But grading on potential alone I can see why he’d be #1 until he comes back healthy and shows where he’s at.

You don't understand how a 22 year old more than holding his own at AA in his first season is looked upon much higher than a 25 year old finally popping up in his 3rd year at the same level (plus whatever he was doing in 2019)? Maybe he's legit figuring it out but that's pretty old for a prospect. He has more HRs than doubles which is a red flag to me that something is unsustainable. And he'll likely have to move off of SS meaning there is little margin for that bat to slip.

If we don't find 3 respectable veteran arms to fill in those question marks it'll be pure negligence by the front office. Maeda is no sure bet to rebound to even a #3 next year. Ober and the rest of the prospects could be fine or could be up and down all year working through adjustments. And most of our pitching prospects have innings limits, balky elbows, or other health risks. Any team needs to plan for 7-8 starters to get through a year, minimum. The floor can get a whole lot lower than we saw this season if we don't backstop the rotation with some real arms.

His fastball is rated 45/50, and his curve is the same. Slider is 40/40. Change-up is his highest rated pitch but I haven't heard much mention of it. Fangraphs shows everything other than his fastball gets hit really hard. Maybe these numbers will regress downward as he gets more experience but so far it doesn't look like his raw stuff is capable of beating major league hitters. Season Pitch Pitches BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+ 2021 Fourseam (FA) 465 8.4% 28.6% 0.29 .222 .286 .370 .656 .148 .292 11.6 -2.7 .286 89 2021 Slider (SL) 128 3.3% 26.7% 0.13 .241 .267 .655 .922 .414 .222 5.2 1.6 .378 152 2021 Changeup (CH) 110 6.1% 12.1% 0.50 .355 .394 .677 1.071 .323 .333 7.7 3.7 .451 199 2021 Curveball (CU) 94 6.3% 25.0% 0.25 .286 .375 .786 1.161 .500 .250 4.0 2.1 .474 215 Season Pitch Pitches LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB Strikes Balls Pitches xMov zMov Mov 2021 Fourseam (FA) 465 26.0% 31.5% 42.5% 22.6% 9.7% 304 161 465 -3.7 7.9 8.9 2021 Slider (SL) 128 22.2% 16.7% 61.1% 9.1% 27.3% 82 46 128 6.7 0.4 7.0 2021 Changeup (CH) 110 29.6% 37.0% 33.3% 22.2% 33.3% 72 38 110 -9.2 4.0 10.2 2021 Curveball (CU) 94 10.0% 50.0% 40.0% 0.0% 50.0% 73 21 94 6.2 -8.7 10.7

Color me skeptical. With more time for adjustments I worry major league hitters will figure out his sub-par stuff. The margin for success is thin on a guy who needs to be executing on all levels to get by. Lose a little command or movement or run into a team that won't chase and that guy gets crushed. Maybe that's a back-end starter for a typical Twins team but you wouldn't typically find that guy starting for a quality playoff team. Or maybe the misguided Dobnak experience is too recent in my memory.

Wander Javier had a nice little hot streak for a minute there, but man he still strikes out a lot and seems to be highly allergic to walks. Does he just swing at everything, or does he just have issues making contact in the zone?

That’s why I mentioned the part about the pitching staff being cobbled together year to year. It worked until it didn’t. Good pitchers were still good pitchers despite the 2019 bouncy ball. And bad pitchers are bad pitchers without it. Everyone had the same ball to contend with. The bouncy ball significantly helped certain profiles of hitters which we happened to have a number of. Those are the guys that won’t easily rebound and that’s why a handful of Twins hitters popped up and fell back to earth.

Sounds a little like a guy we just traded away...

A kid can work as hard as he wants but still may not have the 'stuff' to excel. Jax's pitch repertoire and command is nothing special. He'll need to find an extra edge that helps him stay ahead of major league hitters.

Bomba Squad window closed when they de-juiced the ball. The window was barely propped open to begin with because the pitching staff is cobbled together year-to-year outside of a few mainstays.

I see the ranking on SWR but he concerns me with his control issues. He averages over 18 pitches per inning and is walking over 5 guys per 9. Granted, 3 terrible games make up the bulk of the walks but he still throws a lot of pitches to get through 5 innings at AA. Control is one of the hardest things to fix it seems like, so hopefully there's a good solution in mind.

$15 million / year is not going to happen. He wants $20+ which means you're banking on him taking another step. Otherwise he'll be an overpaid #3. Also, a staff of Berrios, Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic, Griffin Jax, and Bailey Ober sounds very high risk to not pan out well. Pitching prospects are so volatile. The absolute ceiling for Jax and Ober is a 4th/5th starter, but they have a ways to go to get there. Winder and Balazovic could be solid mid-rotation guys or could bust completely out. Overpaying Berrios because you're penciling in prospects to fill out a rotation in 2 years is a monster gamble.

Looking at Santana's stats, a crazy thing stood out to me where his 2004 season had such a rough start that he missed the all star game, but his second half was so dominant he won the Cy Young and finished 6th in MVP voting. Wow. Final 22 games that year: 1.36 ERA, 0.69 WHIP (nice), 11.5 K/9, and over half the runs he gave up were solo and 2-run home runs. Crazy.

His numbers look similar to Brent Rooker with a little less power; who himself looks like yet another AAAA power-only hitter so far. Tough to see it translating to MLB without a significant improvement in strikeout/walk rate. But good on him for making the jump. Maybe he can become a quality backup with some more improvement.

For a guy who just started AA this year and is blocked at the MLB level, I'm cool with him continuing to learn at the AAA level until September. There isn't really much playing time for him unless they want to bounce him all over the field. Rooker/Astudillo/Sano/Donaldson have 3B/1B/DH covered. Gordon/Polanco/Simmons have the middle infield. Arraez could come back. Let's not yank him around during a crucial breakout period. Also don't want to burn an option year unnecessarily just to get a peek at a guy.

This has disaster written all over it. The elevated walk rate makes me think he lives on the edge of the zone or just outside with mediocre stuff, which gets strikeouts in the minors but will lead to a ton of trouble against major league hitters.

So is he likely a bullpen candidate without an effective change up or some other true third pitch?

I think some people got on Javier's bandwagon a little too quickly. He went on a nice power-hitting tear over 2 1/2 weeks but fell back to earth hard. Season strikeout rate is ~33%. Cutting his season up into three parts: First 21 games: .179/.238/.282 with 37% K-rate Hot streak (next 15 games): .317/.362/.698 with 22% K-rate June 18th (last 13 games): .135/.220/.191 with 44% K-rate Overall numbers aren't that far off from 2019, just with a little more pop for that middle stretch.

While he's improved to 3 walks per 9 this year, that's still kind of high for a reliever. And that's against AA hitting. He'll need to improve that command or he'll just be a (maybe slightly better) Hansel Robles type. If his fastball/slider are really major league pitches, shouldn't he be evaluated as a starter with that elite changeup as a 3rd pitch?

I'm with you, but who do you put these guys behind on the rankings then? There aren't better hitting prospects in the system, which to me is concerning because there is high risk attached to poor-contact hitters. I don't expect future major league starting-caliber hitters to struggle heavily with contact in the low minors, especially college bats. It's like these guys are lacking in the raw 'hit' tool and hoping to develop it just enough to leverage their other tools, but that is really tough. Maybe I'm way off base though.

It seems to me the litmus test for these guys is whether or not the minor league pipeline can start churning out arms. Everything up to now has been band-aids to make do with veterans and reclamation projects. 2020/2021 set back that pipeline so we don’t have much to go on yet. There appear to be a number of talented arms on the cusp and in the next year we’ll start to see hard data on their results. I’m skeptical, but I’m giving them that time before taking a strong stance.

Twins really gotta get Berrios to honestly assess whether the can extend him or not. If it’s looking unlikely then the time will never be better to get a haul to help rebuild this team with a new young wave. He’s having a career best season (which is still only a mid-3 ERA) and he’s still young enough and healthy. I’d rather keep him but it would be unbelievably bone-headed to lose him for nothing. This team isn’t competing for a couple more years anyways. Several prospects they need to break in and sort through before they can open another window.

Lots of guys have #1/#2 potential if you focus on their strengths and assume they'll significantly improve their weaknesses. There are a LOT of guys in the minors that can throw hard and have a nasty pitch or two, but they can't put it together into an effective package at the major league level.

Any word on Duran's elbow? That 'elbow strain' suggests inevitable Tommy John when there hasn't been any optimistic details given. What bum luck. Does this franchise do something to pitching prospects or is it just standard procedure now to blow out an elbow before you make the majors?