Mill1634

Likely options are dobnak, Shaun Anderson, Farrell, Giabult, Hamilton, and sparkman. Not a real jaw dropping group.

I'd say: Rogers Robles Drop off Duffey, but certainly wavering and then nobody. Absolutely nobody. I guess I could rank the rest of them, but I don't have trust in any.

I agree that this is the most likely scenario, but I'm writing this as if we're 8+ games back at the trade deadline and there isn't any hope of making a comeback in the last 2 months. If that's the case, I think there will be more trades. If the Twins are selling off pieces (Happ, Pineda, Robles), then Simmons will certainly be moved as well.

Thus far I have the following being traded: Pineda (expiring) Happ (expiring) Duffey (1 year of arb remaining) Garver (2 years of arb remaining, I am not super confident in him being moved but lean more towards yes than no) Colome (expiring) Robles (expiring) If the Twins do decide that they are not competitive come July, I think all expiring guy would be moved, besides maybe Pineda if they take this as a retooling year and want to extend him.

Following the disappointing series loss to the Texas Rangers, I released part one of my trade value rankings of current Major Leaguers on the Twins roster. The first part of this series was littered with names that are either unlikely to be moved, like Josh Donaldson, or by players who wouldn't fetch much in return like Alex Colome. However, the Twins have plenty of talent on this team that have the potential to get a good haul of prospects or young MLB talent in return, and you will start to see some of those names today. As I said a few days ago, there is a chance that the Twins turn it around, but going 1-1 against Detroit doesn't help. 11. LH SP J.A. Happ Happ was signed on a one year deal this past offseason, and the salary is modest at only 8 million dollars. By the time Happ will be moved, there will be less than five million left on the hook for the southpaw. Much like Robles, the odds that Happ is moved if the Twins continue down this path is extremely likely. Happ has pitched very well thus far, earning 0.8 WAR in 28.1 IP. Happ isn't getting the strikeouts that he has in the past at only 5.1 per 9 innings, but he's limiting hard contact, and doesn't give away free passes. He can fit in as a number three or four starter for a playoff team, and the prospect return would be modest, likely between 15-20 MLB pipeline ranking, depending on the farm system strength. Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers Possible Prospects: SS Eduardo Garcia (8, instructional league) 10. LH RF Max Kepler Kepler was another rebound hopefully that the front office had faith in, and rightfully so. Kepler had a breakout year in 2019, and was a main cog at the top of the order. However, he fell off in 2020, OPSing only .760, which is only a hair above league average. 2021 hasn't been any kinder to the German outfielder, hitting only .213. Another issue with Max is that his strikeout rate has climbed 3% since 2019 to 21%. Max is still a very good corner outfielder, and has been using his legs on the base-path more than we've seen in the past with four stolen bases. However, Kepler is signed through 2023, and has a team option in the 2024 season. The money isn't outrageous at an average of of 8.5M, but the length may scare some teams away if he truly is only a league average outfielder. Prediction: Not moved 9. RH C Mitch Garver Mitch Garver was an MVP candidate in 2019 due to his rare power behind the plate. Garver had an insane home run per at bat rate at 9.9%, while being an above average pitch framer. He also took home the Silver Slugger award for his prowess at the plate. However, much like many other Twins on this list, Garver struggled in 2020. We know Garver was battling an injury, and much like Jorge Polanco, we assumed that all would be fine in 2021. While the power has reappeared for the right hander, he is still swinging and missing a lot, and the pitch framing is more average than good now. When Garver hits the ball, he hits it extremely hard, but at this point he is more of a boom or bust type of hitter than anything else. Garver is still under team control in 2022 and 2023 at a cheap salary, which makes him more valuable to buying teams. I believe that if the Twins continue to struggle this season, Garver will be moved and the Twins will attempt to build around Ryan Jeffers. Prediction: Atlanta Braves Possible Prospects: LHP Tucker Davidson (7, AAA), LHP Kyle Muller (10, AAA), S OF Michael Harris (13, A+) 8. RH RP Tyler Duffey Duffey was one of the best relievers in baseball the past few years and had the trust of manager Rocco Baldelli as the 'fireman' arm. We often saw Duffey come into high leverage spots in the middle of games, and Duffey would get out of the inning without allowing a run. We've seen Tyler get the same opportunities into 2021, but like the rest of the Twins bullpen arms, he is not having the same success at stranding inherited runners. Duffey has one more year of team control remaining, so it is possible that the Twins take this up as a 'retooling" year, as Duffey would only be in line to make between 3-4 million dollars in 2022. However, this extra year of team control makes him more attractive to a potential buyer. I think if the Twins can fight back to a few games below .500 by the ASG, the Twins will opt to keep Duffey, but if they're 5+ games out, he'll be moved. Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies Possible Prospects: RH OF Yhoswar Garcia (14, R), RHP Eduar Segovia (21, A) 7. RH SP Michael Pineda (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio) The final player on the second edition of this list is Michael Pineda, better known around Twins territory as Big Mike. Pineda was brought in while recovering from an arm injury, and then was hit with a PED suspension, but Pineda has been as consistent of a mid-rotation starter as you'll find. He's not going to get a ton of strikeouts, but you know he's going to give you at least five good innings and keep your team in the ballgame. Pineda is on an expiring deal which will limit the prospect return, but he's a definite playoff starter on any rotation in the league (besides the Dodgers, doesn't count). Much like J.A. Happ, I expect Pineda to be dealt barring a drastic turnaround. Prediction: New York Yankees Possible Prospects: RH P Luis Medina (6, A+), RH 2B Ezequiel Duran (8, A+), RH SS Anthony Volpe (14, A) Note: All prospect rankings come from Fangraphs.

Sad and bad loss. The hitters hit the ball hard and had plenty of opportunities against some very poor pitchers and never came through. Nice to see Polo getting hot once again, as a positive. Larnach hit the ball hard a few times as well. Sano is so lost right now and is easily the least confident at bat no matter the lineup as a fan. I think you have to give willians a few chances while AK is gone, he gets a bad rap from some, but his numbers are much better than Miggys. Berrios certainly wasn’t right today, but he battled and did enough to win. Duffey has been such a disappointment. Law was set up for failure coming into that situation. The bats can heat up and the pitchers can start going deeper into games, but with this collection of bullpen arms right now, no lead feels comfortable even against the Tigers.

Rough day for the top 20 prospects

Exactly what was needed to start off this series and potentially kick things into gear (if it's gonna happen, it's going to be now). Garlick is one hit in the margin for this FO, and he's shown that against LHP. Cruz seems to be in a bit of a funk right now, but I think he'll be just fine. Nice to see Polo, Cruz, and Kepler all provide a spark tonight, they'll be key without Buxton and AK. Shoemaker did enough to earn another start, and Stashak did the opposite. That spot needs to turn into Giabult/Sparkman/Law/Anderson/Thorpe etc until someone proves that they can get outs. Stashak was so good last year, but his control is gone and he's getting hit hard.

Like east coast twins said, this is only part one, so going over some guys who have little to know value prospect wise. Simmons is not in that category and will be featured in part 2, sometime early next week

I said it in the game thread, but this team simply isn't a contender. I know they're battling injuries, but the core group of young players made an appearance today. Max Kepler provided a homer, but has been bad nearly all year, and is unusable against left handers. Buxton is very, very good, but often injures. I'm not sure you can hold that against anyone in particular, but when two of your best three hitters (Donaldson and Buxton) are not durable, you're taking a huge risk. Willians is a fun player, but he's nothing more than league average. Miguel Sano's timing is absolutely atrocious, and Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver have both taken steps back. The bullpen that many had questions about appears to be one of the worst groups in baseball, and the former manager of the year looks like a deer in headlights when his team isn't smashing the MLB home run record. I'm not going to be done watching this team, but it's time for many of us, myself included, to reevaluate are expectations. This team isn't going to make the playoffs, nor are they going to push for a playoff spot, barring a drastic turnaround, which is honestly just optimism with nothing to back it up. The Twins are likely going to have some tough decisions to make come July, and I tried to rank who we could see go, following a 1-3 series against a bottom three team in the league.

The Twins have just fallen to 11-19 on the season, including going 2-5 against arguably the two worst teams in baseball, the Texas Rangers and Pittsburgh Pirates. It's no secret that this season has not gone according to plan for anyone following the Twins, and unless a drastic turnaround is coming, which I'm not expecting, but certainly could happen, this team is going to find themselves as sellers come late July. it was debated last year whether the Twins should keep the core group of hitters in Polanco, Kepler, Garver, and Sano. Thirty games into the season, the answers seems to have been no, but we know that the Twins did. Of course everyone on this list isn't going to be traded, but I am willing to bet that a handful of them will be. I am only ranking players on the 40 man roster, so you won't see any Royce Lewis or Trevor Larnach's in here. Honorable Mentions RHP Matt Shoemaker Matt Shoemaker is more likely headed to the waiver wire rather than the tradeblock, but there is a route where Shoemaker stays healthy and starts to pitch well for the Twins. I'm not counting on it. Shoemaker has struggled with availability in years passed, but still been a decent back end of the rotation option. If he gets back to throwing with an ERA in the mid-4's, and the HR rate stabilizes, there may be a team willing to take a shot. LHP Caleb Thielbar Thielbar has been a nice success story since coming back for round two with the Twins. It appeared that he was going to retire from Major League Baseball, but instead he's turn into a nice niche weapon for Rocco. Thielbar relies on a mid-90's fastball, and a curveball below the speed limit. He isn't going to get much of a prospect return at all, but if he keeps his strikeout rate at 50% (he won't, but I do think 30% is possible), there will certainly be a team or two willing to trade for the southpaw. UT Willians Astudillo Say it ain't so! La Tortuga is a jack of all trades type of player who has a profile so far away from the average MLB hitter, that he's almost valuable. I don't think any MLB team is going to trust him to play behind the plate, and he certainly isn't a plus in the field, but an NL team could have interest in La Tortuga's bat to ball skills as a pinch hitter late in ball games. Much like Thielbar and Shoemaker, the prospect return is going to be almost nonexistent, but he has more than waiver wire value. 16. RH RP Alex Colome There's no doubt that the signing of Alex Colome has been a failure thus far. We've seen him blow multiple saves and get hit hard, and Rocco has recently used AAAA arms like Brandon Waddell in extra innings over an overly rested Colome. However, there is still plenty of time until July, and Colome can certainly up his value. He has closer experience, and front offices love that even if us fans think that saves are a useless stat. Colome isn't going to get much more than a flier type prospect, but he has value assuming he finds some sort of his pre-2021 version Prediction: San Fransisco Giants 15. RH 1B Miguel Sano Former top 10 prospect Miguel Sano came bursting onto the seen in Minnesota, and even made an ASG appearance in his third year with the ballclub, and had all-star level numbers in 2019. However, we've seen him struggle mightily the past year and change, especially with the strikeout. When Miggy is going well, he's crushing fastballs, but right now his timing is off. It's likely that Sano will find his timing eventually and go on one of his hot streaks, but they may be on another ball club, especially if Alex Kiriloff is back sooner than expected. I do think the leash is longer than some Twins fans hope, and the trade value is as low as it's ever been when you take into the fact that he's owed 11 million dollars next year, but a team could fall in love with the power Sano provides. Prediction: Not moved 14. S MIF Jorge Polanco In order for the Twins to be the contenders that we all hoped they would be this year, a lot hinged on this mans shoulders. We know that Jorge struggled with an ankle injury in 2020, but we all naturally assumed that the ankle would be ready to roll in 2021, and with that the gap power would come back. As we now know, Polanco still looks like he has the same bad habits that stemmed from the 2020 injury, and the contact rate has fallen. He's already struck out 22 times in 113 at bats. When Polanco made the ASG in 2019, he struck out only 18 percent of the time. We also know that he was moved from the SS position, and the advanced numbers don't like him at 2nd anymore than they did at SS. Fangraphs has him on pace to finish with a -5.0 UZR, assuming he fields 1,000 innings at 2nd. Prediction: Not moved 13. RH 3B Josh Donaldson The Bringer of Rain has been a quality player when he's on the field for the Twins, but the fact of the matter is that that is no given. Donaldson plays a great third base, and provides pop in the middle of the lineup, but we've already seen him hit the IL once this year with leg problems, which also caused him to miss a majority of the shortened 2020 season. Donaldson also has his contract hanging over his head, which is guaranteed for at least 2 more seasons at 21 million per year, with a team option in the 2025 season for 16 million. When you combine the health issues with the contract, I think it's very unlikely that a club takes a risk with JD, unless the Twins are willing to eat some salary. Prediction: Not moved 12. RH RP Hansel Robles Hansel Robles was brought in on a cheap prove it deal this past offseason, and so far this year the results are about as expected. Robles had the role of the closer position in Los Angeles the past few years, but he lost some fastball velo which limited his effectiveness. So far into 2021, the velo has came back to Robles, and he's been effective. Robles is likely a middle reliever on a world series contender due to the fact that he gives up the free pass too often, but he can thrive in his role while bringing that closer experience to the table. Robles advanced numbers from baseball savant are very inspiring, which give him a sub-.200 xBA, and an expected ERA of 3.44. Out of all the names on the list, I think Robles is the most likely, and the first of any Twin player to be traded. Prediction: Oakland A's

This is a fun little exercise...thought I'd try to put my own together. I went back to the 2014 season and allowed myself to pick anyone who played at least 20 games over that time. C: Kurt Suzuki, Jason Castro 1B: CJ Cron 2B Jonathan Schoop, Marwin Gonzalez SS: Ehire Adrianza 3rd: Eduardo Escobar LF: Eddie Rosario CF: Aaron Hicks, Lamonte Wade Jr RF: Robbie Grossman DH: Logan Morrison SP: Lance Lynn SP: Kyle Gibson SP: Rich Hill SP: Jake Odorizzi SP: Tommy Milone RP: Trevor May RP: Ervin Santana RP: Ryne Harper RP: Brandon Kintzler RP: Ryan Pressly RP: Matt Wisler RP: Sergio Romo

This team just isn’t good. Buxton is an MVP level player. Donaldson and Cruz are both very good players. Arraez gives a great at bat. Kenta, berrios, and big mike are all above average rotation guys. But after that, this team is just bleak. Kepler has taken a big step back, and polanco even farther. Simmons has been as advertised, but isn’t fixing the lineup. The bullpen isn’t good at all, and the starters can’t or aren’t given the opportunity to go deep into games. That’s not a recipe for winning baseball games. I don’t know what the fix is, and there very well may not be one. At this point we might have to take what we can for Kepler, polanco, garver, and sano at the deadline and hope that the next group of AK, Larnach, and Lewis can do what this current one has failed at.

This is awesome. Awesome community that deserves a bigger audience, and this will help! Go Twins

Bad loss. Said it in the game thread, probably 3rd worst of the year behind the shoemaker Mariners game and the game in Oakland where we scored 12 runs. The bullpen is so, so bad. It’s equally on the front office and Rocco. The options are poor, and the deployment of some of the arms (Waddell in the 10th) are inexcusable. Lineup was pretty bad tonight as well, but Gibson had his stuff today.

Jeffers is really, really good on defense. At least on the game calling/pitch framing part. The arm is fine, but the knee down position that both catchers use limits the ability to throw runners out

Just for fun if the Twins are sellers...pieces by value, imo.. Berrios (Not happening) Buxton (also not happening) Cruz Maeda Polanco (probably not happening) Big Mike Simmons Rogers Kepler Donaldson (probably not happening) Duffey Robles Garver (If he gets any semblance of his swing back) Happ Shoemaker Colome Thielbar

It's no secret that the Twins lineup has been struggling as of late. Outside of the game where the Twins put up 12 runs on Oakland, and lost, the lineup that most thought would be a top unit in the American League has been dead silent. When the Twins were rolling in 2019, they did so with a lot of Bombas, breaking the MLB record. One player that helped the Twins achieve this milestone was Mitch Garver, who had a coming out party. Mitch hit 31 home runs, and OPS'd nearly 1.000, which is great for any position, but nearly MVP level for a catcher. However, in 2021, the 2019 version of Mitch Garver is nowhere to be found, and he may have just hit the lowest of lows, wearing the Golden Sombrero. (HANNAH FOSLIEN / GETTY IMAGES) What's Went Wrong? When Garver broke out in 2019, he did so by crushing the fastball. However, in 2020 and thus far in 2021 we haven't seen him hitting fastballs hard, or at all. in his breakout year Garver hit fastballs at a .337 clip and only swung and missed at fastballs 15.7% of the time. However, in 2020 and 2021, he's swinging through the heater around 32% of the time. Swinging and missing at a pitch you crushed in your breakout year is a huge reason for regression. Even when he does hit the fastball, he isn't squaring it up. Garver's average launch angle on fastballs is 35 degrees, which is simply too much to get down for a base hit or over the fence for a homer. Garver had an expected slugging percentage of .723 in 2019, and an actual slugging percentage of .829. Either number you look at tells you he was dominant. However, his struggles have the slugging percentage on fastballs down to .359 and .375 in the past 2 seasons. You may think that teams have started to throw Garver less fastballs, but that actually isn't true. He saw nearly the same percentage of fastballs in 2020 as he did in 2019, a 56.3 and 56.4% respectively. He's even seeing more in 2021, as nearly 60% of pitches Garver sees have been fastballs. Garver has never been one to hit offspeed or breaking pitches well, but things have gotten even worse during Garver's slump. He's only seen 25 offspeed pitches thus far, but he's swung and missed on 50% of his swings. However, there is hope for Garver hitting offspeed pitches, as he has an expected slugging percentage of .787 on offspeed pitches in the short term. Take that stat with a grain of salt though, as he's only hit 5 offspeed pitches in 2021. Even when Garver was rolling, he had an expected slugging of .301 on the offspeed. Breaking balls aren't any better for Mitch, as he's swinging and missing at 30% of them. Pitchers are also going to the breaking ball late in counts to get strike 3, as it's the putaway pitch 36.4% of the time. He's never hit breaking balls well, as 2019 he posted a 42.5 swing and miss rate, and 51.6 in 2020. The Fix? Obviously the clear answer here is to start hitting the fastball like he did in 2019. The whiff rate probably isn't going to go back to his career low of 15.7 that we saw in 2019, but it certainly doesn't have to be around the 32 percent mark that we've seen lately. It also may be a matter of timing, as a 35 degree launch angle isn't sustainable or realistic over 162 games. If the timing gets back on track on the fastball, everything will come from there. The small sample size of being able to hit the offspeed hard is a good step in the right direction. Going off the timing note, we've seen Garver pop up at an 11.5 percent rate in 2021, which is up 4% from 2019. If he starts squaring up the fastball, the pop-out numbers should fall. As a final note, Garvers pitch framing has stayed good despite the offensive struggles, as he rates in the 78th percentile of catchers.

Sigh. At this point I really don't know what to say. We just faced one of, if not the, worst rosters in the league and looked absolutely lifeless. I don't know what it's going to take for this team to wake up, but this is not a good place to be as a fan or as a team. I know there are some pieces out, but they weren't doing anything prior to being out anyway, besides Simmons. He should help shore up the defense, but he isn't reliable as a bat which is the main issue. Shoemaker pitched really well and Thielbar looked okay. Alcala continues to have trouble with the longball, but he got a lot of swings and misses. The best thing about this upcoming trip to Cleveland is that we should get Simmons and maybe Kepler back healthy, and we don't have to face Shane Bieber. This upcoming series is a MUST win. It's getting late early.

Don’t look now, but the 2 runs off brubaker are the most hes allowed all year, as are the 5 hits. I know it’s early, but I was really impressed with him tonight.

Woo!! Feels good to be back in the win column. Happ was really good tonight. After the second inning I was wondering if he was going to be able to get through 5 innings, but he bounced back. The defense was really good tonight, especially polo making some plays I don’t think we would’ve seen him make in the past. Lineup was off balance, but I was really impressed with brubaker; his fastball had a ton of movement. Nice to see cave and astudillo make an impact on the game, and Duffey and Rogers both lock things down. I know neither guy got a hit tonight, but JD and AK both hit the ball hard a lot. Twins win!!

The Twins 2021 season has gotten off to a slow start to say the least. Between early injuries to Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton, COVID-19 IL stinks from Andrelton Simmons and Max Kepler, among others, and slow starts from Miguel Sano, Jake Cave, and Jorge Polanco. However, the hot stove is always on, even if we are only in April. I fully expect the Twins to turn it around at some point and to be buyers at the deadline like we thought they would be. We will see names emerge, and I'm going to identify some early names to keep an eye on, in part 1 of a 3 part blog post. Eduardo Escobar - Arizona Diamondbacks - 1yr/7M (AP Photo/John Minchillo) I've seen old friend Eduardo Escobar brought up a few times by Twins fans on Twitter, and it makes a lot of sense. He is beloved by Twins fans everywhere, and had the best farewell post I've ever seen. That said, he is a great fit on the diamond as well. The DBacks are going to struggle in 2021, and Escobar has an expiring deal and will be traded prior to the deadline. His days of playing shortstop are over, but thats okay. He's been a league average second basemen in 2021, and has filled in at 3rd sparingly, but hasn't done so well. Eduardo already has 6 homers and 4 doubles for Arizona, and is crushing left handed pitching -- something the Twins have struggled at thus far. Escobar would start at 2nd base against LHP, and can fill in at 2nd or 3rd if injuries happen (hint: they will). Miguel Andújar - New York Yankees - Arb Eligible 2022 There were a fair amount of baseball fans who were in Andjuar's corner for the AL ROY voting in 2018. Andújar put up a solid slash line of .297/.328/.527. He hit 27 home runs and drove in 97 runs, but things have gone downhill for Miguel since. He has only played 33 games since finishing second in the 2018 ROY voting, and has only homered once. He's yet to appear in a 2021 game as he is sidelined with an injury, and the defense is limited. He's a poor thir basemen, and has appeared in a handful of innings in left field, also not going well. One could assume he could also play first, but thats it. The Yankees' seem to have spoiled on the thought of giving him everyday playing time, but he could fill a role for the Twins as someone who hits lefties. Wilmer Flores - San Fransisco Giants - 1yr/3M, 2022 option for 3.5M Flores is best known among baseball fans for his on-field crying moment when everyone was certain he was being traded from the Mets. However, a deal never came to fruition. Flores is another infielder who would be brought in to crush left handed pitching. Flores has a career OPS of .813 against left handed arms, including 40 homers. Flores has been a rollercoaster in the field, but at best is nothing more than an average second basemen. He does have experience playing first base, as well as third, but is best fit at 2nd. Much like Eduardo Escobar, he would fill in as the everyday 2B against LHP, and can fill in around the infield when an injury happens. Who are your favorite targets in the early going?

I usually have quite a few thoughts after the game. I’m at a loss of words after this one. This team is playing the worst ive seen under Rocco. The starters can’t go deep, the bullpen can’t protect anything, and the hitters have been mostly bad. Of course they were good today, but combined with the defense and bullpen, can’t win a game off of 12 runs of support. Roccos decision to take Donaldson out was dumb at the time, and even dumber now, but wasn’t even the worst choice of the day. He let colome throw 2!! Less pitches than kenta. I’ll finish on a bright note..buxton is good, and the middle of the lineup looked like we expect. We MUST win the series against Pittsburgh. I know it’s April, but it is a must.

What a bad day of baseball. Shoemaker wasn’t great, alcala struggled, the defense was bad in the first game, and the bats were lifeless all day long. We went from absolutely killing lefties in 2019 to the Athletics bringing in a lefty to shut us down in a one run game when their typical closer has been lights out all year. I know writers and posters will say that everything will be fine, which I hope is true, but there aren’t many bright spots on this team right now they have me willing to put my blind faith in it turning around.

Not good. I wonder if this was not found before the game started? Would think that they would’ve made a roster move if they did. Guessing it’s a pitcher.