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scottz

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Everything posted by scottz

  1. scottz
    2015 = 1984? We'll see if there is a 1985 and 1986 before 1987 (2018).
  2. scottz
    I wonder how May feels, given that they told him he should come to camp stretched out and prepared to start. Assuming that he wants to be a starter, I can't imagine he's thrilled (even though he will "good soldier" it up, just like last year).
  3. scottz
    Can't stop watching the 11:18AM post.
  4. scottz
    We got him.
  5. scottz

    Pelfrey

    scottz replied to davidc3915's topic in Other Baseball

    Great, now the Tigers are going to know all our secrets.
  6. scottz
    Agreed. However, if they sign Park and don't trade Plouffe there is a larger surplus of position players to cover 1B/3B/RF/DH: Mauer - 1B/DH Park - 1B/DH Plouffe - 3B/1B/DH Sano - 3B/DH/RF (they say) Arcia - RF/DH (no option left) Vargas - 1B/DH (not necessarily part of the current surplus as he has an option left, I think...so they can ignore him if they want) Kepler - RF/1B (approaching the border of current surplus, assumed part of planned future) If they don't trade Plouffe out of that group (of 5-7 players for 4 positions), then it just changes the options for how they make up their team. So, yes, no team should make a trade out of desperation if they don't get fair value back, but depending on how much they like the alternative situation(s), what they consider to be fair value may change slightly.
  7. scottz
    It's a delicate balance. If they announce a Park signing, Plouffe's value on the market possibly goes down somewhat as everyone knows they REALLY need to trade Plouffe then. If they trade Plouffe, Park's agent would have more bargaining power in his asking terms. Maybe this isn't such a big deal, but it's something to consider. My guess is that the Twins have already negotiated to a point where they generally agree to a set of discussed terms with Park, though without any agreement in place as they listen to offers for Plouffe and figure out that market. Too bad they only have 30 days total to negotiate with Park - it would be nice to have Park and Plouffe options for more of the offseason. I think it is possible though that they could both NOT come to terms with Park AND trade Plouffe. If that's the case, you just have Sano at 3B, Mauer at 1B, and Arcia/Vargas/other FA as a DH.
  8. scottz
    This is great. I'm not sure how I would rank them all, but I love that you did.
  9. scottz
    The life of a major league GM is necessarily baseball-heavy. What do you like to do away from baseball?
  10. scottz
    Given the way Eduardo Escobar has stepped into the full-time shortstop position in each of the last two years, will what his status be in 2016: full-time regular, in competition for full-time regular, or bench player? A number of young outfielders grew up in their play this year. How much of that growth do you attribute to Torii Hunter's influence? Do you think Hunter's influence would be seen mostly in the young players' offense, defense, or the way they handle themselves off the field as a professional? Trevor May pitched well both as a starter and as a reliever. Which role would you rather see him in over the long-term? Miguel Sano put up some very good numbers in his 80 games, but he struck out 35.5% of the time. How important is it to you that he reduces that frequency?
  11. scottz
    I don't think it's good science to compare the height of the total world population's men to MLB players. Professional athletes are different than the general population of the world. If you're going to make a height argument about baseball players (specifically in this case, pitchers), you need to look only at the sub-population of baseball players when determining if height matters among baseball players. Regardless, we're not doing full-blown scientific analysis here. It's just a discussion. The stats you threw out do not indicate that pitchers shorter than 6'2" are significantly under-represented in the results of ERA+ compared to the total population of pitchers who qualified (in this one year sample data).
  12. scottz
    56 (72%) were 6'2 or taller. 22 (28%) were less than 6'2 20% of the top 10 were "short". Seems like just about the right mix of tall and short finished in the top 10 based on the total population.
  13. scottz
    I agree that the offer as is, is feasible (and that my offer is way less plausible as stated previously.). I guess I'm just saying that I don't want to part with Berrios. I'd rather give up a lesser pitching prospect (and even add in another lesser prospect) to go along with Kepler than trade Berrios and Kepler. Do you think Kepler + Stewart/Thorpe/Gonsalves + add another lesser prospect would be in the same realm of offer that both teams might actually do it?
  14. scottz
    I really like Sonny Gray, but I don't think I could do this deal. Kepler plus someone else, OK, but I'd much rather have a rotation with Gray-Berrios in it rather than just Gray. Everyone here knows Berrios has been very good at every level. Everyone here knows he appears to be driven and self-motivated. I want that guy on my team when he hits the major leagues. If it would require Kepler and a pitching prospect, I'd let the A's pick one of Stewart, Thorpe, or Gonsalves, simply because of where they are in the system (i.e., not as close to MLB).
  15. scottz
    I would love to have Greinke. He has been outstanding his entire career, and while it is likely that in the tail end of a long-term (5-year) contract he will fade some, he doesn't rely solely on mph to get hitters out. He is a tremendous *pitcher*. Therefore, I think he will be the exception to the kind of pitcher that really falls off the face of the earth. Just my opinion - please note, it has been over a year since I last stayed at a Holiday Inn Express, so my opinion might be crap. In the real world though, the Twins have no shot at signing Greinke. I'd be surprised if they even called his agent to find out what the target pricetag was. They simply won't spend the money to get it done. They will roll with Santana, Gibson, Milone, Duffey, and Nolasco. Hughes will discover/vocalize the injury in spring training that took a little off his fastball and not pitch for the Twins until after the All-Star break (silly prediction #1). May will be in the bullpen because Nolasco will stay healthy for four starts (silly prediction #2). By the point Nolasco is hurt again, May will stay in the bullpen because by that point, they will call Berrios up (silly prediction #3). Greinke will sign elsewhere and continue to be a wealthy man (solid prediction #1). Man, I feel for Trevor May.
  16. scottz
    An Excel spreadsheet. It's a thingy-dealie sort of whatchamacallit that can quickly summarize results using various functions that compare over/under predictions against a known result. You know, a thingy-dealie kinda sorta tool.
  17. scottz
    Scoring can be made easier using an Excel spreadsheet, if that helps. For future reference.
  18. scottz
    Another managerial opening. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25332957/mariners-fire-lloyd-mcclendon-as-manager-after-two-seasons
  19. scottz
    Mauer has played exactly one game in the OF in his MLB career (I think I could safely say professional career, but I'm not sure if he ever played a game in the OF in the minors). I happened to be at that game. I was pretty excited, because I thought it was a possibility that they might start running him out there more (that was also the first year they played him at 1B). I'm pretty sure one game is kind of the definition of small sample size, but he did ok and if I recall, made a tremendous throw to 2B at one point. I'm not sure that this is a real solution, but you have to try something. Mauer as someone who gives other people days off is a great idea. As many have said (including Souhan), his numbers aren't good enough to be our no-questions-asked 1B. If the opponent is starting a pitcher that Mauer has great numbers against, get him in the lineup somewhere and sit whoever might benefit from not facing that pitcher based on matchups. If not, pinch hit him. Expensive pinch hitter, but everybody gets old and former catchers get old quicker.
  20. scottz
    For me, it's the game(s) that you know at the time that it will hurt you later. When you think of it in the moment. For me, that's the @NY Yankees series in August. We had leads in all three games. At that time, I said to myself that we needed to win at least one of those games. Not just for the game in the standings, but also because it was against a team that has owned us for no good reason at all. Losing all three was a psychological thump to me, the fan, even if the team rebounded nicely in Baltimore. Gotta win one of those.
  21. scottz
    I think my guess at the beginning of the year was 77 wins. Getting to 78 was bonus baseball. Getting to 81 and a guaranteed .500 or better record is great. Still having a 7% chance (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/) at a playoff spot at with 6 games remaining? That's real, real fun. Go Twins!
  22. scottz
    I agree with 50% of this.
  23. scottz
    Careful, J.O., that kind of good soldier attitude will put you in a long term bullpen role next to Trevor May.
  24. scottz
    No.
  25. scottz
    Given how often it comes up and how many people seem to participate, I thought I was the only one that thought. The Wave quit being cool around the same time Krazy George had a full head of hair. I f*#$ing hate it. I hate everything about it. I hate that morons sitting behind me become DickBert for The Wave ("The upper deck is going too fast. Slow down." "Oh, there we go - here it comes! Here it comes!"), so I have to not only deal with The Wave, but also with the inane chatter that goes with it. I hate that I have to try to look through the mass of idiot participants to see whether or not strike three was called. I hate that stupid freaking "wooooooooo" scream - that's not even the noise you would make in a real wave. Try to make a drowning noise. Better yet, actually drown. I hate it. And Twins fans seem like the absolute worst offenders year after year. Go back to the early 80s, Wave. And die.
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