Shane Wahl

The second of three articles featuring players who I believe should be "pushed" to the next level in the system will focus on Travis Harrison. Harrison had some high expectations after being drafted and has moved through the system in the same way that Adam Walker has. There are still a number of question marks about Harrison's potential, both in the field and at the plate. I do think that the Chattanooga Lookouts' roster has room for both Walker and Harrison, and thus I think that there are more arguments in favor of Harrison's promotion to AA, than there are for keeping him in A+ to start the year. That said, his prospect status is certainly starting to drop. Most of this is probably the result of an influx of top talent in the system, but some of this falls on Harrison as well. The Player Travis Harrison is 22 years old (DOB: October 17, 1992) and is 6'1" 215+ pounds. He was drafted in the first round (50) of the 2011 draft out of Tustin High School in Tustin, California. He has played in 318 games, with about 60% coming at 3B, 30% in LF, and 10% as a DH or pinch hitter. He bats from the right side. Expected to display substantial power, he has not actually done so thus far in his career. Harrison has progressed one step at a time through from Rookie ball through A+ ball and now is facing an interesting point in his career. The Situation Harrison was considered to be a power-hitting third baseman coming out of high school, but a player who also was likely to end up playing first base. In 2012 in Elizabethon, he posted an .845 OPS in 253 plate appearances. In 2013 for Cedar Rapids, he impressed with a .253/.366/.416 (.782) line, totaling 28 doubles and 15 homers. He was quite young for the league and this was a big step. He did strike out 125 times, but also walked 68 times in 537 plate appearances. He was going to be overmatched some of the time there, but still succeeded. Moving to Fort Myers in 2014, he again had 537 plate appearances. His numbers for the year were .269/.361/.365 (.726), with 34 doubles, one triple, three homers, 64 walks, and 86 strikeouts. He also stole seven bases in 12 attempts. There are some similarities, then, between 2013 and 2014. His BA and OBP are very close, he added only a few doubles in 2014, and he walked roughly the same amount of times. Notice, however, a very interesting difference between Harrison and Adam Walker. Harrison's home run power was nowhere to be found in 2014, but he also greatly reduced his strikeouts. Perhaps this was an effort to become a more complete batter. The contrast with Walker is rather striking. There are two very different approaches here, and it will be interesting to watch them each make adjustments in 2015. The general thinking is that the power is still there for Harrison. The doubles certainly may attest to that. Harrison's move to the OF is due to some significant trouble at third base, obviously. First base may have been the original second position that many had in mind, and it still might (and should) be an option. Right now, I would think that all four corner positions should be kept in view for Harrison as he moves forward. The Possibilities A .726 OPS for a corner OF is not great, however, so "moving forward" might not happen immediately. Harrison certainly could use some time in Fort Myers, I suppose, to slug his way out of such a middling kind of performance. Furthermore, maybe Harrison should stay in A ball to work on his defense without the added pressure of raising offense while moving up another level. On the other hand, Harrison did improve important aspects offensively and the power can still come back. I would worry that he is following a Chris Parmelee kind of path of development in terms of concentrating on contact and good at bats at the expense of power, but I do think the discipline at the plate propels him forward in the eyes of the Twins. Harrison should be able to demonstrate at minimum moderate improvement with a move out of the FSL and into the Southern League. Sticking at 3B would have been ideal. I do think that he should still get some time there, but I have to believe that some shift across the diamond to 1B on top of his time in the OF is going to happen. Chattanooga does have room on its roster for both Harrison and Walker, even with Kepler, Rosario, Sano, and Hicks also on the roster. Harrison's prospect status has dropped over the past few years from near top-10 to high teens or low-mid 20s in some rankings. He can move back up prospect lists with a good year in 2015, especially if he can keep the plate discipline while getting 12-15 homers. It isn't clear to me what the long-term future in the Twins organization is for Harrison. While he has fallen on Twins lists, he still would be a borderline top-10 prospect for the majority of teams in baseball. With a good season in 2015, he then could be very attractive for other teams looking for a promising bat. I do not know what sort of scenario would find the Twins trading away any prospects in 2015, but maybe the season is good enough to warrant such consideration in the offseason. In any event, I would like to see Harrison move up to Chattanooga and see what he can do with what he learned in 2014. He still can be a breakout kind of player and such a season would provide the Twins with even more quality prospect depth going forward.

I would predict 100+ runs for Joe Mauer because I would have him batting 2nd, and I believe in the likes of Dozier, Arcia, Vargas, Hunter, and even Plouffe to drive him in (Sano comes later). I don't understand any lineup that has Dozier batting in front of Mauer unless something happens to Santana. What I mean is: just because Santana became the leadoff hitter doesn't mean things just move the hell on down! Mauer is the prototypical 2-hitter (minus some speed). Dozier, actually, fits in nicely as that 3-hitter against lefties. Power is key in the 3-spot. Dozier vs. lefties (pre-Sano) and Arcia vs. righties. That is simple. Obviously it doesn't matter if it's doubles or homers power, though the long ball is helpful in the first inning.

A: I forgot about Rosario . . . he could be regarded now as in that Santana-Vargas category as a 10-20 prospect. Thus, he would emerge as that unexpected contributor. I think he will do so, actually. Being on the 40-man roster now will keep him out of certain trouble . . . cough cough. B: Wheeler is interesting, to be sure. I don't think he should be favored over Rogers, though. I understand the 40-man angle.

Damn, that's a pretty good selection. I assume you maybe had 15-20 contenders for "burning questions" but I think these ten are pretty good. 1. Given that I think Eduardo Nunez's roster spot is pretty much a waste, having Herrmann on the roster wouldn't be the end of the world. I do not like what might come of Suzuki this year, but I also think that Pinto and Herrmann are adequate defenders. Turner and Garver could make strides, but I don't think Turner arrives before September, barring some injuries. 2. Let's hope for May. No offense to Milone, but I do think he has to prove more, actually, at this point. 3. I like Tonkin and Oliveros there, but then one wonders about who is the LR, and what has become of May-Meyer-Milone. I don't understand keeping Duensing and signing Stauffer. Borderline nonsense. 4. Vargas, with plenty of Pinto time. Hunter and Arcia as well. 5. Yes, though I still don't get how they didn't think about Santana as a LF option. I like the idea of Santana as the starting SS but also another OF backup (to get Escobar in, and to keep up with a possibly good defensive OF some of the time pre-Buxton--what I mean is that late in some games it would have been nice to roll out with Escobar at SS, Santana in LF, Hicks in CF, and Schafer in RF). 6. I just don't want them to get injured again. I am fine with substantial AA/AAA time for both of them this year. Sano should get his chance by August 1st at the latest, and Buxton by September 1st. 7. Yes, but mostly doubles power. I am fine with that. I would not be too surprised to see 40 doubles and seven homers from him this year. This could mean a .450 SLG, which would be key. 8. I think you are on to something with your phrasing of these three questions. He might push a 6-man bullpen (PLEASE!), and "intangibles" are grossly overrated much of the time. And he will be more patient than that "manager" with the younger players. 9. I doubt that he will be, but if he is, then they will be in an interesting spot. If the Twins have May or Meyer in the bullpen at the time, they can just swap and then see what Nolasco can get together for himself. Or they can see what he might bring back in a trade. This is why it was not wise to sign him to four years. Three years and more per year would have been much better. 10. It doesn't really lineup well for unexpected production. That is, Sano, Meyer, and May doing well wouldn't surprise us, really. I will throw out three names that could come to the forefront if the Twins are faced with significant injuries: Danny Ortiz, James Beresford, and Taylor Rogers. It would not shock me if Ortiz hit for doubles power in the majors right now. I doubt that he has a long-term majors career given the walking problem, but that isn't the question at hand. Any prospect can do well for a few months in the majors. Beresford would arrive if there were injuries to Escobar or Santana or Dozier. I can see him as a legitimate .300 hitter, though. He's a sort of light-Revere which is not like light beer but like ultra light beer . . . except it is in the middle infield so it is more like light beer again. Beresford could produce like Escobar. Finally, Taylor Rogers might be better than Milone. And I can guarantee you that he would be better than Duensing and Thielbar *right now* in that role out of the bullpen. And this comes from someone who had many doubts about Rogers, even after 2013.

165 to 170 innings this year, I would expect. I have a hard time believing that he won't appear for the Twins in September, and perhaps that could be in a bullpen role.

Some strong pessimism up in here. I see Santana as having one very good year, two average to above average years and then a clunker (though still better than some pitchers the Twins have trotted out there since 2010).

I really think someone should do a feature on host families.

I think I agree with those percentages.

And Lightfoot's suggestion for Walker looks good to me. Little things like that can go a long way.

Good question. I really do wonder about sustained Twins success from players who repeated A or lower ball. That is worth looking up. I cannot imagine that there are many, and certainly very few of the top 20% of all Twins players.

Expanding and yet re-directing back, isn't this issue the crux of the matter about promotion? Is it better to just move up a bit early (not way early . . . I know fine line sometimes, but you get the idea) and get the struggles "out of the way" earlier? And does it depend on each individual context (literally every player) or certain positions, pitchers vs. players, catchers, etc., or just in general? And what about differences between various levels and mlb. For instance, it seems like there just comes a time when the only way to get better at hitting major league pitchers . . . is to face major league pitchers (Hicks, by the way). If there is an issue defensively as a catcher, is it better to catch most games at AAA, or to be a backup in the majors? The "too fast" or "too slow" conversations often seem oversimplified. The general idea I had with opening up a discussion about Walker (and soon Harrison and Navarreto) and promoting or not is to add a little nuance to the discussion. I usually like the idea of challenging players and pitchers a little by perhaps erring slightly on the side of "too fast."

Wow, there is a lot being said here. I would like to know just how many pitches per at bat Walker saw. That would be a very helpful stat to see for minor leaguers. Is that to be found anywhere?

Leading up to spring training, I am highlighting three players in the system who are "push candidates." These are players who I think should be pushed to the next level in the minor league system, even with some issues in their 2014 seasons that might give the Twins pause. I am not one who thinks players need to "dominate" a level before being promoted,and I certainly think that there are two points in the system where there are "put up or shut up" moments for a player-- the first full season in Cedar Rapids, and first season with MLB-caliber talent in Chattanooga. The first player to be featured is one who creates a major stir in discussions at Twins Daily, with maybe only Joe Mauer causing more of a split in the intelligent fan base between people on opposing sides of player evaluation. I am talking about Adam Brett Walker III. Here, I do not want to get this discussion mired in repetition of the same usual stuff about Walker. Instead, the purpose is to just lay out the full range of possibilities for Walker, letting them speak for themselves. The Player Adam Walker is 23 years old (DOB: October 18, 1991) and is 6'4", 225+ pounds. He was drafted in the third round of the 2012 draft by the Twins out of Jacksonsville University and has played 285 minor league games, all as a right fielder. He bats right-handed, has tremendous power and decent speed. Starting in 2012 in rookie ball (Elizabethon), Walker has progressed one step at a time through the system, playing a full season in 2014 at Fort Myers. It looks like 2015 would mean one more step up the ladder to AA Chattanooga. The Situation Walker has displayed great power and bad plate discipline each of his three seasons in the organization. In his first full season he posted a .278/.319/.526 (.844) line, with 31 doubles, seven triples and 27 homers. He stole 10 bases in 10 attempts. In 552 plate appearances, he walked only 31 times while striking out 115 times. I thought after the 2013 season that much of the complaining about his K rate and the K/BB rate were overblown. Strikeouts simply come with tremendous power, Albert Pujols being one of only a few exceptions. I also thought that the walks would come as he gained more experience. 2014 didn't really resolve anything. He moved to the pitcher-dominated FSL and kept the homers coming. And the strikeouts. He put together a .246/.307/.436 (.743) line with 19 doubles, one triple and 25 homers. He had nine steals in 14 attempts. In 554 plate appearances (neatly close to identical for comparison's sake) he walked 44 times and struck out 156 times. So the walks did increase some, and I am still not overly concerned about the sheer number of strikeouts by themselves. Clearly, though, these strikeouts mean lower contact as his batting average dropped 32 points. What does actually concern me is that the doubles and triples really dropped. The latter might be a result of losing some overall speed and athleticism as he fills out and bulks up, but the drop in doubles is strange. His isolated power in 2013 was a whopping .248 (Willie Stargell territory), but in 2014 in dropped to .190 (Ryan Zimmerman territory). It is still impressive, but much less so than the power that really stood out in 2013. So this leads to an important question: Where are the Twins going to send Walker in 2015? The Possibilities Walker might be kept in Fort Myers to work on plate discipline and contact rate. The Twins do keep players in A-ball if they struggle there. Some examples: Aaron Hicks, Chris Parmelee, and Joe Benson spent the equivalent of two seasons in Beloit, Angel Morales stuck around in Fort Myers for the equivalent of two full seasons, and Levi Michael was in his third year at Fort Myers in 2014 before hitting his way to AA. This would keep Walker facing the level of pitching that he is familiar with so that there would be no added pressure and he can focus on rounding out (as much as possible) his batting approach. The parenthetical remark above points to another direction, however. It is just not wise to think of Adam Walker as an all-around batter who just needs some polish. Rather, he is likely primarily a slugger, and as such is a poor man's Miguel Sano, in that he lacks the potential that Sano has in becoming a near-complete package as a batter. There's still a lot of value in that power alone, especially if Walker can become an average or slightly above average right fielder. Following this line of thought, I would say that Walker should be promoted to AA Chattanooga to see if the move away from the pitcher-dominated FSL to the merely pitcher-friendly Southern League can let his bat skills take off. Subsequent struggles with contact could be ironed out with extended time in AA. I would hate to see Walker stagnate in Fort Myers and then have adjustment issues in AA to still deal with a year from now. I think it is better to push him now and see what happens, especially given how dominant and supportive the supporting lineup in Chattanooga is going to be for at least the first few months. Undoubtedly, the debate about Walker will continue as the strikeouts aren't going to drop significantly and the walks aren't going to grow significantly in AA this year. I am going to be most interested in watching the slugging get back north of .460, at the very least. Improved defense and maintaining a moderate stolen base threat would help Walker progress nicely through the system. Click here to view the article

I would still not count the Turner and Garver chickens yet. I really like Kevin Plawecki (Purdue). One thing to watch about Polanco: In 2012 and 2013 he was slightly better from the right side vs. lefties. In 2014, this flipped. I don't know the split within the split between A+/AA, but if this was just a matter of facing tough lefties in AA, then things are looking pretty good for Jorge.

I should have qualified it with "less power" but right up there with Trout overall, and this is while not ignoring just how good Trout is at all. Someone on the MLB Network (Heyman?) claimed that Buxton could be a franchise changer like Puckett was.

For the record, I really like Polanco. He has just blown up within three years. It's similar to Pinto, but Polanco has good 2B defense and perhaps above average SS defense. Both Pinto and Polanco started around 50 on this prospect nerd's list after 2011. Both rose to top 5-10 status within 2 years, and now I would probably put Polanco all the way to 5 (yes, ahead of Gordon . . . this isn't just about moving through the system up to AA, it is about actually getting better and better while moving up). I think in the long run, Santana is going to be the lowest performer for the Twins (but he still might be good, and that is exciting for this trio).

I like Hamels, but without a doubt Buxton and Sano are untouchable in my view. Buxton could be Trout with an arm and better speed. Sano's power is just something I want to finally see for the Twins.

I like the idea of filling a roster with good players and not treating the bench as a place for replacement level guys! There's nothing to worry about in 2015 with regard to any of this. See how all three do in 2015 and make the decision after the season. Or even wait until Polanco forces the issue in 2016.

I have posted this in a few different places, but I don't see a problem with Rosario playing LF for Chattanooga. And they could roll with everybody there to start the season. I don't see that happening, unfortunately (that box score would be ridiculous). Anyway, I think the way I had it was D. Hicks, Mejia, Koch, Gonzales (maybe AAA), and some other player would be bench options. Only Hicks being on the bench is really an issue there, but it isn't a huge one. Mejia is super utility anyway. There are players like Rosario, Kepler, and Harrison who can play multiple positions as well. Antony said that Rosario will still get time at second base. Kepler will play LF, CF, and 1B, and Harrison still should get a little action at 3B aside from LF and maybe some 1B too. Thus, a lineup of Buxton (CF)-Polanco (SS)-Sano (3B)-Walker (RF)-Rosario (LF)-Kepler (1B)-Harrison (DH)-Turner ©-Michael (2B) is possible, with the DH spot shifting around. By the way, Harrison will be the subject of my second feature in this little series. I don't think he is a lock to move up either.

An aside: Meyer *should* start in the Twins bullpen for 6 weeks, move to the Rochester rotation for about 8 weeks, and then return to the Twins and start for the remainder of the year. 160 innings or so. He would be ready for a full season in 2016.

Some things: 1. May seems to have the right mental makeup for success at the big league level. He is aware of what he needs to do (comments the past two seasons, for instance). I think he will succeed. 2. I wouldn't bother too much with thinking Milone is a better option than May as a fifth starter. I am not sure what that means for Milone, who is certainly a likely better pitcher than, say, Logan Darnell, but I don't like the idea of sending May to AAA. 3. If Pelfrey were to somehow when the 5th starter spot instead of May, I will lose my mind. I cannot imagine the travesty of that.

Leading up to Spring Training, I am highlighting three players in the system who are "push candidates." These are players who I think should be pushed to the next level in the minor league system, even with some issues with their 2014 seasons that might give the Twins pause. I am not one who thinks players need to "dominate" a level before being promoted, and I certainly think that there are two points in the system where there are the kind of "put up or shut up" moments for a player (first full season in Cedar Rapids, and first season with MLB-caliber talent in Chattanooga). The first player to be featured is one that creates a major stir in discussions at Twins Daily, with maybe only Joe Mauer causing more of a split in the intelligent fan base between people on opposing sides of player evaluation. I am talking about Adam Brett Walker III. Here, I do not want to get this discussion mired in repetition of the same usual stuff about Walker. Instead, the purpose is to just lay out the full range of possibilities for Walker, letting them speak for themselves. The Player Adam Walker is 23 years old (DOB: October 18, 1991) and is 6'4", 225+ pounds. He was drafted in the third round of the 2012 draft by the Twins out of Jacksonsville University and has played 285 games, all as a right fielder. He bats right-handed, has tremendous power, and decent speed. Starting in 2012 in Rookie ball (Elizabethon), Walker has progressed one step at a time through the system, playing a full season in 2014 at Fort Myers. It looks like 2015 would mean one more step up the ladder to AA Chattanooga. The Situation Walker has displayed great power and bad plate discipline each of his three seasons in the organization. In his first full season he posted a .278/.319/.526 (.844) line, with 31 doubles, seven triples, and 27 homers. He stole 10 bases in 10 attempts. In 552 plate appearances, he walked only 31 times while striking out 115 times. I thought after the 2013 that much of the complaining about his K rate and the K/BB rate were overblown. Strikeouts simply come with tremendous power (Albert Pujols is one of only a few exceptions). I also figured that the walks would come as he saw more pitching. 2014 didn't really resolve anything. He moved to the pitcher-dominated FSL and kept the homers coming. And the strikeouts. He put together a .246/.307/.436 (.743) line with 19 doubles, one triple, and 25 homers. He had nine steals in 14 attempts. In 554 plate appearances (neatly close to identical for comparison's sake) he walked 44 times and struck out 156 times. So the walks did increase some, and I am still not overly concerned about the sheer number of strikeouts by themselves. Clearly, though, these strikeouts mean lower contact as his batting average dropped 32 points. What does actually concern me is that the doubles and triples really dropped. The latter might be a result of losing some overall speed and athleticism as he fills out and bulks up, but the drop in doubles is strange. His isolated power in 2013 was a whopping .248 (Willie Stargell territory), but in 2014 in dropped to .190 (Ryan Zimmerman territory). It is still impressive, but much less so than the power that really stood out in 2013. So this leads up to an important question. Where are the Twins going to send Walker in 2015? The Possibilities Walker might be kept in Fort Myers to work on that plate discipline and contact rate. The Twins do keep players in A ball if they struggle there. For some examples, Aaron Hicks, Chris Parmelee, and Joe Benson spent the equivalent of two seasons in Beloit, Angel Morales stuck around in Fort Myers for the equivalent of two full seasons, and Levi Michael was in his third year at Fort Myers in 2014 before hitting his way to AA. This would keep him facing the level of pitching that Walker is familiar with so that there is no added pressure and he can focus in on rounding out (as much as possible) his batting approach. The parenthetical remark above points to another direction, however. It is just not wise to think of Adam Walker as an all-around batter who just needs some polish. Rather, he is likely primarily a slugger, and as such is a poor man's Miguel Sano in that he lacks the potential that Sano has in becoming a near-complete package as a batter. There's still a lot of value in that power alone, especially if Walker can become an average or slightly above average right fielder. Following this line of thought, I would say that Walker should be promoted to AA Chattanooga to see if the move away from the pitcher-dominated FSL to the merely pitcher-friendly Eastern League can let his bat take off. Subsequent struggles with contact can be ironed out with extended time in AA. I would hate to see Walker just stagnate in Fort Myers and then have adjustment issues in AA to still deal with a year from now. I think it is better to push him now and see what happens, especially given how dominant the supporting lineup in Chattanooga is going to be for at least a few months to open the season. Undoubtedly, the debate about Walker will continue as the strikeouts aren't going to drop significantly and the walks aren't going to grow significantly in AA this year. I am going to be most interested in watching the slugging get back north of .460, at the very least. Improved defense and maintaining a moderate stolen base threat will help Walker progress nicely through the system.

I say it's almost 50% likely that they hold Walker back in Fort Myers to start the year. I wouldn't agree with that move, but whatever. I do think there is room on the roster to work everybody in for Chatty. Buxton (CF), Polanco (SS), Sano (3B), Walker (RF), Rosario (LF), Kepler (1B), Harrison (DH), Turner ©, Michael (2B). Dalton Hicks gets time at 1B and DH, Harrison gets LF and 1B time, Kepler OF time, Rosario some time at 2B still, etc. The other position players are . . . Matt Koch, maybe Michael Gonzales (AAA?), and a couple others (I imagine Kvasnicka and Rodriguez move to AAA). The rotation looks like Berrios, Lee, and Wimmers for sure.

Precisely!