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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    A pennant in any year is technically possible. You're going down the rabbit hole here.
  2. Doomtints
    Should be easy to figure out. Pitch framing grades the umpire as much as it does the catcher. How do the Yankees catchers rank for pitch framing? And did Murphy see a huge drop when he moved to the Twins?
  3. Doomtints
    This depends on your opinion of Polanco. Polanco is ready and Dozier has just peaked. Trade opportunities rarely come as gift wrapped as this one, again, unless you think Polanco is a failure. If you think that it's certainly not based on any available evidence. Polanco may not have the same fiery bat that Dozier has, but he on the bottom line Polanco looks to me like he will be an upgrade.
  4. Doomtints
    It makes all the sense in the world for them to get to know their players. It doesn't matter how busy they are. This is like the director of a film never talking to the actors. If they need to be "working 24/7 on how to improve the team" -- a huge part of improving the team would involve actually talking to their talent. Sure, you don't want to make promises to a guy if you intend to trade him. And you don't want to communicate an intent to trade in case the trade does not go through. Nevertheless, they should have had a conversation with the guy.
  5. Doomtints
    You should look at split stats more often. In any case, we are talking about 1 pitch per game. If you are choosing to go to war over that, go for it I guess. I'm willing to concede that 1 batter per game could conceivably fall behind in a count due to Castro's wizardry. Now what?
  6. Doomtints
    Depends on the hitter.
  7. Doomtints
    Fair enough. But remember that both catchers were behind the plate for a pitcher named Samuel Deduno.
  8. Doomtints
    30+ runs? His pitch framing metrics are worth 0.92 called strikes per game. That's never 30 runs. That *might* be 30 walks, but probably not even that many. His base stealing defense is easily negated by his terrible pitch blocking skills. Those cost bases too, you know. The Twins traded one set of defensive liabilities for another. We're fixing to find out which liabilities are worse for a young pitching staff. But definitely be careful when calling this guy a huge improvement over Suzuki.
  9. Doomtints
    I think this is purely about pitch framing. Castro's catching defense is not impressive, with 12 passed balls and 50 wild pitches last year alone. For comparison, Suzuki had 12 passed balls *in the past four years* while catching guys like May, Berrios, and even Deduno, and never more than 36 WPs against him in any year while in a Twins uniform. When it comes to the CS%, people ran on Suzuki a lot more than Castro in 2016, and the 5% difference between the two of them could be statistically attributed to that. Just a couple more stolen bases and that 5% can vanish (or it can get better.) Who has the edge in categories that are important for catchers? - Catching defense - Suzuki - Base stealing defense - Castro - Hitting - Suzuki - Pitch Framing - Castro - Age - Castro (though Suzuki has proven to be able to catch after age 29 and Castro is just now getting there) Castro is the less risky bet for the future, but the difference isn't going to be what some of us think it will. The key differences boil down to this: Castro can make the pitchers who can find the strike zone look better. Suzuki can stop the pitchers who can't find the strike zone from costing the team games.
  10. Doomtints
    I think the Twins got duped with JRM. The Yankees already traded off a catcher this year too, one who looks better than JRM ever did. Sure, give JRM a shot in spring training. But if he still can't block pitches, throw out runners, or hit the ball, let's hope they don't hesitate to make Garver the backup and leave JRM at AAA.
  11. Doomtints
    That's overplayed. The Cubs got one really good pick. The rest of their success is from landing a great manager and not being afraid to spend money. The Cubs always had money (Cubs fans are truly a cult), they just weren't spending it like they should have been.
  12. Doomtints
    Since the Braves were also chasing Castro, why not trade for the Braves catcher who was BETTER at pitch framing than Castro was and let them land Castro? This would have saved money and the Braves are no doubt prospect hunting. Suzuki was signed many years ago and was still one of the highest paid catchers in the league -- more than Ramos. So is it *really* true that the Twins are paying market value, or is this just what we want to believe? Seeing as we are looking at a 1.1 WAR player who will get an 1 extra called strike per game, why not supplant him with trades for the #7 best paid player at each position? This seems to be the bar. Would any of these guys have a bigger impact than Castro? Freddie Freeman 6.5 WAR Daniel Murphy 4.6 WAR Martin Prado 3.8 WAR Andrelton Simmons 4.2 WAR Jon Lester 5.3 WAR Lorenzo Cain 2.9 WAR Don't get the wrong idea here. I think the Castro signing is a good move and it's pushing things the right direction. But we need to temper our enthusiasm a bit. I don't want to hear people complaining for the next three years about how he can't hit and can't block pitches. (May and Berrios are both wild, remember). And yeah, the Twins paid a premium price for him ... that needs to be called out. I'm all for the Twins spending more, let's hope they're consistent about it and not throwing money into a hole by making this the one position where they open up the wallet.
  13. Doomtints
    For good reason. Castro's superior pitch framing means that he gets 0.92 strikes called per game that should be balls. That's such dominance it just makes one tremble inside. A world series is inevitable.
  14. Doomtints
    This will make him the #7 most highly paid catcher in the league. Is he at that level? His WAR ranks 23rd at the position. This is a 0.5 improvement over Suzuki. Of course, WAR does not measure pitch framing which appears to be the justification for this move. He is ranked #5 for pitch framing, right below the Braves catcher. How well did the Braves do last year?
  15. Doomtints
    30 WAR might be high there. But yeah, he is one of those guys who elevates others.
  16. Doomtints
    He is good but he has limitations. He shows a lot of power when betting first and when the bases are empty. His pull hitting would not bother anyone, and his power being mostly against righties would be only a minor concern. The problem is you want high OBP guys hitting leadoff and hitting when the bases are empty, not the home run guy. Because of this he may not be going anywhere, it would depend on whether or not another team would think they could fix it. No one is going to move Dozier to leadoff just because that's the only place he can hit, other teams have their own leadoff guys already. Dozier would have to adjust, and when the Twins have tried to move him down in the order his bat went ice cold.
  17. Doomtints
    You count well! Here are the counts: 7 lead-off 3 walk-off 13 tying 24 go-ahead 70 total Other interesting numbers: - 2 as DH - 14 in April-May - 29 when the Twins were behind - 34 at Target Field - 37 with game tied or the Twins down by 1 run - 47 pulled - 48 when the bases were empty - 49 when batting 1st - 52 v. RHP
  18. Doomtints
    The problem here as I see it is that the FO should be thinking a lot less about "keeping spending at the same level" and a lot more about the path to make the team competitive. I see a lot of people saying, "OO, awesome. I don't see anyone they could pick up anyway." But that's not the point. The quote isn't, "They explored the free agent market and likely won't make a move at this time." Instead, the quote is, "They are keeping the spending at the same level." Those are two completely different statements and different approaches. The second one, if true, sounds a hell of a lot like what we have been hearing from the Twins over the years (and not much like the Indians and Rangers, mind you). Now, as far as quotes go, the above looks to be about as reputable as a box of kittens would be as far as predicting what the Twins are going to do. We may as well start asking the Packers front office about roster moves the Vikings are going to do.
  19. Doomtints
    Fun.
  20. Doomtints
    Plouffe could easily be worth $8M if he stays healthy. Fangraphs has his mediocre 2015 pegged at being worth $19.5M. Plouffe going back to his 2015 form is not out of the question as that is not exactly a high bar. As fans we need to realize that this move has nothing at all to do with Plouffe and everything to do with Sano. This doesn't mean it was the wrong move, mind you. Whichever team lands Plouffe will get a good deal unless he gets injured.
  21. Doomtints
    The legendary Eddie Gaedel. 3-foot-7. Put in for one at bat. The pitcher could not find his tiny strike zone, so he had a 4-pitch walk. He was then pulled for a pinch runner. He holds the record for highest career OBP. The AL President voided his contract after 2 days, for breaking the vagely worded "making a mockery of the game" rule. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gaedeed01.shtml
  22. Doomtints
    Hawkins is an extremely intelligent guy. He should be a great help.
  23. Doomtints
    That's the assumption, yes.
  24. Doomtints
    So the suspicion is that the Dodgers are more willing to spend cash than they are to spend prospects. Fair enough. This is might be the wise move for a team that barely missed the world series and wants to stay in contention as long as possible.
  25. Doomtints
    I'm a little surprised the Twins could not find another team to swap flawed prospects for. Doing that would have still freed up the roster spot, no?
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