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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    This is the first I have heard the opinion that Stewart and Jay are better prospects. Why do you think that? Who do you think the Twins could pick in 2017 that would be MLB ready?
  2. Doomtints
    Bautista would be an upgrade offensively and a downgrade defensively over not just Rosario but any Twins outfielder. Signing him could help with the sting of losing Dozier but would do nothing to help this pitching staff from getting lit up. Also, the DH spot is filled so he won't get the days off he will require at 36 years old. But even if this made sense, I don't see any way he would sign with the Twins. Who the heck wants to run around the field behind a crappy pitching staff at age 36? He only ends up a Twin if every other team passes, which won't happen.
  3. Doomtints
    Right. The games in 2017 still need to be played and the Twins have one starting pitcher they can trust. At some point you have to stop digging the hole bigger and start filling it in. The Twins are coming from a weak position with pitching, not a strong one. Trading Dozier is the best way to replenish the pitching, not trading the one legit pitcher on the team.
  4. Doomtints
    Rondell White was Ryan's fault. One of many players he signed at the very tail end of their careers who failed miserably.
  5. Doomtints
    An injury is the one way to screw it up. And we already know he is coming off an injury. Gleeman was probably referring to pitchers that project to be healthy.
  6. Doomtints
    Park Factors has Target field as a hitter's park, not a pitchers' park. I think we view it as a pitcher's park mostly due to the Twins lack of hitting ability since being at Target Field. Wrigley's Park Factor rating jumps around a bit, a key theory is that this is due to the weather but I think it's more due to the Cubs historical lack of a consistent pitching staff. Last year Wrigley was a pitcher's park in spite of the Cubs lighting up the competition on a regular basis. Historically, Wrigley is a neutral park, so even if things change next year it would still be a better park for a pitcher than Target Field.
  7. Doomtints
    That's exactly right. This is one thing Ryan never realized and many Twins fans do not realize -- a key way to re-stock the minor league talent is to sign competent veteran players. If you do nothing to stock your team except promote from within, very quickly the minor league talent is depleted and often rushed to the majors before they are ready.
  8. Doomtints
    It's difficult to imagine that the Cardinals would part with anyone who would be better than De Leon + any other prospect. If this is just spin, the Dodgers aren't fooled. If it's not spin, the Twins are going down the path of getting ripped off. As the Twins like Dozier and aren't trying to dump off a toxic personality, a player past his prime, or a high salary, I think we can all agree that this is just spin. I'm sure the Cardinals would love to have Dozier. He would help them. But they just don't have the pieces to give the Twins the best offer unless this becomes a 3-team trade.
  9. Doomtints
    Every team needs 3 back end starters to fill out a rotation. The Twins are roughly 3 down on that. Stocking the team with guys who can pitch is a very good thing right now. They can sign the ace once they have 3-4 other guys who can pitch.
  10. Doomtints
    There are other teams looking at him too, including the Cubs. It's doubtful he falls to the Twins unless he fails a physical, in which case the Twins should pass on him too.
  11. Doomtints
    That's not worth much at all. Gonsalves can toss fastballs in the 92-93 range. Milone tosses fastballs in the 87-88 range. There is no sane comparison between these two players.
  12. Doomtints
    If the projection is for Gonsalves to fail then the Twins had better open up their wallets wide because there won't be enough coming up from the minors for a hell of a long time to re-stock the rotation.
  13. Doomtints
    Johan Santana's fastball sat at just under 92 but he had the capability to toss it at 95 when he needed to. He also had a ridiculous low-80s changeup to go with his fastball. De Leon showed the same stuff in his limited number of starts. The problem is De Leon lived on his fastball during his so-far-short MLB career. If De Leon lets someone else call the pitches he will be fine. As for De Leon missing spots, heat maps show he was throwing strikes. But, if you toss the same 91-92 MPH fastball to the same spots in the strike zone for every pitch, you're going to get burned. De Leon definitely does not have the control issues we have seen with nearly every rookie Twins pitcher since 2011. His velocity is also not a problem. I imagine your argument is exactly the argument the Twins make when trying to negotiate with the Dodgers. I doubt the Dodgers are buying it.
  14. Doomtints
    I'm sorry you feel the need to pretend not to follow what I'm saying and want to take things out of context to attack them. Merry Christmas.
  15. Doomtints
    Sure. But he has 2 years left on his contract. As stated elsewhere, 2017 may be a reasonable risk but 2018 isn't. If the Twins unload him now they won't get anyone of consequence in return. His value as a potential 12-15 game winner and mentor in 2017 is worth more than the Jim Hoey they would get in a trade. If his decline still has not started by this time next year, he will be traded so quickly our heads will spin with the Twins getting a real prospect in return.
  16. Doomtints
    Unfortunately a lot of these players played some time ago so there is incomplete or missing pitchf/x data. Without knowing if their velocity was dropping it's hard to know what was going on. This is also missing injury information. Radke's pitching arm was so shredded by the time he retired he could barely lift it. Gardenhire couldn't believe he kept going out there pitching at a competent level when on off days he could not lift anything with his pitching arm.
  17. Doomtints
    Your data suggests that if he declines, the decline won't be going off a cliff. I think we all expect him to be a little worse in 2017, so this surprises no one. Thanks for doing this.
  18. Doomtints
    Yes, that's a fair way to assess. With pitchf/x, we can see if a pitcher is on the decline. Santana has not shown that decline starting yet. We no longer need to be so black and white about things. Santana's decline is certainly coming and it's not unreasonable to predict that will happen next year based on his age alone, but there is no data to back up that decline starting with him personally. If Santana only had one year left on his contract the Twins would have no trouble moving him if they wanted to. That second year is one hell of a question mark, even if next year looks like a reasonable risk.
  19. Doomtints
    True. The person who was running the analytics department is still running the analytics department. In fact, they gave him a new job title that suggests a raise and promotion. Though, to be fair, the analytics team should only be producing the numbers that their bosses tell them to.
  20. Doomtints
    The Twins should wisen up a bit. De Leon has better minor league numbers than Johan Santana with a fastball and changeup that are not far off. De Leon relies on his fastball too much which is a concern, but the Twins just need to get him to trust them to call the pitches. Regardless of his 2016, Dozier is B level talent and a simple 1-to-1 trade for De Leon has the Twins coming out winners. If the Twins are squabbling over the #2 player in the trade, they should just take whoever the Dodgers have on the table. The #2 person doesn't matter in this transaction as the Twins are already coming out ahead.
  21. Doomtints
    Hughes is done. His fastball has sat at 90 for two years.
  22. Doomtints
    Would have loved to see Scott Erickson. In 1991 I would stay up late to listen to ESPN radio to hear how the Twins were doing. They kept winning and he kept winning. Fun times.
  23. Doomtints
    Santana's worst year was 2012, which is the lone year that his fastball dipped below 92 MPH. This is not unusual, most pitchers who can't hit 92 struggle. But it's not just velocity. Heat maps for 2012 show he was throwing it right down broadway. This also is not a recipe for success. Since 2013, heat maps show he is throwing the ball down and away to right handed hitters with great success. And he has been over 92 MPH every year as well. Even if his velocity drops a bit, he may still show success with his down-and-away placement. Look, every single year people have predicted that Santana's production was about to fall over a cliff. It has yet to happen. When looking at the pitchf/x data, there is no reason to believe he is living on borrowed time. I honestly have no clue where the the doom & gloom around Santana comes from, but it has been a little annoying hearing it year after year. But even a broken clock is right once a day. Maybe 2017 really will be the year that the majority of people are right and Santana stops being productive. But this prediction certainly isn't based on any data. He will, after all, be 34 year old. However, last year he was much better in the 2nd half which suggests his arm isn't tiring out quite yet.
  24. Doomtints
    You all are listing players who made very memorable bad plays or weren't very good. Generally, players you all dislike for one reason or another. But let me offer a different perspective. Ron Davis is the only player I know of in Twins history who single-handedly destroyed a playoff run. He had 14 blown saves in 1984 including two in the final week of the season. The Twins finished the year 3 games back in the division. With any other closer, or even a closer by committee, the Twins go to the playoffs in 1984, which would have been just two years after a 60-102 season. And with a Hrbek, Puckett, Brunansky, and Viola all firing on all cylinders already, they would have actually won a couple of playoff games in the process. The Twins had the required 3 good starting pitchers for the playoffs -- something they didn't have in 1987. Buffalo 66 should have been written about Ron Davis. If you asked this question any time between 1985 and 2000, Ron Davis would be the unanimous answer. Some of you just don't know who he is. Most of the names being thrown out here are rather inconsequential players. They sucked but they did not destroy a season all on their own.
  25. Doomtints
    The Dodgers have something like ten available starting pitchers they could use which is why trading away De Leon makes sense for them. They have many pitchers close to ready in the minors. Insane. The Twins have somewhere between 1 and 4 starting pitchers available, depending on who you ask. And they've been stuck at this level for five years. Also insane. Spending money like the Dodgers do might not be so bad after all, no? The Dodgers managed not just to stockpile major league talent but minor league talent as well. The Dodgers changed ownership around 5 years ago and are already contending. The Twins....
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