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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    I like Plouffe but they should have moved him around 20 GIDP ago. It's his fatal flaw. He will get picked up and will be paid well enough.
  2. Doomtints
    I like the comparison to flipping houses and I admit I had never made this type of connection before. Pick up a player, clean him up and make him look nice, then send him packing at a premium before he turns back into a pumpkin. The ultimate flip of course would be the Broncos and Tim Tebow. It's hard to think of this being as easy to do in baseball as it is for a quarterback in the NFL, where you can mold the rest of the team to play towards the quarterback's strengths and hide his weaknesses. If this strategy could be pulled off in baseball the team pulling it off would deserve a section in the hall of fame.
  3. Doomtints
    I think the Twins have players with more potential than Dozier, though sure right now he is one of the best if not the best player on the team. But at the same time, Dozier is not an elite player. If the best player on the team has a career OPS+ of 108, you're in trouble. You won't lose much by letting him go. If the market is ripe to dump off a 108 OPS+ guy who is overrated defensively and come out ahead, I don't think any GM would hesitate to trade him. Dozier is a great player for a team looking to plug that last hole, but on his own he's not going to lead a team to the playoffs.
  4. Doomtints
    Not being out of gas by the end of the contract is certainly relevant. Being able to trade or re-sign him at the end of the contract is certainly relevant. And no one mentioned the type of prospect Dozier would be flippable for. The point is the Dodgers could get SOMETHING for Dozier, which as you know is infinitely better than getting nothing for Kinsler. A Kinsler trade is precisely the type of trade Twins fans like to get blue in the face over as being bad for the team. Maybe you're not one of "those guys" and if not, kudos to you. But there are a dozen reasons Dozier would be a smarter move for any team. Trading for Kinsler would be a desperation move which is entirely unnecessary because there is (probably) a better comp available on the market.
  5. Doomtints
    I have always felt that Kinsler has been underrated/overlooked in his career. But now he's old and coming off an unsustainable year. If the Dodgers are seriously looking at trading for him now, they're not thinking forward. They should have picked him up earlier if they were interested. Dozier is also coming off of an unsustainable year, but he is younger, cheaper, and more durable. He certainly has more good years ahead of him than Kinsler does. If Dozier doesn't work out, the Dodgers could flip him for a prospect later on. Kinsler, not so much. Seems like a no brainer. If the Dodgers have a laser focus on Kinsler right now with a guy like Dozier on the table, they're making a mistake. Though I must say it would be nice to get Kinsler out of the division.
  6. Doomtints
    Good to go young with the position players, but I would look for a geriatric looking for one final year like what the Twins did with Hunter. The start of 2016 was disastrous for the hitting and I think a part of that was they were missing the old timer who could tell them to stop worrying about being perfect. As you are going even younger than the Twins were in 2015 and 2016, I would supplement with a veteran. As far as pitching, it's almost like there are no wrong answers at this point. I have yet to see anyone with the magic bullet as unfortunately there isn't one. This is why my feeling is to just blow it all up. Cut/trade half of what we have, and the other half have a 1-year trial period. Finish the job next offseason.
  7. Doomtints
    If the guys trust Molitor, he won't have to turn blue explaining the reasons for his decisions. He can just say "Use this shift" and they should do it. Molitor can debrief a team captain who can get into the deep explanation if anyone cares. Likely no one will care, apart from his bosses. I'm sure they already have discussions about which pitches to expect.
  8. Doomtints
    Does he need to explain it to the players? I can't think of a scenario where he would need to. If he is making daily and in-game lineup decisions based on analytics and matchups, no one is going to be out of the lineup for long. The days of someone riding the pine for a week or more would be in the past. The bigger question is does Molitor have the capacity to properly analyze and memorize everything available. This would be a full time job in and of itself. Does he want to stay up until midnight analyzing every possible matchup for each game? He will have to memorize this stuff because the MLB doesn't allow printed analytics or computers in the dugout.
  9. Doomtints
    Rosario was bad in April/May last year, along with the rest of the team. He was good from July on after he rejoined the team. That's not a bad sophomore slump.
  10. Doomtints
    I'm probably older than you are, which is why I understand that the elite managers consumed all of the numbers available to them. Bill James did not come out of a vacuum. There are many books I can point you to. "The Numbers Game" might be a good start. If you have ever read "Baseball Digest" you'll know that its entire run was devoted to obscure statistics and obscure players. There is another book (I forget the title) which covered a top-tier manager's pre-game routine in minute detail (sorry, I forget which manager, but he was managing long before Fangraphs was around).
  11. Doomtints
    It's good that Park is willing to work hard to prove he belongs on the team. Let's hope he realizes that there are 50-100 other players trying to prove the same thing and he uses that to go the extra step.
  12. Doomtints
    I read the headline "Molitor open to using more analytics" as "Molitor open to saving his arse and keeping his job." Being receptive to analytics is a good career move for him unless he is planning to retire in a year. All of the great managers in our lifetimes were huge on analytics and this probably goes back even further. They weren't using modern sabermetrics of course, but they were digesting numbers nonstop and using this knowledge to make decisions. To think one can succeed in baseball and not look at available analytics is folly.
  13. Doomtints
    I especially like this part: "In the event that the Pirate organization does not have the financial wherewithal to meet the park's demands, there are contingency plans in place to attract other stadiums to the city. While the league has said it frowns on the idea of putting an expansion stadium in the Pittsburgh area, some have floated the idea of bringing over old Tiger Stadium, which went into forced retirement in 2000."
  14. Doomtints
    MINNEAPOLIS—After seven years of serving Minneapolis as their state-of-the-art sporting facility, Target Field, the home of the rundown, poorly maintained Twins, said Monday it is threatening to leave Minnesota unless a new team can be built within the next three years. "I love the State of Minnesota, but the Twins are an old, dilapidated club built from other teams' spare parts, and its very foundation is rotting away," the stadium said to reporters assembled in its press box. "I had every intention to stay here for the duration of my career as a ballpark, but given that I haven't seen any realistic long-term plans for improving my resident team's ramshackle condition, I would be lying if I said I wasn't thinking about taking my services elsewhere." Although Twins owner Jim Pohlad said he is doing everything in his power to keep the park in Minnesota—attempting a rebuilding process every few years, making small free-agent additions, and erecting a new six-foot-tall outfielder in left field—the stadium dismissed the moves as nothing more than "a fresh coat of paint on a team that's in danger of collapsing under its own weight." Taken from an old Onion article on the Pirates: http://www.theonion.com/article/pnc-park-threatens-to-leave-pittsburgh-unless-bett-2003
  15. Doomtints
    The most important question was missed: Q: Are you related to Irving R. Levine? Have you also considered using your middle initial in your everyday transactions?
  16. Doomtints
    The 2010 Twins were brought to you by an elite bullpen, elite defense, and hot hitting. That starting staff was barely good enough and in spite of their individual W-L records they never seemed dominant outside of Pavano. The Twins would have had a good shot at winning a playoff series had Gardenhire understood that the bullpen was stronger than the starting staff and pulled Pavano and Liriano after 5 innings. In fact, I bet they would have gone up 2-0 in that series.
  17. Doomtints
    SABR's methodology is terrible, however. Laughingstock-level terrible. SABR adds every advanced defensive stat together to make an index. Sounds OK, right? Lots of systems use indexes (like every major stock index). But what happens when more than one defensive stat measures a particular event? That event gets magnified when you add them all together. Events that are not counted by multiple defensive systems then get silenced. When an indexing system works, things only get counted once. Each defensive system starts by counting the same things, it's only by the margins where things are different. The margins are important as can be illustrated by the fact that each system produces different results. By adding each system together, you essentially end up with a metric that exaggerates some tendencies to grotesque extremes while the uniqueness of every system is tossed out the window. Remember 2015 when Dozier was considered by the media (with a straight face) to be a Gold Glove candidate, and SABR had his score near dead last in the league for defense? I know Dozier's defense has been overrated, but he's not the worst player in the league.
  18. Doomtints
    None of the three of them have strong enough bats to make this worth it.
  19. Doomtints
    The Silver Slugger and Gold Glove are popularity contests. I'm sure Dozier isn't losing any sleep right now. How many Twins have "won" the award?
  20. Doomtints
    Trading Dozier would be simple. It's getting a good return that's the tricky part. I'm betting the Twins have a realistic notion of what they can get out of Dozier. This doesn't seem like something worth worrying about. This is an experienced front office, this isn't their first rodeo. They won't dump Dozier off for nothing and they won't expect a blockbuster trade either.
  21. Doomtints
    Yeah, that was the narrative. Dozier had a promising half-season and "regression" was predicted. I never saw anything that suggested that he would not continue playing well and got a bit blue in the face about it. To the skeptics credit, however, it only took a few months into the next season before they too saw that Dozier wasn't going to fall off a cliff. As you say, Dozier has probably peaked. And the Twins have a nice prospect ready to take his place. This is the perfect storm for a trade that every GM dreams about.
  22. Doomtints
    Moves on the margins are fine for a team that is performing at the mean or better. Using this approach when the team is at the bottom is what got Ryan fired. I disagree with the small moves for positional players, but I can respect being cautious as some of them have potential. The pitching needs to be blown up, however. Half goes now, the other half gets a year to prove themselves. Harsh but it needs to be done. The Twins have a lot of work to do. Kudos for putting Sano at DH, though. The Twins will look very smart if they sew up DH for the next decade. They'll look incredibly dumb if the derail his career by forcing him to play the field and dealing with fluke injuries and carnival defense.
  23. Doomtints
    Dozier rocked last year at the same time everyone else tanked. He deserves a lot of credit for tuning out what was going on around him and mashing the heck out of the ball.
  24. Doomtints
    I It wasn't just Buxton. Gladden pointed it out when this happened many times last year, I think he got sick of hearing it. Rosario was another favorite target.
  25. Doomtints
    I don't know that I would release position players who are under contracts. I like the pitching staff update (even if they seem a bit Bill Smithesque). I think the position player moves would, at best, result in the same caliber of offense but with less youth (i.e., less of a future). Defensively you mostly upgraded. Overall I like what you did here but this plan would be impossible to pull off. Most of the other plans stuck to moves that are somewhat possible.
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