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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Agreed on all fronts. Hicks is at least a 4th OF. Most teams have weak hitting 4th OF that can play all three OF positions and pinch run. He does these things at least as good as the Schafer and Robinson, but obviously has some upside too
  2. tobi0040
    My question is, if he can only get on base 28% of the time and he k's nearly 40% of his at-bats in AA, how does that translate to the big leagues?
  3. tobi0040
    About once a year I see Walker's HR total and get excited. After about three seconds of digging into his numbers that excitement fades. 8 HR's are really good. .235 average, .282 OBP. 40 K's in 110 PA. Only 7 BB.
  4. tobi0040
    I take a pretty simplistic view here. Schafer and Robinson are not part of the future in MN. We know that for sure. Hicks may or may not be part of the future, we don't know. And in 30-60 days, we will likely have our CF for the next 10+ years. So the window to get Hicks reps closes pretty quickly. He went down, and yes it is a smaller sample. But he produced. The concerns were batting average and slugging. He is killing it down there on both fronts (.330 and .553). Give the guy another 30-60 days up here and see how he responds. In the end we should have more clarity.
  5. tobi0040
    Buxton would be under control for the next 7 years, thru age 28. We will owe him $2M for the first four years combined ($500K each), then worst case about $30M total for the next three. I calculate him being owed $32M over the next seven years. The Twins will either get Buxton, and Sano for that matter to take a long term deal at a discount (and overpay in the beginning) or trade them. I don't see the Twins handing either an 8-10 year deal in the $35-$40M range per season. Especially if they are buying years primarily in their 30's. I don't think that approach makes much sense.
  6. tobi0040
    Agreed. I think the Twins have two things going for us right now. Really good, cheap prospects and some payroll wiggle room. If we traded, say Sano and Berrios for Cole Hamels I think you kind of use up both assets that we have for one player.
  7. tobi0040
    Agreed that you can't plan around a Howard or Trout like entrance to the big leagues (MVP's early on). But if Trevor Plouffe is worth $4.8M in arb2, then I think Buxton could be worth $7-8M without setting the world on fire in arb4. And I think if you are his agent that amount goes almost dollar for dollar to any extension they sign, along with the potential risk of him being north of $10M. I guess you can put me in the camp that he is not up before the deadline.
  8. tobi0040
    Here is my understanding of the various deadlines. If true, I think it would cost the Twins way more than a few million. If I have this correct, we won't see Buxton until the second deadline passes. The first deadline, 12 days into the season gives the team an additional year of control (7 years instead of 6). In the case of Bryant, the Cubs get an additional year of control. They pushed his free agency off a year. The second deadline, usually about mid June takes the one additional year and makes it an arbitration year instead of a rookie year. Promote before second deadline, 500k, 500k, 500k, arb 1, arb 2, arb 3, arb 4. Promote after second deadline, 500k, 500k, 500k, 500k, arb 1, arb 2, arb 3. Swapping a fourth year of arbitration for a $500K deal could be $10M. Plouffe is near $5M now I think in arb 2. Ryan Howard was over $10M years ago. Papelbon avoided arbitration one year at $12M. Even if we want to extend him well prior to that, the what he could make without the extension would certainly be a negotiation point.
  9. tobi0040
    Wrong team! The Pirates did a very similar thing with Polanco though. Just not quite as obvious.
  10. tobi0040
    The Twins have the pieces to get Cole Hamels. But we are not trading Buxton or Sano for him.
  11. tobi0040
    To question #2. Yes. Danny Santana won't be a center piece for Hamels. And I think Nolasco has negative value right now.
  12. tobi0040
    You can throw the Pirates in there too. Last spring, they offered Springer a 7 year deal prior to making his debut and when he rejected the deal, they sent him to AAA. Most believe he would have made the team had he signed. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24493001/report-george-springer-rejects-seven-year-23-million-offer-from-astros
  13. tobi0040
    These are valid points, specifically about the breaking ball. We need our scouts to confirm that he won't be exposed against major league breaking balls.
  14. tobi0040
    I think this statement needs a caveat. Not too long ago, they were regarded as the cheapest and/or ownership group with very little integrity and as of lately have made decisions that counter that reputation. Remember 2012 when he basically traded every player on his team making more than the minimum.
  15. tobi0040
    Now that you mention that. He needs to be up by June 6.
  16. tobi0040
    I would definitely have a stat guy in AA taking these metrics down. BA, slugging, etc. by pitch type. Guessing we already do that.
  17. tobi0040
    He has a cannon. I give you that. He has not looked as fast as this 5 tool guy I have heard about for years. But his routes and angles have been at times terrible. His DWAR over basically a full season is +.3, and that is at a premium position. Meaning he probably gets more than +.3 credit simply because he plays CF. His UZR in CF was negative in both 2013 and 2014, -12 in total.
  18. tobi0040
    He has played 23 games. If I was to project the last 10 games it would be even more ridiculous. I was responding to the notion that we needed a hard and fast rule on BA in 23 games. The fact is, he has 11 extra base hits in 23 games. That is really, really good.
  19. tobi0040
    I have not seen superior defense out of HIcks. He should be superior to Arcia in LF or Hunter in RF, but compared to the average OF he has not lived up to expectations defensively.
  20. tobi0040
    I am not setting hard and fast rules for his BA. On a 162 game schedule, he is on pace for 21 HR, 21 2B, 35 3B, and 35 SB. That is elite.
  21. tobi0040
    I think it comes down to Terry's view on his offensive development. Because you could argue that he would be an above average defensive CF and a menace on the basepaths right now. If he keeps hitting in AA anything like what he is doing right now, I think he is up by about July 1 at the latest. On a side note, when Buxton is up it becomes pretty difficult to see how Aaron Hicks gets reps on this team. So it was telling to me that Rosario got the call over him.
  22. tobi0040
    In a month he will have about 50 games at AA. If he has an OPS that starts with an 8, I could see him up.
  23. tobi0040
    When will Buxton be called up? He is ripping up AA (.880 OPS, 3 HR, 5 3B, 7 SB). We have seen Terry move position players quicker, like Santana, Vargas, Arcia, and Hicks. We have a need in CF. And I think they would love a little extra buzz this year. I think after the super 2 deadline he is up.
  24. tobi0040
    Outside of different results, I am not sure what makes him a 2.0. I haven't heard a peep about attitude or work effort. I hope he has changed. But we should promote him. Buxton is on fire at AA. The window of reps is not huge here.
  25. tobi0040
    Very cool. The Mariners are better.
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