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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Santana's K rates the last two years were 22 and 26%. Eduardo 20 and 23%. Eddie is at 37%.
  2. tobi0040
    But he never walks and his slugging is nothing to write home about. .233 average, .250 OBP, OPS of .617. In the same zone has Hicks in years 1 and 2. History is not kind to guys that K 37% of the time and never walk, always chase out of the zone. I think the numbers will actually get worse as teams learn his tendencies.
  3. tobi0040
    I would send him down to AAA to work on his approach at the plate. I think he could provide a ton of value if he starts taking more pitches. The defensive value plus a better approach at the plate I think is his ticket to sticking on this team next year (in a corner OF spot). We have a ton of competition there. Rosario, Arcia, Hicks, Kepler, Sano/Plouffe potentially all going for two spots.
  4. tobi0040
    Over his last five starts, Meyer has shown pretty good control. 10 BB's in 26 IP. Four of those were in one start (he had 11 in his first two starts). That is a rate of 3.7 per 9 in his last five, but he has been very hittable this year. 44 hits in 34 innings. I wonder if he is constantly behind in the count and grooving his fastball a lot? It is still hard to imagine his grooved fastball at 97 giving up that many hits to AAA hitters. But that is what the folks at fangraphs are telling me. He has never given up a ton of hits, so hopefully if he keeps the BB's in check the numbers will normalize for him.
  5. tobi0040
    If he could sustain a 23% K rate I think he gets to the big leagues, even if he only takes 40 BB a year. But that is pretty far off his career norms.
  6. tobi0040
    Gonslaves is in my top ten.
  7. tobi0040
    I don't think they are wrong, nor do I think the Twins would be wrong to put Buxton in AAA. I just would not given that we have 3-4 CF types on the MLB roster and Arcia coming off the DL soon. I would rather leave Hicks spot open because it is likely we will need to send someone down. I don't want to promote Buxton just because Hicks or Rosario need to go down, or DFA and lose a guy.
  8. tobi0040
    He is just bored of the league, too easy.....
  9. tobi0040
    I agree, I see no compelling reason to put him at AAA. I hope before mid-season he goes from AA to the big leagues.
  10. tobi0040
    Given the circumstances, I would keep him in AA and promote him from there. If you backill a spot for Rosario or more importantly Hicks in AAA, you would hate to be boxed into a positon where you have to demote Buxton back to AA, not be able to give someone that needs reps time, or promote Buxton earlier than you want to in order to make room (if someone else flops in the big leagues). Robinson or Schafer could end up back in AAA too.
  11. tobi0040
    Buxton is the only sure thing among the rest of the guys. If he is ready, you make room.
  12. tobi0040
    I think Buxton is moving about as quick as we could have ever hoped, given last year.I think he will be up about mid June and would have likely been at least a Sept. callup last year and started this April. Apart from plucking him from high A as a 19 year old (faster than Trout), this June is about the earliest he could have been up.
  13. tobi0040
    I am happy for them both but I think it is somewhat natural to compare. You can play the what if game and of course, rip on the GM of the team that passed on the "better player".
  14. tobi0040
    That is crazy. I would still rather have Buxton. I think he ends up impacting the game in more ways than Correa.
  15. tobi0040
    Right on ash. I told Terry my guy says he is ready.
  16. tobi0040
    Agreed. Trout had the 21st best season in mlb history by WAR two years ago at 20. As it relates to buxton. I stick by mid June if his OPS starts with an 8 by then. He is 1 for 1 and terry saw him open the game with a HR tonight.
  17. tobi0040
    In 2000, total revenue was $3.4B. In 2007, it was $6.1B. An increase of 79% while the top player only went up about 10%. From 2007 to 2014 revenue went up another 31%, while the top player went up about another 10%. They may go up, but I think the impact of the new cable deal has been overblown. Last off-season was not crazy. And I just don't think they get to a point where $40M for Harper is a bargain in the next 5-7 years. http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5919:an-18-year-look-at-mlb-revenues-and-how-it-impacts-free-agency&catid=26:editorials&Itemid=39
  18. tobi0040
    My market expectations are much lower than yours. From 2000 to 2007, the highest paid player was making $25M (A Rod). From 2007 to about 2014 the highest paid position player was making $27.5M (A-Rod). Cabrera's deal in 2014 was is the highest AAV for position players at $29.2M (Kershaw is at $32M). A total of 16% growth in 14 years for position players. Not to mention, Trout and Miguel Cabrera are much better than Harper.
  19. tobi0040
    The issue I see is the best two players from that list are Sano and Plouffe. And Sano has 7 ER in 24 games this year. So I am just becoming less sure he sticks at 3B. If we keep them both, that is 3B and one corner OF. Byron is in the middle. So now Walker needs to jump Arcia, Rosario, Hicks, Kepler, Harrison, etc. and I sure hope 250/300 is not good enough to accomplish that. You can't DH with 250/300.
  20. tobi0040
    Stanton's deal averages only $25M and we don't know how good Buxton will be. We are putting him in the same category as a guy (Trout) who has had some of the best seasons statistically before his 23rd birthday. Or a guy who has won a triple crown. You never know. Buxton is supposedly really humble and down to earth. Maybe throwing 5-125 on top of his 7 years of control when he is 24 years old will be Ok with him. The only caveat here is the last time I thought this about a player, it was Joe Mauer. Charley Walters wrote that he invested his $5M signing bonus wisely and that could take care of his finances for the rest of his life because he was so frugal. That was before the $40M deal, which was before the $184M deal.
  21. tobi0040
    Ordinarily, I would agree with you and keep him down another 2-4 weeks. But with the Buxton dynamic, literally being as close as 30-45 days away I bring Hicks up now.
  22. tobi0040
    I am not giving up on the guy at all. But I am not counting on much of anything from him either. His K totals have actually gone up each year. Since 2013, his OBP and BA rates have also gone down each year.
  23. tobi0040
    I suppose it would go up a bit. David Price won almost $20M in arb 3. If we have him until he is 28, I would look to tack on 4-5 years to that down the road. That gives us a 12 year run with Buxton. He would be 33-34 then. I don't want to be paying $35M a year for a 35-38 year old corner OF. The salaries at the very high end have actually had very little inflation since A-Rod's $25.2M per year that he signed in 2000. It took seven years for any player to break that, which was him again in 2007 at $27.5M per year. Eight years later, the highest paid position player is Miguel Cabrera at $29.2M per year. The highest pitcher is at $32M.
  24. tobi0040
    If that is what he develops to, I have a hard time seeing where he fits. Between Hicks, Rosario, Sano/Plouffe, Arcia, Vargas, Kepler, etc. I don't see Walker locking down LF/RF or DH with those numbers. I think we will have better options.
  25. tobi0040
    Agreed. Come July 1, I would argue we have four players that can play CF better than Schafer. So he would not be taking reps from any one. My list is Buxton, Santana, Hicks, and Rosario.
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