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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    The key there is "had he been a free agent that year". He would have hit free agency a year later. Instead of .365 average, 28 HR, and an OPS of 1.031, he would have hit free agency with .327, 9 HR, and an OPS of .871. Still an elite catcher, but it would have been interesting to see what he would have received. I don't think 8 years and $23M represents any material discount. Let's also not forget that he received certainty a year earlier. Had that last year been 2007 or 2011 he would have made far less than $184M.
  2. tobi0040
    The Twins were taken to the woodshed on the contract. No doubt about it. His agent could not have had any more leverage. Having said that, I thought all along that the Twins likely viewed Mauer's contract as part production and part marketing expense. He is the most visible Twin. By far the most jerseys at Target field are his and he probably brings female fans out and watching on TV. My point is, if the Twins from day one viewed his deal as $16M player and $7M goodwill/marketing then it is not really fair to expect the player to play up to $23M.
  3. tobi0040
    He is also disruptive on base. Seemed to totally mess with the Texas closer yesterday, who then got behind in the count and gave up a hit.
  4. tobi0040
    Completely agree. The .321 OBP is pretty telling.
  5. tobi0040
    Wow
  6. tobi0040
    Agreed. It is not in the plans. I think Joe needs to be in the sub .700 OPS range for another 12-18 months before the Twins even take 25% of his reps.
  7. tobi0040
    Joe actually had a lower OPS at this point last year, but still ended the season at a .737 OPS. He had a higher strike out rate too, lower BB's though. I know .737 is not great, but much better than where he is at today. .267/.340/.338/.678 in 2014. 10.5% BB and 18.5% K. Ended the year .737. .261/.324/.357./.681 in 2015 8.6% BB, 15.2% K
  8. tobi0040
    Just curious, at what point would you pull him for Sano and what would you do with Joe? $23M bench player? Platoon? AAA to hopefully turn it around? DFA him?
  9. tobi0040
    Yeah, Morneau turned it around but no two are the same. I hope Joe can.
  10. tobi0040
    It was a nice shot I think a one hopper. 3b backhanded it one step to his right and fired. That guy is going to get a lot of infield hits
  11. tobi0040
    AM I think that is fair. I had him projected at 4.2 this month.
  12. tobi0040
    I will only be satisfied with a cycle and a defensive web gem.
  13. tobi0040
    AM, I looked the other day and I think the modern day record was Granderson at 23. I would not be shocked if buxton breaks that eventually, but five in 14 games would be a pace of mid 50's for a season(the all time record was 36 in the 30's). So I have the under.
  14. tobi0040
    This journey started three years ago when I was screaming at my TV because we picked him over mark Appel. Now I am really excited for the game and the future of the franchise.
  15. tobi0040
    That is the issue. If you are going to structure a contract to either give a guy $2.2M over 14 appearances of $3.9M over 55 appearances, get some upside. Madson is a good example. Or Rich Harden for a starter like we did a few years ago. If these guys are healthy they are likely going to be good. Stauffer's career numbers suggest he could be healthy and average at best. So why pay him like he will be a difference maker?
  16. tobi0040
    That is the issue. If you are going to structure a contract to either give a guy $2.2M over 14 appearances of $3.9M over 55 appearances, get some upside. Madson is a good example. Or Rich Harden for a starter like we did a few years ago. If these guys are healthy they are likely going to be good. Stauffer's career numbers suggest he could be healthy and average at best. So why pay him like he will be a difference maker?
  17. tobi0040
    He has not had an ERA+ of over 97 since 2010. i.e. he was not even league average the four prior years before we signed him. So we gave a guy that was not league average a deal that almost guaranteed him to be the highest paid reliever on thi team on a per inning basis. So the risk/reward here made absolutely no sense at all. He was no more likely to put up better numbers than Oliveros, Tonkin, or Achter. Burdi' overall ERA is no good (4.44), but he has basically done the same thing he did last year. Have a few really bad outings out of the gate (1.2 IP and 4 ER, 6 BB), then been very good (24.2 IP, 2.98 ERA, 26 K, 10 BB). And gotten better as the year has gone on. In his last 10 he has gone (17 IP, 1.56 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 21 K and only 4 BB).
  18. tobi0040
    Both Tonkin and Stauffer have been in AAA too. Tonkin sports a 1.54 ERA and .168 BA against there (16 K in 11 IP). Stauffer was somehow promoted back to the Twins after 5 IP of 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and K in 5 IP
  19. tobi0040
    I need x amount of veterans to start the year. Standard operation, especially in the pen and rotation.
  20. tobi0040
    That is exactly it. Why did we sign him in the first place when we have guys that have better stuff in AAA (Tonkin, Oliveros, and Achter), with Budi, Reed, and potentially Chargois behind them. The even bigger question is why did we structure his contract the way we did? He was guaranteed $2.2M, then $250K bonuses started at his 15th appearance. If he ended with 55 appearances he would have made $3.95M, just $700K less than Glen Perkins. So the range of outcomes were as follows: 1- He was no good and cut before his 15th appearance, which is what happened. He was at 13 appearances and warming up in the 9th last night but Graham got the last guy out. In this scenario we paid him $170K per outing. For a sake of reference, if Glen makes 65 appearances at his $4.65M it will work out to just $71K per appearance. 2- The second outcome is he pitches well enough to stick with the team and hit his 55th appearance. You have now given him the same amount of money roughly as an all star closer. What is it about his career 3.94 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, or 6.7 K per BB led us to think either of these outcomes was a good risk/reward?
  21. tobi0040
    Great pick. Decent sinker like 30% of the time.
  22. tobi0040
    I tend to agree with your timeline. I think Buxton is up quicker than most on this site think. His .800 plus OPS in AA suggests to me he is cruising through. His OPS is in the .850 range after the first ten or so games. So I don't think he has much left to learn in the minors. Not only that, he is an upgrade over our current CF offensively, defensively, and on the bases and can help this team. I also think that it will be hard for anyone to say we have delayed prospects or promoted them too slow. Vargas, Arcia, May, Rosario, Gibson, Hicks, Santana, Polanco, and likely Buxton soon. I think the 2011-2014 prospect issue was simply that. The prospects weren't very good.
  23. tobi0040
    In addition. Jay, Fullmer, and Tate were the top three pitching prospects and most scouts agreed that Jay was the most likely of the three to stick as a starter. Jay has more pitches, he is more athletic, and has a more fluid delivery. The Twins brass had to agree with these scouts or there is no chance we took the guy at #6. Terry even said a few days prior to the draft any pitcher we draft we have to feel strongly the guy sticks as a starter.
  24. tobi0040
    I think it is closer than you think. In all the minors, their offensive numbers are pretty similar. Correa .313/.392/.491/.883, 84 2B, 14 3B, 28 HR in 282 games. Buxton .293/.377/.483/.860 39 2B, 35 3B, 27 HR in 260 games. This year Correa has been better, 1.007 OPS vs. .809. Since 4/25 when Buxton has shaken off the rust he has been .292/.351/.526/.877. The other thing is Buxton is a plus CF and much better on the bases.
  25. tobi0040
    I expected a few catchers. Pretty surprising to me we had none.
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