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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    The guys in the mix here are the definition of quantity, not quality I do think O'rourke could be a LOOGY asset. I just think the rest of the pen needs to be pretty good to give him that flexibility. I am not sure we are there
  2. tobi0040
    EDIT above. My memory was off. Lincecum didn't see much time in the pen
  3. tobi0040
    My starting five would be Ervin, May, Berrios, Gibson, and Hughes. I think those are the best five starters and it would be a really, refreshing message to the team. I don't give a rip what your contract situation is, we are fielding the best team a la the Giants and Tim Lincecum, the 20m reliever. The Twins appear to have moved on from May starting, so then the 5th would be Duffy I have zero hope Berrios or May will be in the opening day rotation
  4. tobi0040
    I can't believe the Twins had him play CF for four games in 2012 (AA).
  5. tobi0040
    Danny Santana will win the job and Buxton will start in AAA. I would be surprised if Danny was on the roster in June.
  6. tobi0040
    It will be interesting if Ryan is out-hitting Kurt by a decent margin, how they split time. Because the CS numbers and framing numbers tell me that Kurt is not an elite defensive catcher.
  7. tobi0040
    Good call. I am just hoping Terry really likes Quintin on a personal level and Carlos called him one day, said his wife was nagging him and he would appreciate an excuse to get out of the house for a few months.
  8. tobi0040
    Prior to turning 25, Quintin had the following line: .228/.317/.424/.741. 14 HR in 441 PA. wRC+ of 84. Prior to turning 25, Arcia had the following line: .243/.305/.437/.741. 36 HR in 850 PA. wRC+105. I think Arcia could develop a little better eye at the plate and he has tons of room to improve against lefties. If he did those things, there is no reason why he could not have the same career as Quentin (830 OPS) and DH for the Twins for quite some time. The irony is that we are signing Carlos because of the career he has had, but could lose someone who could have the same career.
  9. tobi0040
    Yup. How quickly we forget about past low risk signings where guys would have to make the team. Bartlett went 4 for 43 in spring training with 9 k’s and 0 XBH. A .245 OPS. Kubel went 9 for 46, 17 K’s and an OPS of .571. Then got another 150 AB’s with the Twins with an OPS of .607.
  10. tobi0040
    I agree. I mean Park will be 30 in July. So we signed a 30 year old minor leager to a four year deal? I also think these deals speak volumes about the Twins view of Vargas and Arcia, and even Danny Santana making it as an OF.
  11. tobi0040
    Kind of sort of. We didn't acquire one this off-season. And Jepsen was the closer because the other had an ERA in the 7's down the stretch. The theme is a team like the Yankees who already have Miller and Betances and go out and grab another elite pen arm. I would argue we don't have two guys in that range now and clearly haven't added another
  12. tobi0040
    This is interesting. It speaks to the race to arms for the pen. Seven teams kept their closer AND signed a closer from another team (or a guy that ended the year closing games). A very different approach than the Twins http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14667817/thanks-kansas-city-royals-success-bullpen-mania-all-rage-major-league-baseball
  13. tobi0040
    I understand Hunter. He meant a lot to the Twins during a very key stretch for them. But Nick Gordon is still in A ball
  14. tobi0040
    Yeah, 2nd overall pick in 2011. Still a prospect rated in the top 20 in 2013. A lefty
  15. tobi0040
    Thanks for the tip. So it is safe to say that each team in our division has at least two non-closers in their pen with a better career ERA+ or ERA- than Fein and Jepsen.
  16. tobi0040
    I was told it was about the years, not the dollars
  17. tobi0040
    Jepsen and Fein have career ERA+ of 110 and 107. Every team in our division has at least two set up guys with a better career ERA+. Royals Davis (around 400 as a reliever). Herrera (159) CWS Duke (155 and 115 as a reliever). Petricka (120) DET Wilson (148) Al A. (127) CLE Shaw (134) Mccalister (145 in 2015 as a reliever, switched to the pen in 2014 with a 2.77 ERA with a .568 OPS against but I can’t find ERA+ with splits).
  18. tobi0040
    May was moved to the pen around the 4th of July and we traded for Jepsen on 7/31. So we had Perkins, Jepsen, May, and Fien for most of the second half. In the second half the pen was 21st in ERA, 22nd in WAR, 28th in k per 9 and 25th in FIP. It is true that Glen did fade down the stretch, but it is fair to also say that he has had a better first half three years in a row now. Also, Jepsen had an ERA about two runs lower with us than his career numbers. So he is likely to regress. I think most teams have better set up guys than we do and our depth is a huge question mark if Glen is not healthy or ineffective again. Glen's ERA the last three years (first half / second half) 2013 – 1.82 / 2.89 2014 – 2.97 / 4.84 2015 – 1.21 / 7.32
  19. tobi0040
    Good call. I would still rather have him than Milone. Much better career thus far.
  20. tobi0040
    I think we are 95% on the same page. But what we would do is different than what the Twins will do. I would have May in the rotation, without question. They won't though. And Milone should not be a lock, but I don't see them tendering him for almost $5M and not putting him in the rotation. So I think we have four locks with a heavy preference for Duffey being #5.
  21. tobi0040
    That is a quality signing by the Astros. His ERA+ was 96 last year. So he wasn't horrible. This would have made sense for us prior to tendering Milone (Milone career ERA+ is 99, Fister is 117). But right now I am not upset that we haven't added a body into the SP mix here, especially on a 1 year bounce back deal. I would like to see what we have in Duffey and don't want a rental blocking a single pitch from JO.
  22. tobi0040
    Yup, same guy really. In August we wanted a lefty, we traded for Cotts who had the same FIP as Duensing too. That was basically a 1 year, $700K deal. Now we needed a lefty because we cut Duensing, we signed Abad.
  23. tobi0040
    You had four candidates for that. Jones, Chargois, Burdi, and Meyer. Jones is gone now. Chargois and Burdi walked 5.5 and 6.6 per 9 last year and have limited time above A ball. We have no track record of promoting guys with BB rates like that. Meyer is new to the pen and has had his share of control issues too
  24. tobi0040
    They did go that route though. Correia and Pelfrey were cheap and short term deals. They contributed to the horrible play on the field, propelling the other signings.
  25. tobi0040
    Well, if keeping a veteran is proof they are not cheap, but playing a rookie isntead of signing a veteran is just a great conservative strategy then we won't see eye to eye
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