tobi0040

Based on some of the trade returns we have seen for Duensing on this site the last few years, we missed a chance to move him and keep the branches going at least another 25 years.

It is easy to understand why the trade market for Plouffe is low, when you have a guy that has 10 WAR the last three years out there for 1-5. I would not be shocked if something happens with Trevor when these guys come off the board.

That is a real interesting comp. If he was anywhere near Ordonez, that would be one of the best 4 year, $24m contracts of all time. Based on what I have read about Park, that seems like a very long shot. Mags has a career WAR of 40 and the composition of his offense doens't seem to fit Park. Mags had a .309 career average, .871 OPS and averaged only 56 k's per year.

Nice. I think the OPS slash line of .745 is very optimistic. That would have put us 2nd in baseball last year (we were 12th at .704). If the over under on our 1B and DH spots was .745 I would take the under.

Pujols through ages 32-35 averaged a 125 OPS. One of these seasons a scout said his foot was so bad he could barely move. Outside of this window, he was a top 5-10 hitter of all time. Davis through his prime, ages 26-29 averaged an OPS of 132. Outside of this period he was not a starter.

I can only speak for myself. But simply ignorning $42M because it is deferred is incredibly misleading. That is #1. But the comp between Pujols and Davis is a bad one, I didn't bring it up. My point is that I get Pujols is older during the duration of his deal. But he is a guy with a career OPS of .977, OPS+ of 159. Chris Davis is a career .835, OPS+ of 122. Those are two incredibly different players. Pujols can come down quite a bit as he ages just to fall into the numbers Davis has averaged. Pujols has been battling leg injuries and still put up an OPS+ in the 115-125 range lately in his mid 30's. He still clubbed 40 HR last year

I am not putting too much stock in his BB rate as a rookie. The guy pitched a total of 34 innings in the minors. He would have never seen the big leagues with the Twins that quickly. His stuff is really good and his overall line was good as a 22 year old. I think he improves the control numbers, it looks like his control got away from him in 7-8 of his 26 starts. Regarding the comp of Gio Gonzalez, that is my point. Gio has four full seasons with an ERA between 2.85 and 3.36. From his ages 23-29 he has never had an ERA above 3.75. My initial post was in regard to Rodon never being better than a #3. The Gio comp shows that he has that potential.

I totally get how deffered money works and the time value of money. But the initial post said it was $17M a year for 7 years. That ignored the fact he is still owed $42M. Even if that is only worth 50-75% less because it is deferred it could still impact future teams. Regarding the Pujols comp. I am not sure that is helping the case for Chris Davis. Pujols was on the trajectory of a top 5 or 10 hitter of all time and that contract does not look like it is going to age well. Granted it is longer and he was two years older when it started. But Davis has had two good years and been relatively pedestrian outside of that. Pujols was never pedestrian prior to his deal.

Rodon had a 3.75 ERA and struck out a batter an inning as a 22 year old. That alone leads me to believe even most naysayers would agree he at least has #1 or #2 potential. I personally believe Berrios has #1 or #2 potential and I would be pretty happy with a similar debut next year.

They are going to pay Davis 161 million for 7 years of his services. Deferrals or not, it should be viewed as a 23 million a year deal. That is an awful lot for a DH. Especially one that has been up and down (career OPS of .835) and will be 30-37 for the term.

This is entirely logical. But it seems like through the years the Twins value their own relievers over the markets. Which is kind of ironic given the performance the last few. We would rather roll over guys like Duensing, Fein, Burton, etc. year to year. So I would not at all be shocked if Jepsen was extended to a deal that mirrors the one's we deemed excessive this offseason, i.e. more than one year and $4M a year.

In 2014, our two had a WAR edge of 9.1 to 7. Last year it was 5.9 to 4.9 in favor of the Sox combo. The issue is Sano at 3B may approach the WAR of Frazier and Lawrie. I just hope his defense doesn't negate a chunk of his WAR like Jose Abreu. Where a 7 WAR bat is a 5 WAR player

USA Today I suppose. It was a comment more aimed at the last few offseasons I guess. I am sure some were losing it when they traded for Frazier. But they were going to run away with the division when they got The Shark. LaRoche. Melky. Robertson. Abreau. Dunn, etc. For a team that hasn't made the playoffs since 2008, they have won a lot of the off-seasons the last few years.

I think this is a team we freak out about every year, then they go out and underwhelm. I am not predicting them to be a top two team in the central. If they proved me wrong I would not be shocked, but I am done freaking out about them until they prove it.

Agree with Thrylos. This was likely not news to the Twins. Also, the Twins have no incentive to tell their opponents things like he has trouble picking up the pitch in the sun. I would just say, Joe doesn't strike me as the type of guy that would exaggerate this to explain his numbers or struggles. I completely believe him and just have to say it has to be very frustrating. He was a top five or ten trajectory catcher of all time. Gets a big deal and gets a concussion and people rip on him because he makes too much and isn't performing.

I have been active on many threads about the pen, I don't think anywhere close to the majority had said we should sign 2-3 relievers to 2-3 year deals. From what I have seen, most wanted one good reliever in the back of the pen. We were 23rd in most metrics last year. Glen has been worse the last three years in the second half and he is the only one with a contract in 2017. Seems logical to me and I don't think we run the risks of blocking anyone.

It is hard to say because I don't follow other teams. But we knew we had a hole, said it was a priority, and did nothing about it. Knowing that we may address it later. Just because other teams make trades at the deadline doesn't mean they knew they had a hole in March. Maybe they got hit with injuries or a guy that can usually be counted on faltered.

I agree that has historically been the approach. I just don't get why we need to wait 100 games into the season to upgrade a spot that clearly needs it. It has been management/ownerships approach and they talk about it every offseason. Something to the effect of "we can add mid-season", as if that is somehow a supportive statement. It has always rubbed me the wrong way. We will see where we are at after 100 games and then decide at that point if we should make an investment.

Well, Jepsen had 69 if you add TB and Perk had 57 and missed three weeks. I would say the Twins starters didn't help. Graham made it tricky and they were also not good enough

Not to mention, inexplicably keeping J.R. Graham on the roster all year at a 63, almost all low leverage innings did not help (4.95 ERA). Hiding him all year did not help I am really glad we didn't pick up and roster another reliever this year. 2014 was Graham's third go round at AA and he had a 5.58 ERA across 73 IP. This isn't the type of guy you target and roster all year in a pennant race.

There is a lot of truth here. But Joe has been a .720 or .730 OPS guy the last two years. So a guy like Kepler would have to really, really push that in order to see significant reps. Like the way Morneau was hitting in AAA before being promoted. I think .720 or .730 is not bad enough to bump the $23M fan favorite. It should be, just don't think it will be.

The article mentions 18 people going for 3 spots. Seth's comment suggests Tonkin and Nolasco will earn two of them, at least early on. So we have 16 people interviewing for one job. It begs a few questions for me: -If you have a pen that was bottom third, borderline bottom quartile in the league last year with the cream not really rising between these sixteen to eighteen guys, doesn't that speak volumes about the level of talent we have interviewing? Now I get that 3-4 are on minor league deals, and a few will get DFA'd, and a few others may need another month but still. -Do we have enough reps in spring training, or even in April to evaluate the best relievers? I would argue that if a star does emerge from outside of the younger controlled guys like Burdi, Reed, etc. Aren't they at least as likely to emerge with another team? -It seems like our strategy has been to dumpster dive in FA for the pen. But at the same time make significant investment in the draft aimed at finding relievers. I wonder at what point the Twins will look back and evaluate the opportunity costs of so many early picks (1st through 5th rounds) as well as the hit rate on these picks. 2008 - First round (Gutierrez) 2009 - 2nd and 3rd round (Bullock and Tootle) 2011 - 3rd round (Williams) 2012 - first round, second x 2, and 4th (Bard, Melotakis, Chargois, Jones) 2014 - second round, third round, and fifth round (Burdi, Cederoth, and Reed) Some of these are still a little young. But so far the yield has not matched the investment and given you can sign above average relievers for $3-5M a year on shorter deals, I wonder if these are smart investments. Heck, wouldn't the signing bonuses of these picks vs. signing FA relievers be in the same ballpark

Deduno, after the Jepsen trade and moving May to the pen our overall rank was still 23 ish. Granted, Perkins collapsed then. But to be fair, Perk has collapsed the last two years and Jepsens ERA with us was about 2 runs lower than his career. I think it is at least as likely that we see regression out of the best 2015 stories and our lack of talent is exposed

Right. But I don't recall a time when we have had so many bodies in the rotation and lineup (sans catcher), with a pen that was bottom third in the league, certainly not with Target Fiekd. So it was so obvious that the pen was the focus, Terry went out and said it is a priority. So I guess I don't understand what happened since. The young guys were there when the comment was made. Why not just say we will have a better pen because young guys will step up?

any thoughts from Nick and Seth about how we went from the pen being a priority to the group of minor league signings? In fact, Boyer was a primary set up guy and hasn't been signed yet