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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    If Murphy has a 700 OPS, it would be hard to say this was not a good trade for the Twins. Hicks does not have the upside of Buxton, Sano, or Kepler and is going to get more expensive than Rosario. And we just don't have anyone in our system that can put up a 700 OPS as a catcher.
  2. tobi0040
    I will say that if Murphy is sniffing a .744 OPS, these two better not be splitting reps. There is just no reason for that. Time to stop giving in to veterans.
  3. tobi0040
    The article sounds like Sano needed to be in RF in order to get his bat in the lineup. The more accurate statement is that He is in RF so we can have Plouffe or Park in the lineup. Sano is hopefully going to be in the lineup for a long time
  4. tobi0040
    I think what gets people frustrated (myself included) is that it is hard to look at May and the other starters and conclude that in terms of upside and stuff, that we have five better pitchers. And we are likely to have used 2.5 years of control of a guy like that in the pen for about 100 relief innings.
  5. tobi0040
    I don't consider things like k rates, FIP, WAR, stuff, and BB as rose tinted glasses. Those are predictable stats. In fact MayMade the exact strides you would want out of a younger starter from his first cup of coffee in 2014 to 2015 Most agree starters are more valuable and you do too. Earlier I posted Roger Clemens career WAR was 140 and Mariano Rivera's was 55. I am simply suggesting we give him time as a starter so we can make a conclusion It very well could be that May would make a better reliever, but we simply don't know that based on one year where he did a little of both. We should also acknowledge that relievers in general have better numbers starters based on inherent advantages like split innings, shorter stints, stamina, only facing the lineup once, etc.
  6. tobi0040
    This day and age, teams are usually tied via at least a rumor to who they are going after. It was the case with Ervin, Nolasco, Pelfrey, etc. The best rumor we had was that we would be interested in a top reliever for 1 and 3-4 million and he signed for 2-12.
  7. tobi0040
    Of the six guys still in the hunt, only Duffey is younger than May. And I was not suggesting that we never sign anyone over 27. It would be very difficult to field a team from ages 22-27 and make a run at a world series. But in the context of building a team and needing to supplement the team in free agency to add talent and fill holes, I think we are going about this the wrong way. Studies have suggested that 1 WAR is roughly $7M in free agency. When they hit FA, Nolasco averaged about 1.2 WAR per season. Ervin has averaged 1.7 WAR per year. So their contract values are in line with this estimate, they were paid slightly more than $7M. But you have a guy like May making $400k that had over 1 WAR in June last year. That is the guy I am giving 200 innings to. The best thing that can happen for the Twins right now is they conclude in about two months that Duffey with his two pitches and May with his four should be switched. May has the build and the stuff to be a better starter and I think Duffey would make a very solid reliever.
  8. tobi0040
    Well W-L is an interesting way to evaluate a pitcher (Ricky Nolasco was 5-2 last year with a 6.75 ERA). But if Milone was very valuable, we could have traded him for a reliever. That would likely be a better course of action. It is also interesting to suggest we don't want a FA in a decline phase. Given guys on 6-7 years of team control and studies suggesting players peak around 27, aren't we just throwing out that avenue altogether? You are likely on to something though. Given the availability of above average relievers on 2-4 year deals and average starters in larger dollar, 4-6 year deals, maybe we should be signing relievers in FA and keeping guys like May in the rotation vs. shelling out for guys like Nolasco and Ervin, then moving May to the pen. I would take it a step further and question the amount of 1st-4th round draft picks we used on relievers from about 2007 to today and use those on starters. Mark Lowe and Steve Cishek would have been two examples for 2-10, roughly the same per year as Milone's 4.5m
  9. tobi0040
    I think the Twins think that May can start the same way they thought Sano could play 3B. Just enough to let the guy down slowly over a three year period.
  10. tobi0040
    I want to point out that we could have easily not tendered Milone and allocated that $4m to a reliever and accomplished this. May in the rotation and a FA reliever.
  11. tobi0040
    May had the same odds to make the rotation as Mauer had to be cut
  12. tobi0040
    I will give it a try. 1 – May has not failed as a starter and we don’t know at this point if he would make a better starter or reliever. He simply does not have the innings yet. 2 – Roger Clemens career WAR is 139. Mariano Rivera’s career WAR is 55. 3 – Until we can conclude he is not going to be a good starter, that is a lot of wins we are leaving on the table.
  13. tobi0040
    I am taken back by how some have already concluded May will be a better reliever than starter. Do we really have a big enough sample already? You could rattle off dozens of pitchers that needed two times the innings May has had before the peripherals turned into actual results
  14. tobi0040
    What is interesting to me is the varying views regarding May and Gibson. Both of these guys had a terrible ERA their first 50 innings. The next year they put up an ERA in the mid 4's starting (May with better k numbers). Then May goes to the pen. Gibson the next year has a 3.84 ERA. Still not great peripherals and a majority of the folks on another thread want to extend Gibson 4-5 years.
  15. tobi0040
    I am not surprised and like others think he should be starting. But it has to be a tough pill to swallow to hear the guy that tendered Milone, still has Nolasco in the mix and had all offseason to find a reliever (and didn't try) say, we just need you in the pen for now.
  16. tobi0040
    Even if he hits righties at a .750 clip, Park is nowhere near a lock to do that. He struck out over 30% of the time against righties last year in Korea (with about half the BB rate)
  17. tobi0040
    But if he can sniff an .800 OPS against righties (career average), who else will accomplish that at the DH position? With the defensive flexibility on our roster and the fact that he is making peanuts still, I would like to see someone put up those numbers before cutting him loose.
  18. tobi0040
    The site was likely shut down due to no traffic. I can't remember. I just remember we all wanted to go to a country known for good food. Like Italy, China, etc. Nope, we ended up at the Norweigan buffett because it was all you can eat. Smelled like fish, nobody in there, a general bad experience. I am bringing my family down to Disney next Friday. A photo op will be had if Norway is still there. It has been a punch line for 22 years. Where should we eat? The Norweigan buffet
  19. tobi0040
    Nope, Lefsa. It was like a soft taco shell. Not neccesarily gross, but when you are told you need to fill up on it....the 10th one is pretty gross
  20. tobi0040
    Especially give him a shot to exclusively hit against righties. He is making peanuts so what is the risk?
  21. tobi0040
    All he has to do is chill out. Take a deep breath. And if his career ends up being a platoon guy he can still play 80 percent of the time and make 20 million dollars.
  22. tobi0040
    Color me skeptical. About the Lefsa that is.
  23. tobi0040
    I am going over. We forget how good Matt Moore is and he is back. Good top of the rotation with intrigue 3-5. They usually platoon their way to a surprising offense.
  24. tobi0040
    What if Arcia is hitting righties with an OPS of .800 or so and Park is hitting them .730 or so? I think it is reasonable. Arcia has a career .807 OPS against righties. Park’s splits last year (limited data points) Righties .329, 30.6% k rate. 13% BB rate. Lefties .368, 25% k rate, 22% BB rate. http://eng.koreabaseball.com/Teams/PlayerInfoHitter/SituationsPitcher.aspx?pcode=75125
  25. tobi0040
    Yup. Totally on the same page. It will be interesting to see if they start being more flexible or not. If they don't, I have a hard time getting very optimistic about the franchise even as a young, talented group may emerge. I feel like we will always spot certain teams 1-3 wins every year.
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