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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Agreed. I was very much on the re-sign Suzuki bandwagon. But Terry has been very savvy in the last few years. The timing and return on the Span and Revere trades come to mind. I think the catcher injuries and lack of depth among playoff teams may yeild a Suzuki trade that we may be happy with.
  2. tobi0040
    Maybe it is just me, but it would take more than just one prospect rated 25th. That is in the Berrios/Stewart range. With Dozier, I think we are starting to know what we can expect. Very good defense, 20-20+ potential, a guy that gets on base, etc that plays a scarce position. Many prospects in that range may simply "project" as having a simlar trajectory as Dozier and frankly, a good chunk of them won't hit that projection. Some may never stick in the big leagues and some may end up being bench players.
  3. tobi0040
    Jack, Can you speak to the perception that the Twins are behind the curve when it comes to things like sabermetrics, platooning, defensive shifts, etc? How much influence do you and your team have with the Twins and do you feel your department would have more influence with other teams? What is a statisticians view on the importance of carrying three catchers, you know, just in case? Thank you for your time.
  4. tobi0040
    Every number but his BB rate this year says he has nothing left to accomplish in the minors, IMO. That isn't to say he won't struggle, but it is all relative. I think a K rate of 27% negates the higher walk rate to an extent. His 4.3 BB per 9 is not awful. In total, I think he has dominated every level thus far (3.06 ERA) with a 10.4 K per 9 rate. That number has not tailed off as he moved up like most do. Given that we are in rebuild mode, it is a borderline travesty that we saw Pino over M or M, in my opinion. Kris Johnson should not see the field until both M and M have been up.
  5. tobi0040
    Burdi had the initial rough outing, but outings #2 and #3 were both 1 IP, 1 H, 3 K's.
  6. tobi0040
    Agreed on all points. This is not the right regime for handling young players.
  7. tobi0040
    When is the last time the Twins have had more than two consistent starters on their team? 2010?
  8. tobi0040
    I hope you are very, very wrong here but I can't lay down any money on this one. We probably want to see Pino get more starts, May, Kris Johsnon, see what we have in Scott Diamond, etc.
  9. tobi0040
    He is coming off two pretty good years. Interesting. Bet he is glad he took a discount.
  10. tobi0040
    It goes beyond Deduno though. Pelfrey had a 7.99 ERA. In 18 starts, Corriea has failed to reach the 5th inning three times and has 8 starts with 4 ER or more. So Meyer goes 4 or 5 IP in those three "inconsistent" starts without an innings limit and he spread around 7 ER in those 3 starts.
  11. tobi0040
    The only thing I can make sense of these comments and why Meyer is still in AAA would be either the futures game, or they are waiting until next June. Both make zero sense to me. The next playoff team has Alex Meyer starting game 1. Let's get his feet wet.
  12. tobi0040
    This is a difficult game. Pedro had sick movement on many of his pitches. I have not heard anyone say Berrios has great movement. Pedro's MLB numbers were at 10.0 K per 9 and a SO to BB ratio of 4.13. Berrios matched the K per 9 number and Pedro's MLB SO to BB ratio of 4.13 is higher than Berrios's 3.85, in rookie league and low A. I am high on Berrios, but comparing guys can be difficult and Pedro would obviously be the most extreme outlier of 6 feet tall pitchers.
  13. tobi0040
    The issue with waiting until next year with Meyer is three fold. 1) Based on talent, ceiling, age, numbers, he should be up this year and it is nearly impossible to refute that. 2) He is getting his feet wet a year later than he should and when we should be turning the corner, or at least seeing what we have in our top prospects. He could come up in 2015, then go back to work on x and y and you are potentially talking about 2016 3) If Meyer is not up this year or gets 1-2 starts in September, he is a guy that is now in competition for a role in 2015 out of spring training. The Twins, IMO would consider pushing him back to June 2015. It would just be 2 months. Any minor injury, slightly higher BB's, struggling in spring training could be used as an excuse to delay him.
  14. tobi0040
  15. tobi0040
    I think you are right, but I will take some inconsistency. I mean look at the guys he will likely replace, every single one has been inconsistent this year outside of Hughes. From this point to when he hits his innings limit the goal should be to let him face MLB hitters and see how his stuff matches up and what Gibson-like adjustments he needs to make. I would rather get that out of the way with this year rather than in 2015. He has the most talent at AAA, bar none and his minor numbers look like a video game (3.06 ERA and 10.4K per 9). He will be 25 in spring training next year. And, more importantly. I told my friend to draft him and stash him for his fantasy league and I am getting sick of him giving me a hard time about it!
  16. tobi0040
    After some thought, I can support this type of reunion.
  17. tobi0040
    Agreed. Put me in the camp of extremely leary of giving Gardy the option of an aging player that was good for him in the past. After the three this year, I have had my fix.
  18. tobi0040
    I guess I am wondering what else Meyer has to do? 89 IP, 3.43 ERA, 103K. His 4.3 BB per 9 is higher than you would like to see, but if you have a guy striking out 26% of the batters I would guess another walk per 9 is not as big of a deal. I did notice he pitched 99 pitches his last outing, maybe they are ramping him up for the big leauges? I hope so. Maybe it is just becuase his next outing will only be an inning in the futures game.
  19. tobi0040
    Prior to yesterdays start, his LOB % was 87.7% versus a career 73.9%. His BABIP was .222, versus a career .320. The trend of stranding runners and having balls hit right at guys ended his last start (yesterday). 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 3 K's. His ERA jumped from 2.28 to 3.03, BABIP is gravitating closer to the mean (now .270), so is his LOB % (now 78.6%). Again, let's wait until he gets at least 60 IP before we start drawing conclusions.
  20. tobi0040
    I agree, give me a pitcher in rookie league or A ball with upside over another 4th OF warming the seat for Buxton.
  21. tobi0040
    I guess I don't get it either. We are 21st in team OPS and 27th in team ERA. A starting pitcher goes to the DL and we bring up a guy that improves our defensive flexibility. He has good numbers in 33 games in AAA this year, but he has a career .732 OPS in the minors and a career .516 OPS at the MLB level in 241 AB's.
  22. tobi0040
    While I too disagree with the entire post, I find #2 most amusing. The thought that a fan from another site would post hypothetical trades on this site, to entice the Twins fans to pressure the GM into actually making the move.....or that the Twins GM is actually reading the comments on this site and acting on it. That is interesting. I agree with TwinsNorth. Huge Twins fans post on this site and want the Twins to win. Definitely frustration by many, including me that it has taken this long and that a clear roadmap has not been laid out. 95% of the arguments relate to the best way forward as not everyone agrees.
  23. tobi0040
    I buy into the Gardy favoring veterans line of thought. 1-2 veteran pitchers without much talent per year. The likes of Guerrier, Kubel, and Bartlett to name a few just this year.
  24. tobi0040
    My point is this, we start out every season with at least one spot in the rotation set aside for a veteran starting pitcher. Historically signs for $3-$5M a year, i.e. not a good one. The fact that a majority of the starts end up going to young pitchers is proving my point, that in almost every case the 3-5M is wasted and we would have been better off not signing the guy. I would not be shocked if Pelfrey starts out 2015 on scholarship, just like he started 2013 and 2014 on scholarship because it makes the FO and Gardy more comfortable, not because he is one of the best 5 pitchers. I would be shocked if he was on the team by the end of the year. The odds of this happening increases if Nolasco needs TJ, not because Peflrey is then a top 5 pitcher, because we have fewer vets around. I would go out on a limb as well and say it is a generally accepted thought on these boards that Gardy favors veterans and it is not limited to just Ramon Ortiz.
  25. tobi0040
    I think this line of thought has a lot of merit. Gardy loves his veterans and it seems like our GM goes out each year and supplies him with at least one veteran pitcher. The best $5M he can spend on the free agent market. I am guessing they do this because they feel better with one veteran. Outside of Pavano and one year of Correia, this strategy does not appear to make sense and in almost every case a rookie could put up similar numbers. 2007 - Ramon Ortiz 5.14 ERA and Sidney Ponson 6.03 ERA. I don't think either finished the year here 2008 - Livan Hernandez - 5.48 ERA here, did not finish the year. 2009 - RA Dickey 4.62 ERA 2010 and 2011 - Carl Pavano 3.75 ERA and 4.30 ERA 2012 - Jason Marquis 8.47 ERA, did not finish the year 2013 and 2014 - Mike Pelfrey (5.19 and 7.99) and Kevin Correia (4.18 ERA and 4.79 ERA) It appears to me it is not out of the question that Pelfrey starts out next year in the rotation, which would not be based on talent or upside. If Nolsaso needs TJ or is battling another major injury, it would seem more likely in my opinion that Pelfrey starts out the year here and then is DFA'd after management gets sick of him
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