Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

tobi0040

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,776

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    10

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I get it now.
  2. tobi0040
    I am a little confused. If the Twins have changed and no longer tell pull hitters to slap the ball the other way, why would a guy up basically one year warn a player that has been up a month, "they are going to tell you to slap the ball the other way but keep pulling HR's?" If they don't do that anymore, why would Arcia tell Vargas they will? I think I am misunderstanding your post.
  3. tobi0040
    Leviathan, doesn't a recent comment from Arcia mean the twins might not have left this thinking behind?
  4. tobi0040
    Really not a way either of us will be able to convince the other on this one, especially without the other thinking they are cherry picking. I would guess, players generally improve from their rookie years. They generally become better hitters, generally more patient, etc. In the case of Arcia, if he ends up with a career .730 OPS and can't field a lick in the OF, he may struggle to stick in the big leagues. If he can become close to an average corner OF defensively and/or improves upon those offensive numbers like Torii Hunter, Carlos Gomez, Ortiz, or even Mauer he is an .800+ OPS guy. He is now making a case to bat DH if the defense does not improve or he certainly locks down a corner OF spot if he sniffs becoming an average defensive player.
  5. tobi0040
    I looked up five players, the only ones I could think of that came up with the Twins at a young age and played along time. I listed four of those players, the other was Cuddy but I felt he didn't really apply becuase his first full year was at age 25. At 25 he had a .779 OPS, career .810 OPS. He had 2 years with an OPS over .900 and 2 more over .850. It is very, very rare that you see a guy make the big leagues at age 22, have a long career and not improve upon those numbers. Typically, they k less, BB more, and develop more power as they age. My point is, if you start with a .730 OPS you may end in a very good spot.
  6. tobi0040
    I may be wrong here, but I believe both Gomez and Ortiz made comments suggesting the Twins tried to change their approach. It appears, based on Arcia's comments that he has heard the same thing, enough so that he went out of his way to warn another young player.
  7. tobi0040
    Just a little perspective on Arcia, who has a career .730 OPS at ages 22-23: First full year OPS Career OPS Age of first year Torii Hunter .689 .799 23 Carlos Gomez .657 .730 (.840 last 2 years) 22 David Ortiz .817 .925 22 Joe Mauer .783 .863 22 If you add roughly 100 points to Arcia's .730 OPS you have a very nice player. You will probably see years in the .900 range in career years To hear that Arcia's numbers are "not good at all" and that "he is a very, very ordinary player right now" begs the question, what would good numbers be for a corner OF that is 22/23?
  8. tobi0040
    He has a career OPS + of 101 and his 650 at bats have come at ages 22 and 23. If you view those 650 at bats as one full year, he has a .240 avg, 25 HR, .730 OPS. He strikes out more than I would prefer and the OBP of .303 is nothing to write home about. But at 22-23 he is a league average corner OF. Every young player could listen more, but most kids his age are in AA or AAA, so I struggle to call him ordnary. It will be an interesting time. We seemed to only draft or sign pitchers with good control and no k's and hitters that were slap style guys and that has changed. As these players are developed, will this coaching staff look to have Meyer and May throw in the zone more and pitch to contact? Get Arcia and Vargas to pull less, hack less, and walk more?
  9. tobi0040
    Exactly. Bottom line is we will have a payroll of about $60-65M next year, plus a bunch of rookies. If we wanted to, we could justify not spending money in the pen, rotation, infield, and outfield in the offseason. Next year seems to be another year to see what we have at SS, CF, DH, LF, RF, 3B, rotation, and pen. Frankly, I think we are all very happy with our play at SS and that will reverse very quickly next year. SS will could easily be a debacle. Minors This year Santana .705 OPS .852 OPS (.399 BABIP) Escobar .675 OPS 7.17 OPS (.654 MLB OPS prior to this year) I can just hear it, SS has been a real dissapointment this year. The Twins don't seem to trust Santana at SS and he has leveled off with this bat. Escobar has really struggled as well. Very surprising.
  10. tobi0040
    Agree, but the front office needs to 1) have a vision for the franchise that the manger buys into and 2) Step in when the manager is doing something that is hurting the development of a potentially good young player. These two entities, while they have different interests, need to have some level of coordination. Unfortunately we don't.
  11. tobi0040
    I agree with that. The problem with signing a guy like Joe Blanton, or Kevin Corriea, is that they are going to block a guy with more upside and I would argue May, Meyer, and Milone could easily put up the same numbers next year. So it doesn't make sense short or long term. I would be as thrilled as anyone that we signed one of those three guys. If Max Sherzer replaced Tommy Milone that would be a good move. But realistically I really only see a SS or corner OF as potential places we will spend money next off-season. If I was a betting man, I would be neither. Maybe a 4th OF and a total flier that Terry just can't seem to help himself on. Brandon Webb or Kevin Millwood on a minor league deal.
  12. tobi0040
    The Twins have the money to sign those guys, but I would be shocked if we even called their agents. I would expect prior to free agency, Terry says we won't be in on certain guys but will see whats out there, or something along those lines. If my memory serves me correct, he has made statements like this about not going after Greinke, Anibal Sanchez, and Tanaka, etc. Anibal ended up getting a lot less than these three are likely to make. Heck, Max turned down 6/144 and Anibal signed for 5/90. Regarding last year, OK. We were looking to add another arm. But Gibson has went from maybe to a yes, Hughes went from struggling guy to a lock, we added Milone, and May has really emerged.
  13. tobi0040
    Math never was my strong suit. I personally think the Twins are salivating at the chance of having three spots in the rotation making next to nothing, likely Gibson, Meyer, and either May or Milone (Milone will be a little more, but not much relative). I can't rule out Meyer in the minors for longer than we all want....but I also can't rule out the token scholarship for Pelfrey for 2 months, so we can conclude he is not good.
  14. tobi0040
    I don't buy that they view Santana as a SS. If that is the case, you don't play a 23 year old in the OF 42 times and at DH 3 times, and start him at SS 16 times in a throw away year. It is not like we have a top SS prospect knocking on the door so they want to try him out somewhere else. It kind of reminds me of when Gardy said Pinto is a catcher but never let him catch. Danny Santana has a career OPS of .708 in the minors across 7 seasons. His career OBP is .317. This year, his BABIP is .399. Eduardo Escobar has a career OPS of .654 in the minors. We could use a better OF, but I don't see us signing someone. Between Arcia, Buxton, Hicks, Rosario and potentially Plouffe moving there.....I don't see a bat added but even if we did, we would have money to add an OF and SS bat. Realistically, we are not spending money on the rotation or bullpen either. Gibson, Hughes, and Nolasco are locks. The Twins don't pay a pitcher $11M a year and owe him $33M and not give him a spot. I don't see them having Milone, May, Meyer, and Pelfrey battle for one spot. We have tons of relievers on the way.
  15. tobi0040
    A lot of factors here. -I think Escobar and Santana have outperformed this year. -I am not convinced the Twins are sold on Santanas defense -We will bundles of money -Gordon won't be up here for 3-4 years -His career OPS is .742, but has been right at .700 the last two years, OBP around .300 I would give him a go on a 2 year deal at a $6-7M clip just based on upside
  16. tobi0040
    Very interesting article. I hope we are at 5 as well.
  17. tobi0040
    Very funny, good times.
  18. tobi0040
    So Pino was not good enough to start in the rotation at Rochester. Every team has had a chance to claim this guy multiple times. He is closer to 31 than he is 30 and has a career ERA in the minors of 3.77. After 50 some innings of ridiculous LOB % and BABIP, he jumps over Meyer to the big show. Thanks jokin. Appreciate you pointing that out!
  19. tobi0040
    I agree wholeheartedly. I work for a company that fired our CEO a few months ago. He was kind of a stubborn guy that put the kibosh on major initiatives for years. As a result we were somewhat behind our competitorsin technolgoy, innovation, etc.. With him gone, we have re-explored many of the things and are moving forward to a better tomorrow. I see parallels between the company and the Twins. I think Gardy is stuck in his ways and the best way for the Twins to catch up is with a new manager and a fresh look. I am thinking saber metrics, third catchers, how we overvalue defense, the need for veterans around, etc.
  20. tobi0040
    To quote Will Middlebrooks. "who did he piss off, no way they have five guys better than him". Hughes is the only guy you can argue with the edge going to Meyer, IMO.
  21. tobi0040
    Absolutely hilarious. Here are a few more. BTO- Battling Tail Off GAI - Getting After It RSI - Really spinning it Example, Mike Pelfrey may have had a 6.00+ ERA over the last two years, but his BTO is off the chart. You need vets like that to really battle.
  22. tobi0040
    I am happy with how Terry has stacked the minor league system and happy that in August we are clearing room for guys. Key guys seem to be promoted in the minors as well. But it is hard for me to say they are making all the right moves because I keep coming back to Alex Meyer. No player may play a bigger role in turning around this franchise than Meyer. I say that with respect for Buxton and Sano. However, we have had one of the worst starting pitching ERA in the league for three years running and it will take a dramatic leap in that category to really improve the club. Meyer will play a huge role in that. Our AAA rotation at the beginning of the year was Meyer, May, Pino, Darnell, and Johnson I believe. The only one that has not yet been up is Meyer. With a rotation of May, Gibson, Nolasco, Hughes, and Milone the rest of the way Meyer won't be up unless someone gets injured. The only reasons I can come up with why Meyer has not been up is we want to evaluate the Darnells, Johnsons, etc. to see who we should keep as AAA depth next year. Or as the article alluded to, we are hoping to flip one of them. We could also sell them to an Asian team. Or we don't want to make a spot on the 40 man. These are all penny wise and pound foolish reasons, IMO.
  23. tobi0040
    Development more than evaluation, IMO. Also I think we stress defense too much. Pinto, Polanco and Santana at SS for example.
  24. tobi0040
    I count about $59M in payroll committed to 2016, then a bunch of rookies. So we have the money and Shields would be really nice. But I don't know that we would ever do that and the Nolasco signing probaly hasn't increased the likelihood. Unfortunately.
  25. tobi0040
    We should be able to find room on that 40 man for our 3rd best prospect and arguably the best pitcher in our system. Pino, Darnell, Johnson, Burton, Fryer, Parmelee, etc. I don't get why 90-100 pitches at AAA is easier on his shoulder.
×
×
  • Create New...