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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I get what you mean to an extent. I think the Twins really blew it this year and would typically agree.....but when you are 28th overall in starter ERA and have been bottom 3 for 3+ years....signing one pitcher that is better than the five you have and making the other five compete is not a bad thing, IMO. In reality, one of the five will likely get hurt by mid-April, if not in camp anyway. One may be terrible next year. Best case, they are all lights out and you move May to the pen where he can be a shut down guy.
  2. tobi0040
    An OF of Hicks, Arcia, and Buxton shading towards Arcia seems like an upgrade. The signing or trading for a very good starter seems like it makes us better.
  3. tobi0040
    I think fixing the staff should mean fixing the staff. Willie Mays is not going to make Mike Pelfrey a good pitcher. PJ Walters, Pino, etc. He can help. But let's not mistake a good outfield for good pitching. I get that it is cheaper to sign three good defensive CF. That makes us a little better defensively, but not a contending team by any stretch given the rotation and lineup those guys would bring.
  4. tobi0040
    I am not an expert here and frankly, I think the science of defensive metrics, then converting those to runs/wins is imperfect at best. But Carlos Gomez is considered one of the best defensive players. Baseball Reference has is total DWAR over the last 4 seasons at a total of 7.6. If we round up to 8, or 2 per year and put a Gomez in CF, LF, and RF we would win a total of 6 more games per season. It would seem 50 fewer runs would result in more than 6 additional wins, IMO.
  5. tobi0040
    But then you get into a situation where Hicks could be your 4th guy, but he needs at bats so he ends up in AAA (see Pinto). I just think you need to either have a significant upgrade, or let young guys figure it out. No in-between. I did not mean to go on a tangent, but the same could be said for the rotaton. Either sign a guy like Shields, or let Meyer and May duke it out. At some point we are going to need to get better players. So the marginal, below average veteran, either in LF or the rotation is not helping our cause. It is no lock that the prospects end up as high end major league talent, but the ceiling is higher than the FA's we are likely to target.
  6. tobi0040
    I have a huge bias towards trying to solve the problem long term vs. short term. I am one to stick with a struggling young guy longer than most, especially whe are going to lose 90 games anyway. Any 30+ year old on a one year deal that is not a great player just seems to be counter productive to me. Then a year from now we have not developed a younger player and we are back to where we started. It has only been 30 at bats, but Hicks is hitting .266 with 3 BB's since coming up. I think he is either here next year or cut.
  7. tobi0040
    I guess I misunderstood what you were saying then. The part about not having the player that can carry us for stretches at a time being a big componenet led to my 1 or 2 player rant.
  8. tobi0040
    A guy like Aoki may improve us defensively, but he is not a corner OF type bat. His OPS this year is .691. Both Hicks and Rosario are CF's that have been moved because of Buxton. Both would have to be large upgrades in LF defensively, while having more upside than a guy like Aoki offensively. Not to mention they make the minimum and would hopefully allow for a huge upgrade in the rotation, whether that be through FA or a trade. I like Gardner the player, but his contract does not make him valuable and they would also want prospects in return. I don't see the fit.
  9. tobi0040
    I agree, but that is with the benefit of hindsight. Not all 4 year deals in free agency turns out well. But if you lack talent, you can either wait for prospects or go after them. We have done enough waiting. I also see risk in the current Twins strategy. Just about every year since 2007 or so, the Twins have had at least one rotation spot devoted to talent-less veteran. The price range from $3M (Marquis) to $6M (Pelfrey). Some could argue we have had $11M the last few years with both Pelrey and Correia. We don't want to give a picher a 4-5 year deal because it is risky, but haven't we give the equivalent of a 5 year, $20-$30M deal to five different pitchers, wthout the upside? In the case of Livan, Marquis, Pefrey, and Ponson we haven't even had one years worth of pitcing. So $4M to pay for 10-15 starts is actually MORE expensive, not less.
  10. tobi0040
    I didn't bring up Mark B., just making a broad statement that somewhere in the league a good pitcher has 2-3 years left with a nice commitment. I think trading for a player like that is more likely than signing Max Scherzer for $160M.
  11. tobi0040
    Baseball reference has Torii in the OF for 116 games this year, with a negative 2.5 defensive WAR. Willingham has a negative 1.4 defensive WAR in 53 games in the OF. Torii's defense this year loses you a game every 46, Josh's every 37. Same ballpark. Torii's -.7 total WAR could probably be replaced by Rosario or Hicks. Not to mention free up $10M that we coud use to address the actual problem (the rotation).
  12. tobi0040
    It is bigger than one player though. We are 63-87. If we added Clayton Kershaw (7.63 WAR) and took out Nolasco (-.4 WAR), we would be 70-80 right now. On pace for 75 wins and 87 losses. Assuming our CF is replacement level, adding Trout as well (7.76 WAR) would make us 83-79. Detroit has 84 wins right now wth 12 left. WAR is not perfect, but it can help us with perspective.
  13. tobi0040
    I think something like that is much more likely than signing a top pitcher. Cliff Lee a few years back had 3/60 left. I could see the Twins giving up a prospect in exchange for a shorter commitement. In the case of Mark B., it would be more of a salary dump on their end and not require much I am guessing.
  14. tobi0040
    Not that this was intended for me, but I think the difference between a good manager and a bad one is 3 wins a year, max. The question is, is Gardy the good manager that will add 3 wins? I don't think he is. I believe he is behind the curve in platooning, playing guys out of position, advanced metricss, and lineup construction. And then you have the losing the DH fear. I personally don't see anyone blaming Gardy for 100% of the last four years. The lion share of our issues has been starting pitching, without question. But I just think people think that Gardy is closer to the problem than the solution. That is certainly what I believe and given the threads, believe that lies within the majority.
  15. tobi0040
    I agree under scenario two wher he is good three years and opts out, then stinks for 3 years it would work out well for the team. But yet another scenario exists, he is good for 3 years and we are married to him ad extend him longer. By and large, this opt out is player friendly.
  16. tobi0040
    I agree we are not doing this. I believe the high profile opt outs have all been one way though (A-Rod and CC for example). So the player can opt out after 3 but if they have a Zito like implosion the team can't opt out. That would be worst case.
  17. tobi0040
    I think most players, especially starting pitchers that are around 30 view free agency as the last chance to get as much money as they can. True 6/150 is less than 3/90 x 2. But 3/90 x 2 is way riskier. it assumes the player is both healthy and a top pitcher in the game 3 years from now. The same reason why the 6 year deal is bad for a team is why the 3 year deal is bad for the player.
  18. tobi0040
    They can release him, but I really don't see it. He pitched 152 innings at a 5.19 ERA, then got a two year deal.
  19. tobi0040
    Yeah, they just need to give spots to young players and see what we have, or sign clear upgrades and let the younger guys compete for fewer roles.
  20. tobi0040
    I think he gets 6, if not 7 years. If Detroit was going to go 6 years outside of free agency he will get that.
  21. tobi0040
    I agree that pitching should be #1. By far. Absolute best case, this team is better in four places through young players. Sano, Buxton, Meyer, and May. They need more talent than this. My ideal offseasn would involve signing a top pitcher and good LF. These have to be clear upgrades. No signing is better than a re-tread. Hoping a guy we signed on a minor league deal gets back the guy he was 3 years ago is not good enough. Hope is not a strategy. Absolute best case, this team is better in four places through young players. Sano, Buxton, Meyer, and May. They need more talent than this.
  22. tobi0040
    I see the rotation and lineup better next year, but only margially. This will still be a bad team, no doubt. Next year I see Meyer emerging and Nolasco being better. Gibson and Hughes maybe regress a bit, but are still good (Hughes) and OK (Gibson).
  23. tobi0040
    Very best case they bury him in the pen. But the Twins do not understand what a sunk cost is.
  24. tobi0040
    I don't neccesarily agree with your take regarding Pelfrey. I can see a situation where he breaks camp and gets 8-10 starts no matter how bad the those starts are, because of his contract. I hope you are right, he should make the team if he is one of the best five starters in camp (highly unlikely).
  25. tobi0040
    Given the comment about Mauer to the OF, I think this is aimed at me. Just wanted to note that I completely agree our pitching plays a huge role in the defense. I cited a correlation between the two and said that bad pitching results in hard hit balls. Even cited our pitching getting better as one of the ways our defense gets better.
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