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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Yeah, can we sub "talent" for "depth". I am not sure what type of depth the Tigers have. But it doesn't matter.
  2. tobi0040
    He is at a -2.5 dWAR and Josh was at -1.5 in fewer games. I think it worked out to one loss per 46 games for Josh and one for every 36 games for Torii. Baseball reference has Torii at -.4 Total WAR. Might as well play Hicks or Rosario.
  3. tobi0040
    How many contenders have we played this season? We are on pace for Suzuki catching 135 games and Pinto 25, assuming he catches another two which may not happen.
  4. tobi0040
    If you believe that people act out of their own self interests, doesn't it make sense that guy playing for a million dolar paycheck would want to win now and not really care about the future? That is the fundamental issue. Gardy believes Suzuki at catcher and Santana in CF gives our team the best chance to win now and that is the only thing that matters to him. In a rebuilding mode and particulary in a season when you are going to lose 90 games, the ownership group needs to step in and tell Gardy who is going to play where. Or they can step in and give the GM more say over who plays and and what position. Or they could fire him now and tell an interim guy how it is going to be. The structure of a manager that is insecure about his job, a GM that does not have any say in where guys play and a hands off ownership group is a recipe for disaster. I am not a Gardy guy, I want to see him let go, but the blame here goes to the top.
  5. tobi0040
    Baseball reference has his DWAR at -2.5 this year, -1.5 last year.
  6. tobi0040
    I agree. I think they can either get a guy that is adequate defensively and potentially plus offensively. Swing a deal for Rasmus for example. Or you take a young guy like Hicks or Rosario who is probably plus defensively in LF and has the potential to be adequate with the bat.
  7. tobi0040
    Bottom line, Pinto not catching this year is just another thing we are going to have to accept until we get a new manager. It doesn't make sense, it never made sense, and it is hurting the future of the team. None of us can make sense of it. File this in the same folder as the third catcher, the lineup, Santana in CF, etc.
  8. tobi0040
    You really have to dig deep to make the case for him. ERA wise, his last good year was 2010, before that 2008. Before that never. Those two years had pedestrian xFIP's.
  9. tobi0040
    Yeah, defesive are in the first inning of providing value, IMO. Espeially player specific values. Here is just one example. Carlos Gomez defensive WAR by year, according to baseball reference: 2011 - 1.8 2012 - .6 2013 -4.6 2014 - .5 How could it possibly vary so much?
  10. tobi0040
    So Mauer is 3rd in the AL at 1B. Escobar is 3rd in the AL at SS. Plouffe is 4th in the AL at 3B. It does not say where Dozier ranks, but notes he is not top two. Lets say he is average. If you throw the catcher spot out, when the ball is put in play, it would seem like a very good infield defense. Wouldn't that at least partly offset the outfield? Maybe our overall team defense is not absolute worst in the league?
  11. tobi0040
    "His 3.5 million in incentives are for starting not relieving but the Twins got him for less guaranteed in case they moved him to the pen." The last thing the Twins should be worried about is Pelfrey getting cheated on that 2 year, $12M deal we gave him.
  12. tobi0040
    Yes, Yes, and Yes. We don't need to go 10-20 in April.
  13. tobi0040
    My choice is signing a guy although I don't see it happening. One of the guys we have penciled in will be hurt or not pitch well. I remember when we have had Blackburn in 2010/2011 pencilled in. Baker was a lock. Liriano was a lock. Slowey was a lock. Pavano. Duensing was penciled in a starter the year after he had a good year. At one point, Diamond was our most reliable guy based on the year he had the prior season. Nobody saw Nolasco's year coming. I also think we were 28th in ERA, 3-4 years in a row of being top 3 in the league. An upgrade of talent is fine with me. If we were to bring in Shields, who would be our best pitcher and then would bump our 6th best guy that is OK (assuming everyone is healthy)
  14. tobi0040
    I agree you have two paths. Play the kids or sign a top 4 FA. I think they are likely to take a third path, by adding a low ceiling veteran.
  15. tobi0040
    I completely agree. If we really, really wanted him he could have been had on a one year deal. I really don't see anyone giving a guy a two year deal coming off a 5.40 ERA or whatever it was.
  16. tobi0040
    Here are my two cents, I don't think many people used his injury has an excuse to pick on his contract. I and many others hated the Pelfrey signing initially. I thought it was an extremely low upside move and frankly a try out and rehab assignment for a Boras guy. Pre-injury, Pelfrey had been in the league for seven years. He had a career 4.50 ERA in the NL. His ERA was under 4.00 in two years, driven primarily by a high LOB %. In those years, 2008 and 2010 his xFIP was 4.45 and 4.31. Then, it was mind boggling IMO that we gave him a two year deal after his first one year, whether he came back early or not. Regarding a move to the pen, I am fine with that. Maybe it could work. The fear is that they give him a role because of his contract and keep a more intriguing arm in AAA.
  17. tobi0040
    While true in most cases, we saw the Rice video and AP pictures coupled with him admitting to using the switch. Regardless of what a court decides, that is enough for me.
  18. tobi0040
    I don't think he was saying this is media created. But rather a pendelum effect to a degree. PED's were ignored so now the media covers everything real time. I also think technology has allowed the media to cover these events in more detail. Anyone with a phone can now be a reporter. More things leak out beause of that and social media. So in the past you had accusations of something, now you have a video, pictures, commens from friends or family, etc.
  19. tobi0040
    I think this was a really great article that hit on many truths. They shoud not be role models because they are good at sports, but you can't stop a little kid from adoring a star play on the biggest stages and excel. Be cheered on, adored by fans, in commercals, on clothes, interviewed after the game about how great it felt to hit the big HR or the game winning shot. Just a personal note here. I had the same heroes growing up. Michael Jordan, Kirby, KG, and Mike Modano. But there was my mom. A single Mom who worked two jobs so my brother and I could eat. As parents we need to try and explain to our kids what and who is/are important. Eventually we grow and mature and so does our view of who we should look up to.
  20. tobi0040
    I like Latos but I am not sure I see a fit. He is a free agent after next season. So you have to give up prospects and sign the guy (or give up top prospects for a rental). He has a career 3.41 ERA, much better than Homer Bailey who got a $100M deal a year from free agency. Do we want to trade one of Sano, Buxton, Meyer, or Dozier and then dole out a $100M deal?
  21. tobi0040
    Nice work. The all five spots are taken assumes the following: They don't start meyer in aaa None if the five are hurt (risks have been outlined) None of the five pitch poorly (like nolasco this whole year) Even if the stars and moon align, it is not the end of the world to have a competition and depth that assures pelfrey does not see target field
  22. tobi0040
    Thank you for pulling this together. Of the bottom 10 defenses, they average to the 22.6 best ERA. Of the top 10 defenses, they average to the 10.6 best ERA. Of the bottom 10 defenses, 6 are also 20-30 in ERA. Zero are in the top 10. Of the top 10 defenses, 5 are also top 10 ERA. One is between 20-30. I see a relationship. It probably works both ways to an extent.....but these cannot be viewed as separate things. Example, better pitching = fewer well hit balls, which means "better" defense. Better fielding equals lower runs, which means "better" pitching.
  23. tobi0040
    I am on board for a better LF and better pitcher. I just wonder if a correlation exists between bad pitching and bad fielding. I suspect fewer hard hit balls when Clayton Kershaw is pitching, versus Yohan Pino/Pelfrey, etc. I also think our rotation is not talented enough right now to pencil the same guys in and hope two young players come up and pitch well. The four guys have pitched 538 innings this year and we are 28th in starting ERA. Meyer has had a scare two years in a row, this was Mays first really good year in a few. Nolasco was shut down for a long stretch. It would not hurt, from an insurance perspective and talent perspective to add one arm. especially if he is better than the other five.
  24. tobi0040
    It would be interesting to see the top 10 "worst" defenses and see how they compare with the top 10 worst in team ERA. I am guessing you see some of the same teams on there, for the reasons you and others have outlined. Harder hit balls = "bad" defense
  25. tobi0040
    I agree with everything you said except "it is nice to have Pelfrey around" .
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