tobi0040

Turns out I was off a bit. No way should Nunez or Fien be back. Using these numbers and only bringing back only Schafer, Milone, Plouffe, and Escobar from the tender portion I think you get close to $95M. Seems reasonable to me given a few things. None of these are long term contracts. We are going to start to get production from guys making $500K. And next year you lose Pelfey's $6M, replace Milone and Schafer with guys making $500K, and potentially trade Plouffe and replace him at 3B with Sano making $500K. http://www.twinkietown.com/2014/8/4/5966571/a-first-look-at-the-twins-2015-payroll-and-roster

Here is my off-season plan. What am I trying to accomplish? -Being realistic with payroll, both on dollars and years -Improve the team this year and in the near future -Keep key positions open for guys like Sano and Buxton, and allow young pitchers to emerge. -Address our real needs of OF defense and starting pitching Starting Rotation The Twins ranked second to last in starting ERA last year, behind only the Rockies who play a mile in the air. That is not good. While it is tempting for the Twins to pencil in Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, Meyer, and May for next season and stand pat, I think that would be a huge mistake. This group needs to add more talent. On top of that, someone will get hurt or be ineffective next year. You just can’t pencil in five guys and hope nothing bad happens. If the worst thing that can happen is you create a healthy competition for the 5th spot or push a guy like May to the pen for awhile, that is OK with me. Let’s face it, the Twins are NOT signing Scherzer, Lester, or Shields. There are some tempting trade opportunities out there like Cole Hamels. But I think it would be a mistake for the Twins to move prospects for a guy making $20M+ a year. Right now we have payroll flexibility and young prospects, we don’t need to blow both on one roster spot. I think any other name out there does not make a ton of sense for the Twins. We don’t need more Correia’s, Worley’s, or Pelfrey’s. If we are going to give up starts next year, give them up to a guy that is a clear upgrade and more than a one year proposition. Verdict: Sign Ervin Santana to a 3 year, $45M deal with a team option for a 4th year and a buyout. I would probably be okay with the 4th year that vests based on 180+ plus innings a year for the three years. Ervin has been a workhorse, averaging 207 innings a year over the last five years. Outside of the poor 2012 in which he had an ERA of 5.16, his ERA has been consistently good 3.92, 3.38, 3.24, and 3.95. In my view he would be our second best pitcher behind Phil Hughes. Outfield: Our OF defense last year was a complete disaster and we had a debacle in CF all year. Josh Willingham is gone and my guess is Oswaldo Arcia is handed a corner spot and he probably should. He ended last year with an OPS of .750, 20 HR’s in 100 games, (4th in OPS on the team) while proving to be a liability defensively (annualized -2.4 dWAR). Other guys in the mix are Hicks, and potentially later in the year Buxton and Rosario. I view Jordan Schafer as a 4th OF. What the Twins should NOT do is sign a guy that may hit a bit and play poor defense, I am thinking Torii Hunter, Melky Cabrera, Nick Markakis. Let’s let another team make that mistake and fix our actual need. Verdict: Sign Colby Rasmus to a 3 year deal for $36M (yahoo projected salary). This signing does a few things. Colby has played almost all of his career games in center and has a positive dWAR of 2.4 over his career. He could start in CF and move to a corner when Buxton arrives. I would expect he would provide plus defense in a corner, which would be a huge upgrade from last year. If we have a bunch of OF prospects turn out in two years, Rasmus has a career OPS of .788 against righties, which would make him a very ideal platoon guy (albeit an expenseive one that one year). I believe this move would stabilize both the offense and defense. He does have an appealing bat as well. He has a career .751 OPS and has averaged 21 HR and 22.5 2B a year over the last three years (while missing about 90 games over that stretch). He had a very good year in 2013, with 22 HR and an OPS of .840. His OBP and K numbers are not good, but he is still 28 and I think the what he provides defensively is going to make this a good signing. Infield, Pen, and DH I think the move is to stand pat. Paul Molitor has said he is going to play Danny Santana at short stop. He should be given every chance there. You have Suzuki, Dozier, Mauer, and Plouffe rounding out the infield and Escobar as the utility guy. Pinto should be given a shot to prove himself as a backup catcher getting 60 games. If Molitor concludes that Pinto is not a catcher, he should be traded for a team that has not concluded that and we should sign a backup catcher. Vargas should be handed DH and told to smack the ball around. Our pen is loaded with young guys that should be given a shot, like Burdi, Reed, and Tonkin. No need to spend there or block these guys. I am guessing these two signings bring payroll to about $85M and improve the team. What do you think?

On another thread, I put up Arcia's numbers and Torii's numbers....Very comparable on offense and defensive, according to baseball reference. Given that Arcia is young and could improve versus 39 years old, tying up $10M on Hunter makes no sense to me. Our needs are starting pitching and OF defense. If we want his leadership, make him a coach in two years.

Molitor said he will play Santana at short. He is one for one in my book.

I think WAR is a data point that can help put some things in perspective, especially for a player you almost never see play. At the end of the day he is not what we need to be spending $100+ million on and we likely won't be spending it on anyone anways.

On a scale of 1 to 10, about 0. I think signing John Lester for $135M makes more sense than a corner OF, and I wiill keep Sano, Meyer, and Buxton. I think we need to keep sight of the actual problems. Starting pitching and outfield defense. OF defense seems like it could be fixed for a heckuva lot less than that.

I don't think Nolasco for Ethier is a fit. The guy is owed $16M a year for three more years and has a vesting option for another year. he will be 33 next year. Last year he had a .9 oWAR and -.8dWAR. Not the type of OF help we need. And this is a deal that makes us even thinner in the rotation and we have to go out and pay free agent dollars just to get back to square one. I think for better or worse, Ricky is here and about the best thing that can happen is he gets back to the guy he was before last year. That would help us more than Ethier IMO.

Heyward had a 5.6 WAR season last year and was still a dissapointment at the plate....2.8 WAR offense and defense. He is about to be paid pretty well and I think it would be silly to move multiple key pitching prospects for him. Frankly, I don't really see the need for Atlanta to trade the guy at all.

I think the numbers quoted here for Cruz and Martinez are extremely low.

I am guessing this has been explored. The main issue is an agent can't negotiate a contract with another team, that is tampering. The only thing close is a trade has to be worked out and a negotiating window, a la Johan Santana to the Mets.

On another note, in the Star Trib article announcing Molitor as the new coach, I was caught off-guard by the inclusion of drug use from 30 years ago....It seemed totally unneccesary to me and lacking class. http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/279631372.html

I think the club house thing is overrated. Yelling at a guy in the dugout won't make Arcia a better outfielder or make Mike Pelfrey a good pitcher. Last year, Arcia had 20 HR in 100 games, an OPS of .752 and a dWAR of -2.2 if you annualize it (-1.4 in 100 games). He is likely going to improve a tad offensively and defensively. Hunter had 17 HR, .765 OPS, and a dWAR of -2.4. They are very similar players and Arcia is on the roster for $500K next year, no need to dump $10M plus on Hunter. It makes zero sense to me. If we had a whole at DH maybe, but we have guys there too. We need pitching and OF defense.

My ideal off-season that would be realistic.......Ervin Santana for 3-45 with an option and Colby Rasmus at 3-36, or 2-25 with an option. I think you improve the rotation. Ervin is probably our second best pitcher and it forces a competition for rotation spots. Rasmus can play CF, so the odds of a disaster there go away. Ideally he is your left fielder and if he posts a positive dWAR in center he provides plus defense in a spot that is lacking and 20 HR and 20 2B. He is 28 and does not break the bank. His OBP and K numbers are not ideal, but he is the only guy that may improve us defensively and offensively in OF.

Robertson maybe....$14M is a lot for a closer. But I guess not really in Yankee terms.

Apparently we already reached out to Torii Hunter. He would be great from a club house perspective and I would not mind his bat......but ESPN or Yahoo had him as the worst defensive OF in the league last year and DH is already crowded. BR had his defense at -2.4 dWAR last year and -1.5 the year prior. No thanks. http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Twins_have_expressed_interest_in_free_agent_Torii_Hunter110314

I can't prove it was rigged. But the facts are many in the media and on these boards believe it to be the case. I do as well. But I thought I was clear in saying that part was speculation. From a PR perspective, I have to disagree with this statement though: "If they absolutely knew they wanted to give him the job, they would have long before this." After 360+ losses in four years and season ticket holders not renewing in droves, I really think it would have been terrible optics for the Twins to just hand the job to an internal candidate without the appearance of externals having a shot. I think Dave St. Peter and Pohlad realize this.

So we lose a second round pick right? Because our 6th pick is protected. It should be realistic.

The Yahoo one predicts salaries, has Tomas at over $100M. I would not fault the Twins for balking at that, especially since it says his defense and on base skills are questionable. I think realistically, Ervin Santana is the target for a pitcher and Colby Rasmus for the OF. http://sports.yahoo.com/news/top-150-free-agents-134400203--mlb.html

We had a bunch of guys in stages 1 and 2 that were healthy and contributing. Some guys got the stage 3 contract somewhere else (Hunter and Johan), a couple of other guys got hurt and were let go....and almost nobody has come up from the minors to fill that hole.

I view the progression as three stages. Stage 1 is the rookie deal and arbitration. Guys are going to make $500K to a few million in most cases. Stage 2 is the first contract, typically team friendly as it may buy out a year or two of free agency at something close to arbitration prices plus a few million. Stage 3 is free agency. Mauer made $500K in stage 1, $8.25M a year in stage 2, and $23M a year in stage 3. All successful teams save two or three are going to need key contributors/studs in stages one and two. Even the Giants with a $147M payroll relied on Jordan Crawford in stage 1, Bumgarner, Sandoval, and Posey in stage 2. The Royals are going to resemble something closer to what the Twins will need. Ventura, Herrera, Duffy, Dyson, Finnegan, and Moustakis are in stage one. Escobar, Hosmer, Perez, Holland, Shields, and Wade Davis are in stage 2. The guys they have in stage 3 are not huge names that command top dollars, like Willingham, Guthrie, Vargas

Yeah. Detriot is not really a model. Their owner is cut from a different cloth. He won't be here in seven years and wants to win a world series and could care less about finances. What is a $20-$30M loss to a guy worth a few billion dollars? It is a different viewpoint. Very few, if any owners have that perspective.

We can say this. The guy that many thought would get the job got the job. The guy who didn't get the job thought it was rigged. Some writers, like some people on this site thought the process was a dog and pony show. These are facts. I buy into that it was rigged and I also believe Terry would not have been allowed to hire Molitor on day one even if he wanted to. That is speculation.

I would guess most teams have very few commitments more than 6 years. The Twins have no contracts out more than four.

At the time of the trade, May was their #1 rated prospect by multiple sources. I think he slotted in around #6 initiially for us, highlighting a gap between the systems.

My understanding is Rosario could still play CF, but they moved him because of Buxton. I agree the question is his bat, but I think 30-40 2B and 10-15 HR is not out of the question for him.