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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    For me the disagreement is whether or not there is value in an extension now. Jed Lowrie, a 30 year old that will likely play 2B signed a 3 year, $23 million dollar deal. In 2015-2017 dollars. HIs career OPS is about the same as Dozier's over the last two years. However, he had a monster 2010 that really skews his numbers. I think Dozier is a better offensive player. Dozier is clearly a better defensive player and gets about 15-20 more SB's a year to boot. If we extended Dozier now, we could probably get somewhere near three free agent years, in 2019-2021 dollars at about the same price as Lowrie will get in 2015-2017. I think that is value. Do we need to? No. But the price will go up from here. The difference between making $500K and $2M next year is pretty large......that is a much bigger difference than the difference between $2M and $3.5M the next year.
  2. tobi0040
    If we are convinced he is a cornerstone player (I am), I would look to giving him a deal that pays him an extra million this year, maybe another $500-750K a year during arb-years, in exchange for a buyout of 2-3 FA years in the form of options in the 8-10M range per year. I think that would provide the Twins some leverage and get an all-star caliber 2B from 28-33 for under $50M. And four years from now, successive 8M 9M and 10M years may look like an absolute steal.
  3. tobi0040
    Yeah, a 2B with 9 WAR over the last two years, dismissed because of the single stat. This is a very early 90's argument. The 114 OPS plus tells me he was 14% better than a league average hitter. Which is really, really good for a premium position. Maybe the Twins give him another 3 months or so, but I think he is a good piece on a contending team and I think it is a good sign when players are paid when they excel.
  4. tobi0040
    Thanks for the info.
  5. tobi0040
    So I can mail down baseballs or pictures and get them autographed during spring training?
  6. tobi0040
    I would probably flip Meyer and Gordon. Good list, lots of potential here!
  7. tobi0040
    He is on that list with some really good players. Just in the top 20, Justin Upton, Kemp, Puig, Gioncarlo Stanton twice (including last year when he finished second for MVP). Alvarez, Freeman, and Goldschmidt. His biggest issue is facing lefties. His OPS + splits for his career are 139 vs. 63. He is 23 and already an above replacement level bat. If he gets anywhere near competent against lefties he will be a very good hitter.
  8. tobi0040
    Agreed. I actually can see it happening. Our run differential was only -62. You add Ervin over guys like Pelfrey, Pino, etc. And if Nolasco can return to form we are on our way. Add in a shot in the arm from the farm...
  9. tobi0040
    if he put up .241 avearge, 26 HR, and a .740 OPS two years in a row do you think he would be on this list as a potential breakout player? I think he has a ton of things he can improve on....but had he played a full year I don't think he would be on the radar here. That is all.
  10. tobi0040
    At a clip of a HR every 23 AB's and 600 AB's a year,he would have 26 HR a year. Only 17 players in the league hit more next year. He needs to hit lefties better and take more walks, no doubt. But had he played a full year either of the last two I think he would be off the "breakout" radar.
  11. tobi0040
    It seems a bit odd calling for Arcia as a breakout player. He has 34 HR in less than 800 AB's the last two years, with a .743 OPS. I guess those numbers could considerably get better if he improves his hitting against lefties. I hope that is the case.
  12. tobi0040
    I like the ring of "Pending free agent Mike Pelfrey $5.5 million"
  13. tobi0040
    Yeah, I can't argue with any of this. I don't think that Torii will have much sway in whether or not Buxton, Rosario, or Hicks become good MLB players. But I do believe he is here for these guys and without Hicks, probably would not be here at all. As far as what will happen, the Twins will win more games next year than they have in any of the last four (low bar, I know). But regardless, Torii will get an outsized share of that credit. From the players, media, and coaches alike.
  14. tobi0040
    I think the reason Meyer was not up was 100% about money. He is a Boras client and we know that we have him for 6 years. If he reaches his potential, we have a zero percent chance of keeping him beyond that point, unless he pulls a Jared Weaver and defies Boras's drive to free agency. So the Twins were sitting there and did not want to waste one of those years in a throw away year and a year in which he was only going to throw 80 pitches per start. So now they have the guy from ages 25-31, hopefully five of those six years will involve some contention.
  15. tobi0040
    I think the Twins are done with Pelfrey as a starter. I hope nothing is a given for him and hope they move him to the pen and with a very good spring he can make the team there. Barring really dramatic differences in spring between M and M, I think May gets the 5th spot. Then the Twins either start Meyer in the pen like Johan, or starting at AAA. That is a hard one to predict because I think the Twins will do whichever they think is the best path for him starting with the Twins. I have no clue which way they lean.
  16. tobi0040
    I agree with you. That should have been the plan. But the Twins took the let spend $10.5M on Torii to motivate him path. No way HIcks starts in AAA.
  17. tobi0040
    The Twins could basically have the following player locked up, a prety good, cheap core. Hughes at 9-13M a year for the next five years Ervin at $13M a year for the next four Dozier for the next six years at $40M or so Perkins for the next 3-4 years at $6M a year Then 4-6 cost controlled years for: Meyer, Buxton, Sano, Gibson, Vargas, Berrios, Burdi, Reed, Rosario, May, etc. If 70% of the prospects come through, it would seem like we would have a talented team with payroll flexibility (even with Mauer). Thiink about an all star caliber pitcher (Hughes) through his prime for $58M. An all star caliber 2B in his prime for $40M. And potentially a really good pitcher through ages 25-31 for about $30-40M (Meyer).
  18. tobi0040
    As Brock pointed out, the OPS did not swing much from the first half to the second and the AB's were not close to 50/50. I think he has to regress a ton to be an average 2B.
  19. tobi0040
    That is the plan I would go with. If he is hitting .220 with no power by June, call a duck a duck and make him a good bench option.
  20. tobi0040
    I completely agree. Dozier was 3rd in OPS among 2B. #1 is a guy named Cano, under contract for $240M. #2 was a young player that won a batting title, hit 47 doubles, and stole 56 bases. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/2b/league/al/sort/OPS/order/true
  21. tobi0040
    By that logic, no player in the league would have a good contract. Cut Mike Trout's numbers in half. 18 HR and 8 SB. A .287 average. His contract looks terrible. Taken to the other extreme, double Dozier's first half and he has 36 HR and 32 SB. At the end of the day, Dozier has averaged about an OPS of .740 the last two years, even with the low average. That is a really, really good 2B. The Twins could give him a 6 year deal and by my count only buy out two free agent years. So rookie, Arb x 3, and FA x 2 would likely not be a huge outlay. Something in the $40-45M range. Another very reasonable deal for a good core player on a good team, like Hughes.
  22. tobi0040
    If we did not have Vargas...AND we were dead set on playing Hunter in the field. Maybe. Plus, why are we talking about Quentin when Punto is available
  23. tobi0040
    I am not too caught up in the batting average. The 9 WAR over the last two years is more telling. I think the slugging, HR, SB, and defense at 2B provides a ton of value.
  24. tobi0040
    I wonder if this long term view also applies to Brian Dozier.
  25. tobi0040
    His career ERA before last year was 4.10 if you exclude the new Yankee stadium. So that would seem about the floor for me. Tons of upside here. Not much risk, outside the risk of a pitcher being hurt which comes alone with every deal.
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