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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Bob, Arrietta is why I said "other than guys that popped up and had a good year". He has been in the league now for awhile and at 28 had a great year. I can't ignore the 4.48 career era. And john Manuel said schwarber might be the best bat in the draft, so getting to high a with that label as a college player seems par for me. If he is a catcher long term he is a huge prospect, but very few think he will. He only caught 20 of 56 games last year. Just seems we hear non stop concerns about buxtons health, sano's position, how tall berrios is, Meyers mechanics, kohls strikeouts. Yet nobody seems to say boo about the cubs players. Maybe I am off base, or maybe everyone really wants the cubs resurgence story that they don't scrutinize them in the same manner.
  2. tobi0040
    It was an exagerration. No doubt. But apart from a good year here or there, who in that rotation projects as a top three or four arm on a contending team outside of Lester? I also don't think they will get even money for position players for starter trades. I think they are the Cubs and everyone is getting ahead of themselves.....thats all. Just like they are going to win 82 games next year.
  3. tobi0040
    In a comparison among minor league players, I would argue that Burdi has fewer questions about achieving his ceiling than most, by a long shot. He has been a closer in the NCAA tourney and excelled. He throws 100 with a 90 mph slider. I think he has a higher chance of becoming a top closer than Buxton does at becoming a top CF. Now a top CF is way, way more important....but supposedly Kiley weighted these based on guys with more question marks. I am not arguing Burdi should be higher than Buxton using this methodology, but I don't see the gap as between 2 and not in the top 200.
  4. tobi0040
    I think Terry has made the comment before that teams are not very willing to give up good young pitchers, think AAA or first year guys. Prior to the Span/Meyer trade he called out the Wheeler trade as saying you need to find A ball talent like the Mets did in the Beltran trade. Then we moved Span for Meyer. I buy it and don't think, all else equal that you will see a Bryant for say Tajuan Walker or Gerritt Cole. That is a trade that does not happen often because most teams value the pitcher more.
  5. tobi0040
    I have no issues with people thinking they should be number one. Just surprised that 8-10 people have them #1 and nobody to my knowledged has mentioned that their top end guys are all position players. As you model that out moving forward....I may lean towards the Twins have a sustainable team in the future as we have some guys that could be front of the rotation guys under control for six years. They have to sign five Jon Lesters.
  6. tobi0040
    I guess that doesn't make much sense to me then. If they are both closers, why is Meyer 71 and Burdi not in the top 200? If anything Burdi will be a better closer as he has already excelled in that role and they have similar stuff there....Meyer probably throws the same 100 with a 90 mph slider. The other thing that surprises me is how unanomous the Cubs are #1. Nobody is pointing out that they are highly weighted towards position players. Are they going to sign a Jon Lester every off-season? CJ Edwards is their top pitcher, #50 or so overall on most boards and their 5th best prospect. He only pitched 48 innings last year due to a shoulder issue. And Shwarber is a guy that was supposed to have an MLB ready bat and they sent him to low, then high A after college. He put up a .950 to 1.000 OPS but shouldn't he? And looking at the guy he doesn't project as a good corner OF and he can't DH there.
  7. tobi0040
    Burdi is probably the guy that surprises me the most. I don't see many question marks about him being a top closer in the game.....and I would think a top closer would be a top 200 prospect. If MLB had a draft of existing players, I would suspect a guy like Kimbrel being taken in the first 200 picks.
  8. tobi0040
    Odds are one of these six guys will need tommy john or will have some other major surgery. Happens almost every year.
  9. tobi0040
    I think you have many different types of lists. Who will be up this year could be one. Who has the most upside could be another. But the short term list would have Logan Darnell ranked higher than Kohl Stewart.
  10. tobi0040
    I think a month in the pen would actually be fine because the Twins probably have him on a 150-160 inning limit this year. In the rare chance we are making a run, that first month in the pen would help ensure he is part of it. I would find this solution vastly superior to him wasting bullets starting in AAA.
  11. tobi0040
    My ideal scenario is May makes the rotation and Meyer is eased into the rotation in long relief (2-3 innings at a time in meaningless games, on a somewhat regular schedule). Then Meyer is the next up when someone goes down.
  12. tobi0040
    I also like the callout about the bust rate of high school pitchers taken in the top 10. I looked at the drafts from 2001 to 2010, a total of 16 high school pitchers were taken. I get eight guys that have made the majors and several studs. Greinke, Kershaw, Bailey, Wheeler, Bumgarter, and Parker. The other two were Danks and Turner. Taillon is also in this category but he had TJ last year as a top 20 prospect (drafted in 2011). So it is nice to see the Twins not avoiding this group as the payoff can be huge. If you are curiuous, the others were Gruler, Loewen, Everts, Moore, Rogers, Hobgood, and Whitsen.
  13. tobi0040
    I agree, I am not the least bit concerned about the strikeouts. If that k rate is the same the next year or two, especially as he lets that slider loose I will be. The GO and BB numbers you cited are encouraging. As well as the .4 HR/9 number and the 7.88 H/9 number.
  14. tobi0040
    Right, but I would expect Meyer to be better then both of them.
  15. tobi0040
    My personal opinion is drugging and gambling are two different things entirely (assuming they were not betting against their team and throwing the games). In the case of Pete Rose, the evidence suggests he was only betting on his team to win. If a guy wants to put a few G's on his team winning, I don't have a huge issue with it. The fact that the MLB rules punishes a guy permanantly for betting on his team to win but you have guys like Nelson Cruz still in the league and signing huge deals when it is fact they cheated is really bizarre to me. I get why MLB may want to discourage betting as you can get guys behind and owing bookies, or taking the signals of an insider to bet themselves....but why is this hurting the integrity of the game more than a juiced player? MLB Rule: Major League Baseball Rule 21(d) is clear. Here is the relevant portion: Any player, umpire, or club or league official or employee, who shall bet any sum whatsoever upon any baseball game in connection with which the bettor has a duty to perform shall be declared permanently ineligible. http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2014/08/why-pete-rose-still-cant-be-absolved/378866/
  16. tobi0040
    Spot on. Bonds for example was a jerk to the media (and everyone else). When something went wrong they really, really wanted to see him fall.
  17. tobi0040
    What a fall. What a fall. This is par for the course.
  18. tobi0040
    Under on the Angels and Red Sox. Over the Orioles. On that note, in addition to the over/under predictions, we should pick the five that we are most confident about and see that record as well, i.e. who we would find the best bets. That would be fun.
  19. tobi0040
    In other words....Vegas hates the ALCS.
  20. tobi0040
    If?
  21. tobi0040
    Those odds seem somewhat appealing. I think would be in a better position to make a run next year than we have been and several of the teams in the AL specifically seem to be regressing.
  22. tobi0040
    Taking that in a linear fashion, 100-1 for the WS would be roughly 12.5 to 1 for making the playoffs (assuming the play in does not count)
  23. tobi0040
    I have heard being tall = hard to repeat = shoulder issues. I would consider that a mechanics issue of sorts
  24. tobi0040
    I am guessing the odds of the Twins winning the world series aren't even that long....
  25. tobi0040
    I would say that if the Twins think mechanics are causing him to re-injure his shoulder then they should be tweaking those mechanics sooner rather than later. Based on the fact that we haven't heard that as their analysis or any word on the Twins tweaking his mechanics, I am guessing they have not reached that conclusion.
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