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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    It should be noted, that as horrible as Sano's average is.....he has 4 HR and 12 BB's in 17 games. A pace of 38 HR, 114 BB over 162 games. And his OPS of .684 isn't too bad for missing the entire previous season and shaking off the rust. Buxton, even though he has not been on base a ton is on pace for 63 SB. Goes to show how talented these guys are.
  2. tobi0040
    Interesting. 11 of 21 from last year were not his either. Thank you for sharing.
  3. tobi0040
    So we play Kurt every day and leave Pinto in AAA because of his defense. In just 17 games, 14 guys have stolen on Kurt and he has not thrown anyone out. He has only been credited with 1 passed ball, but the pitchers have 9 wild pitches. A few I have seen he should have had. Is anyone surprised the Twins maybe i denail about the defense of a veteran? And not balancing what we are giving up in terms of offense by a younger player? Where have we seen his before? Career MLB Numbers: Pinto .784 OPS Suzuki .690 OPS
  4. tobi0040
    Very cool. The Mariners are better.
  5. tobi0040
    where to? anywhere fun?
  6. tobi0040
    I wonder if the mound is in the pitchers zone, for his UZR rating.
  7. tobi0040
    Hicks is outplaying him.
  8. tobi0040
    Just looking through the box score. Why was Fien in for 5 hits? You don't let a reliever get 5 hits before they get 3 outs.
  9. tobi0040
    I only support "getting rid" of Plouffe in a trade where we are getting value back. And we should only go down that road if we are confident Sano sticks at 3B. If waiting a year ends up costing us his age 33 season and $13M....better than making this decision too early and botching it. We went a really, really long time between Koskie and Plouffe at 3B. I don't want to do that again. But you have wonder whether a .722 career OPS, .750 high end is a 3 WAR player in LF. Especially when his defense could be bad. And if we kept him, we might just be pushing a potential 4-5 WAR 3B to the OF or DH, where he will lose a few wins.
  10. tobi0040
    He is on pace for a 3 year deal this time.
  11. tobi0040
    There is one team, but he is already on that team.
  12. tobi0040
    Fixed. *If Pelfrey lets it ride three more starts and Terry gives him a 2 or 3 year extension I am going to freak out.
  13. tobi0040
    BY FIP. May, Pelfrey, Gibson, then Milone. By ERA. Pelfrey, Milone. GIbson, and May. By future. Gibson, May, Milone, and Peflrey. Milone 22.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 6.32 FIP. 1.45 WHIP. 6.4 K per 9. Pelfrey 24 IP. 2.25 ERA. 4.47 FIP. 1.125 WHIP. 5.6 K per 9 May 14.2 IP, 4.91 ERA. 2.66 FIP. 1.159 WHIP. 8 K per 9 Gibson 22 IP. 4.84 ERA. 5.51 FIP. 1.70 WHIP. 2.4 K per 9 I would say Gibson and May are probably part of the future. Pelfrey has changed his approach, pitch mix, and velocity and has looked a lot better. So I let it ride a little longer. Milone doesn't really have any compelling reason.* *If Pelfrey lets it ride three more starts and Terry gives him a 2 or 3 year extension I am going to freak out.
  14. tobi0040
    Pelfrey has changed his pitch mix and velocity quite a bit. We should let this experiment ride and put Milone in the pen. From fangraphs: Fastball Slider Curve Split 2013 72% 10% 8% 9% 2014 80% 8% 3% 8% 2015 63% 9% 6% 23% Additionally, his average FB is 93.4, up from 90.8 last year. The split is 81.7, down from 84.1. Guessing he is throwing a different pitch altogether. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5203&position=P
  15. tobi0040
    Let's go the other way. Hughes - No. Gibson - Controlled young-ish with a 4.18 career FIP. No. May - Controlled. 25. Good stuff. Flashing good control. 2.66 FIP this year. No. Pelfrey or Milone - I could care less which one. My money is on May though. I am going to lose it.
  16. tobi0040
    Given the uncertainty about his position and the fact that I don't ever see him as a $15M a year player....That is my ultimate conclusion too.
  17. tobi0040
    I see a lot of Plouffe-specific commentary in his reasoning.
  18. tobi0040
    SD, I agree. I think you have a max of 2-3 starts to watch in CR for Gonsalves.
  19. tobi0040
    Yes. But to your earlier point, we have $25M extra in 2016 and 2017. So paying an additional few million isn't that big of a deal. I am okay with that right now as we don't have a gun to our head forcing anything. If he takes a 3 year deal with two individual team option years I would do it. Because I think it then upps his trade value quite a bit (team gets to save money if he is good and move on if he is not). But that probably doesn't make sense for Plouffe to sign.
  20. tobi0040
    Next off-season he is 30 and has two years of control left. I don't see him requiring a five year deal at that point. I don't see him saying no to 4/35. That is basically 2/20 over what he would make in arbitration. At that point we will have a better handle on the Sano situation. That is only $15M more with one additional season over this hypothetical 3/24 deal.
  21. tobi0040
    I personally believe the "how expensive he will get if we don't sign him" crowd is overblowing the difference between how expensive he will get and what we are saving to give him 3-24 now ($8M a year). If you throw out A-Rod, here a few of the most expensive 3B out there. Han-Ram .874 OPS @ 22M Beltre .814 OPS @ $16M 4 gold gloves Wright .870 OPS @ $15M 2 gold gloves Zimmerman .825 OPS @ $14M 1 gold glove Plouffe's career OPS is .722. If he was a free agent, I think he fetches $12M a year and he is not a free agent right now. So we are saving $12M over three years, tops. If we have oodles and oodles of money the next few years, why open the door for the negatives of this?
  22. tobi0040
    What are we saving by extending him now? Money over the next 2-3 years, which is not a scarce commodity. So to me the risk is higher than the cost. I don't want to move Sano around, a 22 year old that we will hopefully have until he is 37 because we wanted to save a few million dollars on a 29 year old Plouffe, who was probably not going to be here very long. This is not a franchise that is flexible to moving guys all around. They would not even talk about Mauer moving and moved him about two years after they should have. Then they moved him to the wrong position. And will probably never move him again.
  23. tobi0040
    I would sign him at 3-25 if we conclude Sano is not a 3B. Otherwise, I don't neccesarily agree that this deal carries no risk for us. Plouffe could regress. Or he could fail to transition to another postion, which would likely cause us moving one of the best prospects we have ever had to play out of position and in a position that will lower his WAR. If he can't play LF or RF, where does he go? If either of those things happen we will kick ourselves for having another contract that is difficult to move, or more likely another player that we play just because he has a contract If the risk of not-signing Plouffe is that he gets more expensive....but we have all this money? So is him getting a little more expensive a huge problem? To me, that is not as big of an issue as having another contract to deal with.
  24. tobi0040
    Having the money and extending Plouffe are two separate things though. Just because we have the money does not mean that it is the best decision for the Twins.
  25. tobi0040
    But the flip side is. Plouffe had a good year last year. And about a good 40-50 day streak in 2012. You hand him a 3-4 year deal and he doesn't put up another year like last year and he may not be as easy to move or valuable as we think. If you look around we have a few poor contracts already, I think you wait.
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