nytwinsfan

Let's be honest, Arcia isn't an outfielder. He has the potential to be a very good hitter with lots of lefty power, but his real position is DH. Kepler's hitting has less of a track record, but his upside value as a corner outfielder is higher than Arcia's, given his ability to provide at least above average defense (not to mention Kepler's ability to steal a few bases). Arcia's atrocious defense depletes his offensive upside. Ideally, we would move Arcia to DH and Vargas to 1B. If Mauer manages to rebound, then we'd have a logjam of Arcia and Vargas at DH, but I think Arcia should be taken out of the medium and long-term equation in the OF. There are too many other great options that provide superior defense, including Kepler, Rosario, Walker, Hicks and Harrison. Not all of them will likely succeed at AAA and the majors, but it is pretty likely that at least 2 out of 5 will.

Wow, Kepler must be absolutely locked in. This is just insane. I can't imagine he'd' stay in Chattanooga after the all star break.

Fantastic. If he can back up Buxton at CF or Mauer/whoever at 1B, and play corner outfield 75% of the time, all the better. Versatility is awesome to have. Makes me wonder if Rosario could still play some backup 2B if Dozier needs a rare day off (or has a short-term injury). I'm sure he could in a pinch.

Definitely not arguing with you about Kepler's talent. On that we do 100% agree. Just arguing about where those talents would be best positioned.

First, it is his "natural position" according to who? Second, they didn't draft him, they signed him as an international free agent . . . at 16 -- an age when it is hard to know what it would even mean for a player to have a "natural position." Are you saying because a couple of German middle and high school baseball coaches put him at 1B for reasons that probably have nothing to do with his potential long-term development, he should play that position 6 years later when he reaches the majors? Yes, I agree he is more than athletic enough to play 1B, as I noted above, and I am fine with them giving him time there, and it is great that he has defensive versatility, but as I and others have noted above, what matters is where they plan to have him play most of the timewhen he gets to the majors, which I think should be corner outfield. Sure, things could change. Mauer could retire or be benched, Vargas could continue to flounder at the plate, Plouffe might be traded, and Walker could continue to hit and cut his strikout rate. Anything is possible. Under those circumstances, sure, Kepler might make sense at 1B. But under the most likely circumstances, as I discussed above, I've made an argument for why I think Kepler fits in the corner outfield. I've made my case above, and in other threads, as has SD Buhr. How about making an argument to the contrary, rather than just asserting in conclusory fashion that his "best" or "natural" position is 1B. Based on what? Even if that were true, it might be an even "better" or "more natural" position for someone else, like Mauer, Vargas or Sano. I don't think Kepler would be offended at all to be told that his talents would be wasted at a less demanding defensive position. I'm not saying 1B defense isn't important or demanding (that's another straw man), I'm saying it isn't as important or demanding as corner outfield.

Yeah, well let's wait and see. Buxton certainly had the "injury bug" all last year. But he's recovered as well this year.

I agree that Kepler would be valuable as a 1B, and that it is great that he has the versatility to play there if needed. But I do think he probably has more value playing mostly corner outfield. I don't think we disagree on this, I just think drivlikejehu's statement was a little too strong in saying that Kepler couldn't ever have value as a 1B. I guess I don't see Hicks or Harrison being a better option in the corner. Harrison doesn't have the same defensive upside as Kepler, and Hicks, while a potential platooner against lefties, doesn't have the offensive upside of Kepler. Walker, if he cuts down on his strikouts and continues to hit the way he is, could potentially make more sense than Kepler, but even then, it might make more sense to move Walker to DH, Vargas or Sano/Plouffe to 1B (assuming Mauer isn't there - but if Mauer is still there this whole debate is sort of moot anyway), and Kepler to the corner. My understanding is that Walker's outfield defense is decent for a man of his size, but that Kepler is faster. Let me know if someone disagrees based on in person experience of watching them play defense. Plouffe and Arcia would be disasters in the outfield on defense. I don't know enough about Sano, and I hear he is athletic and fast for his size, but I have a hard time seeing him as an outfielder. So count me as skeptical of that.

Thanks for acknowledging the point. I have no doubt Kepler would be an excellent defender at 1B. I just think the Twins would get comparatively more value out of that defense in a corner outfield spot. From accounts I've read he can play CF more than adequately, and someone like that in a corner spot would make a plus outfielder, just like Rosario has been a plus corner outfielder. I think Kepler probably has more power potential than Rosario too, once he fills out his giant frame a little more.

Don't understand why we would want to waste Kepler's speed and athleticism at 1B, when he could be a plus corner outfield defender. Yes, those things are valuable at 1B too, but not as much as they are in the outfield. We've all seen how much of a difference strong outfield defense makes these last few weeks, especially with fly ball pitchers like Hughes, May, and Nolasco (and soon Berrios) in the staff. The Twins also have plenty of 1B candidates, from Mauer (hoping he returns to form) to Vargas, to whichever of Sano or Plouffe doesn't stay at 3B. Obviously it would be great if Kepler has the defensive versatility to play 1B at times if necessary, but it seems ridiculous to focus him there. I think the main reasons he's been playing a lot of 1B this year are that Chattanooga until recently had 3 other outfielders, and to give him some time without the risk of reinjuring his wrist/forearm again in the outfield. But he's a future left fielder, and the Twins would be shortsighted to switch him to 1B full time (not that I think they are doing that - I think they know his future is primarily as a strong defensive, average or maybe even above average hitting left fielder).

From the Department of Ridiculous Video Game Stats Occurring In Real Life, Max Kepler is batting .485/.605/.758 (1.363) in his last 10 games and .647/.727/.941 (1.668) in his last 5 games. Overall at Chattanooga he is batting .331/.393/.530 (.923) with 9 SB and 3 CS (75% success rate) and a 23 to 19 K to BB ratio. Also, crazily enough, he has not hit into a single double play in 201 PA. Just saying.

Agreed, he should go back to his old approach. It can't be worse than this (famous last words).

Walker is hitting extremely well, no doubt. But his K rate is up above 35% (noticeably higher than in past years) and unlike Sano (who has a better K rate too), his walk rates are not elite or even good. He is going to need to reduce that K rate if he is going to have any chance of success in the majors. That being said, the power is off the charts, and if he can cut down on the strikeouts even a bit he could be a major leaguer one day.

Kepler was 4 for 5 today, as was Walker. They are both just raking. Imagine an Outfield of Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, and Walker (hitting anywhere close to the way he is now). I still think the jump to the majors is going to be hard for Walker, but boy is there upside.

Nolasco's contract is only guaranteed through 2017. 2018 is an option.

Kepler continues to hit. And he's been racking up the walks lately. Only 3 HRs, but lots of 2Bs and 3Bs, great K and BB rates, and by all accounts great defense, especially for a corner outfielder. Yes, 190 PAs isn't enough to conclude he is a top 100 prospect, but if you look at his 82 PAs in the Arizona Fall League, those were really good too. So he's getting close to half a season worth of PAs of crushing it, especially for a 22 year old who grew up in Germany not playing top-level organizational ball.

I already said this in the Max Kepler adopt-a-prospect thread this morning, but I really don't understand why they have Kepler playing 1B. I think that is a mistake. He is hitting as well or better than Harrison, and by all accounts, his outfield defense is better than Harrison (and probably Walker) and his overall value as an outfielder is probably higher than Harrison and Walker (both of whom are legit prospects in their own right and neither of whom I am disparaging). If (big if) Mauer isn't the 1B for the next three years, just hypothetically, someone like Vargas, Plouffe, or Sano probably will be. So I just don't understand the reason for keeping Kepler at 1B. The only things I can think of are (1) that Kepler's outfield defense is so solid that he doesn't need the reps there as much as Harrison, and could diversify his defensive flexibility by learning how to play infield defense, or more likely (2) given his history of recent injuries they want to reduce the chances of another arm injury on a diving catch, at least until he gets the bat going for a significant period of time. But if it is not (2), which I could buy, then I think the Twins organization is making a mistake by not keeping Kepler as primarily an outfielder.

No, I said Twins commentators who are skeptical of Polanco's ability to play defense at SS (such as Aaron Gleeman, Derek Wetmore -- not some random guy) should reach out to them.

Has anyone (coach, etc.) given any explanation for why the strikeouts are so low? Is it lackluster velocity, movement, pitch selection? I agree it is definitely way too early to give up on him. For sure.

Well, for one, the coaches at Chattanooga, but also scouts, and commentators, national or local, that follow the Lookouts. A number of people on this website have written about Polanco's defense. I can't find the thread where it happened, but I had a long discussion with someone on twins daily who had just seen Polanco play in person and thought his defense had improved immensely, and that many of his errors were mostly about poor decisions (e.g., rushing a throw when there was little chance to get the runner out, etc.). Obviously that is also a small sample size and not a professional scout, so it shouldn't be taken as gospel either. I just find it frustrating that some of the same people who are always talking about how we shouldn't draw conclusions from small sample sizes, are the very same ones concluding that Polanco has no chance to stick at SS based on a very very very small sample size.

So is Polanco going to be able to stick at SS or what? Maybe it is just me, but this seems like the elephant in the room. All these major league commentators who saw Polanco have one bad outing in the field (his first start ever in the majors) seem convinced he won't, but I honestly think their opinion is worthless. They haven't seen him play day in and day out, when he isn't incredibly nervous for his first start ever. I'm not saying he necessarily will stick at SS,and the number of errors he has racked up suggests he has work to do, but the rush to write him off seems way to quick to me. I just wish some of these commentators who focus almost exclusively on the major leagues would talk to some people who have followed Polanco in the minors this year, in order to get a better assessment based on a larger sample size. Moreover, even if Polanco's defense at SS ends up being subpar, are we convinced the loss of value there isn't more than made up by his offensive value? If Escobar regains last year's form, then sure, that makes more sense (I don't have high expectations for Santana). But otherwise, I'm not sure we have a better option. Polanco probably is ideally a plus second baseman, but with Dozier the Twins best hitter for the near (and possibly medium) term, and Polanco's skills generally undervalued by the market in terms of trade value, it isn't clear to me that keeping him at SS in the hopes that his defense will improve to serviceable isn't the best option. I probably could have started a new thread about this topic, but I honestly think this might be the best place for it. If the moderators or site owners disagree, let me know and I can delete and repost as a separate thread.

His current BABIP is .342, while the highest it has ever been in a previous season is .310. He is likely going to regress some. That being said, he still is an intriguing prospect, with tremendous upside.

Sorry, missed it.

More on Jovani Moran, from Baseball America: And here is video of him: I'm not scout, but "lanky, projectible frame" is kind of an understatement. Kid looks skinny as can be, especially his upper body. He looks like he could easily add a couple of MPH on his pitches as he fills out.

I knew it. He looked really young. Exactly, let's hope so.

What is Jovani Moran's age and birthday? He looks really young in the photos I could find, which is good, since that might mean more projection on his 6 foot 1, 165 pound frame.