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nytwinsfan

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Everything posted by nytwinsfan

  1. nytwinsfan
    You have zero data to back this up. It is just pure conventional wisdom and rhetoric. For instance, last year, Alex Gordon provided 2.6 WAR from defense alone, according to Baseball Reference. The Mariners were 2 games behind KC in the Wild Card. So it is actually quite possible, if not more likely than not, that if you had replaced Alex Gordon with a replacement level defensive outfielder that had the same hitting profile as Gordon (which was also quite good), the Royals would not have made the playoffs and therefore the WS. Obviously CF defense matters more than either corner outfielder's defense (although together both corners' defense matters more). See here: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/12/12/5200348/visualizing-outfield-defense-and-positional-adjustments But that is a far cry from meaning that corner outfield defense, especially when you combine the value of both corner outfielders, doesn't matter. In the end, everything is a trade off. If you have a really good hitter who provides no or negative defensive value, and a decent hitter that also provides decent defensive value (e.g., Rosario) then you have to compare the two and see which provides more value on the margin. But just because CF tend to provide more defensive value and corner outfielders tend to provide more offensive value, there is no reason a team should prefer to get its defensive value from CF and its offensive value from corner OF. Obviously all that matters is maximizing overall value over some time horizon (season, decade, whatever). EDIT: I see Dantes929 made a similar post that while I was writing mine. I completely agree with him. I think we are on the same page.
  2. nytwinsfan
    To be fair, although hitless, Kepler also had 4 walks in the last two games, so not exactly worthless games at the plate.
  3. nytwinsfan
    You spelled "Hunter" wrong.
  4. nytwinsfan
    Not sure the full significance of this, but seems relevant:
  5. nytwinsfan
    This is probably a dumb question, but why do some of the zones have 4-4 or 2-4 instead of a slugging %? Also, any thoughts from a mechanical or strike-zone judgment perspective on how he can have such a high BABIP? I know he won't be able to maintain this, but it does seem like every time he hits the ball it is a line drive or fly ball. He rarely if ever hits grounders or pop ups. Is that part even remotely sustainable?
  6. nytwinsfan
    So who would be the third outfielder? Because Hunter has been much worse than Buxton lately. Robinson? I can see an argument, but his upside is limited. If Buxton does find his stride, he can provide much more, and if he doesn't, he is pretty close to Robinson. I'd say upside dictates going with Buxton. Unless Kepler is an option (which right now he's not), I'd stick with a Rosario, Buxton, Hicks outfield.
  7. nytwinsfan
    The difference between Sano and Buxton at the major league level versus at the minors (where they put up comparable numbers - obviously Buxton hitting many more 2B and 3B than HR) is really confounding. Some of it is probably small sample size, and some if it may be Buxton being affected more by nerves (which Sano seems completely immune from). Buxton just seems scared up there and like he has no plan. I'm not sure where his lack of confidence comes from . . . other than maybe the thousands of additional people watching each game and the pennant race. The question then is whether you leave him at the majors to work through the nerves. I don't think he's hurting the team much, especially with Hicks and (apparently) Kepler not being options right this second, so I think you let him play through it. If he finds his stride, the upside could still be huge. And frankly, it will probably take a huge upside from a guy like Buxton to give the Twins a chance of going anywhere in the playoffs. So I say roll with him and try not to get down on him too much (he seems to be doing that plenty to himself).
  8. nytwinsfan
    Yup, Suzuki had a particularly horrible night framing the ball. I noticed at least three pitches where his glove jerked outside the zone at the last second. He really did Duffy no favors.
  9. nytwinsfan
    Every ****ing borderline strike call is going against the Twins. Jesus H. this ump sucks.
  10. nytwinsfan
    Why the F is Molitor putting in a leftie to face 3 straight right handed batters, including Abreau? Seriously, wtf? Does Cotts have reverse splits or something?
  11. nytwinsfan
    Makes a lot of sense to me.
  12. nytwinsfan
    Rochester is going against the International League's weakest offensive team, the Pawtucket Red Sox. Not that Berrios needs any helpf, but he should be able to dominate them.
  13. nytwinsfan
    Yeah, Berrios, Tonkin, Achter, Vargas, and Kepler should all be coming up. Polanco too. Dozier looks exhausted, and who can blame him. He could use a game a week off down the stretch. Even Danny Santana, if only as a pinch runner.
  14. nytwinsfan
    Agreed that I would not read too much into the August numbers, especially because there were a lot of RHP he faced. The real difference is not by months, but by handedness of the pitcher. Despite all the talk that he has figured out how to be decent against RHP, his OPS on the year is still .634 against them. At most it has gone from disastrous to poor. That might cut it as a split against RHP for a CF with good defense on a different team (one without Byron Buxton), but it won't cut it for this current team. Aaron Hicks plays good defense and destroys LHP. And for that, he will probably always have a spot on a major league team. But it is questionable whether he has a future with the Twins unless it is as at least a partial platoon player. Sure, there is some chance he will figure out RHP enough to have a .670 to .700 OPS, in which case he might be able to be a plus defense, below average hitting corner outfielder. But I think that is unlikely. He's been in the majors three years now, and still hasn't figured out RHP.
  15. nytwinsfan
    Not worried about Kepler. Hasn't been striking out at all. Just bad luck and his Babip coming a little back to earth. I do agree that the bullpen is probably the best route for Berrios. Keeps his innings down while still allowing him to contribute.
  16. nytwinsfan
    So because Kennys Vargas would be twice as bad at SS as Joe Mauer, does that mean we should move Mauer to SS?
  17. nytwinsfan
    Arcia is not an outfielder. Sorry, but he will never be anything other than an emergency OF for the Twins again, and thank goodness for that. (he might be a DH though).
  18. nytwinsfan
    The "problem" is that the Twins (1) don't like to platoon, (2) have at least three other good to great young outfielders, and (3) have Mauer and Sano at 1B and DH (with Vargas probably taking over DH or 1B if Plouffe is traded and Sano takes over 3b). So unless the Twins decide to Platoon, one of Rosario, Hicks, Buxton is traded, or Plouffe is traded and the Twins make Kepler a 1B, I don't see a spot for Kepler. Sure, there could be injuries next year, but you can't count on that and you have to hope it doesn't happen. It would be good to see him this September so that if trades happen this offseason the Twins have some (albeit still limited) sense of his ability.
  19. nytwinsfan
    Ohhh, I know!
  20. nytwinsfan
    Plus 4 inches, but otherwise, yeah.
  21. nytwinsfan
    Great, long overdue article. Kepler really isn't being talked about as much as he should. If you combine the fact that he just turned 22 in April, with the fact (mentioned by the article) that he didn't play highly competitive ball until 16, and that he has been hampered by injuries, his dominant performance this year is really incredible and hasn't gotten enough attention, especially from national prospect watchers, but even from local Twins ones. Unfortunately, those quotes from Radcliff make it sounds like Kepler won't be a Sept. 1 call up.
  22. nytwinsfan
    Ok, probably right, especially in a very small sample size, but still the opponent BABIP is .400 and he's thrown 20 K in 15.1 innings. And this after a full college season. He's doing great.
  23. nytwinsfan
    His FIP is 1.74. That's definitely "very solid."
  24. nytwinsfan
    If a reliever were used for more innings, you might be right, but relievers rarely have as much value (WAR) as starters, even though they are often used in higher leverage situations. You just pitch many fewer innings when you have to pitch every or every other day.
  25. nytwinsfan
    Why can't the Twins put Santana or Hughes in the pen? Is there a rule that if you pay someone more than $10 million a year they can't be a set-up man or middle-inning reliever? Seriously, the money Ryan invested in them is a sunk cost. Play them where they will help the Twins best, and if that means May, Berrios, Duffy, Gibson, and Hughes starting with Santana in the pen, then so be it.
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