TwinsTerritory

If the Twins can get a top 150 prospect for Suzuki, I agree. I don't think they'll get someone ranked that high and if that's the case, I'd take a Comp Round A pick in a heartbeat.

I'm with Seth on Kubel and Guerrier. They probably should have walked away from Kubel sooner, but I don't see where those 2 did much damage. On the other hand, the Bartlett experiment was truly poor decision making. I know Alex Presley isn't part of the long term solution, but he certainly would have given us some options other than pushing Hicks again. I think Terry Ryan has done a good job since coming back and I'm sure Rob Antony is good at his job as well, but it would be interesting if there was a way to bring in a new face from another organization to serve in some role. I think the Twins are making changes in how they use data and scout players, but it seems it's been a slow learning curve and I wonder if someone from outside the organization might provide new insight.

Seems to me that Gibson will start on Saturday. Meyer is scheduled to start tonight. If he doesn't make the start, there will be a lot of excitement on TD!

I think I would trade Suzuki to the Cardinals for their pick, but I'd hope to get more than just the pick from the Orioles. I would definitely trade Willingham for either the Mariners or Reds pick. As mentioned trading these picks is a relatively new thing and it doesn't seem like teams are apt to trade picks often.

This is my point exactly. Instead of signing for 6 years/$68 million, he would have received $25 million per year if teams knew that he was going to hit 50 home runs. Here is a pretty decent write up from last September with views from different scouts. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/onenationmlb09172013/sizing-cuban-slugger-jose-dariel-abreu For those that want the short version, here are a couple quotes from scouts (pretty sure these weren't all Twins scouts;)) "Hitting-wise, he reminds me a lot of Dayan Viciedo," said a scout. "He's just not as athletic. This guy has more power than Kendrys Morales. But Morales is a better hitter for me." "I like him fine, but I wouldn't sell the ranch to get him," the scout said. "The problem is, Cespedes and Puig can go 0-for-4 and they can still win you a game because they can run and throw. Abreu isn't that guy. He's more an Edgar Martinez-type. He has to hit or you've got nothing. He's all bat." One scout suggested four years and $32 million as a reasonable expectation for Abreu, but wouldn't be surprised if he gets $10 million a year.

So we should always just try to sign the guy that is worth the biggest contract. Instead of signing Phil Hughes and Kurt Suzuki, we should have signed Ubaldo Jimenez and Brian McCann. Then our payroll would be over $100 million dollars (and we'd have an even worse record).

This is definitely going to be interesting. It's really a lose-lose situation and probably why I'm guessing the owners don't read posts on the TD forum! When the Twins spend money (Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey), they end up being idiots 2/3 of the time. When they don't spend money (Abreu), they're cheap. While I would have loved to see them spend a little more money in a a few instances and payroll is much less of a concern than it was before Target Field, they still have some constraints. The Twins will never be the Yankees or Dodgers that can absorb numerous bad contracts. Everyone is talking about the Dodgers winning the WS, but you can't tell me having a payroll near $230 million doesn't help. On any given day they have a two outfielders making over $17 million per year sitting on the bench and a 2B making $7 million per year in the minor leagues.

1. Abreu signed for 6 years/$68 million. If any of the 30 major league teams thought he was going to be this good, he would have signed for 8 years/$200 million dollars. Blame the Twins scouts all you want, but then I would assume every team has bad scouts. 2. See #1, nobody knew he'd be this good. Plus, almost all teams are going away from a full-time DH (aside from the Red Sox/Royals) for a few reasons. First of all, it really decreases flexibility with one spot used up there without the option to give good hitters a day off from the field w/o losing their bat. Secondly, when a full-time DH is no longer hitting well (Billy Butler) it really hamstrings a team. Obviously there is nothing wrong with paying two great hitters to play 1B and DH, but it is very rare among all 15 AL teams, not just the Twins.

Here are my 3 trades. I just don't see the guys under contract (Dozier, Perkins) going anywhere and I don't think Correia has trade value. 1. Suzuki to the Dodgers for Tom Windle and Darnell Sweeney. Windle is a former Gopher LHP that is a top 10 prospect in the fairly strong Dodger org. Looks to be a back end starter that could also fill a relief role. Sweeney is a lower end prospect that plays some 2B, SS, and OF. Has some speed and power, but tends to strike out too much. The Dodgers are in win-now mode and Suzuki would present a solid upgrade over AJ Ellis and former TD favorite, Drew Butera. 2. Morales to the Mariners for Tyler Marlette. Marlette is a catcher and the #10 prospect in a fairly weak Mariner's organization. Reports are that he could be a major league starter or may end up as a solid #2. The Mariner's have a young catcher in Zunino, so they may not value that position as much going forward. If the Twins don't believe Pinto will stick behind the plate, this would be a nice prospect that the organization could use. There may be some hesitation about bringing back Morales, but if the Mariners have any hope of making the playoffs they need to score runs. Morales has looked a lot better in July and could play some 1B and DH while providing them a solid bat in the middle of their order. 3. Willingham to the Reds for AA pitcher Jon Moscot. Moscot doesn't have a high upside, but is a top 15 prospect in a so-so Red's farm system. He doesn't have a lot of upside, but could become a #4 or #5 starter. He also appears to throw a lot of strikes, which is something the Twins have generally valued. Reds really need to add a hitter with Votto and Phillips out and Willingham could slide into LF and the #6 spot in the line-up.

A lot of negativity this morning (with a sprinkle of super optimism)! I think the Twins are somewhere in between. I would be shocked if May, Meyer, Sano, and Buxton aren't on the 25 man roster at some point in mid-2015 and I think the Twins can finish within a game or two of .500 next year. I see no reason that they can't compete for a playoff spot in 2016 and I think having Glen Perkins will help. Having said that, if some team blew the Twins away they would have to consider trading anyone on the current 25 man roster. I think the idea of the Dodgers offering Cory Seager is far-fetched (he's more likely the main part of a package for David Price), but if that happened the Twins would have to make a deal. As someone mentioned above, great teams have great starting pitching and impact hitters. If you can get a great starting pitcher or impact hitter for a relief pitcher, you have to do it.

I'll take a shot at it. Fingers crossed that Sano can stick at 3B. Not sold that Vargas will ever hit well enough to be a full-time DH, but hope I'm wrong. Guessing Berrios starts at AAA, but comes up in some role in 2016. 1. Buxton CF 2. Rosario LF 3. Mauer 1B 4. Sano 3B 5. Dozier 2B 6. Arcia RF 7. Pinto DH 8. Suzuki (or someone not currently in the org) C 9. Polanco SS Bench-Plouffe 3B/OF, Santana SS/OF, Herrmann C/OF, Hicks OF SP-Meyer, Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, May RP-Perkins, Tonkin, Theilbar, Fien, Burdi, Ibarra, Pressly

If you read my post more carefully, I said those were the only 4 I'd sign for more than 2 years. The odds that the Twins sign any of the 4 is miniscule, I was simply making the point that the free agent crop is weak and the Twins are much better off promoting prospects than signing marginal free agents to 3 or 4 year deals.

It is really early to be looking at next year, but I think you could make the argument that the Twins best chance to be better next year (and long term) might be with a similar or smaller payroll. Spending on big free agents would be a band-aid, but letting the kids play would make more sense for the long term. The Twins best chance at returning to the top of the division long term will come in the form of Buxton, Sano, Meyer, May, etc. To answer your question, I would guess payroll is in the $90 million range and I'd like to see the Twins sign the following: Catcher to split time with Pinto (hopefully Suzuki for a reasonable 2-year deal) An centerfielder on a short deal to hold down until Buxton is up (maybe Colby Rasmus or Denard Span?) A bullpen arm to replace Burton (lots of options) A starter if Nolasco can't figure it out or is injured The free agent group doesn't look real strong and I'd only offer more than two years to the following: Hanley Ramirez Jon Lester Max Scherzer James Shields

Yadier Molina is out for 2-3 months. Hopefully Terry Ryan is on the phone to see if the Cardinals have any interest in Suzuki. They have a fairly deep farm system and might be willing to part with a decent prospect.

This is probably more than a little off topic, but since we're talking trades I just read the following on MLB trade rumors from an interview with Billy Beane. This fact blew me away. Has there ever been a team make enough trades to have this occur? "Asked if this was the best team he’s ever constructed, Beane said he couldn’t judge that at this point and offered praise for his assistant GMs as well. One element of which Beane is very proud is that 23 of the 25 players on the Athletics’ roster were acquired via trade — a very different method of construction from the 2001 “Moneyball” A’s."

I don't think they will look for guys like that, I simply meant that would be the only type of major league ready player that they may take back in a trade. You are correct that they have plenty of marginal players in the system, but not major league ready outfielders (particularly center fielders). As a throw in to a trade, they may take back somebody to play outfield for a couple months, especially if they trade Willingham and don't want to bring Hicks back up this year. Your first post asked where the players are that they will get in return. My answer is they will be in Fort Myers, Cedar Rapids, and New Britain, not on the 25 man roster this year.

oldguy10: I didn't list any players in return because I don't see any of the four bringing back major league level players. I would suspect that they would bring back A or AA players. If a team has a marginal OF (think Alex Presley, Sam Fuld, Darin Mastoianni), the Twins might look at that type of throw in.

May: July of 2014 Meyer: September of 2014 (in relief) Berrios: September of 2015 Stewart: June of 2017 Burdi: September of 2015 Sano: April of 2015 Buxton: July of 2015 Rosario: September of 2014 Polanco: September of 2016

I know there will be injuries, trades, and players released, but for fun I'd love to hear who everyone thinks will be on the active 25 man roster on August 31st, the day before rosters expand. I'll go first. C-Suzuki 1B-Mauer 2B-Dozier SS-Santana 3B-Plouffe LF-Arcia CF-Fuld RF-Parmelee DH-Pinto Be-Escobar Be-Nunez Be-Colabello Be-Herrman SP-Hughes SP-Gibson SP-Nolasco SP-May SP-Darnell RP-Perkins RP-Burton RP-Swarzak RP-Fien RP-Deduno RP-Thielbar RP-Tonkin Traded: Willingham, Morales, Correia, Duensing Released: Guerrier Sept. Call-ups: Meyer, Pino, Fryer, Florimon, Sano? Notably not called-up: Hicks

Your comparisons are interesting. Clearly Cruz and Morales should have accepted the QO, so that would tell me that the teams probably overvalued them and/or wanted the draft pick compensation believing they'd decline the offers. Beltran did have a 2.4 WAR in 2013, but also had a 3.6 WAR in 2012, had been healthy, and found a team (Yankees) with money to spend and a big desire to win. Unless Willingham hits 20 home runs in the 2nd half, there is no way on earth that the Twins make him a QO. Looking at last year's free agent outfielders, here would be the most similar players in my mind (they don't all bring similar skills, but they're in their 30s and are borderline starters with some injury issues) and what they signed for. Name Age Contract Marlon Byrd 36 2yrs/$16 million Nate McLouth 32 2yrs/$10.75 Michael Morse 32 1yr/$6 David Murphy 32 2yrs/$12 If the Twins value bringing Willingham back (which I think they may), I would guess a 1 year deal in the 6-8 million dollar range to DH and play some outfield. I really can't see a team giving him more than 2 years or more than $8 million annually.

If the Twins decide to be sellers in the next couple weeks, I would hope Terry Ryan would keep an open mind when other teams call. In my mind, you can put the trade pieces in 4 groups. Group A--Not under contract in 2015, Some Value, Most Likely to be Traded 1. Morales: If he starts to hit, he would have the most value to a team with playoff aspirations. While he's struggled since joining the Twins, he has a history of being a solid major league hitter. Money could scare off a few teams, but most playoff teams won't be concerned if they think he's the missing piece. His lack of a position on defense eliminates a few teams as well. I just don't see him having a place on the Twins roster in the future. I have a hard time believing that Scott Boras won't be pushing hard to get him a multi-year deal after the fiasco this off-season and I don't see the Twins being willing to lock him up to DH with guys like Arcia, Sano, Pinto, and Vargas coming up. If I were Terry Ryan, I would push hard to trade him for mid-level prospects. 2. Suzuki: I see him having the 2nd most value to other teams. He has been great for the Twins, but he's really only a fit for teams that have a need at catcher which limits potential fits. Gardenhire seems to love him, so I think the Twins value him as much as anyone else which may make an extension more likely. If I were Terry Ryan, I'd gauge interest in Suzuki and trade him if I felt the return was adequate and hope that we could possibly resign him in the off-season. 3. Willingham: In my mind, he has the 3rd most value. His bat could play on a few playoff teams as a platoon player that plays some OF, DH, and a big bat off the bench. I don't think the return would be anything special, maybe an a class A prospect or two. I don't see him having a ton of value to the Twins, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him sign a 1-year deal with the Twins. If I were Terry Ryan, I'd try to trade him, but only if I'm getting someone of value. If not, I keep him as a decent bat and discuss a 1-year deal in the off-season. Group B: Not under contract in 2015, Little to No Value, More likely released than traded 1. Correia: He would have to pitch much better to have any value as a #5 starter on a playoff team. 2. Guerrier: Guys like him are a dime a dozen and can be picked up off the waiver wire. Group C--Under control beyond 2014, Little Value, May not have a place on 2015 roster 1. Burton: I really doubt the Twins would pay him $3.6 million for 2015, so it looks like a $200,000 buyout in the off season. I doubt he has any value on trade market. I would guess he finishes out the season and is bought out. 2. Duensing: Has some value, but Twins probably don't want to pay him close to $3 million through arbitration in 2015. May bring back a low-level prospect and that trade should be made if the Twins don't see him being part of the 2015 team. 3. Pelfrey: What was Terry Ryan thinking? Group D: Under team control for a few years, Lots of value, Very, very unlikely to be traded 1. Dozier: Dozier is a very good 2B that has an above average bat, speed, and solid defense. The return would have to be huge since the Twins have him under control for a few years. Potential fits: Orioles, Yankees, Giants 2. Perkins: An above average closer always has value to playoff teams and being left handed won't hurt either. With a reasonable salary (for a closer) over the next 3 years I doubt the Twins are eager to trade him, but they should listen if someone wants to blow them out of the water. Potential fits: Orioles, Indians, Tigers, Angels, Pirates, Giants 3. Plouffe: Not as valuable as the other two, but being a 3rd baseman could make him intriguing to a few teams with a need. Since he is under control for 3 years, I think the Twins would need to get a prospect that is close to major league ready. Potential fits: Royals, Angels, Yankees

I don't see the Twins being sellers until after the All-Star break, but if this slide continues and they become sellers could the Royals provide a good trade partner? As I read this weeks Grantland rankings (http://grantland.com/features/the-30-mlb-parity-rangers-indians-royals-dodgers/) it struck me that the Twins may be able to give the Royals some help and they also have some prospects that would be of interest to the Twins. The article lists the Royals biggest needs as 3rd base and corner outfield. While trading Trevor Plouffe may be a risk until Sano makes it to the big leagues and shows he can play 3rd, it would seem to me that for the right prospects we could package him with Willingham and give the Royals help in both areas. Plouffe would be an upgrade on the awfulness provided by Moustakas and Willingham would provide some pop and the Royals have a late inning defensive replacement in Jarrod Dyson. From the Twins perspective, the Royals have 3 shortstops among their top 10 prospects and a nice group of pitchers in their top 20. Would the Royals give up two top 15 prospects for Plouffe and Willingham? Would the Twins be willing to gamble on Sano being ready next spring?

I liked the Hughes signing at the time and he's pitched great, but he is not a #1 on a World Series caliber team. On a team with a chance to win playoff series, I would say Hughes is a #3 and Gibson a #4. Here would be how I would hope that the Twins rotation might look like the next couple years, with 2016 or 2017 as a much more likely years to expect playoff wins. 2014: Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, Correia, ???? 2015: Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, May 2016: Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, May, (Berrios in Sept.) 2017: Nolasco, Gibson, Meyer, May, Stewart, Berrios

Other Reachable Milestones With two wins this season, Ron Gardenhire will reach the 1,000 win total for his career. I know it wasn't meant to be funny, but the first thing that popped into my mind was that calling this reachable implied that it isn't a certainty!

A lot of really good players on that list, and Hank Blalock. How on earth did Hank Blalock hit 32 home runs and drive in 110? Baseball is hard to understand sometimes!