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twinsajsf

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Everything posted by twinsajsf

  1. twinsajsf
    Ok, Ok, let's not get hysterical here. None of the three players in question--Parmelee, Presley, Bartlett--is good, so while choosing Bartlett over the other two is a mild surprise, it hardly qualifies as "insane". Get a grip.
  2. twinsajsf
    Wait, didn't Correia go 9-13 for one of the worst hitting teams in MLB last year? How exactly does that equate to "an automatic loss"? I'm not opposed to trading him for value, but "dumping" him seems a little extreme.
  3. twinsajsf
    I like all of your position players assumptions except for Mastro--I think Hicks earns another trip North out of Spring Training. As for the pitching, it's too early to worry about what to do with Worley, Deduno and Diamond. Best case scenario is that everyone stays healthy and pitches well, while other teams suffer some rotation injuries, and we are able to trade one or more of those three (or Correia) for help in the lineup or a good prospect. Reality, however, suggests that at least one projected rotation or bullpen guy (and maybe one of the 3 guys w/out options) will start the season on the dl, and at least one will pitch himself into a AAA spot or just being cut.
  4. twinsajsf
    Get within shouting distance of .500 while seeing 3-5 young players advance and solidify themselves as everyday players or rotation locks for the foreseeable future.
  5. twinsajsf
    While I would be mildly surprised, I would not be crazy shocked to see the Twins add Garza or Arroyo to the mix at this point. It sounds like we are willing to meet Garza's asking price per year, but for only 3 years vs. the 5 he wants. Maybe a 4th year option? Likewise, it sounds like we are not interested in more than a two year deal with Arroyo. The reason I don't think this is crazy, despite decent in-house competition for the 5th spot (Deduno, Gibson, Worley, Diamond, Albers) is that it would hedge against injuries and provide us with some decent trade value that we currently do not have. If we do not have any injuries in ST, and one or more of those mentioned above is pitching well, injuries to other rotations around the league could cause a team to panic and send us something pretty good in return for one of them or Correia.
  6. twinsajsf
    Thanks, Seth! Sounds like Gilmartin was on the fast-track in the Atlanta system before the injury last year. I think this is a great pickup in exchange a guy with limited value (bench bat & backup corner outfielder on a good team), especially to a rebuilding team.
  7. twinsajsf
    I like Pelfrey on a two-year deal for (relatively) cheap. The seond half aof last season he had the highest velocity (94-95) and so/9 (7.1) of his career, showing that there is definitely potential upside there at age 29. If it doesn't work out, so what? $5-6M/yr. on a short-term deal is chump change these days for starting pitching. I also would sign either Arroyo at 3/$36M or Garza at 4/$64, but that's as high as i would go in years or dollars for either. It looks like the market going forward (with new TV revenue dollars) is shaping up like this: $5-8M/yr for #4-5 starters, $9-12M for 3+, 3, 3- starters, $13-16M, yr. for 2+, 2, 2- starters, $17-19M for 1- starters and $20M+/yr. for the 7-10 truly dominant "aces". I would rate Correia, Pelfrey and Hughes as solid 4/5 guys that most teams would welcome at the back end of their rotations. Nolasco and Arroyo are 3+ guys and Garza a 2+.
  8. twinsajsf
    Definitely looks like we are exhausting possibilities for a poor-man's ace/#2 before settling for Pelfrey, which is good. I can't believe it now looks like 3/$36 for Arroyo, according to latest reports, but Berardino also says the Twins view him in front of Nolasco in the rotation, so I suppose that fits. Garza at 4/$64, Arroyo at 3/$36 or Colon at 2/$24. Wow. My guess is that unless Arizona can swing a trade for Price of Samardzija in the next 48 hrs., they will take Garza off the board. Likewise, I think Arroyo is using us to extract year 3 from the Reds, and he will ultimately sign there. And again, Colon wants to stay in Oakland, just waiting for the second year. I would take any of those three, in that order and at those lofty prices, before settling for Pelfrey, which unfortunately is the likeliest scenario.
  9. twinsajsf
    3/$27M is VERY reasonable, but I doubt he signs for that. My guess is 2/$24M from the Sox.
  10. twinsajsf
    Hmm . . . seems like the Twins could have beaten that offer w/out seriously impacting the farm system. Curious.
  11. twinsajsf
    Nothing. We are at least one year away from contention, so let's just try to find out who can stick amongst the young guys we have: Arcia, Hicks, Parmelee, Presley, Mastro and maybe Buxton/Rosario as the season wears on. Maybe even Plouffe if Sano makes the big jump successfully. Parmelee and Hicks are former 1st Rounders, so let's give them both one more extended MLB tryout before moving on. If we were hoping to contend for a playoff berth in 2014, that would be different, but as it stands there is little downside and significant upside to letting these guys try to emerge as legit MLBers.
  12. twinsajsf
    I'm fine with not getting Rajai Davis, especially on a 2-yr. deal. Let's let Hicks, Presley and Mastro fight it out as place holders until Buxton is ready, since we aren't likely to be in contention until 2015 anyway. We'll know more about these four, as well as Parmelee, Arcia and possibly Rosario after 2014, and with Willy coming off the books, we can decide then whether we need to invest in another outfielder.
  13. twinsajsf
    This is very well stated. Obviously, if Maurer and Taylor were GUARANTEED to put of those WAR numbers over the next 5 years, this would be a great deal for the Twins, but since Maurer actually put up Gibson-like nimber in his first foray into the ML, this is hardly guaranteed. Meanwhile, the Mariners can have much greater confidence that Correia, while not having nearly Maurer's upside, will strengthen the back end of their rotation (rather than the Maurer wild-card), and Perkins will be of tremendous value to a team actually competing for a playoff berth. This makes a classic get-better-NOW (almost definitely) for the Mariners vs. (maybe) cash-in-big-later for the Twins deal, which is how these things are supposed to work. to say that the Mariners would scoff at this as a horribly lopsided deal is quite laughable. That said, they may well get an even better deal from someone else, or maybe the Twins actually think THEY can compete now and don't want to give up Perkins.
  14. twinsajsf
    Theilbar??? What did you not like about his 1.76 ERA in 49 appearances last year? Seems like we would want to see him actually give up some runs at the Major League level before we DFA him? I think this decision really comes down to options, or the lack thereof. Hendriks was going to have to earn a spot in the rotation out of ST or we would lose him anyway. Worley (also out of options) and Diamond both seem more likely than Hendriks to do that, and even they will not be favored over Gibson and Deduno heading in.
  15. twinsajsf
  16. twinsajsf
    Recognizing first the possibility that Kazmir had little interest in joining the Twins vs. A's, I'm wondering what the feeling is out there about Kazmir on a 2/22 vs. Nolasco on a 4/48 contract. Personally, I prefer Kazmir and his contract, since he has more upside and the commitment is shorter. In fact, I'd have gone higher (2/24 or 25) for Kazmir if he really did prefer the A's to see if he might think twice.
  17. twinsajsf
    Hmm . . . I had always heard positive accounts of Cruz as a "clubhouse guy" and teammate, so I did a little searching after reading your post, and again, all positives. Can you post a link to something negative, or are you basing it on his biogenesis suspension (i.e.--baggage of a different kind)? I also did some searching on Hughes salary projections, adjusted for the Lincecum signing, and the HIGHEST projection I could find is the one you referenced (3/$30M), with several still lower in yrs/$'s, so 2/$20M still seems pretty realistic at this point. Of course, WE might have to add the extra year because we're a less attractive destination (see previous post re: Cruz).
  18. twinsajsf
    We'll have to agree to disagree on Hughes. For what it's worth, Steve Adams at mlbtraderumors has done a pretty good job with FA contract projections, and he just predicted 1/$8M for Hughes. I do think he will be had for 2/$20M. Cruz will get a qualifying offer, lowering the market for him slightly, but upon further consideration, he will likely get 3 yrs., and to come to a non-contender would likely require the 1-yr. qualifying amount ($14M) per year, so let's say 3/$42. And yes, like Willingham, he's terrible in the field, so depending on the progress of Buxton/Hicks, maybe he moves to DH for 2015/16 when Willy is gone.
  19. twinsajsf
    Rotation: 1. Sign Kazmir 3/$35-40M 2. Sign Hughes or Feldman @ 2/$20M 3. Deduno 4. Correia 5. Gibson ----------- Diamond/Worley for competition/injury Lineup: CF Presley/Hicks (placeholders for Buxton) 2B Dozier 1B Mauer RF Sign Nelson Cruz 2/$26M LF Arcia DH Willingham 3B Plouffe (placeholder for Sano) C Pinto SS Florimon
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