DocBauer

Are you speaking of an African swallow or a European swallow?

I didn't read the original discussion/post, but I certainly get the gist of this conversation. I'm also dense enough or lost enough that I'm uncertain of the BYTO reference. But I really like this post from Goat! Hunter has always been one of my favorite all time players, and I was heartbroken when he left the Twins. He's said some thing that disappointed me or ticked me off over the years, but always liked and respected him. And I have always applauded his efforts to bring baseball back to the inner cities. I know this thread isn't about that, but I just wanted to say it. As to the mods on here, I think they do a tremendous job! They are part of the community and discussions while "moderating" without "policing". In fact, the harshness of any action they partake in involves little more than a hand slap and reminder to be civil.

Nothing too surprising in all of this. Once again, I think Buxton builds on this past season and shouldn't be counted out of his spot with the Twins right out of camp so soon. Sano to the OF makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. It's totally counter productive and counter intuitive to his entire baseball career. Arcia would probably be a better option! And no pun intended, but he's out of options, and needs a spot, even as a role player to begin the season. Cotts? Meh. It could be a good signing. But I think there are a couple of better options out there. Santana really isn't much of an issue either. The Twins will keep 2 catcher, 4 or 5 OF's, 3 middle INF's, 2 or 3 corner INF's. In most any way you configure the 13 man player roster, there is room for a 13th player who could fill almost any role. In this case, Santana as an INF/OF utility type. I don't know...I didn't listen to the interview so I may be missing something...but I'd like to hear a little more imagination and a little more aggressiveness in the Twins thinking. I'm not say go hog wild and blow up the roster with major moves, but, it's not the time to just limit yourself either.

Hmmm....I see your point here but I am going to disagree. Big and strong with a big arm, it appears to me he's been promoted very aggressively despite being a little young for his level, and while his bat is behind, he hasn't been allowed to repeat a year, or part of a year, to let his bat catch up. (The same arguement could be made for Turner as well I think) Without getting a true fix on his hitting potential, I'd say speculation puts him pretty close to where he is.

Sooner or later, don't the Twins have to slow Navaretto down and let him spend a second year at a level to let his bat catch up a bit?1

Personally, I believe Dozier's only problem is getting worn out by the second half of the past couple of seasons. I know he's very good and we rely on him, and at times he has practically carried the offense each of the past 2 first halves, but can't the guy get a day off once in a while? Hey, I'm intrigued by Polanco and I think he's going to be good...versatile...and clutch. But I don't believe he's ready to replace Dozier yet. I have maintained that you trade Plouffe for the right deal, and that deal might just be that young catcher if you can find him. But my problem with trading him is the OF. Example: Buxton begins the season in the minors. Hicks begins the season in CF. Who is in RF? Arcia? Then who is the DH? With Plouffe around, there is just less un-certainty with the lineup as you still have the Plouffe/Sano/Mauer 3B/1B/DH rotation.

With little exception, each of the Twins milb affiliates ranked among the top 5-ish in their respective leagues in ERA, SO's and CG's. Also, recent drafts have the seen the Twins seemingly changing direction in regard to the type of pitcher drafted. I'd like to hear more about the changes and concentration of new philosophy, and how things are stacking up at this point. Also, with the fairly decent success of 40 yo Torii Hunter this past season, any thought to persuade Mark DeRosa to join the team for a World Series push in 2016?

This would be the FA I would target and persue IF I were to persue one. But in addition to getting Nolasco off the books, I now need to get Santana or Hughes off the books. Or, move Hughes to the bullpen as some have suggested. But I am not fully convinced he would be an upgrade over a healthy Hughes or Santana. Or enough of one to warrant the investments when I have Berrios, May and Duffey plus Gibson.

Palacios is almost scary. Forget the errors. They happen for young infielders and for lots of reasons. To hit that well this soon is scary. He could be scary good. Or we could be scared if he was a one season wonder.

I like this point made by Nick. I would like the Twins to have an Ace. I think they are downright awesome to have. But I would argue that having one does NOT guarantee you anything in the post season. To me, the primary benefit to said Ace pitcher is during the regular season, taking his turn in the rotation, giving your team a better than average chance to win the game. That better than average chance can be especially nice if it ends a losing streak, or comes near the end of the season with a big series on the line. This can be somewhat negated, however, by having a deep rotation. But in the post season, if everyone needs an Ace to get there, and be there, and win there, then you are pitting your Ace against the other team's Ace, thus negating any benefit or advantage in your favor. See the part about a deep rotation again.

There is no question Gray is an excellent young pitcher and would seem to have a bright future. "Ace-Dom"? Maybe. And yeah, I want the Twins to have an ace. I also want to be 5 deep in the rotation as 1 or 2 top starters and lack of depth doesn't do anything to guarantee success and victory either. It's easy to be flippant and just say "do it" and invest $200M for 6 years on a FA pitcher and speculate that he guarantees something, and that he won't get hurt, or lose his stuff early, or that he'll be worth at least a portion of his money the final year or two, or that his contract won't be an albatross. But the investment in years and dollars are real. And they can affect the structure of a team. Likewise, trading for someone like Gray carries the value of top prospects that could, potentially, outweighs the value of the one player you acquire. No guarantees either way. There is definite reason to believe a healthy Hughes will be close, or closer, to his 2014 self. And there is nothing to indicate Santana won't be ready to pitch as well as he ever has. (Debate whether that is as a 3 with 2 potential, or a 2 with occassional 1 moments) We still haven't seen the best of Gibson, and more to the point, May. And while I'm not going to say Berrios will develop in to an ace.....the possibility exists. I believe as a TEAM, the Twins are better off upgrading at catcher, adding a couple real quality arms in the pen, and maybe another bat, (whether as a primary or good bench option).

I don't know, I just can't get excited about Harrison. I want to be but just can't get there. I find Slegers very interesting. I find it rather odd that at his size he only sits in the low 90's. But the control is excellent, obviously. And I have to believe his length gives an illusion of greater velocity and helps hide his pitch a moment longer. I know he's no teenager, but I keep wondering if a few more ticks might be added to his FB as he builds up innings and arm strength.

I do not want to be all Dougie-Downer here or anything, and I know it is only a very, very SSS at this point, but I have to wonder if ABW2 is showing a much better eye...has made an adjustment to his stance that is letting him see better (longer)...or is he just not swinging right now in hopes of walks?

If he could hit anywhere close to Colabello, and is a good enough athlete to actually play a decent OF, 1B and be a backup or #3 catcher, it could be a nice find for the bench. If anyone thinks this is a "catcher of the future" find then someone needs to have their job re-assessed!

I would bump Gonsalves up a notch on that list I think. Where I would disagree with some folks...or they with me as it were...is on Nolasco and Arcia. I actually think there is decent value on both of these guys, though the team and match has to make sense. For instance, a healthy Nolasco is a very solid, dependable experienced MLSP, pretty much in the NL for his career. If you were a team like the Dodgers, let's say, and were heavy at the top of you rotation, but lacked depth, and a veteran guy that you were very familiar with was available for around $6M per season, for 2 seasons, and you might even get another low prospect thrown in the deal, and it only cost you a B+ prospect, you might be tempted. We can talk all we want to about the failings of Arcia last year, but previous to that, he was considered a big building block in our future. Again, I am reminded of an article written about mid-season here on TD about Arcia, (by Nick I want to say), that covers Arcia's numbers his first couple of seasons. And all I kept thinking was how I didn't want to lose a guy like that. And that if I was another team's GM, that's a guy I'd love to get! I can't say I know exactly what the value of these two guys is right now. But in the right situation, or the right package, I think both of them have actual value, and are not just discard notions as some feel they are.

I hope you're wrong on this. And that's not a knock on Nolasco. I liked the signing when it happened, and I won't/can't/don't hate on the guy for bad injury luck. But, since his signing, May has really started to come on strong. Duffey has continued to climb the ladder and had a great season, minors and majors last season. Also, the team has now invested in Santana and the solid but unspectacular Milone has gotten healthy and been exactly that...solid but unspectacular. IMO, there just isn't room for Nolasco any longer, and a fresh start is needed. Again, IMO, he has value, and I feel that picking up half his remaining 2 years and a low B or high C prospect should hopefully get him moved. Now, do the Twins get back a solid RP in this deal or maybe a high B prospect I can't say. But he becomes a veteran depth starter for another team for half price for 2 years. We get the 40 man room, save another $6M, and un-crowd the rotation which still has a couple guys having to probably head to the bullpen.

I've been on this bandwagon for a while now. While I have absolutely no objection whatsoever to going out and making an aggressive move for a young catcher, not being able to fully pinpoint exactly who that guy should be, much less the cost, I feel that for at least 1 season, though it might take and make sense for a 2 year deal, the signing of AJ is the smart move. As you state, his throwing and overall defense are still solid. He actually hit this season above his career norms. Even with regression, he would be a better than average hitter, with some power, and a perfect compliment to Suzuki. Further, his veteran presence as a backstop shouldn't be ignored. This provides a pair of veterans to help manage the staff. It improves the offense, and AJ even offers a decent PH option when not in the starting lineup. His signing allows tradeable assets to be used elsewhere, and allows at least one more season to see if the Twins actually have some viable young options in Turner and Garver in the system.

I think it's time to go ahead and tackle this topic. It's no secret that one of the prime reasons the Twins improved from a 90+ loss team to an 80+ Wildcard contender is they put together the best overall starting rotation they have had in years. It was downright respectable! And there were very few of the 3rd inning blowout sogoaheadandturnthestationorgettoyourhoneydolistsinceyouhadnothingbettertodo games. Despite a down-ish year from Hughes, half a season from Santana, brief contributions from Nolasco, May being removed from the rotation, having to actually depend on Mike Pelfrey every 5th day, and assorted injuries late in the season, the Twins were very close to shaving a run off their ERA from the year before. Imagine what better health, Santana for a full season and just a little better luck here and there could have meant?! But while we know how important pitching is to the game, while we are all a bit giddy that our beloved Twins actually had some and may have more coming, there is still a thought of "more" floating out there. As in more=better. What can we do to take that next step? So the questions for 2016 and the Twins starting rotation are: Should we try to get better? Can we really get better? How much better can we be and how do we get there? First, let's look at what is in house: 1) Phil Hughes. He was an outstanding FA acquisition for 2014 and had probably the best year of his career. His "pedigree" is outstanding, probably as strong as feelings of frustration over inconsistency in his career. But he has won 15 games 3 times, an OK AL ERA, a solid Whip, and excellent SO/BB ratio. After a bit of a slow start in '14 he was excellent. In '15 his slow start lingered a bit longer, and while he never quite hit his '14 stride, he actually pitched very well for about half a season before injuries slowed and shelved him. Talented, strapping and happy in Minnesota, I think a return to his 2014 numbers, or close, is not to be unexpected if healthy. 2) Ervin Santana. There is no question only half season from Santana was greatly disappointing. Despite the surprise first half contributions from Pelfrey, you almost have to believe having Santana for the full season would have been worth at least a couple more wins. An examination of Santana's career shows him to be very, very consistent. You can almost guarantee 32 GS, 195-ish IP, 165 SO and at least 13 wins with a shot at 14-17 if on a quality team. There are no guarantees, of course, but he seems healthy and fit for 2016 after his half season with the Twins. Looking beyond a couple weeks in August when he was very much off, he sandwiched some outstanding pitching to begin and end his inaugural Twins season. 3) Kyle Gibson. I get frustrated when people jump on Gibson. He is not exactly old, lost a season to TJ surgery, made a hell of a quick recovery back to the mound and competence, and has only pitched 2 seasons in the ML. And all he has done is pitch solid one year, pitch even better the second year, and at various times has been the Twins best starter. In his 2 ML seasons, Gibson has had moments of brilliance where he looks like a possible #1, and no worse than a quality #2 SP. Now, he's not really going to be a #1 pitcher, more than likely, but the point is how good he can be at times...that he is still improving...and really just needs a little more consistency. Only 2 years in the league, I think we can count on some additional improvement. 4) May. He might look great in the bullpen, but you just don't take a young arm talent like him out of the rotation until or unless you don't have a choice. The control issues that we heard would hold him back from being a top of the rotation starter have been curtailed. He showed real sign of improvement when still in the rotation, and lead the Twins in several categories. 5) Duffey. Converted from relief, the curveball specialist...along with Sano...almost single-handedly preserved the Twins second half last season. He was darn near "Ace-like" during his couple months of performances. I don't think anyone expects him to be a top rotation SP, but is what he showed all sustainable? Even close? We sure need to find out and he deserves the chance to prove it. 6) Milone. He is nothing special. But he is a pitcher. And he showed, when healthy, why he has won previously despite pedestrian stuff. Simply, he appears to be a very solid be counted back of the rotation contributor that can win. But he also has the least upside of any candidate here. And with a few breakdowns here and there, I wonder if he might be best as a swing man. 7) Berrios. I believe he has a very solid chance to break with the club. What could hold him back is not service time, but rather, a logjam of options in the rotation and bullpen and the Twins letting him get a month in AAA while they sort through various options. 8) Nolasco. A big wild card. He is not a bad pitcher. The majority of his career has been unspectacular, but very solid and consistent. But he must have signed his Twins contract with a cursed pen. He could help. He could surprise. He could be needed if an injury bug suddenly hits the Twins in ST. But otherwise...this is the one guy the Twins should be trying to move in any manner they can. If you accept the numbers provided by MLTraderumors, the Twins would enter 2016 about $10M under the top payroll the team has ever had. Could and would the Twins be willing to top that mark? I believe they would. While not earth shattering, the Twins have added payroll before when the addition(s) in question meant winning. Also, said highest payroll ever will have been 5 years removed. Inflation and all don't ya know! But how much higher than $10M might they go? Another $10M? That gives you $20M for a top of the rotation starter, but with needs still in the bullpen, and probably a bench bat, maybe help at catcher in the form of a FA as well. If you can move Nolasco, and say it only costs you half his salary each of the next 2 years to do so, you save another $6M. Based on projections, if you trade Plouffe as part of a deal somewhere, you save another $7M. That's another $13M or so, and you could add a couple more if they let Fien go. But you still have to address the pen, catcher, and maybe the bench as well, at some point. And if Plouffe is traded, do we then need to consider a DH signing? The whole point is the Twins have needs, assets, and also money to spend. But it's also a business. The Pohlads will not break out their American Express card for $20M per for 6 years on a player. Nor would anyone. The Twins have 3 choices here: 1) Trade 3-5 prospects/players for a young-ish top of the rotation SP to push their rotation and the team over the top. This allows your relative "choice" of said player, and possibly more cost control for the next 2-5 years. But you are going to lose 1 of Berrios, May, Gibson or Duffey for sure, probably Kepler, another milb pitcher or two, etc. Does this acquisition improve the team enough to warrant the cost in dollars and prospects? 2) Keep the prospects for yourself or additional moves, and fork out $18-23M for 5-6 years for a 30-32 yo FA SP. You've got, in theory, $10M to work with though, and another $13-15M if you can swing some moves. Could you possibly move Hughes or Santana as well as Nolasco? Because we still have finances to consider as well as additional additions. 3) Stay your hand. You move Nolasco. You may move Plouffe for additional help. But you believe in and trust a rebound for Hughes, Santana to keep on keeping on, Gibson, May, Duffey to continue to improve and make way for young stud Berrios. You re-in force the pen, add to catcher, possibly add a bench player or DH, and feel secure that you have a talent, deep, and mostly young rotation that would only be improved somewhat by another veteran starter. As long as what you have is healthy. Those are the rotation candidates. The team really has 3 options to consider in all of this. Should the team make a big move? Which option? How much does it improve the team? It's all your call.

Personally, because he's a catcher, because of his big year last season and a much stronger second half this year vs his disappointing first half, I'd have Garver higher. I had almost forgot about Williams. He and/or Melotakis could provide a huge lift to the Twins bullpen. Hopefully soon. Speaking of...seems as though there was some very, very bad mojo going through the Twins system last season and it only targeted top RHRP. If fate reverses itself, the Twins could have 4 or 5 top RH arms pounding on the door before the year is done. Seth, If I'm not mistaken, when Bard was drafted, he was to be a SP yes? Is there any word as to a return to the rotation? Is his future now in the bullpen? Or is the pen simply the best place for him to continue his journey back for the time being?

I read lists like these and the first thought is, "Really? This guy is in the 30's (or 40's)?" And my second thought is always, "Man, despite graduation of some top guys, there is still a lot of potential talent in this system!"

Agreed. And really, it depends on what Ryan does. IMHO, he should bring in a LH arm, (unless he just brings Cotts back which isn't terrible) and a power RH arm to team with Jepsen, and probably one of May or Duffey. That leaves one spot between Tonkin and Pressly. I do believe, however, that Pressly has an option left?

At least this trade option makes sense. There is equal risk and reward for both teams, as well as potentially equal value. Arcia would always be the better offensive player, more than likely, while Zunino a better defensive one. I wonder what a change of scenery and Brunansky could do for Zunino?

Hicks is a given, and so is Arcia I'm sure, barring a trade. Not sure I agree on Tonkin and Pinto as automatics, (or close to). I can absolutely see scenarios where either or both make the club, but I don't think either is better than 50/50 at this point.

I agree on Wade showing promise with his tools and his early plate discipline. If he didn't have that, coming from college ball to rookie ball, I'd certainly have my doubts. He could be fun to watch this season. I wonder if he could end up being a mid-season promotion candidate to Ft Myers? Wheeler and Lee, like Rogers and a couple others, give this Twins a few different LH candidates that seem...at least initially...to lack that something to be a top SP prospect. Sure hope at least one of them can find a real niche in the bullpen at least. I am also a bit higher on Michael, though not as high as Thrylos. I don't feel he is a top prospect by any means, but speed, OB, decent hit tool and defense at a few different positions makes me feel he has a chance to be a solid ML utility player. Goodrum is a guy I've always been rooting for. I'm actually surprised to see he is still only 23 as it just seems he's been around for a long time. It seems the Twins have bounced him around a bit, position to position and the such, and I've always wondered if that has slowed his progress a bit. I hope he is a late bloomer, because with his athleticism, even if he's an age 26 ML'er as a utility type he could be very useful.

I agree with Seth here. There was an obvious attempt on the Twins part to separate these two in order that they could play daily. (And possibly not suffer from any direct, personal competition?) While Turner certainly hasn't set the world on fire with his bat thus far, I find it encouraging that despite the full level skip, that he has adapted, learned, and improved each second half of the past 2 seasons. And improved rather substantially from first to second half. I was disappointed in Garver's bat this season. But again, he did advance a level. And he did perform better in the second half of the season. So I choose to be an optimist in regard to '16. In fact, I think we've hear and read enough of these guys, since drafted, that a solid AFL from...hopefully... both, could make us all feel a lot better about the Twins catching future.