DocBauer

Thanks for your comment as well as the share from you, Thrylos. All of this leads me back to my previous comments, and comments I have made in previous posts on TD. I love the Twins, heaven help me, lol, and have been a devoted fan for 45 years. (51yo if you are counting) I've been with them through thick and thin. While never having time or patience to examine the modern day metrics others embrace, I have followed the ML club and milb clubs and drafts, etc, with passion and detail. And the past few years, I've been very proud of the global moves they have made in regard to scouting and signings. They have been, IMO, borderline cutting edge in regards to such, and the building of facilities such as this, along with the amazing complex at Ft Myers. What has driven me crazy the past couple of years though, is the feeling that the organization, as a whole, is bi-polar. I wholly applaud this latest endeavor and complex. I think it's amazing people in the DR recognize and applaud the Twins there. The Twins have made great inroads abroad, including what they do in Ft Myers. But the feeling I have, is they seem to stop at that point. Is there some rule that states you can't have multiple milb roving instructors? The new Twins should be concentrating on what other teams don't do. They should have, at every level, including the ML level, a Latin background coach, or at the least, a roving instructors, pitching, batting, catching, etc, who is Latin. Do what nobody else does. Be on the cutting edge.

Excellent post! This team has the financial flexability to still make some moves, and the need to do so. I believe Falvey and Levine have, and IMO rightly so, have been focusing on Dozier first and foremost while letting the smoke clear on the FA front. A Dozier move may lead to a Santana move, and would also lead to an infield move, etc. Meanwhile, keeping Dozier changes the complexion of the infield and probably retains Santana for now. Further, with smoke clearing and dust settling, there are still remaining FA targets that could help the 2017 Twins, cheaper and shorter contracts as we get closer to ST, and possible flip candidates there as well. I truly believe these guys have some good ideas in mind and you will see a few solid/interesting moves taking place over the next couple of weeks. Questionable rotation and nothing truly worth bringing in as an obvious upgrade? Short of a potential flyer/steal, make your bullpen deeper and bettter to keep games close and hold leads and keep games close. Worried about said rotation holding runs down? In addition to said bullpen move (s), add a quality RH 4th OF to augment depth and match ups with the LH Rosario and Kepler. Not in love with Park and Vargas, (and I've previously stated I'd like to see what they can do), sign that veteran power bat to augment the depth and scoring ability of my lineup. Once again, none of these moves has to be long term, and none of them block up and coming talent, unless you talk about Park and Vargas, and could be flip candidates. There are a lot of ways to build a roster. The market didn't open up for Dozier as hoped. Fine. It is what it is. So what can you do NOW to improve the Twins for 2017 and beyond? A lot of that will still remain more behind the scenes. But there are still real options on the field that can be addressed as well.

I absolutely agree with your post. And I'm not saying the Twins should or should not go after one of the remaining bats on the market. But it is an interesting idea. It's the one area where you could make a move/change to the everyday lineup since there are still question marks surrounding Vargas and Park and each has at least 1 option remaining. Personally, I think both still have potential and wouldn't be surprised to see a healthy Park hit .250-is, as he did for a while, and crank out 24-25 HR. If Mauer gets hurt again, could see real opportunity for both in the lineup. I know it's really easy to get down on the Twins rotation options, and it remains our biggest concern, and there is a sense of disappointment with no other top young candidate coming in AT THE MOMENT, but I actually hold out some hope that I don't believe is misguided. Hughes is a huge question mark, but if he could return to his former healthy self, even a couple months after the season began, it could be a real boon. Santana is solid. Santiago is nothing special and can be frustrating, but his career numbers are solid, and he closed out last year much better for us than when he arrived. A 2013-14 version of Gibson is also solid. I'm still high on Berrios and May as well. I feel Wheeler and Haley offer better depth options than the likes of Dean and Albers, at least marginally. Mejia and Gonsalves could make appearances by the second half of the year. It's a collection of 3-5 starters who occassionally pitch like a #2. You aren't going to build a contender with this bunch barring some real surprises. But it's a group that has potential, IMO, to be at least average while the young guys, including Berrios and May, gain experience and continue to move up. There are still tradesome possible at some point, as well as a potential FA signing next off season. So I maintain if a Dozier deal doesnt happen at this point, bring in a RP to deepen and improve the pen. Find that quality 4th OF you feel can really help and play. Work in some platoons and match ups where it makes sense. Make 2017 the best it can be, make the milb and organizational upgrades where you will, keep playing the young guys on a daily basis, promote aggressively the second half of the season, hold auditions and look to future trades and signings for the 2018 rotation while building that lineup and bullpen. This was never going to be fixed in one off season with one trade anyway.

I wouldn't even pretend to know what other ML clubs do as far as facilities here and around the globe, except for when I hear or read a particular news release. But the TWINS have always struck me as a team that did things very well from Ft Myers to Venezuela, Puerto Rico and now this complex. There seems to have been long standing efforts to really take care of prospects, their development and education and overall quality of life experience once a part of the organization. Which also frustrates me at times when I feel they lack coaches and instructors at the ML and milb levels at times that have a Latin background to continue to assist and develop said young men. Or the embracing of information and metrics...of which I am not always the strongest proponent of but still see value...within the scouting department. I think this is an example of an organization that wants to continue and grow. And I do believe further changes are forthcoming with our new administration. If you aren't a top market, wealthy team, it only makes sense to be aggressive and forward thinking in other areas of finding, signing and developing prospects.

Great post from Thrylos and I commend him for the detail and hard work that went in to it! And I get and appreciate his possible projections for Mauer were he able to focus more/better on pitches in certain zones and lay off the others. But I just don't believe this is feasible. I am not bashing Mauer and completely appreciate his past greatness and what he has meant to the organization. But the simple truth is Mauer IS aging, his recognition, contact and power HAVE regressed. And there always seems to be an injury or two that slow him or keep him out for a period of time. Used appropriately as a part time player, I think a .260-ish BA and .360-.370 OB are still possible for the next two seasons. With quality defense, he is still a functional, useful player and quality PH when not starting a game. Personally, when he does start a game, I'd bat him around the 6th or 7th spot to provide some OB options ahead of Rosario and our catching platoon.

Even were Dozier traded tomorrow, to the Dodgers or anyone else, (and it could still happen), the guys brought in are/were not going to change the team'should situation overnight. Keeping BD, at least for now, still gives the team another high quality position player on the roster. This is not a bad thing. Maybe a missed opportunity to add talent in another area, but not a bad thing. To paraphrase a different article here on TD a couple weeks ago, it changes the questions on the roster and what to do, but doesn't necessarily create more questions. There are different ways to build a team and improve on weaknesses. Falvey and Levine have first hand knowledge of this from their time in their previous organizations. A Dozier trade is still a real possibility. The FA SP class next season could and should be better than this year. The Twins DO have some quality young arms here and close. Predicting true future success for most any prospect is very difficult. To just flatly believe/state that none of these guys won't turn out to be very good is short sighted. I'm not saying the Twins shouldn't look for as many good, young, upside arms as possible. But we shouldn't just dismiss what is coming up and their potential, just as JDL from the Dodgers shouldn't automatically be thought of as a future #1-2 starter. The Twins and their new FO still have an opportunity to improve the 2017 Twins without passing out huge questionable deals or blocking anyone. A quality RH 4th OF to increase roster depth and lineup flexability and a quality RP to deepen the bullpen are two obvious ways of doing so. A big bat? I'm not opposed to this idea, and the new FO has no significant investment in Park or Vargas, but giving these guys a real shot may make more sense at this point. And yet, both guys have options still.... The biggest area of concern still remains the rotation, and I won't pretend that it's not. But if you have a weak area on your team, don't you try to also overcome said weakness by improving other areas to help compensate? And this is where I'm anxious and interested to see what Falvey and Levine do for the NOW.

SS was an issue whether we traded Dozier or not. Still is. But at this point, I really think the team should stay pat and see what a healthy Escobar and young Polanco can do. Except for maybe an OF move...not sure I see a big bat signing...I think position wise they are set. I fully expect to see a RP signing shortly. Not sure I can see anything out there to sign in the way of starting Pitching unless the new FO thinks there is a flyer type worth bringing in. And I think Santana will stick around until mid-season now, with no Dozier trade. But how many times has a trade fallen through and the player in question appears to be remaining with their team only to then suddenly be traded when all the rumors died?

The only thing I would question is the comments about not hitting for a high average. Low .200's I think is the question. He has shown the ability to hit in the minors as well as make adjustments not only from level to level, but even after slow starts. He's got some pop and contact ability. While hitting ML breaking stuff is a different kind of animal all together, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him as anywhere from a .240-.260 hitter in time and with opportunity.

I believe I stated early on when the FO took charge that other than a potential Dozier deal, what would take place this year was more behind the scenes actions than on the field moves. I still believe this to be true and in action. And I'm OK with this. Despite being experienced baseball men who surely have at least some feel and knowledge of the players and personnel in the Twins system, their knowledge still came at a distance and through second hand knowledge. What they have to do, and I believe are doing even now, is exams said players and personnel from top to bottom, as well as implementing their own various tweaks, changes, and staffing upgrades and moves. Honestly, it would be pretty short sighted for them, or any new management team, to immediately come in and hand out pink slips. The entire organization has to be examined and a new structure of doing things put in place. Do I believe they have made an honest attempt to move Dozier and gain assets? Yes. It appears, for now, the return simply hasn't been there. We talk about the Twins past office never selling high on players. Just as egregious can be forcing your hand to sell low. I don't believe the book is closed on trading off Dozier now, or in the future. Nor do I believe they are done making moves to enhance the club. I would be very surprised if we don't see a few more moves or signings before ST starts. But clearly, this was the first major domino to fall...or not fall...before moving forward in whatever capacity they see fit. I will not judge them because in the first few months they began to install a culture and way of doing things and did not immediately blow up the franchise.

Garver*

If Park could hit .250 with 25 HR and 28-32 doubles it would be huge. But agree Vargas is talented enough and has shown enough he needs and deserves an extended opportunity. Is there room for both on the roster and Mauer? Yes, but it shorts the OF to just 4 guys. Man do I hope Graver gets a fair shot.

No big deal. They signed a couple AAA flyers to flesh out the rotation...maybe. Gonsalves, Mejia and Wheeler and then what else? You've still got to have 5 starters. Everyone takes flyers like this on guys for AAA. Once in a while you even get lucky and find someone useful. The odds are about as good they are released as actually making the Rochester roster. Nothing to be concerned about.

Based on potential and the overall athleticism we hear so much about, I find him to be one of the more excitjng and interesting prospects in the Twins lower levels. I know he's a few years away, but I have to wonder if he is the next in line for 3B, possibly allowing Sano to eventually move to 1B.

I think we all love playing amateur GM. I know I do! LOL The whole point of this is not what moves could the Twins make to be a contending team. That would take some serious lightening! And it's not just about working on the rebuild. It's also about this upcoming season, team needs, and what makes the Twins, overall, a better team to be more competitive and win more games. And that's not just about appeasing us fans or putting butts in the seats. It's about a rebuilding team also learning how to win. You don't want to simply sign mediocre veterans for a few games of improvement. And you don't want to just say, "this guy has talent and potential so we'll just promote him and see if he sinks or swims." There has to be a balance. Do the Twins have a legitimate need for a solid, quality 4th OF? Yes. Does signing one block Granite or Palka? No. Granite has no time above AA and Palka less than half a season. What's smarter, let them play every day for now at AAA or throw them to the ML wolves and spend most of their time on the bench? If Dozier is traded, do the Twins have a need for another solid, quality option in the infield? Yes. Is Gordon ready? No. Despite a great glove and a bit of hitting potential and speed, (remembering he did suffer through a few nagging injuries this past season), mean Vielma is ready to jump from AA? I don't see how. Does signing someone to a 1 or 2 year deal really affect Gordon's or Vielma's arrival or block them? No. Do the Twins have a closer option they can count on to deepen the bullpen and actually help close out and win games? No. Is winning games a good thing? Yes. Despite talent and real potential, are Burdi, Hildenberger, Reed and Melotakis really ready to jump from AA to the majors right now? The whole point is, simply, there are real options out there to actually fill holes, improve the team, get more wins, without really blocking anyone or getting hung up on big or long term contracts. And isn't what we all want a better, more competitive team with more wins?

I stated earlier that I felt, and still do, this is really only the Twins paying due diligence. If Dozier were traddd, however, it would make some sense. Bautista replaces his bat and can DH and solves the issue of a need for a 4th OF. Not dismissing Rosario at all! I still like an OF of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler with Bautista playing some as well as DH. Park/Vargas shares 1B with Mauer and also DH time. Rosario becomes the backup CF. Even still have room for Grossman's bat. I don't think this is going to happen, but it does make some sense. I love reading all the lineup options, it's long been a hobby of mine to speculate and write out various speculative lineups on paper or run them through my head. I know this is asking a lot, but ultimately, I'd really like to see a lineup that had some combination of Buxton and Polanco in the top 2 spots with Kepler hitting 3rd, which is where I think he will ultimately settle in. I get the idea of Mauer hitting 2nd, but hitting LH with a still decent OB, wouldn't he fit better somewhere around the 6 spot? Decent contact, OB and LH but not much power, he helps provide a baserunner for the bottomed third. Just a thought.

My guess, if the Twins are at all serious, he would be a replacement for Dozier if he is indeed traded.

Once again, I am not saying don't trade Dozier. And there is no way you can look at the Twins rotation for 2017 and not say it's got a ton of question marks involved. And in no way am I saying it will be a good rotation. But, assuming Dozier is kept as there just isn't a fair trade on the table, the rotation has one major question mark; Hughes. I'm at a loss that we haven't heard more about his offseason progress. Whether it be to open the season, or a month in, etc, a healthy Hughes shores up the potential of the unit quite a bit. Not saying he's a #1, but he often pitched like it in 2014. He was still pretty solid in 2015, though we seem to know now that some of his dip in ability may have been related to his developing injury. Hughes, Santana, an OK Santiago and a rebound by Gibson is not terrible. You still have the young May and Berrios to work with, and Mejia and Gonsalves at AAA that may be ready at some point. There are some "if's" there, to be sure, with Hughes being the biggest. Keeping or selling Dozier does nothing, unto itself, to address SS. Keeping him, however, does provide the team with a big bat and quality offense. The rotation could be addressed further down the line, mid-season via trades or call ups, etc, and next offseason. Not a perfect formula, but not sure there is such a thing as a perfect formula.

SS: This could still be solid with a healthy Escobar manning the position full time and reverting back to his 2014-15 form. There is no guarantee he will, but no reason to believe he can't or won't either. But you need SOMEONE to compete, at the very least, and fill the need for a backup position, again, at the very least. Did Drew sign with anyone yet? I confess to not paying enough attention to signings lately. He would be a perfect fit to challenge and rotate in at both 2B and SS with Escobar seeing some time at 3B as well. Akbar would also be an excellent choice. Late Inning Set Up: How about potential closer? The Storen deal almost makes me ill that it wasn't us. Feliz has been my first choice, however. And I'd gladly do a couple years for him. Once again, he could be a flip candidate, OR, still only 28 a longerror term option. Building a solid bullpen is a GOOD IDEA and helps the team actually win games and helps mitigate questions in the rotation...at least to some degree. Having someone...and there are indeed other options available still...to close games allows Chargois and Pressly to set up, at least initially. Duffey could fit a number of solid roles here if he doesn't step up as a SP option. And there are others. The entire bullpen gets deeper and stronger by bumping everyone down one notch. Left Handed Reliever: I agree this isn't a NEED spot as Rogers was solid, and should get better. Except for a couple appearances before getting hurt, Boshers was actually very effective and did a great job with SO. (I think some don't like him because of his pedigree from independent ball and the bad games, and not because of his solid results) O'Rourke has a shot if used properly. But I would still absolutely love the FO to find another Akbar, someone coming off injury, or a failed SP prospect to convert. Once again, we could be talking a flip candidate or longer term candidate depending on who and what age. Outfielder: Please! He doesn't even have to be a true CF option with Rosario able to play there. (Though it would be nice) Give me a quality RH bat to give Rosario and/or Kepler a day off against LH pitching and play solid defense. There IS a spot for Grossman here as a 5th OF who can DH PH and occassionally play the OF. Starting Pitching: Other than a move for Ross, or a cheap flyer I can't even think of right now, no more mediocre veteran signings. Assuming a Dozier deal takes place, run with what we have and see what develops. And infielder, potential closer and 4th OF. Get them now! They won't block anyone long term in any way and are a real need to help this team. And there ARE options out there. But please don't ignore the LHRP option.

I don't think keeping Dozier creates more questions, it just brings about different questions. In the long run, are the Twins probably better off trading Dozier for a nice pitching haul even though young prospects are still just that? Yes. Am i still in favor of trading him? Yes. But I have to confess that while I certainly don't see the Twins challenging for anything in 2017, I also dont believe the overall talent on the club is another 100 loss team. There are issues here, of course, and starting pitching is the biggest. But when I look at this team, and reflect on it WITH Dozier on board, there are thoughts that come to mind: 1} The young nucleus of talent that is Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and Polanco is intriguing to say the least. There is room for a lot of growth and development there, but also exciting young talent and potential. Dozier and Sano in the heart of a lineup with these guys could be fun. 2} Questions remain about the left side of the infield defense, but I actually feel pretty good about every other spot. I could see a sort of rotation of Polanco, Sano and Escobar on the left side, with time off for Dozier on occassion, with some fingers crossed. But could the left side be any worse than last season? Could it improve even a little bit with time and experience? 3} I hate playing the "what if" game...but...IF Hughes can prove healthy and ready to go at some point, with Santana and Santiago and a healthy and rebounding Gibson with May and Berrios, etc...well...it could be and has been worse yes? There is potential with May and Berrios and potential help on the way at both AAA and AA. 4} Could a smart addition to the back end of the bullpen deepen and improve said pen...again with help on the way...to help offset and bolster the rotation? No rose colored glasses here. I'm just saying, there is young talent to work with here, more on the way, and a couple solid veterans at least. And every time we make an argument for the value of Dozier in all of the trade threads, we have to remember that all the positives we speak of in regard to him would belong to us if he stays.

The longer this drags on, the closer we get to spring training, the more I play with possible lineups fir 2017, the more comfortable and happy I am to keep BD, add a quality bullpen arm, hopefully a 4th OF, and cross my fingers on Hughes, bounce back from Gibson and development from Berrios and May.

Man, I read this...not even including 2016...and it makes me hate trading him all the more, even if it's that should probably be done for the sake if the franchise. ANY player has regression potential, of course. And almost all players have streaks. But to look at these numbers, then factor in 2016, then realize he will only be 29 when the season starts...boy...sure seems to me that this a very, very good player that I dare call great. The majority of 3 pitcher trades listed on these pages sure seem fair to me.

Question...and forget the contract talk involved...Hughes was a tremendous pickup in 2014 and still OK in 2015. Do we really know how his injury that wiped out '16 could have affected him in '15? Regardless, were Hughes coming off a minor injury, combined with Santana, bounce back from Gibson, Santiago on board along with May and Berrios, are we even having the trade Dozier discussion? Or does the context of the trade change greatly?

Still so young, I wonder with his success last season could still bump him to FTM to begin the 2017 season or if they will hold him back to begin the year? It sure seems he proved everything he could at CR. How cool would it be to have Wells and a healthy Thorpe both having quality seasons this upcoming year?

Dozier checks every box the Dodgers need: inexpensive, quality glove, RH power and OPS with some speed. He makes their team better where they are not, and increases their chances of winning. Even if it's 2 games, it could mean the difference of the division, home field, or a game 7. And the Dodgers have a deep enough system...and pockets...to part with a handful of quality prospects. You don't add quality by trading little in return. And the Twins take on the "gamble" of said prospects turning out to be quality players for them. JDL, Alvarez and one of the often mentioned "prospect" arms, be it Stewart or otherwise, is a very fair 3 for 1 IMO. Both teams get what they want and need, nobody gets taken.

What I had forgotten, or hadn't quite hit home, was the number if SO per IP. There is no question the pen, like far too many seasons of late, was over used due to necessity. But at the same time, using pitchers used to primarily 1 IP (Tonkin) or as a LOOGY (O'Rourke) and then turning them in to a long reliever and someone who primarily faces RH pitching shows a complete lack of grasp on how to handle a pen, IMO. I DO like some pieces here.But how much better do all the listed names look if you had a Storen or Feliz at the end of the pen and everyone on this list sort of "bumps down" a notch, at least initially.