DocBauer

Honestly, at Rochester, I think Gordon is the only prospect in the infield, so Aybar there to begin the season wouldn't be bad. But really, he's only here for depth due to injury or suspension and shouldn't last long.

That works for me. No reason to believe Santana won't be back healthy. Berrios should continue to improve. Lynn should be stronger this year a full season removed from surgery. Peripherals and past history suggest Odorizzi is better than last season. Call me an optomist, but that's a better rotation than we began last season with for sure.

I also hope Sano stays at 3B for the next several years and wouldn't be in a hurry to move him. Still, it would seem Polanco, Gordon, Lewis and Javier could form a hell of an infield in the future.

Completely on board with 1 year, 1 year with option or 3 year deal. (Like each idea for different, unimportant reasons). I would guess the 1 year with an option is the least likely, but this makes too much sense not to peruse. I prefer Lynn over Cobb and detailed why in another thread, so will skip all of that. I fully expect Santana to be back 100%. But what if his rehab and build up takes longer than hoped? Not sure I buy this, and forgive me for my buy-in optimism, but what if Gibson's second half was luck/illusion? Sanchez could be a great story, but really, this a flier signing. Hughes is getting paid for the next 2 season's and would be an even better story, but is an internal flier. The kids just aren't ready yet, as impatient as we all are for them to be, with the exception of Slegers who just might be a decent back end starter. This is not to be a downer or pooh-pooh the season before it begins! It's simply reality that there is room to add another high quality arm. Isn't the point to have the best over all team...offensivly, defensively and pitching...that you can? What is the absolute worst possible outcome? Santana comes back strong, Berrios keeps developing, you've added 2 quality ML arms via trade and FA, and you have Mejia, Gibson, Hughes and Sanchez fighting for the last spot or two in the rotation with the kids, (though Slegers could compete as well), gaining experience and providing experience at Rochester. And May could also make a difference at some point. So maybe you end up with someone like Gibson you could move in a deal for a helpful piece or a decent prospect? This makes way too much sense not to persue!

Hard to believe, in high school, as the team's best player he wasn't placed at SS until his senior year. Just have a hell of another kid playing there previously. The athleticism and work ethic seem to be there. Sure hope they give him time to really learn the position and not rush him just because of his bat. Seems that most ML infielders continue to sharpen and home their skills once they reach The Show. He could end up being more of a work in process when he arrives.

Oh gee, if only he's healthy. But then again, that refrain is almost all ballplayers, in any sport, in any given year, isn't it? At least some degree. And no other previous injury or lingering issue that I'm immediately aware of. A change of scenery for a solid, experienced, and fairly young arm. A new pitching coach. A FO that embraces new age analytics who brought over an expert in such who is familiar with Ordozzi. I don't know if we end up with hard boiled, scrambled or over easy. But I see a lot of potential here as a quality #3.

I absolutely agree turning out to be a top bullpen arm is nothing to sneeze at! But what just kills me at times is how little faith some have in him as a still developing SP option and want to see him move to the pen now or hope he can do that late in 2018. I get that he could help the club initially in that role. Others have before. And some want to look at IP the last couple of seasons and a late fade to proclaim him as a pen option. He's only 23yo until late December 2018. He missed 2 FULL SEASONS due to injury and can sling it like he does! Developmentally, on the mound, he's a 21yo. We all hate the word "patience". In our daily lives, and also in regard to the Twins finding top rotation arms. But to be down on a 23yo still building up full season endurance and harnessing his change with the kind of dominance he's shown when healthy is just crazy. Let him continue to develop, start the season at Chattanooga maybe and promote him after a month or so. Let's just say he doesn't debut until 2019. You'd think a then 24yo with his arm arriving at some point that season would be slow or bad? Love the potential of this kid!

Nice write up! Odorizzi had the lowest batting AVG against in his career, but saw a dip in most all other numbers. Unless there is something we're not seeing, I'd say we bought low after a down year and would put faith in the season's proceeding. Additionally, only 27, soon 28, there is upside here as he continues to gain experience and learn his craft. I am NOT saying we found a sleeper #1 here, but a great majority of SP hit their peak in the late 20's through early 30's. They still have their "stuff" but learn more how to use it through experience. I think it's pretty safe to assume Berrios, with his "stuff", work ethic, bulldog mentality, will continue to get better. One has to hope and assume Santana will be back in May and be at least close to the pitcher he was in 2017. Why? Because despite this setback, he's had some of the best numbers of his career with the Twins, has been mostly durable in his career, and doesn't seem to have any kind of injury that would indicate his arm is ready to just fall off. Lastly, I forget the numbers right now so forgive me, but haven't recent articles here and elsewhere stated the Twins had guys like Turley, Tepesch, Melville, Wilk, Hughes and Santago start like 25% of games played? Now Colon was in there too, and really, he was solid and a godsend. You could argue Hughes gutted out a couple decent early season starts. But as much as we lament the lack of Darvish, a healthy Santana, improved Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson (hopefully the same guy we saw for half a season), an improved Mejia, a return of a quality arm in May, prospects on the rise, and a flier or two in Hughes and Sanchez, we still look better and deeper in available arms and "possibilities" than we did this time a year ago. Toss in an improved bullpen with several young arms who showed last year and are chomping at the bit to audition again, the overall talent and depth is better than the beginning of 2017.

I am an eternal optimist by nature. Usually works out, but also been burned a few times. (Still rather be that than a pessimist). A couple things really fill me with hope for Gibson going forward though: 1] He changed everything from his training regime to tweaks in his delivery and preparation to some of his mechanics. That has to take some time to see results. (His second half). 2] He was bounced to the minors a couple times. He was "politely" chastised, publicly, on the mound in a game against Seattle where he was spotted a big lead. He seemed to come back up, and spoke about, a different attitude. 3] His second half numbers, as talked about here, might be a half season, but I'm not sure they can be called SSS considering past flashes and the other points made here. I'm actually really excited, with some guarded optimism, to what and who he is this season.

I love his worth ethic and the fact that he's shown steady improvement, had that great ALF, and has shown real flashes. All of that, plus his age and steady advancement, I'm willing to chalk up his bad 2nd half last year to wearing down, pitchers making adjustments, etc. I think he profiles as a nice #2 hitter who just does everything well, without a single category where he just dominates. Of course, there still has to be improvement against LHP.

Overall, last 4 years, solid ERA in the AL and the AL East. Solid AVG, WHIP and SO and BB numbers. Nothing special, but solid all the way around. AVG in 2017 was career best. Still only 27. Still entering his prime years with a quality young team. A solid addition. Does he have more in him at 27?d That's the key. I can't remember the last time I saw a proven, at least decent, ML SP traded for a single prospect, much less one in A ball. Now I think Polacios has talent and a future. Despite not liking the drafting of Gordon so highly, I have become a fan and believer. I think he's going to be a nice ballplayer, maybe even a really good one. But I have said before, if I wasn't looking for almost immediate help, I'd really like one of the younger SS in the system. But still never figured it would be a 1 to 1 trade. Unless Palacios turns out to be an absolute ML stud, this is at worst an even trade. And at 27, a new team, change of scenery, new coaching ideas, maturity, this smells sweetly of a potential steal.

What really stinks is we just don't know what the thoughts and the plans are by the new FO. I hate that, but get it. Even as intelligent and fanatic of supporters as we are, they don't "owe" us an explanation as to what they see or are doing. I don't like it any more than the rest us, but there is a part of me that agrees with your statement and wonders if they aren't looking at a "big picture" for 2018 and beyond where they are looking at continued development from the existing roster, and really like some of the pitching talent on hand, and are just waiting for time/opportunity for some "show me" performances to feel the roster has arrived. Not painting rainbows and sunshine for a "meh" move that means little at this point, (And nobody has said this is the ONLY move they are going to make, it's only a singular move). I just wonder about their ideas of an end game here.

Serious question. There is NO WAY ANYONE, ANYWHERE who could see this as a major signing in any way, shape or form. It is the definition of a flier. But with the FO being so much more forward thinking in regards to analytics and the such, is there anything we could be missing here? Has there been an injury problem I'm not aware of? A mechanical issue not seen? Are there numbers in Detroit that suggest he'd be much better with a change of scenery? Has he been playing winter ball and suddenly looking different? Not being snarky, I'm honestly asking if we're missing something the FO might be looking at for this flier vs some other flier options that have been out there for an "extra" option that Sanchez appears to have been signed for.

I still believe the "big move" is going to take place soon, within a week, for a trade or FA. I'm still banking on FA. This does nothing for me. But I also felt/predicted they'd sign another FA on the cheap on a 1 year or flier for insurance and depth for the first couple of months. The money isn't even spent unless he makes the roster. And who knows, maybe we get lucky. But really guys, this is just another arm with experience to fill in due to injury, both Santana's and any others that pop up during the spring. Now....if they DON'T make another move....then I GOT NOTHING.

Mauer's defense! Darn phone!

Love Maker's defense. The overall improvement offensively speaks to me, considering his past numbers, as a return to better health further removed from his concussions vs a sudden abberation near the end of his career. He does still need to show himself again this season. I have no problem with 2 years at $8-10M. I can understand a bump there due to service time, etc. The Twins could make it happen, AND re-sign Dozier and still cut payroll between the two of them. (Which I've previously stated)

While very different pitchers, I always liked Berrios and Gonsalves both for their demeanor and reported work ethics. They both have that bulldog in them, and both seem to really grasp the idea of pitching, not just throwing. Both of them, at various stops, hit bumps before learning to make adjustments and then take off at that level. Just how good Gonsalves will be is yet to be determined. And I'm sure there will some growing pains, lime with most young pitchers. But I am a believer.

100%! Sign Lynn to a fair deal. Then sign someone like Tillman, maybe Vargas, on a 1 year. You build a deeper, better rotation without huge numbers, parting with any prospects, and you even buy time for your prospects. The downside? A healthy Santana, May back, Gibson showing his second half wasn't an illusion, Mejia keeps getting better and builds on his rookie campaign and you have some nice, young pitchers at AAA getting close and you suddenly have too much pitching? Oh the horror!

Nick, love your writing and this is one of your best posts lately. Why? Simply because you touch on both sides of the matter, shall we say, "fairly"? But I am going to agree on Cap's side here. I don't feel a great deal of discontent. Disappointment in some ways thus far, but not discontent. I don't live in the Twin Cities, so my knowledge of the culture is limited. But for various reasons, from what little I think I know, I just never saw Ohtani as a viable option. I did feel Darvish was a real possibility, and I'm mixed as to disappointed and angry we didn't land him. No excuses, but I'm still not certain we understand the full impact and details of contacts offered or how much true interest he had coming to us. And while there are no moral victories in sports, at least at the pro level, the fact we were in on Darvish at all is a HUGE change vs the previous administration. The bullpen has had, IMO, a very nice upgrade with no compromise contractually. There are nice arms as holdovers, and some really nice ones on the way. Knowing they were out of the Ohtani sweepstakes, they traded "nothing", (meaning no prospects, just Monopoly money to acquire a couple of interesting prospects. There was something I read today, forget the site, that mentioned the Twins were still looking at various extensions. I think that is very important. Further, with a largely young and still improving roster, I don't want the FO to be knee jerk. And Santana should be OK, you'd think, before the season gets too far along. Now, I WILL reach the level of discontent if the next week or so doesn't bring in a viable, quality SP. It was already a need before the Santana surgery. We lost out on Darvish, but there are still some strong FA options available in a depressed marketplace. If we don't see a move there, I will be downright PO'd and move beyond disappointment.

Loaded! Been planning a trip for the past 2 years but couldn't make it. My dad went last year by himself. Come he'll or high water we'll be there at some point this summer. With luck, will get to meet a few of the TD family!

I also have reservations ranking him this high simply due to missing a year and shaking off rust after one half season of pro ball, despite his production there and draft status. But I get it, we're talking about potential and prospects. Also hard to drop them from something out of their control. I have to say, there have been various comments about certain player rankings when they are so young, so raw, and at lower levels. All prospects are just that. There are no guarantees, and we should all know that and remember that. But I am so excited for the amount of this raw talent at A+ and lower. I feel OK we're a little short at the high level, except for pitching, because we've graduated so much talent the past couple of years, position wise. One honest concern I have...and the 2018 season may just take care of this once complete...is Just how much young talent may have to be protected on the 40 man next off season.

I focused this thread on Arrieta and Lynn for stated reasons. To be fair, I guess I should have included Cobb's numbers as well. He did not pitch in 2015 due to surgery and only 5GS for 22IP in 2016 so these are his last 4 full seasons: SEASON ERA IP AVG WHIP BB/SO BB/9 SO/9 2012 4.03 136.1 .254 1.25 40/106 2.64 7.00 2013 2.76 143.1 .228 1.15 45/134 2.83 8.41 2014 2.87 166.1 .231 1.14 47/149 2.54 8.06 2017 3.66 179.1 .254 1.22 44/128 2.21 6.42 Not horrible numbers. I wouldn't hate getting him. Interesting that 2017 was his career high in GS and IP. Still, when comparing overall, I just see better options in Arrieta or Lynn, as per the context of the article itself.

I'm tired of talking about and reading about Darvish. Aren't you? And we're not going to talk about him except to make the singular point that is a really nice pitcher and the best pitcher available in the market this year. But he's gone. He's a Cub. We will probably never know the full contract term offered by the Twins, and there is no way Darvish or his reps will ever reveal how serious they considered the Twins regardless. And it's a moot point now gang. The Twins need a starting pitcher of quality. I'm not saying #1 or ACE because they don't grow on trees and aren't usually available except in certain circumstances. The FO recently made a statement in regard to making a trade for a high quality SP option and commented about weakening a spot on your team to make such a trade not being very appealing. Having read the entire context of the article featuring those comments, it was NEVER stated the Twins would not make such a trade. Rather, it was a rather general comment about how slow the FA market is, that the trade market is even slower, and then the comment was made concerning the idea of trading players of your own. There was no refusal to do so, and the comment didn't even appear to be Twins specific, only a general comment. Now, the Twins system is deep and in good shape. In fact, it could be argued they may have too many good young players to protect and add to the 40 man next season. Especially considering the overall youth of the parent club. And if the trade market is truly moving even slower than the FA market, and we're witnessing depressed value in said FA market, then doesn't it make the most sense to forfeit a 3rd pick in the upcoming draft, keep the roster and system intact, for NOW at least, and STILL improve the rotation? I sat down and just looked a little harder and longer at the available options. We all know the names: Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. From my point of view, I have immediately eliminated Cobb. No disrespect to him, but he's the same age as Lynn, has never started more than 29 games, 2017, and his previous high was 27, and never pitched more than 179.1 innings, also in 2017. While his 2017 is notable, to be sure, it almost appears 2017 was a possible aberration. (Speculation to be sure). Let's look at Arrieta and Lynn the past 4 season's using some base numbers: (Lynn missed all of 2016 to surgery) Arrieta: SEASON ERA IP AVG WHIP BB/SO BB/9 SO/9 2014 2.53 156.2 .203 .99 41/167 2.36 9.59 2015 1.77 229 .185 .86 48/236 1.89 9.28 2016 3.10 197.1 .194 1.08 76/190 3.47 8.67 2017 3.53 168.1 .235 1.22 55/163 2.94 8.71 Lynn: SEASON ERA IP AVG WHIP BB/SO BB/9 SO/9 2013 3.97 201.2 .252 1.31 76/198 3.39 8.84 2014 2.74 203.2 .238 1.26 72/181 3.18 8.00 2015 3.03 175.1 .258 1.37 68/167 3.49 8.57 2017 3.43 186.1 .223 1.23 78/153 3.77 7.39 Going to be honest, I had to look at Arrieta's numbers a couple times to make sure they were right. Despite a seemingly mediocre 2017, his numbers actually look pretty nice. His ERA was certainly up, (And I get and fully appreciate the ERA quandry/debate), along with a rather substantial rise in opponents BA, (But still a very good .235), but his BB and SO were slightly better in 2017 vs 2016. Is he really toast? Lynn's numbers certainly can't match Arrieta, overall, the past 4 full season's played. But they are good numbers. Twice He has exceeded 200IP, and had 186 in his first season back from surgery. I will not be flippant about TJ surgery, but recent history has shown many pitchers performing even better their second season back, with better control/feel, and sometimes increased velocity post surgery. Both Arrieta and Lynn have post season experience, Lynn more-so. Lynn is a year younger, though neither are ancient by any stretch. In fact, they are the same age, or a year younger than the aforementioned Darvish. I will not dismiss either FA option, however, IMO, considering age, previous production, experience, post-surgery bump in expectation, I feel Lynn is the guy the Twins should be targeting. Unless the remaining FA crop decides to bite on 1 year deals to "prove themselves", I feel Lynn should be available on a 3 year deal, possibly 4, at somewhere between $14-17 per. Is he a #1? Nope. Is he Darvish? Nope. But he is affordable. He is quality. With Berrios improving and a healthy Santana, that is still a pretty solid 1-3 with quality defense, offense and improved bullpen for support. If you're a Cobb fan, I get it. (Especially with AL experience). If you're an Arrieta, bounce back candidate fan, I get it. I just feel Lynn is the right choice here. What do you all think?

Personally, I'd rather include Lewis in a deal over Kepler. Not only because I believe in Kepler, but losing him weakens this team that is just coming in to it's own. Lewis is a few years away, and no matter how talented, there are quality SS in the system. I'd like to sign a FA, especially now that the market seems to be deflated from expectation. Lynn or Cobb DOES deepen the rotation and help the team still. The pen is better and the lineup should continue to improve. On the other hand.... Without doing at least a small purge of the roster, how do we keep all our prospects on the 40 man next year? Just saying, if we improve by trade, try to keep the ML roster intact.

Absolutely no question in my mind there will be a signing of one of the remaining FA or a trade for the rotation. After all, it was a concern before the Santana surgery, and it sure hasn't gone away. In fact, I expect a signing or trade soon, plus a flier on one of the lower tier FA on a 1 year deal for depth and insurance on Santana. Rotation: (Not in any order) TBD Berrios Gibson Mejia 1 year FA with look sees from milb talent and Duffy. Hughes a huge dark horse, a seat being kept warm for Santana, of course. Bullpen: Rodney Reed Duke Rogers Hildenberger Pressly Duffey, if not in the rotation Busentiz, outside looking in depending on Duffey. He just needs to flash a bit more. If he does, Duffey could be out. Moya, Jay, Curtiss, Reed and Chargois just waiting for their chance at Rochester. (Not including SP working their way in as relievers) The most interesting thing to me is the lack of seeming aggressiveness in regard to catcher. I really thought the Twins would re-sign Giminez on a milb contract. Really, Wilson is the ONLY roster move they made. Very surprised by this. Tells me the coaching staff and FO actually like and believe in Garver here, and that his limited time behind the plate to close the year was due to experience and status quo for the playoff run.