DocBauer

The season is still very young. I don't want to get too wrapped up in early optimism, but something has to be said about the lineup and production thus far, especially considering the generally pessimistic nature I think most of us felt at the close of ST. There was a lot of gnashing of teeth, despite the "they can't be any worse therefore they must be at least somewhat better" mantra. There are flaws and concerns still to be sure. (Not here to necessarily rehash the SS argument at length again) But let's take a moment to offer up props where due. What impresses me most is that a year after setting records for strikeouts, our Twins are suddenly amongst the leaders in OB%, something I never dared dream. Kubel has gone from a small investment/good flyer to washed up to performing well not only at the plate, but reminding us that despite somewhat limited range, he is and always has been an OK OF defensively. The jury is still very much out on Willingham. But even he looked pretty good the first few games after looking like overdone toast in ST. What more can be said about Colabello? He's not just a good story any longer, he's become a great story. I've been converted from a hopeful fan of his to an actual believer. At his age he's just not going to be a long tenured major leaguer. But he's gone from a small independent signing news blurb to someone who raked at AA. And still he was doubted. He raked upon his promotion to AAA and was again doubted when he finished in the majors last season. (Again, not the first or last ball player to ill fit initially). The Twins tried to do him a favor and ship him over seas and he refused, intent on fulfilling his dream. He's made adjustments, had a great ST, and has become, at least, an early season stalwart to the lineup. I'm just not going to bet against him any longer. Despite a couple errors, Plouffe looks much more comfortable at 3B. And while I very much doubt he will continue to hit .300 with a .400 OB, he really looks like a completely different hitter. Has the light finally come on? Dozier is proving he is for real. OB over a 100 points higher than early season Avg. Wait until a few more balls find holes. Same with Hicks. Nothing spectacular yet, but he just looks so much more relaxed and competent than last season. Like Dozier, an OB over a 100 points higher than his Avg. So far, Suzuki looks like the hitter he used to be. Pinto is showing really good signs. Mauer is Mauer and is just begining to hit like Mauer. Can't wait to get Arcia back, and probably Hammer as well, though he should be primarily a DH. A couple questions and concerns. I still believe Mauer is best in the #3 hole. When do we consider Hicks for the 2 hole between Dozier and Mauer, with his patience and Mauer behind him? And long term, who is our #4 hitter? Even if Hammer comes back strong, he's not a long term answer by any means. Despite the angst for a long term solution at SS, I think that one bat to hit 4th is a concern to be addressed soon. But a tip of my cap to Bruno, the staff, and especially the players thus far.

We have all dreamed, hypothesized, and written out the lineup, rotation and bullpen on napkins for the past 6 months. We've all scratched out, thought about it, and scribed again. The final 25 to begin the season is nearly complete. The only drama to begin the season is the final 12 th and 13th spots of the player roster. And IF you assume Barlett is gone and Presley is in, there is only one spot open to see. This year more than others, a transition year as some youngsters get their first promotion, eventually, and the team doing its best to avoid another 90 loss season, with dreams of being competitive, and keeping fan interest, we are all well aware of the fact that the team that begins the season will NOT be the team that finishes the season. It might not even be the same team that reaches the all star break. (Probably wont be) The Twins had, arguably, one of the better bullpens in baseball last season, or at least in the AL, and it will begin pretty much as it ended. They have taken aggressive and even somewhat surprising moves to shore up the rotation. And there are at least a handful of position players, at least to begin the season, that are seemingly a given. You get to play GM here. Ryan isn't full strength, and with all due respect to Antony, there exists the opportunity for someone to step forward to make a move or two now, or early season, to fill a hole or two to make our Twins a better club. The only requirement is you be realistic. The Dodgers aren't going to trade Kershaw for Diamond and Bernier plus an A pitcher. What say you at this point and near future to fill a hole or two to make our club more competitive? I have my own options, but will hold out offering them for now. (Spoiler: LF and DH)

This shows his flexibility as a player, not only for now, but potentially with the Twins in a few years, especially if the OF prospects in the system continue to prove themselves. But he is undobtedly a quality OF prospect in his own right and will continue to play there mostly for the next few seasons. We have yet to see the best of him. Hopefully that begins this year.

Pitchers and catchers report! There are very few sweeter words in the English language. Time to roll out your Major League, Bull Durham and Field of Dreams DVD's (possibly For Love of the Game). Don't tell me I'm the only one! I have no illusions of a World Series appearance for the TC boys this year. I think it's clear we are a year or two away. And while arguments could be made the Twins haven't done enough to address all of their short comings this offseason, there is also no doubt the Twins have invested more FA money than any time in their history to improve a pretty pathetic pitching staff. I don't think there is any doubt Nolasco, Hughes, a year removed from TJ surgery Pelfrey, Correia and whoever is short of a contending staff, but still filled with more potential and intrigue than anything we've run out to the mound ever 5th day for a few years now. And while there are no guarantees, there is definitely some potential there, with some great young arms to supplement and replace on the near horizon. And perhaps I or someone else will start a post regarding such. But for now, this post is strictly about the lineup and offense for the 2014 Twins. There is a generalization of optimism that comes with spring training. For a time at least, everyone is improved, and everyone is a contender. Being a realist...we are probably not. Again, a year or two away. And honestly, the Twins have done very, very little to address the lineup for 2014. Almost depressingly nothing. (And this from someone who would rival Seth in the area of optimism) There could yet be a move, even a small one, that will provide at least some sense of depth and option with the lineup. But as of yet, nothing of value. Understand, I am in NO WAY advocating, or admonishing the Twins for failing to act/sign, the likes of Cano or Ellsbury. Would you really spend that kind of money and years on 30 y.o. players with Dozier, Arcia, Rosario, Sano, Buxton, etc, already contributing or nearly ready to? But where does that leave us lineup/offensively for 2014? Honestly, just being healthy would provide a better and more productive lineup than 2013. But where do we go from here? I've been a Brian Dozier supporter/fan for some time now. And after a slow and disappointing start to last season, he really kicked things in to gear. Yes, his AVG and OB could have been better, but his milb numbers showed a slash of .298/.370, indicating he should show improvement in each of these areas in 2014, even if his power numbers slide somewhat. And what's really interesting is that until the 2012 debacle, Dozier had ONLY spent 2 1/2 years in the minors, and showed general improvement each season. Joe Mauer. Do I really have to say more? If he doesn't win a gold glove the next few years at 1B it will be a huge surprise. He is the man with a career split of .323/.405/873 OPS. What will he do with a season of 150 games? A healthy Willingham at DH, Molitor helping him in the transition, occasionally LF, has career averages of .256/.359/.830 OPS with averages of 28Dbls and 25 HR's. Being a near rookie, it's hard to place numbers on Arcia, but I have to believe every number has to improve in his second season. I'd expect 30 doubles and 20 plus HR's roughly in 500 AB's. Plouffe may never perform the way we wish he would. But rough calculations have him hitting .242/.305 with 25Dbls and 19 H's n 500 AB's. If he actually got 500 AB's at this point I'd hope for a bit more. Hicks in CF hitting only in the .240 range with an OB above .300 with 30 doubles, double digit HR's and pushing 20+ SB's with excellent defense is still a big help with the potential for more. Pinto, forgetting what he did in MLB last season, only taking his last 2 seasons of milb stats and reducing 20% to allow for a full season of rookie regression would still provide .243/.306 with 27Dbls and 13+HR's in 500 AB's. Shortstop, Florimon, Escobar or Bartlett is certainly open to debate. There is nothing earth shattering here, but still some optimism. The biggest problem I see is lead off. Can Presley, even for one season, provide something acceptable? I don't know that Mastro or Hicks can provide the answer. Was hoping for a nice role player who could help/platoon. But to this point, that player/person has not been signed/identified. What say you about the lineup for 2014 at this point?

Thank you for this elaborate breakdown. I'm a bit old fashioned in that I'm still not up on all the advanced metrics. However, just looking at his career peripheral numbers, I've felt he was a quality performer who perhaps underachieved, or at least didn't get the results you might expect. Also felt that some of that might have simply been playing on poor teams in the past.

Loveitloveitloveit! I believe Berrios has excellence written all over him. All reports are of a good natured kid, excellent athlete and tireless worker with some potentially excellent stuff. I don't buy the argument about him not being 6' plus and 220 or more. Not every successful pitcher comes n a tailored size. And some of the bigger guys don't throw as hard as you would think their size demands. Now, despite work ethic and athleticism, I suppose it's possible he might lack the endurance to be a consistent 200+ plus IP guy every season, but look at Pedro Hernandez as an example. And a bit of a late fade last year is common for someone so young in the lower minors maturing and building himself up. I am also very high on Gonsalves, who conversely does have a more ideal build. If it wasn't for the reported incident where he tried to cover an indiscretion of some teammates, he would have gone sooner. If his still good last season had been even a bit more successful, he would have gone higher. And we're not even having this discussion because someone else would have taken him. The young man is highly projectile, has good natural stuff, and hats off to the Twins scouts for doing their homework.

Totally agree! Just feel there are more important areas to improve overall. Such as the potential Gaza signing. Again, don't get me wrong, a signing of Drew isn't a bad thing at all. My concerns are years and dollars vs other options.

JP, you have given a thoughtful and fact filled analysis that is very compelling. And if the Twins DID sign Drew tomorrow I would do at least one cartwheel for overall improvement/investment in the club overall and I wouldn't object or pout in any way. But while your post was filled with positive reasons for signing, I am going to offer an opposite opinion despite what I just stated. My biggest objection resides in your positives. Precisely, comments such as "for a shortstop" which you state often in your argument. Now don't misunderstand, I not only understand the context, but also understand the goal of putting the best and deepest 9 on the field. But at the end of the day, despite some aberrations in the late 80's and some of the 90's, (steroid era?) SS has been, and always has been, a defense first position. A strong offensive SS is a blessing for a team, and MLB has seen a revolution at the position in regards to outstanding athletes playing the position who can contribute both offensively and defensively over the past 10-20 years, steroid or not. It's a natural progression of athleticism the same way football has seen more mobile QB's and the NBA has seen more athletic and offensive PG's. But SS is still a defensive position. And there has been a bit of a "correction to the norm" if you will the past few years. This leads us back to the "for a shortstop" argument. Despite cuts and new media money, sooner or later the Twins hit an investment wall. And if they invest wisely, do as rumored, I'd much rather see an investment in Garza as a #2 pitcher who sometimes qualifies as a #1 with a possible trade of Correia. Another solid bench player or two like Baker and someone else, and this is a better overall club top to bottom than signing someone who gives solid defense and offense "for a shortstop". Floriman and Escobar, can handle the position very well defensively, with some offensive versatility, and room for improvement. Santana may yet prove to be an even better as well as younger and cheaper alternative with the, possibly even better and more talented, Polanco and Goodrum just behind. Not objecting to Drew. Just think we can spend better, go with what we have and wait for the future, spend our money better, rather than on "for a shortstop" improvement.

I would add Meyer to the list. If the right deal is there, I'd say anyone else has to be made available. However, I am also on record stating that unless there is the right fit, especially a quality, front line caliber SP that we can have control of, or sign long-term, I am actually against any trades involving top talent at this time. I'd mch rather hold to the depth of young talent we have, focus on what we have at the ML level, work the FA market as we have been doing to supplement, and see what tomorrow brings. I believe any tradeable assets will only increase in value, and let us make a move or two during the season, or next off-season.

Not going to lie, I've thought about Reynolds the past couple of seasons as a solid bat off the bench and with some real power. As well as a little versatility. But especially now, I'm going to vote no. And let me explain why. Plouffe has teased, shown real flashes, but hasn't hit a really consistent stride yet. Maybe he never will, but even if he never rounds in to the player we'd all like him to be, he still offers real value when Sano takes hold of 3B. Plouffe could still provide a good RH bat with power as a DH and back-up corner INF and OF, possibly even providing spot duty at 2B. A poorer man's version of Cuddyer at least? He is younger than Reynolds, has not only more positional flexibility, but, despite the flack of criticism he has taken, is not really that bad of a glove man. Better than Reynolds I'd say. I am really intrigued and in favor of Betemit, Chavez or Chad Tracy as a veteran alternative who can DH, PH, and back-up Mauer at 1B while also providing some platoon options at 3B. (I have stated all this before in other threads) These 3 provide a LH bat to counter Plouffe from the right side. Further, even when Sano takes control of 3B permanently, any of these still provide a legit option off the bench from the left side as valuable vets. I figure $2-3M should do it for any of the three, and we certainly have the financial flexibility for that.

I don't know much about him at all, but will make the assumption as to good defense that you allude to. His numbers in the minors show power and speed along with decent average and on base as well. I like the switch hitting, and agree he might be a bloomer with a change of scenery. But if the Nats are losing interest, ok. But if not, and with the Lombo trade, I have to wonder what he might cost. Dozier and Florimon in place, Escobar younger than Espinosa, and coming off some good AAA numbers and reports he's doing well in winter ball, plus Beresford as a possible UTILIF that has had me intrigued for some time, I guess it comes down to cost to acquire, what the Twins really think about Escobar, as well as Santana's future. Santana could potentially be close. And what if Escobar is finally ready to, if not exactly explode, but become at least a valuable and versatile backup/platoon option?

Referencing Butera was in regard to quality defense. Note, I said a better bat than Butera, not that would be hard. A solid defensive catcher who could make contact, draw walks and jack some doubles and a few home runs would be wonderful. And perhaps Fryer will indeed be a late bloomer. My reservations are as John stated, the number of at bats at AAA without improvement, so far, brings doubt.

Agreed, valid points. However, we are talking about a very real exception. If lightning strikes again, wonderful. But there is usually a reason someone has not had their shot to this point. I have no problem with signing Fryer to lock him up for depth and help at AAA to help the pitchers there. Though I do have trouble with his taking up a place on the 40 man. BUT, a later developing Butera with a better bat wouldn't be a bad thing. I still think we're talking about a solid AAA player and injury call-up.

On a side note, my choice a break-out candidate is Hicks. He is so gifted, and last season's rush and failure, along with the tremendous and worthwhile excitement over Buxton, has tempered people's opinions, probably far too much. Since he was drafted, it was known he was raw and would take some time. He has often been compared to Tori Hunter, and probably rightfully so. And like Hunter, he has shown slow but steady progress, always adjusting and growing at each level. I believe he was simply rushed last season. And less we forget, he was showing signs of actually improving before his injury last year. With his excellent defense, he could learn on the job, hit .230-.250, still provide 20 SB's, possibly 20 HR's and 30 plus doubles with a smattering of triples and still be a real asset.

I think everyone forgets how young he is. Probably because the Sox pulled him up too soon and his stats were not very good. Not surprising considering his age and lack of consistent every day playing time. All reports we've heard are good glove and athletic with a little speed. If he could supplant Floriman, who I LOVE for his glove, and people undervalue due to the Twins general lack of overall offense lately, I think we'd be better overall. At worse, I think he could platoon at SS against LHP and be a great sub at several positions.

ALMOST agree entirely. There are several FA SP that I like us to sign. No need to rehash the entire list or preferences. And ABSOLUTELY true improvement has to take place from within, as well as smart and timely trades. but a couple quality additions, and I still advocate a 3rd flyer on someone like Johan or Colby Lewis as an example, is a great idea. (Think Kazmir who I thought the Twins should have signed last off season) But where I disagree is that ANY half-way smart signings vastly improves the team. It's not always about aces and all-stars. It's about being competitive and having a solid chance to win daily, not just every fifth day. And one more point, with few exceptions, very few rookies set the world on fire upon first arrival. We get lost in baseball, or any sport for that matter, on "the next big thing". With time to adjust, experience and learn, most talented youngsters improve after poor or less than hoped for expectations. How much better might the likes of Gibson, Arcia, Hicks, even Floriman and possibly others like Plouffe be this year?