It certainly isn't luck based, not entirely. I think people confuse predictability and variance with luck a lot.......but there is some luck even in the models, as it were. Early picks consistently outperform later picks, indicating that it isn't just random at all....Of course things are quantified, I suggest visiting Fangraphs' new prospect page, where they talk about how they rank minor league players....that gets into both the scouting and the statistics that are used. Jay being this bad is a shock. I thought he'd at least be a good RP by now....I don't fault the Stewart pick at all really. And no, you can't just trade for them a year later. No one is trading a guy 1 year into the minors that looks like a star, not unless you are giving up a very good/great MLB player. How many of those can you give up. Of course you have to pay draft picks....