jtkoupal

The Twins blew a plethora of opportunities in Seattle over the weekend. They easily could have won at least 1, maybe even 2 games. They are headed to KC, a place they could very well find some success. However, if the offense sputters like it has, it doesn't matter who they face. The Twins really could use a sweep, but taking at least 2 is necessary. They can't afford to do worse. At all. Fun with Probability: *Projections via FiveThirtyEight Monday: 50% Win Probability Tuesday: 55% Twins favorites Wednesday: 56% Twins favorites Probability of a Twins Sweep: 15.4% Probability of a Royals Sweep: 9.9% The Twins currently sit with a 16% chance at a playoff berth... mostly powered by the 12% chance of winning the division thanks to Cleveland's run of mediocre baseball. Go Twins, let's get back on track

The Astros have rallied to take the lead in Cleveland. The Yankees hold a slim 2-1 lead on the Angels Twins, as it stands right now, are getting some help tonight.

The Twins need to take 2 in Seattle. It won't be easy. The Mariner's are a good team and the Twins have had trouble with them in years past, especially in Seattle. The Mariners are favored in every game, per FiveThirtyEight. (61% Friday, 54% Saturday, 53% Sunday) Probability of a Twins Sweep, 8.4% Probability of a Mariners Sweep, 17.5% The Mariners are in the Driver's Seat for the 2nd Wild Card at the moment. Gotta take at least 2 here.

Salvy Perez? A long shot, perhaps. But KC is putting up a "for sale" sign in the near future. So could he be available?

Oh Terry Ryan's desperation killed us in the long run. Couldn't have predicted the injuries, but could have predicted the decline in production. Good luck, Phil

I don't love to see that it was so hard for us to hit Blaine Hardy, a spot starter, until the 5th inning, but I do like to see the Twins capitalize on a bad bullpen. Berríos was great once again. Rosario was the player of the game. The lineup is still a quagmire without Mauer and Sanó, however.

We all would like a sweep. But let's focus on taking baby steps. The Tigers like to play us tough and our offense is futile right now. Gotta pitch them tough to overcome that.

Got Detroit coming in for a 3 game set. Gotta take at least 2 of those. The Twins can ill-afford to drop a series to a team like Detroit, hot or not. Gotta inch back to .500 while the Indians are giving us a fighting chance. Have a nice evening and get ready for Ron Gardenhire, Twins Fans!

It makes perfect sense to keep May in the bullpen for the sake of having a multi-inning guy down there. Starters shouldn't be allowed to face the lineup for the third time, so it is necessary to keep multi-inning guys down there. The more effective innings you can get from your bullpen, the less you have to expose your starting rotation, so I like the idea of keeping May down there for insulation.

My idea was to bring Trevor May up to be the long man when he is ready to come off of the DL. I don't know if they are trying to stretch him out as a starter, but a multi-inning bullpen arm seems to be a logical role for him at this point, given the logjam in the rotation that will exist when Ervin Santana comes back around the same time.

Curious how Molitor doesn't use Hughes for more than 1 inning at a time. This would have been the opportunity to let him get 2-3 innings, but he opts to keep him strictly for 1 inning. If I'm Hughes, that's pretty demoralizing.

It's getting late early. The only thing keeping the Twins alive is the underperformance of the Indians, who are still the overwhelming favorites. Playoff probability drops by the day while the Twins continue to lose winnable games against mediocre pitchers. Only real hope now is for Santana and Sano to come back and be productive. The Indians won't be this mediocre all year.

Objects in mirror are closer than they appear... get it together, Lance. Ervin Santana lurks right around the corner...

I absolutely agree. It is not in his best interest to have a disastrous ERA. However, the lack of free agent might not change given who is all scheduled to become available this winter. I have not spoken to Lance Lynn, so of course my opinion is not relevant. It was just a possible explanation.

Agreed. The opposite is plausible. Beings that I have not spoken to Lynn or been in the clubhouse, my opinion means nothing. However, if he is going to turn it around, he better act fast. Big Erv is lurking right around the corner

I don't know if any of you buy into this, but I wonder if there is a non-statistical explanation for at least some of Lance Lynn's poor performance. I am as pro-analytics as anybody, but even I cannot ignore the possibility of emotional or psychological factors that could impact a player's performance (something that statistics would have a hard time quantifying) At this point, the short spring training is becoming a far less believable excuse. We thought he may be on the right track after the White Sox game, but then he went right back to the previous Lance Lynn in the Angels game. Lynn has now started 7 games for the Twins. The "late signing/short spring training" excuse is reaching the end of its life span. Could he just simply be disinterested? In his recent interview with Brandon Warne, Lynn basically said he "[only had one offer, so kinda had to take it.]" This could be interpreted in many different ways, but it certainly isn't out of the question that Minnesota wasn't his preference. Furthermore, rumor was during the offseason that he was unhappy with the Twins' original offer, so maybe he didn't started on the right foot with the organization? I could understand how the lack of demand in free agency would be frustrating for a pitcher who has been successful for most of his career, but ideally, one would like for that frustration to not be taken out on the field. Lynn didn't get the money or years that he expected, and maybe, psychology, that is hurting his outlook and performance. DISCLAIMER: I am not saying that this IS the case for Lance Lynn. However, I am simply pointing out that it COULD be a possible explanation that we will never find by digging through data. I hope this is not the case, but given that his performance through 7 starts is staggeringly worse than his career numbers, it has to at least be a worthy theory. I hope to see him get a few more starts, and he absolutely will, and see him start to pitch more like the "real" Lance Lynn. But if he can't figure it out soon, he had better be worried considering both the emergence of Fernando Romero and the return of Ervin Santana.

Morrison has been heating up, but the lack of power is concerning. He's only slugging .336 with only 9 XBH in 136 Plate Appearances. The OBP of .294 is probably more concerning. Worth Noting: Morrison has been far less patient than in past years. He has swung at 49.8% of pitches, far more than his career clip of 44%. He has swung at 28.3% of pitches outside the zone, compared to 26.9% in his career. Most staggering, though, is that he has swung at 78.8% of pitches in the strike zone, WAY higher than his career mark of 66.8%. I can't say I understand why this is happening, but it's certainly worth noting.

sure would have loved to steal this game, but it's hard to be upset about what the Twins did on this road trip. Won a couple of games against a first-place team and split with a very hot Angels ball club. This homestead could be exactly what the Twins need to get back to or maybe even over the .500 mark. This homestead won't be easy. The Cardinals, albeit beat up a bit, are still very dangerous. The Mariners, even sans Cano, are still a threat. The Brewers have been a good team most of this season. And although the Tigers are cold, you can't overlook them. They can still do damage if taken for granted. This 9 game homestand should hopefully produce at least 5 wins. Hopefully more, but that should be the basement for this homestead.

Another cardiac game for the Twins. They have had trouble in every win since the Puerto Rico series. Molitor's decision to leave Berrios in was gutsy, but it paid off this time. I don't think I'm being short sided when I express the concern for the rotation, though. There just hasn't been a lot of clean starts since the Berrios gem in Puerto Rico. I believe that Gibson in NY and Odorizzi vs CIN are the only 2 quality starts we have gotten since that day. Either way, the offense is coming alive, sort of. Still need to see them cash in on RISP opportunities a little more though. Can't be getting complacent with 4 or 5 runs on the board given what's happened with the pitching lately. Finally, I liked the move to flip Mauer and Dozier in the lineup. I've been saying that Mauer should lead off since 2014. It's amazing that it has taken 4 years for them to figure that out. Also, all the speculation about Dozier's "mental thing" about hitting leadoff should be thrown out the window after almost hitting for the cycle in the #2 hole yesterday. Enjoy this one and let's go get another one tonight agains our old friend Hector Santiago!

It has to come down to execution. Jake's career splits speak for themselves. Time OBP/OPS/tOPS+ 1st .283/.656/85 2nd .297/.714/100 3rd .327/.800/123 *where tOPS+ is a measure of the OPS allowed relative to overall OPS allowed. The spike in those numbers is staggering. However, the bullpen argument is a legitimate one that cannot be ignored either. The manager has to know when his pitcher is executing his pitches and when he is not. In this case, Jake had not been executing flawlessly the previous several innings and had been allowing runs. In this instance, ignoring the result, the correct decision was still to pull him. In his last start, against the Reds, he was executing his pitches much better. Seeing him face the lineup for a 3rd time made me uneasy that day, but it was not a bad decision, results aside, to let him keep pitching. It all has to come down to the process. Especially with a guy whose numbers the third time through the order are significantly worse.

Paul Molitor deserves an assist for this loss. Odorizzi has shown a consistent pattern of blowing up when he faces the lineup for the 3rd time. Mollie let Jake face the White Sox lineup for the 3rd time. The error by Grossman is not Molitor's fault, but letting Odo face the lineup in the 6th inning despite the fact that he was showing evident signs of fatigue is 100% Molitor's fault.

Escobar can definitely hit. His defense isn't the best, but he can hit. Problem is, he is a free agent at the end of the year. If the Twins don't compete, Escobar will finish 2018 in a different uniform. However, if Dozier is to move on, maybe keep Esco and make him the 2nd Baseman? I don't love his glove on the left side, but maybe 2nd Base isn't a bad idea.

I still think the Twins heat up in May. The Indians haven't looked stellar lately either, so there is still hope, guys. However, if we can't get healthy and start performing like we can, then guys are getting traded. There is no way around it. In short, here is what we are seeing: 1. Bullpen is being asked to pitch too much and it's taxing them. That is the fault of both the starting rotation and the fact that there hasn't been a long reliever out there until now. 2. Guys that shouldn't be starting are getting too much playing time because of injuries (i.e. Grossman, Adrianza, LaMarre). These are guys that play better when used less. You play them this much, you see why they aren't starters. 3. Underperformances by a number of key players. To name a few: Dozier, Castro, Rosario, Morrison, the whole pitching staff. These guys can't be this bad all year. There is too much talent on this roster for them to suck completely for 162 games. With this American League, it's not going to be easy to grab a playoff spot. However, there is no gain in trying to tank because there are too many teams that do suck completely. Bottom line, there is no roster move that can fix what is happening. The only solution is for the guys already on the roster to step up like they can.

Most of Garver's games have been low-scoring games, so maybe he isn't a bad game caller. His defense, though, still has lots of room for improvement. (If you need evidence, go back and watch the 2nd game of the Yankee series. Actually, don't do that to yourself) I think Molitor will get him into the lineup against righties more often with time. Even if he doesn't catch, I see no reason why we can't use him as an alternative to Grossman in RF or maybe at DH/1B here and there. If he can hit even at a decent level, there will be a spot for him in the lineup a lot of days.

To begin, I haven't liked the Rodney signing since day 1, and I certainly haven't liked the idea of him pitching in high-leverage situations. That being said, I'm glad we have Reed to pitch earlier in the game, as often times games are saved before the 9th inning, and your best reliever should pitch in the highest leverage situation. Anyway. I really like what Mitch Garver accomplished today. I haven't loved the fact that he's only been in the lineup against lefties, as a lot of his damage has actually come in the few situations he's faced righties. I think Molitor will expand Garver's role, especially if Castro continues to suck. I said before last night's game that I think the Twins will win 6 of 10. So far, they are 1-1 in those games, so they need to go 5-3 in the next 8. I think that's doable given the opponents. Have a wonderful night, Twins Territory, and let's go get another W tomorrow!