twinsfan34

It could be a little bit of addition by subtraction too. Helps Yankees, hurts Red Sox. Maybe why they were more willing to go after Ellsbury and for as much as they did.

As my dad has said many times, "there's a sucker born every day."

If I'm not mistaken, John Buck was Nolasco's catcher in 2011 (with FLA). One of Nolasco's worst years... http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolasri01.shtml

Minnesota State Income Tax bracket for Salty, 9.85%. so roughly 10% or $700k a year. http://www.revenue.state.mn.us/individuals/individ_income/Pages/Minnesota_Income_Tax_Rates_and_Brackets.aspx He probably won't be playing in Florida long. Marlins Owner, Laria, has turrets, he hits the trade button often and randomly. I'm just glad the Twins didn't sign him. So glad.

Beane also signed Ben Sheets for $10M...and he never even pitched a pitch for them. He also signed Chris Young this past year for over $8.5M. He hit .200 in 335 ABs. Billy Beane isn't about making great trades. Billy Beane is about making trades before he gets nothing in return. Pre-Arbitration or pre-free agency, he's a 'what can I get for this guy' type of guy. So a lot of times the other team is getting the better deal, but Beane doesn't walk away empty handed, that's his MO.

Billy Beane gave away Carlos Gonzalez, top 5 prospect in the game at the time, for 3 prospects who never amounted to much when it was all said and done (Holiday trade, Brett Wallace, etc). Only Michael Taylor is with them. He's 27, after 3 seasons with the A's he's hit a robust .135 in 74 big league at bats. One of the all-time worst trades in MLB history in my opinion, especially if Gonzalez can stay healthy with the Rockies. As despite his 'health issues' Gonzalez has racked up 4 20-20 seasons, 3 GGs, and a batting title while only averaging 129 games a season. So that's 1/2 season of Matt Holiday and whatever Michael Taylor ends up doing (74 ABs at .135 and counting) against whatever Carlos Gonzalez ends up doing for the rest of his career. AKA HOFer if he stays healthy.

Great find! (note to self: follow this guy) And excited the Twins are giving Pinto a legitimate shot. Turner would be ready in 2 years as well if Pinto ain't worth beans. Is there any other FA starting arms out there worth spending the money on?

Signing Salty to a 3 year deal would spell the end of Pinto's development and being a MLB starting catcher. Pinto will be 25 starting next season. He'd be 29 before he'd be playing more than 40 games a year if we signed Salty. That doesn't say belief in a guy as a possible MLB starting catcher. Salty would hurt, maybe stop, his development as to get him playing experience/development he'd have to go back and forth to AAA to get the necessary experience. There's posts saying he's a horrible pitch framer (cited one where he was the 2nd worst in MiLB). Not sure what they expect him to hit. If it's expected he'd hit anything better than .265, he's going to put up better AVG/OBP/SLG than Salty. So that isn't a glaring endorsement for him as a hitter either. Perhaps, the "hopeless" is slight exaggeration on my part. But, I just don't see delaying/killing/whatever Pinto might be until he's 29...which is preceded by sitting on the bench for 3 years.

Those are Morneau numbers....but imagine 100 more strikeouts and playing only 120 games. Interesting note. Pinto seems to be better (AVG/PWR) against RHP than LHP. Not by much, but 2012 had similar results. 2013 http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=pinto-001jos&type=bgl&year=2013 2012 http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=pinto-001jos&type=bgl&year=2012

Wow. With Molina on the roster? Same type of Catcher...and Maddon said he saved like 45 runs last year. Unusual platoon/split.

Love the name by the way. Story behind it? I guess I would ask you this: Would you pay $10M per season for what Morneau did last season? That's what Salty will give you. That's .740 OPS. area. Or that 108-118 OPS+. Defensively... Morneau is a better than average 1B per range factor and fielding %. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morneju01.shtml Salty is worse than the average catcher per range factor, CS %, and fielding % http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml Mauer has a better fielding % and CS% than the league average Catcher. But worse range factor. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml -------------- The Red Sox have $25M more to spend on contracts than 2013 with the new TV contracts. Ellsbury cost $9M in 2013...lets just get outlandish and say he gets $25M and the Red Sox give it to him. Currently they only have $88M contributed towards the 2014 Budget (before AJ signing). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dFJFeEZycXdDSlpfVVJxa0phdGN5UXc&output=html That said, they could have easily afforded Salty at 3yr $36M without a bump in the road. Salty made $4.5M in 2013. So $8M raise. But they didn't sign him. They're other/backup catcher is going to be 37. Their 'next' catching prospect is only in AA...great defender. Christian Vasquez: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=vazque001chr MLB.com has him #15 in Boston Red Sox top 20 Prospects. http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/index.jsp?c_id=bos Bleacher Report, after the 2013 season didn't even have him in the top 10. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1777917-ranking-boston-red-soxs-top-10-prospects-after-the-2013-minor-league-season That said, the Josmil Pinto is often in the Twins top 10. A deeper, more talented farm system. As seen in Minor League Ball (John Sickels - worked as Researcher for Bill James) and Baseball Prospectus (Jason Parks) http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/10/15/4838866/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2014 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22250 So...as much crap as Twins fans seem to give Pinto as being hopeless, the Red Sox, who had Salty, know his body of work...and have subpar catching prospects (according to Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Minor League Ball, etc etc)...and plenty of money to pay Salty. They let Salty go. No one believes me, but you don't sit a 'top catcher' for 4 out of the 6 World Series games for a guy hitting .213 who doesn't show much better defensive factors. Then to reinforce it they signed another 37 year old catcher.

I'm fine with both signings. I'm curious as to how they'll perform with the Twins, especially where Phil Hughes could potentially live up to some earlier projections. The question I have...as maybe it's not really a feasible comparison - as I have no idea what the posting $$$ will be. But, given that we have committed almost $20M per year over the next 3 seasons for Nolasco and Tanaka. Would you rather had the Twins posted that $55-$70M posting fee and then paid Tanaka that money?

Puckett's number is retired. I doubt he had any interest in the number. http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/min/history/retired_numbers.jsp I bet he sticks with his #65 or goes with his HS #45.

Well the Red Sox went with AJ. http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/10072049/boston-red-sox-reach-terms-free-agent-catcher-aj-pierzynski

I liked Navarro. He isn't seen as a good receiver/pitch framer, but his defensive numbers (advanced and simple) are better than Salty's or AJ's. I see signing Salty as having to be $10M+ per year...and likely no less than 3 years. If we do that it all but points to giving up on Pinto. He'd be 28 before he'd have a chance to start in 2017 and playing 40-50 games a year wouldn't serve to help him develop much so it would seem it likely wouldn't be any more likely to be a starter material in 2017 than he is now. On the Salty end, he's top 3rd of 'pitch framer/receivers' or just above average. The Twins set the 3rd highest strikeout total EVER for a team and their OBP was very low. There's a lot of studies going on on Fangraphs and SABR on the single vs BB and how strikeouts go vs contact outs. Nothing overly conclusive yet. I'm looking for more on it myself. That said, Salty on the offensive side, he strikes out 30% of the time while walking only 7% of the time and his 'power numbers' don't offset those deficiencies enough to warrant putting him in the lineup. Hanigan looks to be trade worthy according to rumors despite the Reds signing him to a 3 yr $4M deal. He's top of the line defensively (everything after the pitch frame). And he's better than Salty as a pitch framer.

A 3rd Outfielder is kind of a bonus at that point...

Great share. Thanks. What was the MLB average BABIP & HR/FB% over those years?

Interesting take. Didn't know that stuff. Could have been/be a factor. You hear little things like where one's wife wants to live to being able to 'get away' (hunting/fishing) etc being deciding factors for athletes. I know I moved to Texas over Chicago and either of the Coasts because it had the higher number of sunny days, was more spread out, church possibilities, and no state income taxes. NY state and just living in the big city are giant hikes compared to Twin Cities as well.

Totally Agree!

This is great. I'm now almost 33 years old. And I've loved the Twins for years, my first love for sure. Baseball and Twins baseball. I was 6 in 1987. That Fall was something special. I remember when I quit baseball when the strike happened in 1994/1995. I couldn't believe the greed and any great number of things only a 13/14 year old could think of (obviously I understood very little about the business of baseball). All that to say, I've sort of ebbed and flowed at times as I've had a tough time finding Twins fans who are very involved and knowledgeable. I've dabbled in baseball research, SABR, this, that, and the other, but was looking for others who just were Twins fans through and through. Then somehow I only found this site 3 months ago, and it's brought back that childhood love. I check it 3..4..5..6..7 times a day. Great to find others who really enjoy Twins baseball. So, for all the stuff that isn't seen, thanks. It's appreciated.

Thanks for that. Very well articulated. Do you get the feel that the Twins staff (and maybe other staffs in general) aren't doing much coaching on the pitch framing? I could see where Mauer, being a full 6'5" would make it naturally tough for any ump to call the low strikes. I know the research might not go back that far, but does it stretch to guys like Pudge Rodriguez? It seens Ryan Hanigan is available after just signing a contract with the Reds 3yr/$4M. I'll have to take a gander to find some of Max Marchi's work.

Ditto. I can see Kazmir and Navarro as possibilities still. Hoping Nolasco isn't any more than 3 years and no more than 39m. And if a 3rd or more that it's a vested option. e.g. 200 IP, ERA under 4.00 type of thing.

Solid reading skills.

This is from BaseballReference.com. I changed the PB and WP to per game. The rest show raw data totals, some stats that BR puts in from Baseball Info Solutions and BaseballProjection.com. Fielding % they are tied for their career. All other defensive categories, Navarro is superior. Range Factor, Range Factor per 9, Range Factor per Game, CS%, Total Zone Fielding, BIS Defensive Runs Above Avg, etc. Everything. I guess the statistic where Salty is better is the pitch framing. I don't honestly really think pitch framing is that big of a factor to the control/command of the pitcher. Even so, I'll yield Pitch Framing without any argument. Fielding statistics for Navarro vs. Saltalamacchia: Light blue indicates the advantage. Light purple is a tie. Technically if you take it out to 100,000ths, Saltalamacchia wins. .98947 to .98945. So basically one more PO for Navarro and he'd be ahead, it was that close. Some of the full definitions below of the more 'advanced' stuff that BaseballReference included in the stats pages. Navarro: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/navardi01.shtml Salty: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml

Actually, no, all of those guys, proved they were bad. Some had great Sept's and then horrible time after. Pinto has never proved he was anything like them. He may follow their paths, but he has yet to do that. Let's not project others performances onto him.