twinsfan34

[TABLE=width: 686] Rank Player (yrs age) WAR HOF ?? Years WAR/yr WAR/YR Rank [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 686] 225 CC Sabathia (13, 32) 55.4 - 13 4.3 91 61 Charlie Gehringer+ (19) 80.7 HOF 19 4.2 92 86 Harry Heilmann+ (17) 72.2 HOF 17 4.2 93 283 Kirby Puckett+ (12) 50.8 HOF 12 4.2 94 145 Richie Ashburn+ (15) 63.4 HOF 15 4.2 95 119 Ryne Sandberg+ (16) 67.6 HOF 16 4.2 96 52 George Davis+ (20) 84.4 HOF 20 4.2 97 120 Carlos Beltran (16, 36) 67.5 - 16 4.2 98 121 Carl Hubbell+ (16) 67.5 HOF 16 4.2 99 47 George Brett+ (21) 88.4 HOF 21 4.2 100 41 Al Kaline+ (22) 92.6 HOF 22 4.2 101 149 Lou Boudreau+ (15) 63.0 HOF 15 4.2 102 152 Ken Boyer (15) 62.9 - 15 4.2 103 90 Bobby Grich (17) 71.0 - 17 4.2 104 35 Carl Yastrzemski+ (23) 96.0 HOF 23 4.2 105 197 Eddie Cicotte (14) 58.0 - 14 4.1 106 129 Pee Wee Reese+ (16) 66.2 HOF 16 4.1 107 43 Gaylord Perry+ (22) 91.0 HOF 22 4.1 108 66 Dan Brouthers+ (19) 78.3 HOF 19 4.1 109 99 Scott Rolen (17) 70.0 - 17 4.1 110 201 Bobby Bonds (14) 57.6 - 14 4.1 111 162 Wes Ferrell (15) 61.6 - 15 4.1 112 253 Elmer Flick+ (13) 53.1 HOF 13 4.1 113 136 Roy Halladay (16, 36) 64.6 - 16 4.0 114 69 Ozzie Smith+ (19) 76.5 HOF 19 4.0 115 33 Phil Niekro+ (24) 96.6 HOF 24 4.0 116 214 Mordecai Brown+ (14) 56.3 HOF 14 4.0 117 264 Mickey Cochrane+ (13) 52.1 HOF 13 4.0 118 114 Kenny Lofton (17) 68.1 - 17 4.0 119 62 Curt Schilling (20) 79.9 - 20 4.0 120 76 Sam Crawford+ (19) 75.2 HOF 19 4.0 121 147 Juan Marichal+ (16) 63.1 HOF 16 3.9 122 77 Lou Whitaker (19) 74.8 - 19 3.9 123 124 Roberto Alomar+ (17) 66.8 HOF 17 3.9 124 188 Dick Allen (15) 58.7 - 15 3.9 125 234 Bill Terry+ (14) 54.3 HOF 14 3.9 126 159 Mark McGwire (16) 62.0 - 16 3.9 127 81 Frank Thomas (19) 73.6 - 19 3.9 128 68 Robin Yount+ (20) 77.1 HOF 20 3.9 129 295 Roy Oswalt (13, 35) 50.1 - 13 3.9 130 [/TABLE]

[TABLE=width: 686] Rank Player (yrs age) WAR HOF ?? Years WAR/yr WAR/YR Rank [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 686] 46 Eddie Plank+ (17) 89.8 HOF 17 5.3 41 38 Roberto Clemente+ (18) 94.3 HOF 18 5.2 42 116 Tony Mullane (13) 67.8 - 13 5.2 43 82 Arky Vaughan+ (14) 73.0 HOF 14 5.2 44 207 Joe Gordon+ (11) 57.1 HOF 11 5.2 45 266 Silver King (10) 51.9 - 10 5.2 46 23 Nap Lajoie+ (21) 107.2 HOF 21 5.1 47 24 Frank Robinson+ (21) 107.1 HOF 21 5.1 48 42 Wade Boggs+ (18) 91.0 HOF 18 5.1 49 231 Miguel Cabrera (11, 30) 54.6 - 11 5.0 50 13 Eddie Collins+ (25) 124.0 HOF 25 5.0 51 80 Pud Galvin+ (15) 73.7 HOF 15 4.9 52 22 Mel Ott+ (22) 107.9 HOF 22 4.9 53 144 Vic Willis+ (13) 63.5 HOF 13 4.9 54 32 Jimmie Foxx+ (20) 97.4 HOF 20 4.9 55 148 Mickey Welch+ (13) 63.1 HOF 13 4.9 56 154 Home Run Baker+ (13) 62.6 HOF 13 4.8 57 123 Don Drysdale+ (14) 67.2 HOF 14 4.8 58 156 Shoeless Joe Jackson (13) 62.4 - 13 4.8 59 31 Warren Spahn+ (21) 100.1 HOF 21 4.8 60 91 Johnny Mize+ (15) 70.9 HOF 15 4.7 61 92 Ron Santo+ (15) 70.6 HOF 15 4.7 62 133 Ed Walsh+ (14) 65.6 HOF 14 4.7 63 270 Ted Breitenstein (11) 51.5 - 11 4.7 64 53 Roger Connor+ (18) 84.2 HOF 18 4.7 65 55 Pedro Martinez (18) 84.0 - 18 4.7 66 25 Greg Maddux (23) 106.8 - 23 4.6 67 28 Randy Johnson (22) 102.1 - 22 4.6 68 280 Jack Stivetts (11) 50.9 - 11 4.6 69 57 Mike Mussina (18) 83.0 - 18 4.6 70 30 Joe Morgan+ (22) 100.4 HOF 22 4.6 71 36 Cal Ripken+ (21) 95.6 HOF 21 4.6 72 49 Robin Roberts+ (19) 86.0 HOF 19 4.5 73 189 Urban Shocker (13) 58.7 - 13 4.5 74 146 Billy Hamilton+ (14) 63.1 HOF 14 4.5 75 191 Ichiro Suzuki (13, 39) 58.5 - 13 4.5 76 192 Rube Waddell+ (13) 58.5 HOF 13 4.5 77 50 Chipper Jones (19) 85.2 - 19 4.5 78 51 Fergie Jenkins+ (19) 84.9 HOF 19 4.5 79 202 Hank Greenberg+ (13) 57.6 HOF 13 4.4 80 19 Rickey Henderson+ (25) 110.7 HOF 25 4.4 81 75 Johnny Bench+ (17) 75.2 HOF 17 4.4 82 93 Adrian Beltre (16, 34) 70.5 - 16 4.4 83 208 Bob Johnson (13) 57.1 - 13 4.4 84 101 Ed Delahanty+ (16) 69.5 HOF 16 4.3 85 37 Bert Blyleven+ (22) 95.4 HOF 22 4.3 86 176 Stan Coveleski+ (14) 60.2 HOF 14 4.3 87 275 Johan Santana (12, 34) 51.4 - 12 4.3 88 60 Rod Carew+ (19) 81.2 HOF 19 4.3 89 85 Larry Walker (17) 72.6 - 17 4.3 90 [/TABLE]

Thrylos brought a thought to mind with his HOF standard ~ 75 WAR. Is the current number closer to 50 WAR? Would WAR/yr be a little more relevant? So I took all the players with 50 WAR or greater (297 players). This may miss some of the Gale Sayers equivalents, but what would those players look like in terms of WAR/yr. Jaime Moyer has 50.2 WAR, but with 25 years, he would only have a WAR/yr of 2.0. Would4 WAR/yr would be a good cutoff? Just missing the cut with a 4 WAR/yr is Mark McGwire, Frank Thomas, & Ken Griffey, Jr. Could be some exceptions for injuries, which if taking out those yrs they would be closer to 5 WAR/yr. Here's the results (in increments due to character limit restrictions) Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference [TABLE=width: 686] Rank Player (yrs age) WAR HOF ?? Years WAR/yr WAR/YR Rank 1 Babe Ruth+ (22) 183.8 HOF 22 8.4 1 3 Walter Johnson+ (21) 165.6 HOF 21 7.9 2 16 Kid Nichols+ (15) 116.4 HOF 15 7.8 3 2 Cy Young+ (22) 168.4 HOF 22 7.7 4 72 Jim McCormick (10) 75.8 - 10 7.6 5 186 Al Spalding+ (8) 59.2 HOF 8 7.4 6 4 Barry Bonds (22) 162.5 - 22 7.4 7 40 Albert Pujols (13, 33) 93.0 - 13 7.2 8 5 Willie Mays+ (22) 156.1 HOF 22 7.1 9 54 John Clarkson+ (12) 84.0 HOF 12 7.0 10 104 Amos Rusie+ (10) 69.3 HOF 10 6.9 11 18 Lou Gehrig+ (17) 112.5 HOF 17 6.6 12 14 Ted Williams+ (19) 123.2 HOF 19 6.5 13 71 Old Hoss Radbourn+ (12) 76.0 HOF 12 6.3 14 6 Ty Cobb+ (24) 151.2 HOF 24 6.3 15 10 Honus Wagner+ (21) 130.6 HOF 21 6.2 16 48 Tim Keefe+ (14) 86.7 HOF 14 6.2 17 7 Hank Aaron+ (23) 142.4 HOF 23 6.2 18 164 Jackie Robinson+ (10) 61.4 HOF 10 6.1 19 168 Tommy Bond (10) 61.0 - 10 6.1 20 21 Mickey Mantle+ (18) 109.7 HOF 18 6.1 21 27 Lefty Grove+ (17) 103.6 HOF 17 6.1 22 9 Tris Speaker+ (22) 133.9 HOF 22 6.1 23 171 Bob Caruthers (10) 60.6 - 10 6.1 24 67 Joe DiMaggio+ (13) 78.2 HOF 13 6.0 25 15 Pete Alexander+ (20) 120.1 HOF 20 6.0 26 29 Christy Mathewson+ (17) 101.8 HOF 17 6.0 27 26 Mike Schmidt+ (18) 106.5 HOF 18 5.9 28 8 Roger Clemens (24) 140.3 - 24 5.8 29 11 Stan Musial+ (22) 128.1 HOF 22 5.8 30 17 Alex Rodriguez (20, 37) 115.7 - 20 5.8 31 200 Joe McGinnity+ (10) 57.8 HOF 10 5.8 32 34 Eddie Mathews+ (17) 96.2 HOF 17 5.7 33 157 Charlie Buffinton (11) 62.2 - 11 5.7 34 221 Jim Whitney (10) 55.7 - 10 5.6 35 20 Tom Seaver+ (20) 110.5 HOF 20 5.5 36 12 Rogers Hornsby+ (23) 127.0 HOF 23 5.5 37 63 Jeff Bagwell (15) 79.5 - 15 5.3 38 195 Chase Utley (11, 34) 58.2 - 11 5.3 39 45 Bob Gibson+ (17) 89.9 HOF 17 5.3 40 [/TABLE]

As a single mid to late 20's AP Calculus/Physics teacher I was inevitably in various circles with 'professionals' and like anyone, would get the question - "so what do you do?" "I'm a math teacher." What would typically ensue at this point would be one of three things, 1) their personal horror story of how they began to hate Math, 2) how much they loved their AP Calculus teacher/class, or 3) they'd look for someone else to talk to as I was not going to make enough to warrant the type of lifestyle they wanted to live (Dallas area). I got where I was pretty good at spotting the 3rd even before it happened and would interject the disclaimer, "hey, those who can't, teach right." I got into teaching because my education - double major in Mathematics & Chemistry, just missed a Physics major as well - accompanied with while working on my parents hog/grain farm and catering business wasn't exactly a combination employers wanted to see when I tried to apply for jobs in industry. There were a lot of similar cases. International publications, Pre-Med students who didn't get into Medical programs, but also, people who were in teaching for the long haul. Some of those had truly mastered the science and were calculated in all they did, truly amazing to behold. I will say, I love watching even a good plumber, or anyone who's really good at their trade. So I will acknowledge that bias if you will. Then there were those teachers who, by this poster's post, probably experienced. And for that I'm sorry. I had some pretty rough teachers too. And I understand as a youngster (pre-18) those formative years typically have emotion tied to their experience more than a person who encounters a professional of another trade in his mid to late 20's for the first time. There's way more exposure to teachers too, and much like names, it often can take just one bad/poor teacher to ruin the entire profession/experience for a person. If you're a parent, you now get doubly exposed to the possibility of a bad teacher and you will have an emotional response to your child's emotional response. Some of those teachers are beat down by administrations and regulations that just don't make sense. From shoving kids in AP classes as 'no pass no play' doesn't apply to not holding kids accountable for grades and no child left behind - these all have wildly different affects on how a teacher can do their job, which often includes writing curriculum, grading papers, and also talking to the kids' agents, er parents. Add any of those other things where I have to write up to 5 different versions of an exam because of ridiculous learning modications, and you just took away any hope of a social life for my week. Many in America, often don't look at a teacher with much respect, we are after all what's between them and their kid going to the college they want to go to. Or for more short term, their kid playing in the Friday night football game. Let me share a story or at least something to shed light on how teachers are looked at in America versus say South America or in the East, like China, Japan, and the like. I love Chinese food, especially buffets. The quality is a little worse, but you get more choices. So Most weekends I'd choose either a Chinese buffet, a coffee shop, or pub with some good local craft brews to do grading and write the quizzes/exams for the coming week. I got to where I found a Chinese buffet I really liked and when I'd come in there they'd see all my books and naturally, the first time, asked what I did. And though their understanding of English wasn't that great, they understood: "Teacher." You should see the look on their faces anytime I would walk in, the whole front end of the store would often exclaim, "Teacher. Teacher. Welcome! Come! Come! You sit here. Is this alright for you?" It was if I was some celebrity. Why, well, you see, all the servers at that Chinese buffet were actually from China, they were working here to send money back home. But in China, teacher is perhaps the most respected profession of all or at least up there with doctors, lawyers, and the like. So I don't blame anyone who looks down on a teacher as meager profession, they live in a culture that says that and unless they gain a fuller understanding of their own culture and of the world - that's a view they would probably hold, even if a teacher they had in their formative years was a horrible portrait of a teacher. As far as the hours compared to industry, of which I am now in, I worked typically from 630AM - 5PM with a 14 min lunch break. I had one planning period which was an hour. I also had to write curriculum at my job, which often consisted of all day Sunday while watching football. Equations editor, browsing 15-20 Calculus texts for problems that won't blow the kids out of the water, yet are at an incremental level of difficulty. I got to watch football this entire time, but still, it was work. I had 140 students, and had to put at least 3 assignments into the grade book each week and no more than a 2 day turn around for minor assignments (non Exams). So I had to grade papers at least 2 days a week during the week and even if I took just 1 minute to look over a quiz it would require 140 minutes. So I had 10.5 HR days plus grading (2.25 HR, 3x week) plus 8 HR on Sunday. Then there's Exam grading which was every 3 weeks, which would typically take me around 10 hours with entering all grades into the gradebook, writing comments, partial credit, etc. We worked 38 weeks a year at 67 HR a week, plus one exam every 3 weeks. So 12 exams at 10 HR a pop. That's 2676 hours a year. Take that over 50 weeks, it comes out to 53.5 HRs a work week. I work 48-55 a week now in Marketing Analytics. So it's about equal. There are exceptions, Phy Ed teachers to Golf coaches, etc - with no lesson planning and no real graduation requirements (Math, Science, English, Social Studies) have it easy provided they aren't coaching either. They also get paid almost the same. For these - life is a dream. But they aren't the norm. Teaching is tough, I'm glad I did it. But ultimately, as USAFChief said eloquently put it, for me, the combat pay wasn't enough to go through what a teacher has to go through. Teachers put up with a lot - we get annoyed at work when a college educated mid 20's to mid 40's adult acts up - try dealing with people where NO ONE has a college degree and NO ONE is over 18. And try to reason and rationalize with them. I would say, if anyone has a low view of a profession, they should try it for themselves. The CEO of Waste Management had his eyes opened when he went out on the ground floor. If teachers, or any profession really, could get more people to do this, they probably could get better help from administrators, government officials, parents, and the like - as to do their jobs better. We all could. "Those who can't, teach."

I like this study a lot. It's pretty actionable if indeed it's as simple as having a team K/9 from one's pitchers. So looking for high correlations. This seems to fit: 9/10 seasons, Twins teams had 1,000 K's, and only one did they not get over 79. What's the opposite? When happens when Twins teams are under 1,000 Ks? (?/43 seasons) Then, as the previous poster said - is this a trend? So perhaps 1,000 K's in 1967 is more impressive (and better predictor of success) than 1,000 K's in 2012. Would need to get the weighted numbers. So is there a weighted number of the league average where the Win-Loss ratio just flips out. e.g. when 1.15 x the league average K/9 rate - teams won no less than 85 games at 90% correlation. Then I'd love to see some outliers. Such and such team had 1,400 K's but still was only 81-81. Then the opposite case, so and so team only struck out 750 guys, but yet won 85 games. And see if there was another strong factor to winning. Again, I think this is great - thanks - it's quite actionable. Versus trying to sort out BABIP pitchers or hitters (only 44% correlation year over year) - although a few like Clayton Kershaw have a confidence/standard error rate that is very consistent - so despite for the majority - it not being something to consistently count on year over year - there's always a few exceptions, like Kershaw's BABIP and thus ERA, etc.

Who's the better AA-prospect: Jose Dariel Abreu, Masahiro Tanaka, Javier Baez, or Alex Meyer?

He cost an absured $9.5M and didn't win a Cy Young. The Jury is still out - 2nd is the 1st loser. If teams are willing to throw out $9.5M for 5 wins (WAR) - what is MLB coming to with that sort of idiocy? Fansgraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13074&position=P Rangers have been looking to send him to back to Japan a la the Twins and Colabello. His 277 strikeouts at 11.9 k/9 was purely luck of hitter not having seen him for more than 2 seasons. I've watched no less than 5 games in person - he makes hitters look like AA-ball competition - like he had back in Japan.

Highland Park, Texas http://www.city-data.com/city/Highland-Park-Texas.html Estimated per capita income in 2011: $122,226 Estimated median house or condo value in 2011: $966,745 Texas : $127,700 and yet, that $85/day is the highest in the DFW metroplex.

Substitute teaching pay is lousy. Can make more as a horrible server at a decent bar, I've had both jobs, and I worked them concurrently until I became a full time AP Calculus teacher. Here's Greensburg Community school pay where Alex Meyer has been working: http://www.greensburg.k12.in.us/admin/Job%20Opportunities/documents/Sub%20Teachers%20requirements.pdf A little less formal, but it's at the expected rate. One of the top 10 richest school districts in the United States, Highland Park in Dallas, TX - also home to Matthew Stafford and Clayton Kershaw among many others is $85/day. http://www.hpisd.org/Portals/0/docs/personnel/Sub%20Application.doc‎ The pay for a substitute teacher is $85.00 per day. In some cases substitutes are employed for a fraction of a day at correspondingly lower rates.

Loved the analysis, Thrylos, bertrecords, and Willihammer. I tend to agree with h2oface and Brock. And just watching Pelfrey - not knowing the stats - his balls were just plain very hittable. Would like to see him mix up the fastball a bit - I could sit 'dead red' at 72% of the time throwing a very hittable FB and come out somewhat OK. Which is probably why his ERA was over 5. I found it somewhat amusing that when he came to the Twins, and after TJ surgery, that he had his highest strikeout/9 ever. Dang Twins pitching staff! Pitching to contact all the time! In 2013, his GB% was the lowest of his career, 43.2%. His BABIP was a little higher, but he has a career .312 BABIP - so the .337 isn't too far out. All in all, I hope he's better. He'll need a few more Ks and his GB% needs to get back up over 50% if we want to see anything close to an ERA below 4.

I'm on the group that hopes/thinks Kepler can contribute to the Twins. He might be 23 before that happens. He went into this season with an injury to his elbow I believe. Maybe his wrist, I can't recall. Either way, hard to get in the flow of things as a hitter when those are hurting - look at Albert Pujols the past 2 years. That said, all of that, he still was on pace for 20 HR if he had played the full season at class A - Cedar Rapids. Not too shabby for a 20 year old. Adam Brett Walker hit 27 HR (as a 21 yr old) to lead the Midwest Lg. Also, with the injury, he still had a 9.1% BB% and a 16.3% K%. Reports say he played pretty decent 1B, as others mentioned, showed agility at the bag. He's on the 40 man...so he's got 2 years, before we've had to use ML options?

Goulik, Sorry, my distinction of "4YR" is college in general, it could have been a JR coming out. Thus '3 years' - I used a lot of data from Baseball-Reference and didn't go into it much more. But that would be another angle, selecting Jr's from College vs Sr's. I'm working on putting together a column for the foreign born, although it would currently just be from where they were at previously. e.g. Jose Fernandez is Cuban, however, he went to a US high school and thus would be considered American based on the data I have. Probably not what you're looking for. If I had access to data that had birthplaces (without manually having to enter it all in) - I'd gladly run those numbers for you. Here's a quick rundown of all players DRAFTED (All Positions, then Pitchers) since 1990. But again, that doesn't necessarily take into account where they're born. [TABLE=width: 327] All Positions [/TD] country_code Total % Virgin Islands 15 0.0% US 33094 96.2% Puerto Rico 494 1.4% Other 317 0.9% Canada 474 1.4% Total 34394 100.0% Pitchers [TD] country_code Total % Virgin Islands 6 0.0% US 16797 96.6% Puerto Rico 135 0.8% Other 168 1.0% Canada 278 1.6% Total 17384 100.0% [/TABLE]

Not a problem. And you hit a nail on the head. I guess I never quite realized how good Brad Radke was. The losing seasons and the ERA's closer to 4 than 3 often made me wonder if he was really that good. I do remember going to games he pitched before he was a quick pitcher and thus the games didn't take 3 hrs. Though I do apologize, I forgot to include the subquery that eliminates if the player appeared as a position player later (e.g. Jermaine Dye, Nick Markakis). Kinda interesting to see some players initially drafted as Pitchers, Buster Posey was another. I'd like to find a place where I can find the Draft data sets. Here's a rundown of that 64. [TABLE=width: 128] [TD=width: 64]4YR[/TD] [TD=width: 64, align: right]25[/TD] HS [TD=align: right]33[/TD] JC [TD=align: right]6[/TD] Total [TD=align: right]64[/TD] [/TABLE] Would have to take away Jermaine Dye and Nick Markasis from the HS picks. One thing, on the college vs HS thing. I don't think we should penalyze a team for picking a player who eventually went to college and made the pros. It's actually tougher to know he'd make the pros when looking at him at 17/18 years old. One interesting thing about Jermaine Dye, while we're on the topic, he only ended up at JC. Not sure if he didn't like the money offered or wasn't offered a contract or what. The Rangers perhaps didn't offer him a contract as he was picked until the 43rd Round. So a lot of parameters need to be defined in the whole College vs HS debate.

This is a snippet...of pitchers only. Randy Johnson (4YR), Greg Maddux (HS), Tom Glavine (HS), John Smoltz (HS), Jack Morris (4YR), Curt Schilling (JC) are also likely HOF candidates, but in Drafts prior to 1990. I haven't entered all the data into my Database before 1985 as there's many phases of the Draft. June Secondary, January Secondary, etc. Here's a rundown of pitchers drafted since 1990. [TABLE=width: 441] Player_Name Club School_Type WAR Mike Mussina Orioles 4Yr 83.0 Roy Halladay Blue Jays HS 64.6 Andy Pettitte Yankees HS 60.8 Tim Hudson Athletics 4Yr 57.0 CC Sabathia Indians HS 55.3 Mark Buehrle White Sox JC 53.9 Roy Oswalt Astros JC 50.1 Javier Vazquez Expos HS 46.0 Brad Radke Twins HS 45.5 Cliff Lee Expos 4Yr 43.3 Justin Verlander Tigers 4Yr 40.3 Jake Peavy Padres HS 37.3 Zack Greinke Royals HS 36.9 Cole Hamels Phillies HS 34.8 Chris Carpenter Blue Jays HS 34.5 Derek Lowe Mariners HS 34.5 Josh Beckett Marlins HS 33.7 Jered Weaver Angels 4Yr 33.6 Dan Haren Cardinals 4Yr 33.4 Barry Zito Athletics 4Yr 33.0 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers HS 33.0 Matt Cain Giants HS 32.5 Brandon Webb Diamondbacks 4Yr 31.4 Jason Schmidt Braves HS 29.6 Adam Wainwright Braves HS 29.4 Kevin Millwood Braves HS 29.4 Mike Hampton Mariners HS 29.0 Alex Fernandez White Sox JC 28.9 Jarrod Washburn Angels 4Yr 28.5 Billy Wagner Astros 4Yr 28.1 Kerry Wood Cubs HS 27.7 Jon Lester Red Sox HS 27.6 John Lackey Angels JC 27.5 Ted Lilly Blue Jays JC 27.0 Joe Nathan Giants 4Yr 26.9 Bronson Arroyo Pirates HS 25.7 Jon Lieber Royals 4Yr 24.3 Randy Wolf Phillies 4Yr 24.1 James Shields Rays HS 23.8 Josh Johnson Marlins HS 23.8 Nick Markakis Reds HS 23.5 Ben Sheets Brewers 4Yr 23.4 Tim Lincecum Giants 4Yr 23.0 Jon Garland Cubs HS 22.4 Keith Foulke Giants 4Yr 20.9 Aaron Sele Red Sox 4Yr 20.6 Rick Helling Rangers 4Yr 20.6 Matt Morris Cardinals 4Yr 20.5 John Danks Rangers HS 20.4 Dontrelle Willis Cubs HS 20.3 Jermaine Dye Rangers HS 20.2 Mark Mulder Athletics 4Yr 20.0 Jonathan Papelbon Athletics 4Yr 19.7 Brad Penny Diamondbacks HS 19.6 Ryan Dempster Rangers HS 19.2 Kyle Lohse Cubs HS 19.0 Jeremy Guthrie Indians 4Yr 18.8 David Price Rays 4Yr 18.6 Doug Davis Dodgers HS 18.5 Max Scherzer Diamondbacks 4Yr 18.1 Erik Bedard Orioles JC 17.9 Scott Kazmir Mets HS 17.8 Rich Harden Mariners HS 17.6 Aaron Harang Rangers 4Yr 17.5 [/TABLE]

I had thought so... But then I thought I looked it up and didn't see it. Good catch.

On the College vs High School Drafts - I can give you a rundown of total players drafted (4YR, HS, JC, Null (International), by position, who made the pros from each, and as they're incrementally better (5 WAR, 10 WAR, 20 WAR, 30 WAR, 40 WAR, 50 WAR). College will get you more guys who make the pros. Almost double of the -5 WAR to 5 WAR players. Guys like Kyle Gibson (if he never plays MLB again) would fall into this category. His WAR is -0.8. Clete Thomas, 1.3 WAR is another. Then as you go further along, it gets really close, less than 1-2% difference until you reach 30 WAR, then the high school players take off and are anywhere from 3-5 times more prevalent to have WAR over 30, over 40, and over 50. Of the top 7 players drafted by the Twins since 1989 are all high school athletes, but one, Corey Koskie (5th). 1. Brad Radke - 44.5 WAR 2. Joe Mauer - 44 WAR 3. Torii Hunter - 42.5 WAR 4. Chuck Knoblauch - 39.8 WAR 5. Corey Koskie - 26.3 WAR 6. Justin Morneau - 19.7 WAR 7. Michael Cuddyer - 16.3 WAR WAR is from Fangraphs WAR rating. For what it's worth... Billy Beane, supposedly a 'pro college' guy took Billy McKinney (West Plano, TX - HS) in the first round. Sandy Alderson, who trained/groomed Billy Beane while in Oakland, is a pro-college athlete guy, he picked the best HS hitter (Dominic Smith) over the top College hitter, D.J. Peterson (picked next by the Mariners).

I'm looking forward to the 2014 MLB Draft... Definitely a lot more production in Starting Pitching (both High School and College) as well as power throughout the draft. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/led-by-north-carolina-states-carlos-rodon-mlbcoms-ranking-of-top-50-draft-prospects-revealed?ymd=20131204&content_id=64354604&vkey=news_mlb Too bad we didn't have a lot of guys moving on like Fall 2011...I'd love more sandwich 1st RD picks in this upcoming draft.

I like the Kubel signing and the moving of Doumit. If Kubel hits, great, if not. I'm still happy with the risk/reward and the moving of Doumit. The Twins are trying to move Colabello too, which is more for the roster spot/playing time rather than his cost (x<$590k) to the team. Cruz and Drew are not good investments of WAR to value to players we already have. $13-$14M per season for 1 more WIN at SS (Drew 3.1, Florimon 2.1) and Cruz is one more suspension away from being suspended for an entire season. He's also only played more than 128 games once in 8 seasons. He's also a defensive liability in the OF, even cost the Rangers a World Series. Cruz 2009 - 128g 33HR 2.6 Def (Fangraphs) 3.0 WAR 2010 - 108g 22HR 5.3 Def 4.9 WAR 2011 - 124g 29HR -12.2 Def 1.3 WAR 2012 - 159g 24HR -11.2 Def 1.1 WAR 2013 - 109g 27HR - 9.7 Def 1.5 WAR Honestly, if Josh Willingham is healthy, he's going to give you about equal production at half ($7M) the cost, without any sort of commitment beyond 2014. Willingham 2008 - 102g 15HR 3.4 Def (Fangraphs) 2.7 WAR 2009 - 133g 24HR -10.2 Def (Fangraphs) 2.4 WAR 2010 - 114g 16HR - 7.1 Def 2.6 WAR 2011 - 136g 29HR -12.8 Def 1.8 WAR 2012 - 145g 33HR -17.0 Def 3.6 WAR 2013 - 111g 14HR -13.2 Def 0.0 WAR Next Summer's SS Free Agent Class includes: Asdrubal Cabrera (29) J.J. Hardy (32) Jed Lowrie (31) Hanley Ramirez (31) I'd rather pay any of them the $10-14M per year that it would take have Drew under contract at least through 2014. Drew isn't a moron though, he'll look for a 3 year deal, as no telling if he'll be able to complete it with his injury history. I'd have no problem paying any of those 4 guys $14M per season, in 2015, when Buxton, Sano, Arcia, and Rosario are ready to contribute to a competitive team. The depth all across the board is better, from 3B to OF to SS to starting pitching. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1865181-why-mlb-teams-should-be-saving-blank-checks-for-next-years-free-agent-class Don't get into bad contracts that will hurt signing Free Agents in 2015, when the Twins will actually be looking to be competitive.

Ha, touche...more clear. Which 'pool' were they picked from, the kiddie pool (high school) or the frat party (college)?

Who are the best Twins Draft Picks of the past 25 years? 1. Joe Mauer 2. Torii Hunter 3. Justin Morneau 4. Brad Radke 5. Chuck Knoblauch 6. Michael Cuddyer Then maybe... Denard Span (HS), Jacque Jones (CC), Glen Perkins (College)...? Wanna take a guess how the first 6 players were acquired?

There has been a shift to HS players, even Oakland and the Mets GM (both 'college heavy' guys) have picked high school talent over college talent, opting for the best HS hitter over the best college hitter in both cases. McKinney (out of my backyard in West Plano) and Smith (for the Mets). That data from Bill James is dated. It ebbs and flows both ways. I have data in a database since 1970. You will find that more college players make MLB (less distance to go, injuries, etc) but more HS players accumlate WAR over 20, over 30, and over 50. HS picks tend to be better players (that make the pros), but more college athletes make the pros. Looking at the best players in the game you can find most of them are HS players or international signings. Here's a sampling... P - Clayton Kershaw (HS), Max Scherzer (College), Jose Fernandez (HS), Adam Wainright (College) C - Yadier Molina (Int FA), Joe Mauer (HS), Buster Posey (College) 1B - Chris Davis (CC), Paul Goldschmidt (College), Edwin Encarnacion (Int/HS), Freddie Freeman (HS), Joey Votto (HS) 2B - Robinson Cano (Int FA), Dustin Pedroia (College), Jeff Kipnis (College) SS - Hanley Ramirez (Int FA), Andrelton Simmons (JC), Troy Tulowitzski (college) 3B - Miguel Cabrera (Int FA), Manny Machado (HS), Adrian Beltre (Int FA) LF - Jayson Werth (HS), Torii Hunter (HS), Michael Cuddyer (HS) CF - Mike Trout (HS), Andrew McCutchen (HS), Adam Jones (HS), Carlos Gomez (Int FA) RF - Jay Bruce (HS), Yasiel Puig (Int FA), Wil Myers (HS) Then the last decade...some attempts... C - Joe Mauer (HS), Yadier Molina (Int FA) 1B - Albert Pujols (CC) 2B - Robinson Cano (Int FA) SS - Derek Jeter (HS) 3B - A-Rod (HS), Miggy Cabrera (Int FA) LF - Barry Bonds (College) CF - Torii Hunter (HS) RF - Vladimir Guerrero (Int FA) DH - David Ortiz (Int FA)

Terry Ryan seems to have a different take his 2nd go around at GM. That's what industry experts say. And you can see it in the types of pitchers he's picking now too. High velocity, high swing and miss versus the control college pitcher types. Byron Buxton seems to be a find, they're pretty active in DR, PR, AUS, and GER. I look for them to be active again this summer with their relatively high amount of international signing money left. Then factor in the Free Agent money he's shelled out for SP and it appears he wants one more. Signing Bartlett and Kubel to minor league deals are low risk higher reward type of deals. Not biting on Salty was a good idea, even though he went for a modest $7M. And I believe not biting on Stephen Drew is big deal. He's gotten where he's actually a below average defender at SS, according to SABR and other metric heavy groups. I think the bat is getting worse and he's already only a .250 hitter. Florimon cost $490K. Drew has $14M sitting on the table for a 1 year tender from the Sox. He's barely 1 WAR better than Florimon, for $13M more per season? Not a good deal. Sign Tanaka with that money. And if you must lose a Draft Pick, this is a deep draft, think more at the 2012 draft and where the Twins will be picking. Sure, he's an upgrade over Florimon, but this is about Wins and if in FA, buying Wins, Drew is essentially 1 Win for in excess of $10M per over Florimon. Are there any other $10M deals out there worth 2 WAR? or 3 WAR? Concerning the Draft. Just looking at 2012, which is considered not as deep as this draft. That's Stephen Piscotty, Lance McCullers, Eddie Butler, Paco Rodriguez, Alex Wood territory. Guys who are already in MLB or are stud prospects starting at AAA in only 1.5 seasons of baseball. Jorge Polanco is raking in the DWL, he had a very solid A-ball (Cedar Rapids) season and the jump from AA to MLB might only be 1 to 1.5 years away, heck maybe a Sept Call up. I wouldn't be surprised if he could hit .250 in the pros already and provide better D than Drew. I think the Twins would like to see more though. Trea Turner is 3 year stud at NC State and looks to be available at pick #5 for this upcoming draft. He could be a quick mover. 80 grade speed, great D. The amount of stick he has will decide how fast he makes it to MLB. But he's likely at most 2 years away. I'd hope they don't sign Drew for anything over a 1 yr $5 deal. Anything more is losing money for production in a season that likely won't see the Twins compete for a playoff position. If they must spend $14M and lose a 2nd RD Draft pick, let it Ubaldo Jiminez or Ervin Santana. I'd love to see the progression of WAR vs Age for SS's over 30.

According to that last article, Colabello would have to approve it. Can't tell if this was his idea or the Twins' idea. I'd be a little sad to see him go, as someone else posted above, I think he can have a measure of success in MLB. Get the right splits and he would be one of the Twins better hitters, at least for now. I wouldn't be surprised for him to hit .280+ and 15HR+ in about 380-420 ABs, though maybe just a hopeful ceiling, but that was my thought. Although, I kinda thought Parmalee could put up somewhat similar (a little lower) numbers - and that doesn't look like it'll happen. Has there been another offseason where it seems the Twins are so active? Maybe I just can't remember the other offseasons that well. Is Plouffe safe?

I'd love to hear if any of the Braves guys are available. They have 6 starters and the tail end are better than our group of AAA guys. Beachy would be the guy I'd target, however, we just traded with them, so it would have been more condusive to try to get him then. I think Alex Meyer will end up with the 5th spot out of Spring Training. I can't see any of those other guys really giving him much of a challenge. Sure they might put up good Spring Training numbers. But if Meyer isn't missing his locations (catcher sits outside, pitch flies inside) and has doesn't have a high BB% total - I just can't see them pitching him every 5th or 6th day as the #5. I haven't been much of a believer in Kyle Gibson since we drafted him. But he seems like a great guy, intelligent, and at least before his injury - a crafty pitcher. So I'd pull for him, even though I never thought he'd ever be part of a MLB rotation. The glut of AAAA guys is somewhat nice in that if there's a shoulder tweak or anything like that you can just bring up a guy and he can pitch on short notice. One of those AAAA guys who can do a pinch start is usually the long reliever, a la Brian Duensing. I had no idea Doumit could be traded. So that's about as much as I know going forward, but I agree with the guys above, I think there will be a few more trades that ultimately affect the 25 man roster.

Rightly...so. I see what you did there.