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Cris E

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Everything posted by Cris E

  1. Cris E
    Because it's 2026 and we're playing this season now. Next year they'll solve for next year.
  2. Cris E
    The decision doesn't rest solely on his performance. They are weighing stability in the current year above his potential contribution and/or disruption. You call him up when there's a spot to play, not a spot to sit.
  3. Cris E
    I think what was not said out loud in the interview was that Shelton is managing this year's locker room with these guys and a formula that they feel is working. Jackson is inside the circle, having a place in the machine (ie allowing Jeffers to pinch hit, pinch running for Bell) and his presence does not affect the important guys. Adding Jenkins will require messing around with the guys that are playing well and there's no way they are going to do that in a race. You may not agree, but you're not in charge. And while it is likely Jenkins' defense will be an improvement over most of the OF, there is very little basis for assuming he'll just be better than others at the plate. I would honestly map Kulpepper's surprising performance to Morris figuring things out vs how many other young pitchers that have been grinding it out this year (eg Prelipp, Matthews, Adams, etc.) with ERA over 5 and a lot of rough promise. I expect it's far more likely that Larnach rights himself than Jenkins would come anywhere near his performance thru the end of the year. Weren't we reading on this site yesterday how Clemens was cooked? Larnach is not done either.
  4. Cris E
    Rojas was in-between because until a few weeks ago the bullpen was not strong and there was a temptation to shorten him up and try to fill Minter's role. Now that they've shored up the pen they would rather spin him up as a starter since Ryan's butt, Prelipp's inning count and Ober's risky profile mean they could be vulnerable if the season extends into October, plus he can also act as a long man if it's not needed in the next two months. EDIT: As far as next up, Ryan is #1, Rojas will be #2, Gallagher at #3 (oops - not on 40 man) and then Anderson will represent a series of openers of various shapes and sizes. Short of some bus crash or mass food poisoning event I can't see Marquez doing anything but staying active in St Paul. If he wants a steady diet of AAA innings he's welcome to them, but if he aspires to MLB time he should go. The trouble is I don't see anyone else who would offer much more. Who has that weak a rotation and isn't auditioning kids?
  5. Cris E
    Yeah I knew it was fun when the name was David B rather than Noah Cardenas. Everyone knows Noah is a fourth catcher name and a David is going to want to be the backup. That's just asking for trouble.
  6. Cris E
    He never gets one from you.
  7. Cris E
    Ha! Over in another thread I just speculated that they'd package a bunch of the AAA youth for Xavier Edwards!
  8. Cris E
    I agree with all that. here's a few thoughts to go with it. I expect Ross to get a long look at 2B next spring, and it may turn out that if his SS glove is up to the task he could displace Kreidler. I think there's going to be a long talk about Bell vs Larnach in the DH spot. The dollars are close, Bell can face lefties and actually has power, but Shelton loves Bell in the locker room, so it's going to involve more than just stats. It'll be interesting to watch, but I expect to see Bell here. Martin may just be out of luck, or at least this could be the spring when the music stops and he and Roden are the two fighting for the last OF spot. Much of his fate is tied to Larnach's, but if both Jenkins and ERod break camp he could be down to a RH pinch hitter role. The catcher is Caratini playing a ton with Jackson behind him. I think they'll get another veteran to cover for Caratini's inevitable injuries rather than let one of the Saints' catchers darken the far end of the bench. Cardenas and Banuelos are not answers to any MLB question. I kind of think there will be some significant trades this winter to shake out the AAA backlog. Maybe Mendez or Erod or Gabby plus pitching to get something shiny and large and controlled for multiple years. An infielder maybe? Xavier Edwards?
  9. Cris E
    You can't move Buxton until you have another CF on hand. They used to sign very good ones (Taylor, Bader) but they didn't this year, either because they thought one of the kids would be up or they thought the 140 games played last year meant Byron would be around most of this year. Whichever, it seems they miscalculated and we've been playing some bad gloves out there. I think it's way too late to start working on this in 2026, but I've been indicating that they will begin the process as soon as Jenkins or Erod or Fedko or my little sister proves she can hit enough and field enough to take over out there. That can't really be until after spring training next year since we won't have a read on the kids until then. I expect Byron will approach the discussion with dignity, but I also expect a players' manager like Shelton to be generous in how it gets implemented. So I would expect to see #25 in CF well into 2028 with a lot of the transition occurring during injury breaks. EDIT: One other thing: Buxton still does have a good arm and should go to RF, the harder of the two spots in Target Field. It'll play to his professional vanity and leave the easier throws to Keaschall.
  10. Cris E
    Amen.
  11. Cris E
    On the one hand he was freely available for a reason and this is the first season he's been above average at all. He's not Vlad Guerrero not hitting in Toronto. And on the other hand it seems he can sustain a better level of play, Most guys on the roster have hit flat spots this year (everyone every year, TBH) so it's just something to work through. It happens all the time, so no big deal. They don't have a better option at 2B right now so they need him to figure this out. In fact he might be fighting through it already.
  12. Cris E
    If you listen to Shelton they are making these moves for the very immediate future. Jackson was brought back because he's a right side bat. No mention that he hasn't had more than a handful of AB in the past few weeks, just that he fits in as a pinch hitter or runner. That's not a good answer if you want more consideration for the kids, or for winning in 2026, or anything really. But it explains where the decision came from. As far as the first rounders go, most are not stars for any team. In fact many are not even average. Someone did a real study of the top 20 rounds for 2005-15 and found that the average career WAR of those players that reached the majors (not at all a given) was under 7 for the first round, 3.3 for the second and 2.1 for the third. Honestly the back half of the first round isn't even anything special. Lewis is already at 5.7, Larnach is at 4.5, and Lee has 1.5 this year. They are all young and still improving and should be as good as anyone's by the end of their careers. And as far as pride preventing them from letting guys go, you can easily find a host of players that this organization has given up on. It happens all the time, no pride involved. Look at first rounder Wallner. How about Nick "First Round" Gordon. Look at second rounder Miranda. Former child star Sano ended up with 8 War, 164 HR including two 30 HR seasons so the persistence was somewhat justified. But in the end these guys lasted as long as their work warranted, not their draft slot.
  13. Cris E
    You need to get out more. Ladies and Gentlemen, in MLB as a whole the batting average is only .244 and there are six TEAMS with a .235 or lower batting average (including the Guardians and Yankees.) To your specific point, the high scoring, offense-rich International League has a batting average of .253 and three teams have a sub-.240 BA including Tampa and Baltimore, two teams with some minor league talent. The Saints are third in the league with a .258 BA. Culpepper was only hitting .271 and has made that work so far at the higher level against some excellent teams. Mendez can hit. But to succeed he either needs to add some doubles/HR so he can DH or find somewhere to hide on the field in the bad half of the inning. But Rodriguez can hit too. His is a walks and power model, and that can be harder to sustain when the pitching gets better. ABS will help him out (compared with earlier guys like Julien who didn't have the firm zone to work with) but he needs to play with the big boys to find out. He'll always have a high strikeout rate because of how much time he spends deep in counts, but if he gets on base and drives the ball it's a viable way to play.
  14. Cris E
    Exactly, his next contract will determine this. If he's a career Twin he'll be a lock. If he leaves he'll be Torii Hunter.
  15. Cris E
    If they embrace moving one of the OF to DH and letting Bell walk the problem lessens. But honestly I am not nearly as certain as many seem to be that both Jenkins and ERod are going to just show up and hit next spring. It's hard, not everyone adjusts, and when pitchers get a book on them they have to adjust again, and not everyone can do that either. It's taken good bat-to-ball guys like Lee and Lewis years to establish long term stretches of average or above performance, yet Emma is still only hitting .242 in 99 AB at AAA. They don't have the horses to be casually discarding a hitter as strong as Larnach, or even Wallner if he's given a chance next spring. It may well turn out that Mendez proves himself at the AAA level before Emma and they have a REAL problem then. (At that point I trade Emma if I can get equal value. Sort of surprised he's still here, in a way. He may be great, but they pissed away his options so carelessly that he's spent at age 23.)
  16. Cris E
    Ober is remaking himself into Jamie Moyer, but it's important to remember that Jamie Moyer was a career 103 ERA+ pitcher who gave up the most HR in MLB history, and by a fair margin. He pitched forever, had four years with WAR above 4, but most of the time was just above replacement (12 years above 2.0 WAR, 11 years below 1.0 WAR and two years in between.) Bailey Ober can pitch in the majors, but he's never going to be much better than a #4/5 and we have better options than that queued up in St Paul. He'd be a good insurance policy if he were cheap, but you don't pay 30-somethings $6m to hang out in AAA as your seventh starter. There are teams that need arms to throw out there and he can get as many innings as he wants from them, but MN is better than that and he'll need to move on to get innings.
  17. Cris E
    Their Larnach Quandary is that they don't have quality bats just sitting around to replace him. It turns out hitting is hard, rookies don't always just show up hitting and elders sometimes just go cold. Casually declaring that he can be replaced does not make it so. And grabbing him with a vague thought of trading him or playing him somewhere or whatever (like they did last winter) doesn't work at $15m like it does at $5m. Folks were screaming to high heaven about his presence all year while he was hitting like this, so just imagine how ticked they'll be when the DH that costs $16m only has a 120 OPS+. The real issues are 1. that the only truly all-star level bat is Buxton, and he misses a third or more of every season, 2. that we're transitioning to young players and they cannot be counted on until they can be counted on, and 3. pitching is its own post but it's the same point about youth being fickle and whatever. So they can sign Larnach instead of Bell, but they need someone who can right side DH with him. That may not be an issue if they keep Martin, but it might if they decide Rodan is the fourth OF instead of Martin. Maybe Gabby G is ready, but probably not. And trading him away won't net much because he really isn't a power guy so you're mostly only getting meh OF defense and and left side doubles power. I'd rather have Arreaz at $12m.
  18. Cris E
    As soon as the kids get established in MLB you're going to start seeing Buxton move to RF. It'll save him some wear and tear, he's got the arm for it, and it'll let the CF stay in place to feel more continuity. It will take a year to complete, but I expect Byron to play 20+ games over there next year.
  19. Cris E
    Not a complete waste. Let's see... Fedko is not an answer Wallner is done here Lee is a 3b now Lewis can play 1B Culpepper can handle SS and the bat. Clemens can play many places and can hit Martin and Larnach are largely platoon players. And that excludes all the pitching learning: Morris will be very good, Rogers is done, Funderburk seems to have arrived, Preilipp is still learning, Bradley has been good but may be tired, building a bullpen on the run takes at least half a year and some money, but it can be done, and so on.
  20. Cris E
    It depends on what they do with Larnach. If he stays they need a platoon partner for him, and the team needs a pinch hitter against lefties in general. But some of the kids may do these things just fine so it'll be interesting what they choose and how many familiar faces get sent away next winter.
  21. Cris E
    @HarmonK03 Um, here's our roster and top position prospects. I'd put it up against most other organizations as far as picking guys and getting them to be productive MLB players. (It helps to have been bad for a while and getting a lot of high draft picks.) If your standard is all-stars or guys wearing WS rings then I can't help you because that's a pretty unreasonable standard, but as far as teams populating the MLB roster without relying on free agents then this team is pretty good. Drafted: Jeffers, Lee, Lewis, Culpepper, Keaschall, Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, Jenkins, ERod, Houston, Diaw Acquired in minors: Martin, Gabby Gonzalez, Mendaz, Tait Acquired at MLB: Bell, Clemons, Caratini, Kreidler You can argue that the teaching could be better, but honestly if Lewis came up at 1B and Lee was never a SS and so on you'd likely think the fielding was pretty decent and wonder why the second highest scoring team in the AL couldn't teach anyone to hit. The organization is moving guys around to improve the overall glovework. This was a year slated for discovery, development and a bit of Let's See What Happens, and I think that aspect has been a strong positive. (Alas I cannot help you with the Jackson recall. That's beyond explanation.)
  22. Cris E
    Well this is a ridiculous strawman. "Falvey only wanted single-dimensional players. They need to only hire front office people who think complete hitters who can also field well should be acquired." Dude, everyone wants good young hitters who can field their position. Everyone drafts CF and SS and slowly drifts them down to positions they can handle (unless it happened in college too, where a bunch of the high school SS and CF were moved to 2B and 3b once already.) If the Twins started signing guys at their appropriate positions you'd be complaining about the 3B from college who was too slow for the MLB game and had to go to 1B or DH. Every level is faster than the one below it, and at each step some of the fringiest fielders have to leave their spot and do something easier. Zoll and Falvey were not espousing some toxic ideology, they are playing the exact same game everyone plays. The big difference in MN was not putting a pure glove in the first hole and sliding everyone down a spot to help them out. That's essentially what the 2026 team has done to improve the fielding, at least in the IF. Injuries have derailed a similar evolution in the OF where Buxton being out and ERod not being available to promote left Keaschall holding some important roles.
  23. Cris E
    So how many dozen complete MLB players are there?
  24. Cris E
    Regarding Martin, he did have to move off 2B to the outfield, but he was in the minors and spring training for a lot of the transition. LK has hit so much better that he hasn't been allowed that luxury and people seem to have forgotten how young he is. Honestly if he'd been left at 2B his defense there might have improved by now, but it's beyond question that changing mid-season has put him at a huge disadvantage in 2026. Major props to him for keeping his fielding out of his hitting while he wrestled this thing to the ground. I fear that Keaschall might be one of the individuals most affected by any lockout in 2027, as he needs time with coaches this winter more than most. Seriously, a productive few months where he learned OF properly plus a hot first half could make him an all-star. One other thing: I expect Buxton to begin transitioning to RF in 2027-28 as the young CF get established. He's a got a cannon arm, the running around is lessened and honestly CF is a young man's game.
  25. Cris E
    TK's teams did play the right way, but those teams were pretty much just playing to the top of their abilities, and that's not meant as a compliment. Those were some bad teams but it was rooted in the roster work over the winter, not in the coaching in spring training or during the season. I did like a lot of what Kelly did, but I'd be the first to admit that times have changed and I'm not sure he could succeed like that today. But I am convinced that no one would have won much more with this roster, Matt Walbeck's 275 games with a 47 ops+ (SERIOUSLY: 1000AB of .571 OPS at the height of the steroid-fueled massive offense early 90s), Pat Meares at SS forever (2600Ab of 76 OPS+), Brad Radke followed by no one with Eddie G appearing 120 times a season followed by no one, sliding Aguilera from rotation to pen looking for some edge, then letting him start again when no one else would and being rewarded with a 6 ERA. Just some terrible baseball teams.
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