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Jham

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Everything posted by Jham

  1. Jham
    Cool article. Easy kid to roof for. His delivery reminds me a little bit of Pedro Martinez, my favorite pitcher ever. High leg kick, deceptive 3/4 delivery with zip that seems to rise on the hitter, and some serious off speed. He can't generate downward plane at his size, but he can bring the heat to generate rare upward plane! http://m.twins.mlb.com/min/video/v40540183/umgmin-berrios-strikes-out-four-over-two-innings/?affiliateId=clubMEGAMENU
  2. Jham
    This does not seem like a ringing endorsement for bringing Meyer up early. Perhaps those other pitchers would have been better served working on things in the minors. I know this is an Alex Meyer thread, but apparently I'm the only one advocating caution. Most of this site was excited for the Milone acquisition last year, and for Nolasco last spring. Even Pelfrey had, (and somehow still has!) a number of supporters going into last spring. A few struggles and now no one cares. I believe that if Meyer is the next Justin Verlander he won't have any problem beating out Milone, Pelfrey, May, or any of the Twins starters for that matter. If he's not noticeably better than these other candidates, well, he's probably not ready.
  3. Jham
    A team of seasoned major leaguers vs. a team of minor leaguers? Not even a minor league all-star team? I would hope the vets would win at least 100. Some of the younger players might end up being good enough to play or even star for the veteran club, but others will prove themselves completely over-matched, but due to the parameters of the hypothetical, they'd have to keep running them out there anyway, and that's where the vets would absolutely throttle the youths.
  4. Jham
    P.S., I would also start Meyer out in the Pen, as I believe it is more important for him to find success against Major League hitters than find consistency against AAA hitters at this point. Also, if by chance we do compete, we can perhaps use him in any number of valuable team-first roles without (hopefully) having to worry about innings limits or fatigue for a pennant run. Wait, did I just say pennant run? Disregard this entire post.
  5. Jham
    We have 2 claims. 1) That the Twins bullpen was above league average until 2/3rds of the way through the season. And 2) that the Twins bullpen sucked in all regards all year. I recall having the impression that the pen was wearing down by the end of the year (Perkins getting shut down, etc.) but do not know if this sentiment is supported by the statistics. I suppose now, it would be difficult to check?
  6. Jham
    I certainly hope you're right. From your posts, it seems you were on Meyer's change in change-ups before anyone. I've also seen conflicting scouting reports on whether Meyer is a fastball/slider pitcher, or fastball/curve. I know you saw him pitch one of his better games last year. But he struggled in other starts. I'm not saying Meyer or May won't or shouldn't be better than Milone. I'm saying you can see varying levels of potential in all 3. Picking one shouldn't be a slight against the others. I prefer going with some amount of proven success over potential success, at least early in the season. That's simply my preference. If Meyer or May are better, they'll force their way through. I just can't see why some posters are bashing MIlone like it boosts the stock of their favorite prospects. I don't see any reason whatsoever why all 3 can't be very successful major league starters.
  7. Jham
    I guess it depends on your definition of a flash in the pan. He had two above average full seasons and was working on perhaps his best season before he was traded for Fuld. Milone was expendable when the A's traded for Smardja et al. I would argue that Milone was traded for Fuld because of his sustained success. Milone asked to be traded, and the A's honored that request because he had been successful.
  8. Jham
    My only point in comparing Milone to Buehrle is that he shouldn't be discounted, and his success shouldn't be discounted simply because he doesn't thrown 95 mph or excite scouts with an electric fastball. I'm not arguing Milone is as good as Buehrle or will have a career as good as Buehrle. I'm saying that his stuff can play as a number 5 guy potentially even a 3. It's not like we're deciding between the devil we know vs. the devil we don't know. Milone has actually been pretty good. I don't replace guys that have been good with ones who could be good (Meyer and May) without a compelling reason to do so. IE Milone pitches himself out of the rotation or Meyer or May force our hand by dominating MLB hitters out of the pen ala Liriano, Sale, Price, Wainright, etc.
  9. Jham
    Failure of other prospects with similar profiles is not a good reason not go with Milone if he gives the best chance to win every 5th day. Prospects aren't guaranteed. Personally, I'm not 100% sure if there is any substantial difference in ability between Trevor May and Anthony Swarzak, and Meyer might be closer to Joba Chamberlain than Justin Verlander. What are the odds that Meyer or May end up with a career as good as Buehrle? Probably not that much different than the dozen other young pitchers you speak of. Milone has had multiple seasons of sustained success. That trait is the one characteristic that he has that is the single best predictor of future success in my mind. For good measure, here are Kenny Roger's stats: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1277&position=P He also threw a perfect game.
  10. Jham
    Career FIP 4.10, Career xFIP 4.20, Career K% 13.8 %, Career line drive % 20.1 %, avg. fastball velocity 85.8. Career record 199W to 152L, 51.8 career WAR over 14+seasons, NEVER had less than 200 innings. Never had a negative WAR. Also has 2 no-hitters including a perfect game. The pitcher? Mark Buehrle. He's already made $118,000,000 in his career not including the $20 mil he's set to make this year. Seriously? Wow. Good for him. Anyhow, some people evidently see value in soft-tossing lefties with a history of getting results.
  11. Jham
    Arcia is still super young, athletic for his size, and by most accounts, a pretty hard working kid. He's one of the few guys on the team with some competitive fire. I'm willing to live with him misplaying the occasional ball while playing hard, crushing the ball, and firing up the team. The MLB game is played at hyper speed. He wouldn't be the first player who needed time to catch up. I think he has enough athletic ability to be average or above average in the corners, especially right. Give him some time.
  12. Jham
    What a beautifully nuanced game our national pass-time is that we can have such meaningful discussions as to the merit of moving Mauer up or down 1 spot in the batting order, or the advantages and disadvantages of bunting against the shift. With empirical data to back it up, no less. Regarding the latter, I consider bunting an extremely situational play. In essence, each the scenarios that play out during the course of the game will almost certainly change the cost/benefit ratio of the bunt. Two players referenced in this thread, David Ortiz and Carlos Gomez could not be different in terms of foot speed. It would be folly to rely on a metric that did not take this into account. Also, the point of the game, may alter your approach as may a hundred other factors. If Ortiz is up in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game with 2 outs, and he can drop down a bunt and get a free runner, do you take it? Might depend who's pitching, who's fielding, who is on the bench to pinch run, who is on deck, who might pinch hit, whether you have an advantage in extra innings, who they have left in the pen, who is due up for your opponent, the relative success of Ortiz and the next hitter against the current pitcher and the one warming in the pen, and a thousand more things that might have an effect on the outcome... Now do the same thing for Gomez. Now for Mauer. Baseball is awesome. Opening day can't come soon enough.
  13. Jham
    Of course, the best change-ups are capable of striking out the side on a single pitch. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPfuorMa0sE
  14. Jham
    I remember going to a game last season against Cleveland where we shifted against Carlos Santana. He laid one down for a walking single. Later that game, he crushed one over the limestone. There's a couple ways to beat the shift!
  15. Jham
    I mean, that's sort of my point. Puckett hit home runs. Mauer is a contact hitter... I'm not bemoaning the lack of power or disagreeing with your reason why he led the team in double plays last year. I'm just wondering if 3rd is the best spot to bat him considering he is a contact hitter. I'm concerned that he may have gotten lucky to have only hit into 12 dp's considering his spray chart shows a lot of balls on the ground, particularly toward 2nd. http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=1857&position=C&type=battedball We were 7th in baseball in runs scored last year. Mauer drove in only 55 of those. I think its fair to wonder if batting Mauer third helps the team. I also think it's fair to say that his skill set would make him an unusual lead off hitter or 2nd place hitter. We all have theories about why Joe declined last year. We all have an opinion on whether he'll bounce back. I'd prefer to see Joe bat 2nd behind Santanta. I'm not going to throw a fit if he bats 3rd if its because Moliter thinks he will bounce back. However, if he has another year like last, I think we would be wasting Joe's talents by not moving him up in the order.
  16. Jham
    12 is not a ridiculous amount of GIDP's, although it did lead the team. So perhaps some truth on both sides. I think the issue some have regarding the GIDP's is the lack of slugging to compensate. If it is as Brock suggests a meeting of contact and opportunity, you'd expect more RBI's which is a similar meeting of contact and opportunity. At the same time, Mauer's K rate took another big jump last year which probably held back both the RBI and GIDP's. Bottom line, striking out and hitting into double plays is not a super great attribute for a player whose typical upside in those situations is a hard hit single or walk. Look back at the Mauer thread from a month ago which shows his spray chart and decline in SLG% along with his increase in K% and tell me that's not a bit disconcerting. Don't over think it. Santana first, then Mauer, Dozier, etc. I do not automatically believe he will go back to his MVP level, although a post-fatherhood bounce back is somewhat likely in my opinion, although it's really more of a theory. I don't think the Sabrs track a "first child/ short term re-evaluation of priorities" metric.
  17. Jham
    Mientkiewicz managed Rosario for a total of 50 games in 2013 and 2014 at Class A Fort Myers. “I love Rosario,’’ he said. “He can play center field. He can play second base, too. And he’s the best hitter in our system.’’ Mientkiewicz has moved up to manage the Twins’ new Class AA affiliate, the Chattanooga Lookouts. He doesn’t expect to be managing Rosario again this season. He said that Rosario is ready for a higher level — and not necessarily Class AAA Rochester. He said Rosario is ready for the big leagues, as in Opening Day, 2015, ready. Of course, he didn't see his AA struggles last year, but he got to watch him day in day out for 50 games rather than simply relying on box scores and metrics.
  18. Jham
    Hasn't Mauer said he doesn't like guys strying to steal when he's batting? I thought I read or heard that somewhere. Other than that, I always liked Mauer hitting second. He does hit into a ton of double plays due to his inability to lift the ball to the right side. Also the bunt seems to have left his game despite the fact that the 3rd baseman plays shortstop for many of his at bats and he's demonstrated exquisite bat control while bunting earlier in his career. So Mauer will have to get used to guys running in front of him, because I'd be sending guys with Mauer up constantly. I guess I also think Mauer's struggles last season were indicative of larger issues in his game (loss of bat speed). That said, he had just fathered Twins, he was coming off a concussion, and his team was lousy. I couldn't blame him if baseball was 3rd on his priority list last year. When his kids start getting a case of the 2's, the grind of a 162 game season might not seem so bad after all. So I guess I'll be optimistic for a bounce back.
  19. Jham
    Recent Strib article points to Molitor wanting him in Center and Mientkiwitcz saying he's MLB ready now. www.startribune.com/sports/twins/292542471.html It would not shock me to see Rosario break with the big club with Hicks to AAA. However, given the March Masher's (Hicks) success in spring training, I think think it's more likely we see him until June so we can delay that all important service clock.
  20. Jham
    What he command in a trade if we liked what we saw?
  21. Jham
    Horrible. I was particularly disturbed that the starting catcher would be asked to be involved with bullying and intimidating the young back-up presumably gunning for his spot and playing time (money). I didn't read that story as teaching team roles, I read it as veterans protecting their jobs, friends, and playing time. It almost puts a taint on Ripken's streak. Especially since it is highly unlikely that he faced any bullying at all with his MLB pedigree. For every player like Zaun who claims he was helped by bullying, I wonder how many other young players lose even a touch of their competitive edge at a time in their careers where organizations are making decisions about their futures. I wonder how many stood up to the vets and were cut, held back, sent down, or given the stigma of "poor locker room guys." *Incidentally, not necessarily a new story. http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2005-02-15/sports/0502150151_1_cal-ripken-ripken-career-steroids
  22. Jham
    Your timing starts with the fastball. I'd hate to see him lose his ability to mash fastballs because we wanted him to occasionally wait back on a breaking ball and wrist out a single to left. I'd honestly rather they teach him not to swing at them than try to teach him to hit them. Better then to focus on understanding how pitchers are trying to get you out so as to avoid the slider down and away.
  23. Jham
    If Sano isn't at least an average 3B for part of his career I will be a bit disappointed. This kid came to us a power-hitting shortstop. He climbed to 2 in the prospect rankings because he had a chance to be a top-level third baseman with his athleticism and arm. From what I've heard (never seen him play) he has consistency issues but has the ability to make the spectacular play. You don't give up on that.
  24. Jham
    Well, Meyers could still pan out as a starter where Burdi will almost certainly be a relief pitcher. I think that's worth the distinction. This is important considering how much more desirable starting pitchers are to even elite relief pitchers. Baseball Prospectus has no relief pitchers in the top 70 highest paid players last year. Rafael Soriano is the highest paid reliever at $14 mil/ year. Papplebon is next at $12.5. The 70th highest paid was Victor Martinez and others at $17 mil/year. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/ As such, I'm not sure how many relievers would break the top 200 if contracts can be looked at as a measure of worth to an organization. This is actually why I said the Twins should have moved Nathan into the rotation and then traded him (and why they should have at least considered moving Perkins back into the rotation to up his trade value when we were shopping him).
  25. Jham
    What does that say about his bad starts? I will take past performance over spring training flashes every single day. The first four starters have somewhat proven track records and thus deserve their spots in the rotation. Of the rest, clearly Milone has the most proven track record, though he was awful last season. Some have suggested a fall off in ability, loss of velocity, or possible health concern for his struggles. I would guess we're overreacting to what appears to be an aberration and that a bounce back season from Milone is probably one of the safer bets of the team's question marks, assuming health. To me, May showed serious nerves early on that gradually improved. He also had a fantastic season as a whole last year. For that reason, I would expect an improvement from May as well. He's right there. Depth is not a bad thing. The last time we made the playoffs we had 6 pitchers post double digit wins. This staff actually looks considerably better than that staff, btw. I think the worst thing we can do is "hand" someone the job based solely on potential or solely on salary. Hopefully we have a lot of tough decisions and heated forum debates because they all pitch so well.
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