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Jham

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Everything posted by Jham

  1. Jham
    Seriously... The whole "name names" thing is ridiculous. Numerous posters were looking at looming rotation gaps last season in front of the trade deadline. I won't even include Bauer who was likely never going to be traded to the Twins or Greinke who had a no trade clause. BUT... we were linked to Stroman (not an ace but certainly could be an ace any given year) and our excuse was that the Jays didn't ask us. DIDN'T ASK US?!?! Presumably we favored Bumgardner who we may have resigned as part of that trade (Eduardo Escobar style). Presumably we missed out because we were waiting on Thor. Well we didn't get him either. Zac Gallen killed us. Then a week later he was traded to Arizona. There's no evidence we even inquired. But the fact is we didn't get him. There were few buyers at the deadline last year. And the prices have gone up astronomically since. This front office did a lot right, got a lot from the previous regime's guys and stuck with their guns even when it didn't work. But the pitching staff has a real possibility of submarining an otherwise sound team or coaxing a panic move that cripples us for years.
  2. Jham
    Could he be stretched back out to a starter?
  3. Jham
    Good post. I mostly agree except that I think the long deals are stuck to preserve luxury tax flexibility. it makes it possible to strategically dip down for a year to reset the meter. your ability to stay under the cap is aided by the lower AAV. Obviously, at the end of the deal, problems can arise. I agree on making an analysis and figuring out whether a premium price is workable. I was specifically referring to the notion that we can increase AAV to sign Ryu or any FA. It's not worth talking about because it doesn't work. And as AAV increases over a shorter deal, the cost of the extra year goes down. If we love Ryu for 3 years $80, but refuse to go 4/$90 and miss, I will be nonplussed. But it sounds like some would do 3/80 but wouldn't take a 4th year for free.
  4. Jham
    His elite contact skill plays. Pitchers adjusted. Pounded him down down down then threw him out after the ball rolled directly back to them. He can hit anything. Really the only pitch he needs to lay off of is that ball in the dirt. He doesn't swing and miss which means he actually has a good eye and recognition. He just hasn't used that eye to command the strike zone. It's grossly unfair to assume that a player with his natural ability won't be able to adjust. He's already made a huge adjustment by adding power to his game. And he looked better when he returned at the end of the year. I feel he's underestimated.
  5. Jham
    I'd be super mad if we didn't land him because we refused to pay an extra $10 mil for a 4th year. In 3 years, a 1 year $10 mil pitcher would be how good?
  6. Jham
    He meant that's not how the Twins franchise works. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Pretty much every baseball franchise plan's years in advance. Of course they have a yearly budget... AS PART OF A LONGER BUDGET!! Does anyone get how ridiculous it is to suggest that teams are planning years into the future, signing long contracts, hoarding prospects with 6 years of control, but not budgeting past a single season? And here's the biggest thing. The other franchises ARE signing these long deals because they ARE budgeting into the future! More importantly, higher AAV and lower years never ever ever works EVER! Unless the QO is extended. Which is why players hate the QO.
  7. Jham
    Dobnak's success with ridiculous control of an unorthodox pitch mix is reminiscent of Tyler Duffey's 2017. Duffey was hitting corners with multiple curve balls at different speeds and from different angles. But doing that requires so much touch and finesse, almost no pitcher can have that much feel for multiple off speed pitches game in and game out. His curves were beauties, but only dominant when combined with control. Dobnak dominated with pinpoint control of his sinker and slider. In my opinion, I think it's really unlikely he can keep that up. I think his outing in Yankee stadium may well be his new normal.
  8. Jham
    Flip hits first half and his second half and we're probably not very excited. Flip Perez' first and second half and we're probably picking up his option. In the age of sequencing, I'm concerned that we're considering Big Mike II a lock. I'm also concerned we're calling him "Big Mike".
  9. Jham
    I don't think he's washed. Guy's a competitor. He's a lefty. He may never be again what he was, but there's reason to hope. I believe he'll be good for most of the next 4 years and useable for all of it. There's risk involved. There's risks in NOT signing him as well. I also wonder if we communicated our current offer during trade discussions last season if we might have had him for the playoffs.
  10. Jham
    That's my point! three years 100 mil and a fourth year for 12 is $112 mil. Just go with the $112 mil for 4 years and actually have a chance at signing him. Going fewer years at higher AAV isn't even worth taking about. There's a reason that NEVER works with UFAs.
  11. Jham
    You're not getting this and you're way off on your understanding of both economics and contracts. I'll put it in simpler terms. If Bumgarner gets a GUARANTEED offer of 4 years, 112 mil (28 aav), how much more do you have to pay him to accept a 3 year deal? In 3 years will he be more valuable or less? And if he got hurt, year 4 would be worth 0. So let's say you convince him that in 4 years he'll still be better than a $12 million pitcher (risky) and that he signs for 3 years $100 million. (aav $33mil). Let's say your nightmare scenario occurs and he's injured year 1. Wouldn't you want the flexibility of spreading that loss out over an extra season? What if under that scenario he said he'd sign for 3 $100mil and throw in a 4th year for just $12mil? 4th year starts to look better. Now what if he demands the $12 mil 4th year and the only other alternative is that you don't get him at all? That's why pitchers always go for the extra year. (unless there's QO involved)
  12. Jham
    I never understand this. Why? Just get rid of stupid nonsensical organizational processes like "every season is independent and carries its own budget". How does paying more for less make any sense in the world? The players favor more years. If you plan and budget for more than 1 stinking season you have more flexibility, not less, inflation suggests that the value of the contract decreases over time AND the interest that accumulates that you can reinvest over more time means more money too. Look at added years as interest free financing, not a an anchor. It's why lottery winners are offered $100 mil over their life but only $38 mil lump sum, eg.
  13. Jham
    Yeah wait til we panic pay Kuechel and trade for Boyd paying more for both when we could have gotten them last year when we needed them. Also, when did the FO learn of Pineda's positive test?
  14. Jham
    Escobar was signed immediately following the 2018 season BEFORE he officially hit free agency. I remember this because many people on this site told me the Twins could always resign him at the end of the year and that having a player on your team gives you no advantage in trying to re-sign them.
  15. Jham
    I guess I wonder if he can continue to be an onbase and doubles guy making very little hard contact. The shift humbled Mauer. Araez isn't immune. Defenses were already adjusting to take away left field and shifting the infield right. He's got a great eye, but it's hard to know whether his eyes is elite or he was just locked in. Will he expand the zone if pitchers adjust and he struggles? Will he continue to trust his approach if defenses start taking his usual hits away? His rookie season was unicornish. If he regresses while the league also adjusts he'll sophomore slump pretty hard until he adjusts back. IMO, that will mean having to burn the heck out of drawn in outfields while not rolling over to shifted infield. He almost certainly can't be any better at controlling the zone and putting the ball in play. Unless you believe the league will never adjust, his only way of maintaining that production without adding power would be to add a whole bunch more walks. No-power guys rarely draw tons of walks. Of course, guys with his natural hitting ability, great approach and contact frequently add power to their game without great difficulty.
  16. Jham
    I think he'll have to improve his power and pull percentage numbers to keep defenses honest if he's going to continue his level if production. he's at a point in his career where contact hitters frequently make that jump. Neither Planco nor Dozier were power hitters in the minor leagues. If you have contact, you can usually add some power. If you have power, it's harder to dial back and hit for contact.
  17. Jham
    lower than last year. we'll be willing to go higher, but strike out on big free agents. then we'll say we have payroll to add salary through trades. then we'll say no one trades before the deadline. Then we'll complain that the guy we wanted was traded before the deadline. then we'll complain about the prospect price. then we'll trade for cheap rentals. rinse, repeat.
  18. Jham
    Nick needs to realize that how he says things is as important as what he says. The facts and analysis is good. The condescending attitude is offputting and borderline bullying, imo. A writer should never ever start a rebuttal with an LOL at someone who bothered to read and comment. Both sides are arguing the same point. Rosie's success in some areas is incongruent with his abject failure in other areas. Most players that struggle with obp also struggle with k's and getting hits. Rosie didn't. Does that mean that going forward his counting stats are likely to decline to be on par with his advanced metrics and suspect plate approach, or does the power and contract despite ridiculous approach suggest that major step forward is well within reach. What's easier to improve, skill or approach?
  19. Jham
    beggars can't be choosers. Best to keep all options open.
  20. Jham
    The CBA isn't negotiated by minor leaguers. The service time rules frees up more money for veterans. Every player thinks that they'll be one of the good ones that will get a big FA deal. So is it good or bad for players? As chief would say, "yes". It's also good AND bad for players. Good for vets but bad for talented rookies. Different strokes and such.
  21. Jham
    Do we have pitch fx and statcast data on 2019 compiled regarding league velocity? Studies showed the ball had less drag which should mean greater velocity although some guns measure straight outta the hand. I'm wondering if velo readings are sort of skewed last year like the HR numbers.
  22. Jham
    And I'm actually ok with this. From a numbers standpoint, I doubt we find 4 guys better.
  23. Jham
    Ummm... about that...
  24. Jham
    I dunno, in most of the appearances I saw, it was hard to argue he had more than 1 mlb ready pitch, and hitters can catch up to heat pretty well at that level. Control was an issue. He mostly sat high 90s not 103. Didn't generate lots of swinging strikes. His "wipe out" slider ducked out of the zone every time. I recall 1 outing where it was genuinely effective. He's got a chance, but he needs to get significantly better at pitching. His MiLB numbers are really good. But not MLB ace good.
  25. Jham
    No, I agree that it could entice a player. Just I don't see teams doing this because more years for lower AAV tends to make sense for top level players. If your mortgage charge 0% interest, you'd have no incentive to pay down your home faster. If a player was to front load, I think they'd rather just sign a shorter deal and hit FA again. Again, we just don't see that with top players.
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