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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    If they could get Miler or Crawford for a reliver I would do that deal. I am betting the Phillies won't be letting those two go easily though. I would bet they would be more inclined to give up the catcher who is years away and could flame out at the higher levels and or Chace who has control problems. They also might want to try and give us Nori and or Burkholter who are also risky and further away. I would hold out for Miller or Crawford as they have plenty of high end tools and already proving themselves at the higher levels. I love Duran and would miss him terribly but the Twins need some new blood and a high end guy would make it worth giving up that golden arm which they won't be able to afford much longer anyway.
  2. Dman
    I was a pretty big Klein fan in 2023 and then in 2024 it looked like he needed something more to be more than just filler. He has had some tough games but the overall numbers do look really good at a pretty tough level. K9 has really improved and FIP and xFIP pretty much match his ERA so he is not getting lucky he just been good. If he is topping out at 97 all the better. If he can continue to dominate like this the Twins might have something.
  3. Dman
    I was really starting to doubt myself on the Rosario belief after all the swing and miss early in the season and a not great year last year. As noted by others he is really coming around after a slow start. AA is a huge jump no doubt about it but he was MVP of his league when at High A so I thought maybe he would handle it better\faster. Just like Schobel it looks like he is getting back to the hitter he was. I really gave up on Gonzalez last year. Thought he was way over hyped. I have kept waiting for him to stop "getting lucky", but it looks like he is just a really good hitter. He has been a doubles machine and his eye at the plate has really improved IMO and I think that is leading him to better pitches to drive. If he keeps this up the next couple of months he'll be in AAA. Nice to see Culpepper keep doing what he always does and seeing him already adding power to his game makes his future even brighter. He is a good low ball hitter, but he does chase down there as well. His defense looks really good the times I have watched him. Looks like a really nice pick the Twins made last year.
  4. Dman
    Yeah I agree with you on Serrano. The Twins DSL team currently has 4 players with OPS's over 1.000. Castillo (1.357), Taveras (1.126), Serrano (1.108) and Reyes (1.053). It's great to see so many bats doing really well at that level but we know from experience those number don't mean much. A few years back Mercedes and Rodriguez were putting up similar numbers and they have fallen pretty flat in A ball. Mercedes has done well at the FCL level which is no small feat but still is struggling at A ball. They are still young at 20 years old, but the shine is already off both players with Rodriguez out of the top 30 and Mercedes falling. It's not like we are asking for a lot just something approaching a .700 OPS would be nice, but a .500 and 600 OPS makes it hard to see them succeeding after their first two years in the states. Yep there's still time for them to turn things around, but it just shows how inflated those DSL numbers are compared to the competition they will face once they get over here. Granted I Would rather see the higher OPS's from those player's than lower OPS's, but as a measure of success we won't know much until they perform in A ball. Still a long way to go after that but if they conquer A ball at a relatively young age at least there is hope for a future. So yeah @DocBauer I hope they all keep it up all the way up.
  5. Dman
    Agreed. Happy to see his stats tank to some degree if he can gain a better K rate or manage more weak contact on his pitches. I think a good to great changeup would really make a difference but I wonder if the somewhat odd angle he throws at will tunnel well with that pitch. At any rate he needs to refine a few things. Not a lot as he is pretty successful with what he currently has, but at the MLB level you need to have some extra tricks up your sleave to throw at guys to get outs when you need them. Hopefully he finds that extra something that make him a difference maker.
  6. Dman
    I really only watched him pitch one game this year on MiLB and it was very early in the year. When the weather is so cold I tend not to put too much stock in anyone's performance. He had trouble finding the zone in that game which isn't that unusual in colder weather. Too many grooved pitches and I think he only lasted 3 innings in that one. Hard to take much from that game IMO. I saw him several times the year before and he was very efficient in most games I watched. Lot's of balls hit right at people and some quick innings especially at AA. When the balls in play end in outs he looks really good, but I also saw a couple of games where the balls find holes and he gave up a 4 run inning in one of those. Three straight singles before he got the first out, then a big double I believe. It happens to every pitcher, but I worry more with him since he seems to allow more contact than most pitchers I watch, well most good pitchers. His K rate while not terrible is lower than you would like to see and that seems to show up in games where he gives up more runs. Hitters do seem to struggle with the angle he creates with his pitches and that angle also seems to create weak contact at times. Still when they start to figure him out later in the game it seems like he gives up some awfully hard contact. Sometimes those are hit at people sometimes not. It feels like he needs a better mix it up pitch to keep hitters more off balance to me, but I am no expert just an observer. His performances seem very up and down to me. Some great games with no runs allowed and then others where he gives up a fair amount of runs. He looks close to being a 4th 5th type start at the MLB level, but it feels like be needs something more to me.
  7. Dman
    I don't disagree with plays not being called errors that should be. I have questioned plenty of those at the minor league level. Still I think there are concerning underlying numbers when you look at Morris. First would be K rate. It is lower than you would like at 19%. His WHIP is way to high for a starter. He has given up 75 hits in 60 innings pitched with another 20 walks to boot for a whopping 1.60 WHIP. That doesn't scream dominance to me. His ERA FIP and xFIP pretty much match which to me says this is pretty much who Andrew Morris is at his 4.40 ERA. Even last year with some better luck his ERA was 3.48 but FIP and xFIP 4.28 and 4.57. So unless changes are made he doesn't look like someone I would want to bring up to the MLB level this year unless absolutely forced to. He is just allowing too many balls to be put in play and odds are some of those are going to find holes or end in errors. I don't think Morris is a "bad" pitcher or that he isn't promising, but it sure seems like something needs to change before he takes the next step.
  8. Dman
    I agree with the article. If things stay the same through the deadline the Twins don't have much ability to take on more payroll and I don't think they have many assets worth trading that would solve the hitting issues they have. I think this is a guys in the room need to step up kind of thing. The brotherhood needs to produce or it will fall apart like last year. If they were to fall back it could be sellers deadline for the Twins as they have some interesting guys with just this year left. Have to wait and see, but most likely scenario is a quiet deadline.
  9. Dman
    It's a small sample but I have Hill as my number 1. Yeah it could and maybe should be Prielipp, but Hill is doing at 19 in A ball what Prielipp was doing for a short period of time at age 22 K'ing guys like crazy. They both are lefty's but I still see more projection and a higher ceiling for Hill since he is dominating at such a young age. You could argue that Prielipp is further along being at AA, but you could also argue Prielipp might never be a starter and might need to be a reliever since he hasn't made it through a full season healthy in his entire pro career and he is 24 now. Hill at least so far hasn't had those issue's and at least for now can be seen as a potential lefty starter. I just think that when you weigh things on the decision tree Hill comes out number 1 for me. Prielipp number 2. I like Soto a lot but I don't think that fastball is going to play. His control hasn't improved as much as I hoped this year either. He has a great thick body type for a pitcher, but from what I have seen so far he would be number 3 for me. McCleod might be number 4 for me with how well he has pitched this year with Culpepper right there with him. I've lost the shine on Morris. Not enough K's to be a rotation arm IMO. He is giving up a lot of solid contact too. If he can straighten that out I could move him higher. Bowan has had a good year but kind of like Varland he gives up too many HR's I see Bowan as a reliever when the time comes. It might be too small of sample size but I am sticking with Hill as my pick for now.
  10. Dman
    Nice writeup @DocBauer! really like Rozek too. I don't know if he has MLB potential or not, but for as bad as the pitching has generally been at AAA and AA you can usually count on Rozek to be some kind of stopper. I don't think he has plus stuff, but maybe there could be a crafty lefty role somewhere for him? I don't trust Sabato just yet, but it feels great to be able to say some positive things about him. Seeing him with a a nearly .400 OBP and 900 OPS makes you think they should give him a crack at AAA. We'll see if he slows down or not. I am pretty high on Diaw. I think he will grow into some more power and I agree with you that his athleticism makes him look like the #1 catcher prospect to me. Still has to throw more guys out, but everything else seems pretty well balanced. Would love to see a few more guys like him in the system.
  11. Dman
    That is some excellent analysis! Kudos on the comp. Hard to disagree with what those underlying numbers are telling us. I just feel like his his contact approach brings down those hard hit rates. Maybe it is just hope but I feel like he could develop Dozier pull side power. That might bring the average down, but I feel like he might be able to develop that. Otherwise as you stated it is going to be hard to distinguish between Eeles and a lot of other guys. At one point it looked like he had no shot and last year he showed he can play all they way to the AAA level. Hopefully he can keep it going, but other teams are going to be more ready for him. I want him to succeed so badly I might be blinded a bit, but I think he can show more power and I think that can give him the edge he needs to break in.
  12. Dman
    Agreed. Look at Ryan arguably our best pitcher and he only made it 5 innings against the Jays. Also if Festa gets killed the third time through the order it is going to tough to have him as a starting pitcher.
  13. Dman
    Yeah this is pretty close to my take as well. I don't see Eeles as a legit shortstop so that makes it harder for him to crack the roster. He is going to need to show the power and consistency he had last year to get his chance and it is way to early for that right now. The sample size was so small everywhere he went last year it is hard to say how good he is yet. Teams haven't had a crack at him a second third or fourth time through schedule to build a good book on how to defeat his approach. Like you I still love Eeles as a player and I think the potential is there for him to make the majors, but it is more likely as a second baseman or left fielder and so until he starts hitting for some power those spots look filled right now. His power, speed combo could make him a difference maker otherwise he looks like a lot of other guys at AAA. He can do it, but he is gonna have to earn it by showing out.
  14. Dman
    Was thinking the same about Sabato, but he did have a late start to the season. Not sure if that plays into why they haven't moved him. I thought with Ford gone he would move up for sure. He looks real good at the plate this year and with his age and experience I think they should move him sooner rather than later. I still question his ability to make it to MLB with so much in zone swing and miss, but he seems to have cleaned that up some so far this year. Time will tell if he has made enough adjustments to make it. Culpepper continues to impress. I know a few weeks doesn't really matter, but it would be nice to see him in AA right now. If he can do well there he could be on the Keaschal track.
  15. Dman
    I know I am an outlier but I have been on the sell train since they had the horrible start to the season. Granted they are right back in it but the holes on offense seem significant and while there is time for that to change if they do linger in no man's land I would try and trade everyone I have on a one year deal as they won't be resigning them anyway. I just hope guys like Paddack, Bader, Castro and France can have career years up to the deadline so that we can get some decent prospects in return. At this point in time I just don't see this team as "true" contender, I would go the Cleveland route and trade away guys and hope for better future returns. With as stacked as teams are these days the Twins need as much young talents coming up together as possible to get to the next level. I think some timely trades could help them longer term.
  16. Dman
    Hall is my draft crush this year. I just love guys with good to great defensive potential and speed. frame doesn't seem built for power so he could drop though seems to be in the top 15 in a fair number of mocks. There are going to be at least 6 really talented players to pick at 16. Not sure what bat the Twins will take, but I feel like if Laviolette falls I think they take him. They love power bats and don't seem to be afraid of swing and miss guys. I think he was predicted to go top 10 but seems to falling due to in zone swing and miss issues. I like college pitchers but when picking in the early rounds I like the High School arms better than college as the org gets to build the arm and I feel like in general the ceiling is higher. As you can tell I love, love the Hall pick and I like both arms as well. You do an excellent job of finding somewhat overlooked players IMO. I love the writeups keep them coming. Draft is almost here.
  17. Dman
    One of the main premises of the article was that Duran was going to cost the team 7M next year so adding salary much beyond that wouldn't really help the team payroll other than allocating more dollars to the hitting side. So spending more than what Duran would cost doesn't add up to helping out team payroll IMO. Maybe I misread the OP but I also thought we were talking longer than a deadline deal. I don't think you would trade your top bullpen arm with three years of control for a deadline pickup. I don't think I have seen that done before by a team contending for a playoff spot. If the Orioles don't think they can sign O'Hearn in the offseason I don't see the Twins getting that done. Same with Bregman. They would need a younger player with years of control as they don't have much room to add to payroll. With arb raises next year things are likely to get tighter again. I think it would be hard to execute a trade that would be a win, win especially payroll wise for Duran deal, but anything is possible if another team is interested enough.
  18. Dman
    I think the future financial reality is real, but if the Twins stick with Festa and and Matthews next year and you remove Paddacks salary they should easily be able to afford Duran at least another year. What he can do is pretty rare for a reliever and if I were the Twins I would try and keep the pen strong. I'm not sure what the Twins could get back as a hitter in a deal for Duran. If you are looking for a hitter with an OPS of .850 or above there are only 25 of those in all of baseball right now and I doubt teams would be trading any of them for Duran. Even the next 25 (top50) would take you down to a 800 OPS and most of those guys are stars on other teams. After that is a bit murky, but maybe you could pry someone loose but it almost has to be a younger guy with years left so that the Twins can afford him and is .750 to .780 OPS all that much better than what we currently have? For instance (just to cherry pick) would you trade Duran for an .800 OPS bat like Bader? I think it would be hard to line up on a trade that the Twins would like without going all the way down to prospects which could be pretty dangerous as there is the chance they never make that leap to MLB. and likely wouldn't help the team in near term. I get where this article is coming from but it seems like a lot of risk to take on for a top 5 to ten reliever in the game. Maybe there is a deal out there that would make good sense for both teams, but if it were me I would go at least one year with Duran and hopefully two years.,
  19. Dman
    The A's aren't a team full of good pitchers so not too surprised the Twins bats have broken out, but you still have to preform and good on the Twins for taking 3 straight so far. They are still hanging with the big boys so that's good.
  20. Dman
    Baker has been far better than I imagined he would be. I haven't really watched him pitch yet as I have kept waiting for him to regress, but I guess I will have to check him out. Far from young for the level, but wondering if there is enough there to be a pen arm at the MLB level. I just love how Rozak keeps his team in games. I kept hoping they would give him a pen role and see if he could crack MLB, but he appears to valuable eating innings in the minors. It isn't always pretty how he gets the job done, but more often than not he gets the job done. I watched MacCleod last year and wasn't all that impressed. I haven't watched him this year yet, but he seems to have improved his stuff. Could he be a future starting options at the MLB level. Sure would be nice if he could get to that level. Nice month by Lee. I just haven't been a fan as he gives up a lot of solid contact. Maybe he is turning a corner but with that low K rate I doubt it, It will be interesting to see how he does the rest of the way. If he has figured something out awesome, otherwise it feels like regression might be coming. Where are Morris, Lewis, Raya, and Culpepper on this list? They were going to be the next arm up for MLB. Culpepper has been injured and the rest apparently not up to the AAA challenge this year. For as tantalizing as Prielipp is he didn't make this list either. Those were the next five arms after Festa and Mathews on my list and they have been far from dominant so far this year. Other guys I had high on my secondary list like Langenburg, Hall, Oliveros, Bohorquez and Carpenter haven't done all that well this year either. I know the minors are all about development, but performance plays a part too. It's been a pretty disappointing year for arms at the minor league level for all the affiliates and the pitching pipeline. Here's to hoping things turn around next month for some of these arms.
  21. Dman
    Clearly the return would have to be decent for a trade to make sense, but I think the Twins should listen. They look like they might cling to wild card spot or might not. With the poor hitting I don't really see them as contenders. Sure anything can happen. You can beat 1 in 100 odds at some point, but it feels like a fair amount of missing pieces for a WS run. I am not a believer his arm will hold up in the second half and he won't be on the team next year so getting some assets seems wise to me. Same would go for Willie and anyone else on a one year deal that they don't plan to resign I'd trade my chips in to try and get stronger next year if it were me as I haven't been a big believer in this team as a WS contender as currently constructed. I know that is an incredibly pessimistic attitude to have, but if they can strike good deals I'd take that chance and since they have Festa and Zebby and SWR I think they can fill in OK if they could get something meaningful for Paddack. As some have noted I am not sure what that might do to the club house. I think it could have a negative affect hard to say. Trading with this team in wild card contention is a tough call, but for the right deal it could make sense.
  22. Dman
    I hear you on Rodriguez. He had a 560 OPS in April which is typically his slugging percentage not his OPS. Absolutely brutal numbers for a top prospect. Still in May he has redeemed himself with a .950 OPS which is more in line with top prospect status. Of course now he is hurt again as well so he still has that narrative. He typically has been a slow starter so I wouldn't have him out of the top 100 just yet. One cold month and one hot one and once he gets going he generally has been just fine the rest of the way unless injured. So we'll see.
  23. Dman
    A little surprised no mention of Hill for top 100 with his great K rate, very nice WHIP and while his FIP is little higher than you would like the ERA is a shiny 1.80. Only 20 innings pitched so likely too small a sample to get him top 100 love, but if can keep this going gotta believe he makes it. Pretty rare for a high school arm to come up in his his first pro year and be more dominant than most college arms.
  24. Dman
    There hasn't been a ton of posting about Diaw, but until fairly recently there hasn't been much to go on. In some ways it was a bit of a slow start to the season for him. Lot's of singles and a fair amount of walks, but no power. His defense hasn't been great but not horrible either. It wasn't until he recently tapped into some power and moved his OPS up that people started to take notice. A week or two ago I mentioned in a post that both Diaw and Culpepper were worthy of being bumped to AA. If room you could put DeBarge in there as well and Baez. Cedar Rapids is in the hunt for a playoff spot being just behind Quad Cities so the Twins might slow play it a little bit (less than a Month) until half the year is over before moving them up. Diaw is the most athletic catcher I have seen the Twins pick in a long time and it is starting to look like he can hit as well. Probably no hurry to move him but the sooner he can handle AA the sooner he can be an option at the Major league level. It feels like he has a ways to go defensively as well, but this is only his first year so to be expected. A lot of baseball left and catchers get dinged up so it is hard to keep their numbers up. I don't think I would have him on my top 100 list, but he could fit in the top ten for the Twins. There is a fair bit of competition for those top ten spots though so he could be just outside it as well. It seemed like the Twins thought he was a steal in the 3rd round and so far it looks like they might be right. He was injured a fair amount in college so more of a projection pick. We'll know more once he gets to AA.
  25. Dman
    Yeah I did the same thing. they clawed back to give me hope down just 4 to 3 but after Sands gave up the runs that was enough for me to be done. It doesn't happen often but they came back against a very good closer. Will have to watch the highlights, but that was impressive. Hope they keep hitting well.
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