Dman

Yeah 7 years is a long time to control a player. Granted the first year or two is generally an adjustment to MLB but 7 years plus all the minors work is a long time to control a player. I know it was done for small market teams but the young player are being robbed of some the most marketable years of their careers. I think there has to be a change at least 6 years max not 7.

I don't disagree but he isn't seen as a top prospect on any boards. Technically he shouldn't be dismissed but it seems most all sites see his age as a problem and in essence he seems to have become a non prospect with prospect status. His K rate is often cited as a concern as well an issues recognizing breaking balls. While it is a SSS given how well he did when he came up it all seems a bit overblown. He is simply likely seeing the Arreaz affect. Deemed to have too many physical defects (slow, below average arm, likely below average defense) to be a good prospect only to become a good or great MLB player.

Thanks for this! Seems a bit harsh though. Law thinks he literally has no power pull side? Seems pretty negative to me but I am guessing there is data behind it. Despite this apparent fatal flaw he was still a better batter than most everyone else in the FSL? Sorry Keith not buying what you are selling just yet. The athlete part we already knew as that is why Larnach dropped as far as he did and signed for less than slot. At best he ends up average for defense which is in line with what I had been hearing. So with no defensive upside the bat has to be special and Law thinks it won't be special enough thus the drop. It is a reason and most of us on this board wonder why the Twins are so fascinated with 1st base\Left field lumbering players. Well it is something for Larnach to work on. We should know more after this year.

Technically you are right it doesn't matter. Larnach is going to make it to MLB no matter what Law thinks and being in the top 100 doesn't really mean anything. It is just that Law is a respected voice and it seems odd for him to diminish what Larnach has done and keep him off the top 100. It is surprising so I think we are all interested in what his reasoning is. He is in line with every other prospect in Minnesota's system except Larnach, why? For me someone who follows prospects it doesn't make sense. Maybe he has some good reasons. Maybe Larnach is 101 on his list. Maybe he just likes some other players potential more after all after the top 10 to 20 it often comes down to preference. If I had to guess I think he feels Larnach's potential is tapped out right now at that 800 OPS mark and he see's a good player but not a great one but I am curious as to why he feels that way. Aren't you?

Yeah you go back and look at their stats and they both did well but until 2019 Kirilloff is the hands down winner. Kirilloff had an amazing 2018 with a 999 OPS in A ball and 943 OPS in A+. While Larnachs numbers are nothing to sneeze at he was 100 points lower at those two levels with an 878 OPS in A ball and an 843 in high A and I believe he was older than Kirilloff when hitting at those levels. 100 points of OPS is pretty significant and IIRC there was an article talking about opposing teams having their pitchers try to throw more breaking stuff to Kirilloff and trying to trip him up in certain counts because they couldn't get him out. I think that was when he was in A ball with that 999 OPS. So he was feared by other teams not sure Larnach has that kind of reputation. So maybe that is why Law see's his bat as so special. The thing is that 2019 while at High A there didn't appear to be a better hitter in that entire league than Larnach so that is nothing to sneeze at. He took home league MVP honors so his bat was better than a lot of other players. While I might not have them back to back I still think Larnach deserves the top 100 and he is there in the MLB top 100 at number 80. I guess Law doesn't see superstar there. Maybe he is too vanilla for him. I think in the end he will wish he had a do over on this one though.

Law will be wrong about Larnach. Larnach was the Florida State leagues MVP a League notoriously hard for hitters and good for pitchers. He might not be great defensively as I haven't seen or heard much about his defense but he is going to hit and he wouldn't be the Twins third ranked prospect if he "wasn't that good". It's either an oversight or a bias Law has for Larnach. FWIW fans always over hype their own prospects because they generally are the only ones they follow or know much about. Law can be ruthlessly objective and not swayed by industry opinion as his lists are often quite different from others. He is not always right and he generally has good insight into why he ranks players where he does. Sometimes he is right, sometimes wrong. Prospects change as they move up levels. Some bust and some that were oversights make it. Potential is not an exact science.

Thanks for doing the honorable mentions as it is nice to see who was close to making the list. FWIW I agree with most of those. I like where you put Solarie as a fair number of analysts were not sure the bat would translate and at best he would be an average defender in Left or second base. I think he is too high on the other lists but maybe he will prove me wrong I know Jeffers did. While I agree with what you said about Windor and he placed about the same on MLB's prospect list I think you might be short selling him. Lot's of reports of improved velocity and a legitimate change up. I think he OK at this level but there is reason to bump him up as well. I think you have Andrade placed about right but many analysts see him moving over to third and he has the power stroke to be fine there. Nice list I like it.

I am surprised he has Lewis that low. I guess everybody is down on his hit tool. I bet if Balazovic had pitched more innings he would be even higher on the list. Law never gave any love to Rooker as he felt he was too old to be a real prospect IIRC. He also was the low man on Larnach as well. Fangraphs is the big believer in Larnach. I think Law will be proven wrong there though. He was also low on Berrios not coming around until much later than other boards. He was one of the only guys to come out low on Gonsalves early and it appears he was right on that one. He always has an interesting take and is willing to step outside the box on players which is refreshing.

If they are not picking someone else up then they will have to depend on the young arms to be productive because injuries happen to pitchers all the time. Thorpe and Smeltzer did not look ready last year and Duran and Balazovic are likely on innings limits this year so if the Twins do have injuries we could be in trouble. Hopefully they can bring in one more vet just in case. I am guessing the reason for one year deals is they plan to use Duran, Balazovich and or Canterino next year? Pineda and Happ could be gone next year and we don't know how Randy will do with a full season so there will most likely be plenty of room.

Nice to see 3 solid pitchers that appear to have four solid pitches and decent velocity to go with them. It feels like it has been a long time since I could get excited about so many pitchers in the top 10. That being said Enlow has been far from dominant in most of his time with the Twins. Granted he has been young for every level and bumped his number to respectable in A ball for half the year. I am a little nervous about him as a starter but since he will only be 22 to start the year he has time to refine things. Here's to hoping the time off helped him get ready for 2021 Been hearing some good things about Canterino although scouts still don't love his delivery or his body type for starting. Floor should elite reliever though. If he can stay healthy he looks like mid rotation starter. Haven't seen one of those in the system since Berrios so that's nice. Balazovich has pretty much been a stud the past two years(2018,19). K rate has been there as he has been a K machine during that time. He hasn't been all that streched out though so hard to say if he would hold up during a full season or not. His numbers look absolutely dominant though. If he keeps this up he has to be a top of the rotation arm just has to be. Cavaco was a high risk pick. He is a tooled up player with the possibility to be a 5 tools player, but his hit tool was his weakest tool and that is not a good tool to be weak. The Twins had to be believers that they can develop him with the coaches they have and the skill Cavaco has. Time will tell if that was good decision or not. Sabato was a good pick for where they got him and he has most all the traits the Twins love in hitters. Hard hit rate, check. Good eye at the plate, check. HR in game power, check. Good swing, check. The tough thing is he likely is a defensive liability anywhere you play him, check. He could be a fast mover but to where with Kirilloff and Larnach likely already in the outfield and Sano and Rooker at 1st base someone is going to have get traded to fit him in. Twins do have a nice top 10 though.

If you are a team planning on the post season seasoned veterans matter. They are a known quantity so easier to predict production. If the price is right I think Marwin does make sense. Let Travis play everyday at AAA and if he is mashing bring him up. I just think Blankenhorn could use more seasoning and would be better served not having to worry about the pressure to perform when he has only been at the AA level for a short period of time Also he wouldn't be playing everyday in MLB so that could hurt his development. I really think he needs another season of MiLB ball to prove he is ready for the show. I certainly could be persuaded that Blankenhorn is the answer now but my gut says best to wait.

In prospect lists it is generally all about potential. Potential is different than fulfilling potential which is an actual realized skill. And that is why my choice for number one would be Lewis. Lewis still has the potential to be a 5 tool player and given Kirilloff's physical traits he has no chance to best Lewis there. While Kiriilofs elite hit tool carries him and elite offense is the most coveted trait for position players in baseball his average arm, below average speed and likely below average defense does drag his value down. Lewis is essentially elite at multiple positions none more important than shortstop a scarce resource to be sure especially for five tool players. Unfortunately his hit tool looks suspect and with all that movement seems unlikely to be elite and certainly likely never as good as Kirillof's will be. The thing is though we don't know yet where Lewis's hit tool will land. How close will his ultimate production be from Kirillof's? We don't know and there is potential for his tool to improve so with potential in mind there is no question in my mind that Lewis would remain number 1.

Not sure what to think of Simmons in decline but we desperately needed a player with his skill set on this team so this was a good get. Was dreaming on Semien but that would have been high price to pay for one year. Glad the FO finally recognized that Polanco was not a great defensive fit at short and getting something done. Lewis can't be ready fast enough if you ask me. I sure hope he can fix that swing as we need him sooner rather than later.

I know Colina has moved up prospect lists and is pretty high on those lists for a reliever but I am kind of worried about that hittable fastball in MLB. He throws hard and if he can hit his spots that might be enough to make him a good to elite reliever. I have to believe the Twins are banking on him somewhat this year given the bullpen turnover. The slider does appear elite and I assume that is why he is ranked as high as he is. I hope he is the real deal because we could use more power arms. I wasn't a fan of the Wallner pick as there was good pitching prospects where they drafted him and he is another slow Power over hit tool player. The Twins seem to be enamored with hard hit rate for players and Wallner fits the bill with easy power so I see why he was picked. Hard to know how well he will do but good luck cracking an outfield that will likely have Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Rooker and maybe Arraez or Polonco already in it. Super excited about Urbina and he had a good year in the DSL. Obviously a long way to go but very nice traits for success. Will know more once he plays more. Rooker did better at the MLB level than I thought he would but they will start throwing him the junk he hates so hopefully he has an answer. Celestino had his one big half year and we don't know if hecan or will carry that forward with the bat. It was between him and Baddoo if you ask me and so I hope that bat turns out because Baddoo will end up hitting for power so he needs to work out now more than ever. It is nice to have another good defensive centerfielder not too far away. He has lots of skills to dream on and hopefully he maxes out his potential.

Not that I really know anything about him but on paper I didn't care for the De Andrade pick. He was the only IFA signed that high with essentially average tools across the board except power as he is projected to have above average power. I know he is only 16 and things change for all of those guys but so many in that range were starting as five tool players it wouldn't hurt this org to have some guys who can run. Always loved Miranda's hit tool and still do. I just wish he was able to be more selective at the plate and wait to make contact on better pitches for him to hit. As the Turtle has shown hitting everything helps with strike outs but hitting stuff out of the zone generally leads to outs as well. If he can fix that we might have an actual young 3rd baseman. I really enjoyed box score watching Sands in 2019. The WHIP was low, the K rate there and a strong ERA was the end result. He just went after guys. Threw strikes and dared the batter to hit it. If he continues to be that kind of pitcher I think the Twins have something. If he regresses then likely reliever material this is a big year for him and with the layoff hard to say how things go out of the gate but I hope the guy from 2019 shows up in 2021.

I think the primary reason for pessimism is his injured knee and his knees in general. I think he will always be good at the plate but how healthy will be throughout a season? I think he will likely miss chunks of time every season. I still like him but I can understand the pessimism as injured players generally don't perform as well as they compensate for the injury. If can stay healthy the bandwagon will be large.

I am just happy to see them spending money on pitching. They need to sign or trade for another pitcher. The young guys are coming but best to break them in slow. We have room a for few more guys lets go getem.

Happy to see they went heavy on infielders this year. With Wander floundering and the uncertainty of Lewis at short and how his bat will play there aren't as many options as the Twins have for outfielders. We haven't developed a good this third baseman since Koskie so hopefully they shore the infield up in the coming years. They also could use more pitching. Here's to hoping there is a Tatis in there somewhere.

I remember him being hyped and then getting to the Bigs and becoming very hittable. He wasn't the same pitcher when called up. He really struggled to get outs. Honestly I don't understand why the Twins gave him the short hook but he didn't really prove them all that wrong as he never did make it as a starter. They probably should have given him a shot in the pen but must have felt differently at the time. I am happy he found his way to elite status. He never gave up on himself and his hard work paid off. Good for him.

Wow, the Padres are all in. Pitching was there only weakness and barring injury they look poised to try and take over the Dodgers. I still don't feel like the padres have great depth but if they stay healthy look out. They just might be the best team out there. I like the Twins and I know emotion makes me over react but it just feels like we are second tier compared to the top 4 to 6 teams in baseball. Injuries and young players on the rise can change things but it takes a strong core of above average players to make it anywhere in the playoffs these days. Kudos to the Padres for winning the offseason now they need good health to make it all work.

I was pretty excited when the Twins got Vallimont in that trade. His 2019 numbers looked pretty good to me. throws mid 90's has good K rate and WHIP. Granted he was only in High A but the numbers looked solid to me. I was really hoping to see if he improve on those number or at least keep them the same as he moved up but 2020 was lost season for everyone. I liked getting a chance to see what he had to say about his approach to pitching and happy to hear he liked the how the Twins were handling their pitchers. Here's to hoping he is starter material and reaches his potential.

Pretty cool guy and very nice interview. I have to say I wasn't sure why the Twins grabbed him where they did as it looked like he kept the ball in the zone but was pretty hittable. So developing a good mix and pitches that can better miss bats will be important for him to succeed. Personality wise I can see the attraction though. He seems to be an easy going, bright kid with a great knowledge of the body with a good pitchers build. He is a nice piece of clay to mold. I am rooting for him to reach his highest potential. Thanks for sharing!

Can I just say I am happy the Twins did not make a roster clogging Rule V pick this year. I have a feeling we will need the roster flexibility so am happy their won't be a player in the way.

So I guess you were right and I was way wrong on this one. Baddoo was a highly rated prospect and one my favorites from that draft class but he seems like he might end up a left fielder and is that something most teams need to invest in Rule V picks? Left field is a position you can run almost anyone out with a decent bat and have them play there. If he truly is a quality center fielder then this pick makes more sense as there is not as much pressure on the bat he has good plate discipline so could be valuable if he stays there. The thing is for the Twins is that we already have a ton of quality outfield prospects with more on the way. Certainly cannot keep them all. I guess Baddoo is one that will no longer be around unless the Tigers give him back. Wells had a good year a couple of years ago but can you tell me why a team would pick him over a lot of other guys that looked to have better potential. He was not even a top 30 prospect. I haven't seen him pitch since he came back but is he really that good or do the O's just want to see him up close? If he is that good he has a great chance to get to MLB with the O's so happy for him. I just didn't see it coming though, but I guess you have a much better handle on who would be targeted than I do.

Yeah bummer on Baddoo. There's a lot of things to like there and if the Tigers need a backup center fielder he could be gone for good. I still think with the arm issues he ends up in left field but we will see. I guess they will check out that hit tool first hand and see if he is worth carrying for a whole season. He would have to contribute to make it worth it.