Richie the Rally Goat

This offseason has been nothing short of unprecedented. It started with the 23-year-old sensation Shohei Ohtani deciding to leave Japan for the MLB, two years before he was eligible to sign without the International Free Agency restrictions. Then it was followed up with two months of absolute standstill for many of the top free agents. So, how could this season’s free agent market potentially cause Yu Darvish to sign for a lot less money than the six years and $160MM that MLB Trade Rumors had originally predicted? Let’s take a look.
 
In years past, the available marquee free agents were almost exclusively signed by the richest teams in baseball. In fact, 9 of the 20 richest contracts in MLB history were signed by either the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox. However, as MLB front offices are starting to get smarter, they are starting to learn that these big time free agent contracts are almost never worth it in the long run. As a result, teams are starting to shift their focus towards lower tier free agents that they can sign to short term, and more reasonably priced contracts, like relievers.
 
Another factor that will cause Darvish’s value to drop is the luxury-tax system. While MLB does not have salary cap like many other U.S. sports leagues do, they do have a luxury-tax that disincentivizes teams from spending frivolous amounts of money on free agents. As teams go further and further above the luxury-tax threshold, and as the number of years they spend above the threshold increases, so to does the amount that the teams are taxed. This is causing many of the top spending teams, who have spent the last few years above the luxury-tax threshold, to want to cut back on spending and get below it in 2018. As a result, these teams are choosing to take a pass on players like Darvish.
 
Major League Baseball has seen a stretch of extreme parity over the past half-decade, with 26 of the 30 teams having made a playoff appearance since 2011, along with traditional bottom dwellers, like the Royals, becoming World Series contenders. However, over the past year or two, the MLB has seen a real shift from a league filled with parity, to apparent “super teams” atop each division. The reasons for this are many, and I won’t go into details why in this post. So how does all of this impact Yu Darvish? Well, I have already touched on why many of the teams at the top aren’t looking to add Darvish, but now with this power separation, many teams are opting to go with a rebuilding strategy as opposed to signing free agents. This takes even more teams out of the running, that might have otherwise made a run at competing in 2018, and thus looking to sign Darvish.
 
So, who does this all leave that would be interested in signing Darvish? Well, it was reported that Yu Darvish has narrowed his list of teams down to six. These teams are the Rangers, Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and of course the Twins.
 
Let’s look at the five other teams remaining that are competing with the Twins for Yu Darvish’s services. Saturday night, the Astros made a trade to acquire Pirates starter Gerrit Cole. With this move, it all but fills out the Astros’ rotation with Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Lance McCullers Jr. as their 1-4, followed by quality starters in Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh competing for the 5th spot. This all but takes them out of the running for Yu Darvish.
 
Additionally, the Dodgers and Yankees are teams that are looking to stay below the $197MM luxury-tax threshold in 2018. As it stands, their projected 2018 salaries are $191MM and $172MM respectively. This means that signing Darvish will put the Dodgers well beyond the luxury-tax, and limits the Yankees to less than $25MM in average annual value (AAV) on Darvish’s contract in order to stay below. Doing so would leave the Yankees with no margin to play with if they need to sign or trade for another player throughout the season, which means they are probably out unless his value drops down below $20MM in AAV. The Rangers are also a team that have said that they are looking to cut payroll in 2018. While their motives to do so might not be luxury-tax related, their desire to do so makes it hard to see Darvish making a reunion with the team that originally signed him out of Japan in 2012.
 
This just leaves the Chicago Cubs, who are looking to replace 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta. The Cubs have also expressed an interest in staying below the luxury-tax, but given their roughly $30MM in space to work with, and the fact that they were below the luxury-tax in 2017, their incentives to stay below aren’t as great as the Dodgers and Yankees are. This most likely makes the Cubs the greatest competition that the Twins have for Darvish. While the Cubs could easily get into a bidding war with the Twins, and push his salary closer to the $30MM AAV range, I don’t see them doing so for a couple of reasons. The first is this would leave them with little to no room to work with in 2018 for any other additions if they wish to stay below the luxury-tax. The second, is they have shown interest in a potential reunion with Arrieta. If the price for Darvish gets too high, they could easily put their focus on bringing back Arrieta.
 
With all of that being said, this is great news for the Twins. Not only does it increase their chances of actually signing Yu Darvish, but they might be able to do so without having to break the bank. There is also a slight chance that they might be able to land Darvish on a five-year deal as opposed to a six or seven-year deal. This would be great for the Twins, as he would come off of the Twins books after his age 35 season. In the end, I see Darvish signing either a five or six-year deal, in the $115MM-$135MM range, a far cry from the six years and $160MM that was originally projected.

This article was originally posted back in January, but with Mauer's 2000th hit Tom wanted various Mauer articles. I haven't changed much, but have added more data to support my opinion. I'd also just like to mention that I did not change my opinion on a potential salary for 2019 and beyond despite his torrid start to the season.
 
It's no secret that Joe Mauer is entering the final year of his 8 year, $184 million contract extension signed in 2010. It's also not a secret that Mauer isn't the player he was in 2009 or in the years leading up to that MVP season. What does seem to be a secret, is what thoughts "Falvine" has on Mauer's future past the 2018 season. There are really only three options, which I will breakdown below.
 
1. Stay with the Twins
Personally, I think this is the most likely scenario. He's from here, his family is here, he's spent his entire career here, his personality and demeanor (although frustrating to fans) fits well with the "Minnesota nice" mantra, and the Twins are starting to become contenders. So what will it take for the Twins to keep him here?
 
Since his move to 1st base (2012) Mauer has played 813 games as a first basemen, which is good for 13th most among 50 qualified players. In that same time he has provided a 14.7 WAR which is good for 10th best:
The "good": he's staying healthier, he's getting on base (6/50 in BA and 5/50 in OBP), and he's become one of the best defensive 1B in the game (#1 in UZR in 2017 among 21 qualified players).
The "bad": he'll be 36 in April of 2019 (only 6 qualified players were 36+ years old in '17), he provides no power as a 1B/DH (42/50 in SLG from 2012-2017), despite being healthier he's still good to miss at least 20 games/year not including the days provides no defensive value as a DH.

I think it's fair to assume that 2017 is the ceiling of what we can expect from Mauer in 2018 and beyond, although he has been lights out so far this season. Looking at salaries for players who are currently 36+ years old, 2017 and 2018 contract agreements, and salaries of other 1B around the league I would be looking for the Twins to give Mauer a 2-3 year deal at $8-$10 million/year not including incentives or player/team options. Again, I believe him signing with the Twins is the most likely scenario.
 
I came up with the $8 - $10 million range from looking at the following data.
 
Yonder Alonso signed with the Indians for $8mil per year. Comparatively to Mauer, he provides a little more power, less OBP, and a lot less defense. He's younger, coming off a career year, and also fits the "launch angle" ideal that so many hitters are trending towards. Ultimately, my opinion is that the pros and cons of both players provide a similar value to a team although the type of value they provide are different. I think that provides a sort of base line going into next offseason.
 
I also looked at players that signed in 2016/2017 offseason who were 36+ years old and although the median salary was 7.75 million a few of those guys are getting paid $13 & $16 million.If I were to include 35+ year olds, which is technically how old Mauer will be at the start of the 2019 season, the median is at $8 million and includes Yadier Molina (a career long Cardinal) getting paid $20 million. Although the median is lower, I think the higher deals give Mauer/Shapiro some room to negotiate an above the median salary. Especially if Mauer performs similarliy to how he did in 2017 and/or is able to hit like he currently is for a majority of 2018.
2. Sign Elsewhere
I don't see this happening, but obviously this is a possibility. Assuming Mauer only has a few more years in the big leagues, he could be looking for a team to win now. Now being 2019 or 2020. Depending on what the Twins FO does in free agency over the next couple years the Twins may or may not be legit world series contenders in 2019 or 2020. I hate to say it but with Greg Bird not being able to stay healthy the Yankees may have an opening at first base that would be a good fit for Mauer. Teams like Houston, Boston, Chicago (NL), Dodgers, Indians and Nationals are also obvious contenders, but currently have a player who is under contract at 1st base.
3. Retire
From what I have read/heard, there hasn't been any rumblings that Mauer is ready to hang them up. Doesn't mean it's not something to consider. Honestly, I almost think Joe would be more apt to retire than he would be to sign somewhere else. Moving somewhere else obviously would mean either moving his family or moving away from his family, which I don't think he would want to do.

It's too early for this.
 
It's too early to be looking at which of the hundreds of minor leaguers currently a part of the Minnesota Twins organization might take the field at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Cedar Rapids this summer.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LewisWatkins17-600x400.jpg
Tommy Watkins is moving up to AA Chattanooga to manage in 2018, but Royce Lewis could be back in Cedar Rapids to start the new season (Photo: SD Buhr)
 
It's definitely too early to get excited about the possibility of seeing the most promising group of prospects in Cedar Rapids since, perhaps, the class of 2013 (which included Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios and more) in the first year of the Kernels/Twins affiliation era.
 
Still, since it's been minus-10 degrees or so all day and I've had nothing else to do but watch a bunch of bowl games I generally don't care about at all, I'm going to share my excitement here anyway.
 
Even as the 2017 was winding down, I found myself taking mental inventory of which members of the playoff-bound Kernels might be starting 2018 in Cedar Rapids, as well. Then I started looking at the talent that was on the field for Elizabethton's Appalachian League champion club and projecting a few that were likely to get their first exposure to full-season minor league ball with the Kernels in 2018
 
All of that informal mental note-making left me feeling pretty optimistic that the Twins would send a pretty competitive group to Cedar Rapids this spring.
 
The Kernels have qualified for the Midwest League postseason in each of the five seasons that Cedar Rapids has been affiliated with the Twins and it was fine to feel pretty good about that streak continuing in 2018.
 
But then it happened.
 
A box arrived in the mail over this past weekend and inside was the 2018 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook.(Click here to get your copy.)
 
I should have just glanced through it to make sure my name was spelled correctly everywhere I was given a photo credit, then set it aside for a few weeks until we were at least getting closer to the date when pitchers and catchers report for spring training in Florida (which is the date I unofficially consider the baseball season to begin each year).
 
But knowing how much work the authors - Seth Stohs, Cody Christie and Tom Froemming - put into writing the Handbook and how packed with great content about every Twins minor league affiliate and literally every minor league player currently under contract to the Twins, well, just giving the book a glance through was something I couldn't limit myself to.
 
So I started reading. The authors have some great articles in there, reflecting not only their knowledge of the Twins organization, but their writing skills, as well. I probably should have just read those feature articles and, perhaps, about their selections for Twins Minor League Hitter, Starting Pitcher and Relief Pitcher of the Year Awards. (All three are Kernels alums, by the way.)
 
But that wasn't enough. Not when we're in the middle of a several-day stretch of sub-zero temperatures.
 
I give myself some credit, though. I didn't read EVERY one of the player features in their entirety. It's far too early in the year to do that.
 
No, I only read the features of those players that the authors suggested have some chance of playing ball for the Kernels in 2018.
 
I think there were about 60 of them. That may seem like a lot, given teams are limited to a 25-man roster, but it's really only a little bit more than the 50 or so that you might typically see come through any MWL roster in any given season.
 
Still, not all of them will wear Kernels uniforms this season. They mentioned 28, I think, that have played for the Kernels already that may return. That would be unusual. Some of those will start the season with a promotion to Ft. Myers, some could be injured or traded during spring training and some, unfortunately, could be released by the Twins before the season starts. That's just the harsh reality of professional baseball.
 
But many of the players who WILL be coming to Cedar Rapids, either to start the season or as replacements during the course of the summer, have some very impressive backgrounds and credentials.
 
The Kernels could feature not one, but two first-round draft choices.
 
Shortstop Royce Lewis, who was the first overall pick of the 2017 MLB amateur draft, spent most of the last month of the 2017 season with the Kernels and likely will start the 2018 season in Cedar Rapids as well. He could well be joined by the Twins' 2016 first round pick, outfielder Alex Kirilloff, who had been expected to spend time with the Kernels last year, but missed the entire 2017 season following elbow surgery.
 
Of course, both Lewis and Kirilloff got big signing bonuses as top draft picks, but they aren't likely to be the only million+ dollar bonus babies to put on Kernels uniforms in 2018.
 
While Lewis is likely to see a mid-season promotion if his play develops as we'd expect it to, the Twins have another millionaire shortstop ready to step into his shoes - and position - with the Kernels. Wander Javier got $4 million to sign as an International Free Agent in 2015.
 
A couple of teenaged pitchers could eventually find their ways to Cedar Rapids, though are perhaps less likely to start the season there. The Twins' 2017 second and third round draft picks, Blayne Enlow and Landon Leach, each got bonuses in excess of a million dollars to sign with the Twins, rather than play college ball.
 
While he didn't get it from the Twins, catcher David Banuelos also got a million dollars to sign with the Mariners as their 2017 third round pick. He was acquired by the Twins in December.
 
If Banuelos is assigned to Cedar Rapids, the Kernels could potentially have quite an impressive 1-2 punch behind the plate, since it would not be surprising to see Ben Rortvedt (who signed for $900,000 as the Twins' 2nd round pick in 2016) also return to start the season.
 
In addition to Rortvedt, seven additional likely (or at least potential) 2018 Kernels pulled down signing bonuses of between $400,000 and $900,000, Those include some pretty heralded prospects such as outfielder Akil Baddoo and infielder Jose Miranda, both of which were "Compensation B" round (between 2nd and 3rd rounds) selections by the Twins in 2016.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Rortvedt2017d-600x400.jpg
Twins 2nd round draft pick in 2016 Ben Rortvedt could well begin 2018 behind the plate for Cedar Rapids. (Photo: SD Buhr)
 
Of course, signing bonuses aren't what matter the most once these guys get on the field. No matter what you got paid, what matters is what you do between the lines when you get a chance. Still, when you're looking at young players with limited professional experience to base judgements on, bonus money and draft position are simple means of projecting the level of talent any particular roster might consist of.
 
In addition to those already listed, the 2018 Kernels roster could include, at some point:
Two 4th round picks (pitcher Charlie Barnes - 2017, and third baseman/outfielder Trey Cabbage - 2015, both of whom spent time with the Kernels in 2017) and a 5th rounder (third baseman Andrew Bechtold).
Six-figure International Free Agent signees like pitcher Jose Martinez ($340K in 2013) and catcher Robert Molina ($300K in 2013)
Nine additional players drafted by the Twins in the top 10 rounds of drafts between 2014 and 2017,

That is a lot of potential. And it doesn't even include Edwar Colina, who was the Appalachian League Pitcher of the Year last season.
 
Are you beginning to see why I'm getting excited for the season to start already? I mean, if you're Toby Gardenhire, the recently announced new manager for the Kernels, you have to feel pretty good about the talent level that you're going to have to work with in your first year as a manager in professional baseball, don't you?
 
Of course, the fun thing is that, even with all of these "prospects" on their way to Cedar Rapids, we know that there will be several guys not found on anyone's "prospect lists" that will grab hold of their opportunity to play baseball for a few dollars and show everyone they can play the game every bit as well as the guys getting all the attention... and money.
 
It happens every season and it will happen this year, too.
 
Cedar Rapids hasn't won a Midwest League title since Bengie Molina caught 45 games for the 1994 Kernels. No, that's not as long as the drought the Twins have endured since their 1991 World Series championship, but it's long enough.
 
So pardon me if I get spend a few of these cold January days daring to get excited about Kernels baseball in 2018.
 
If that's wrong, just blame Seth, Cody and Tom. That's what I usually do.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)

Eddie Rosario has always been a polarizing player for me. In his first extended stint with the Twins in 2015, he showed flashes of a really exciting all round game. He was a good base runner (4.7 runs above average), a solid defender (2.2 runs above average), and clobbered 13 home runs in his age 23 season. Rosario had excelled throughout 5 minor league destinations, and was noted for having an exceptionally quick bat and hands. There were a few major problems. Rosario struck out a lot (25% in 2015, compared to a league average 21%) and he rarely walked. Like, ever. In 2015 Rosario walked just 15 times in 474 plate appearances, good for a BB% of just 3.2%, well below the league average of 8.1%. Taken together, Rosario’s strikeouts and inability to take a walk amounted to cripplingly poor plate discipline.
 
In 2016 some of the aspects of Rosario’s game which made him exciting disappeared. His base running regressed marginally in 2016, and majorly in 2017. His defense went from good in 2015, to acceptable in 2016, to pretty bad in 2017 (-6.2 runs above average), a dip not often discussed in the Twins heralded ‘nothing falls but raindrops’ outfield, which should be renamed to reflect the fact that anyone not named Byron Buxton is actually a poor to average defensive outfielder.
 
Rosario’s regression and streaky hitting were so infuriating that it led to discussion about whether he would be the odd man out in the Twins up and coming outfield moving forwards, with Buxton spectacular, Kepler solid, and Zack Granite pushing for playing time with an impressive season at Rochester. Throughout his first two seasons, Rosario had shown little progress in his plate discipline, leading folks to voice the possibility that he had hit his ceiling. Enter James Rowson.
 
If Pat Shurmur is the MVP of the Vikings this season, Rowson deserves the same plaudits for his work with Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario in 2017. In researching Rowson, two things seem to stand out about his approach with the young core of Twins hitters; firstly, he wants players to have a high comfort level in taking ownership of their own swings, secondly, he’s keenly aware of the strengths and weaknesses of hit hitters and publicly pushes those buttons. After a game against the White Sox, Rowson named Rosario the player of the game, despite going 0-4, crediting him for helping teammates see more pitches from Jose Quintana which eventually allowed them to force him from the game.
 
Rosario’s numbers from 2017 are a testament to Rowson’s work. He increased his BB% to just under 6%, taking 23 more walks than he did in 2016. Rosario’s OBP jumped almost 30 points, despite a 26 point decrease in his BaBIP from 2016 to 2017. The main cause for this increased ability to get on base? Rosario was significantly more selective with his swings in 2017. He dropped his O-Swing % (the percentage of time he swings at pitches outside the strike zone) from 42% to 37%. This decreased his overall SwStr% around 5% and led to a significantly increased Contact% (percentage of the time a hitter makes contact when swinging at all pitches). Overall, Rosario wasn’t swinging at significantly less pitches, he’s swinging at significantly more hittable ones, leading to a spike in home runs, walks, and isolated power.
 
Entering his final pre-arbitration year in 2018 Rosario will need to keep his improved offensive output going to offset other diminishing skill sets. If Rosario can continue to build upon his improved plate discipline in 2018, he could finish the season as one of the more offensively productive outfielders in the American league.

With the Minnesota Twins currently in the middle of the off-season and getting prepared for Pitchers and Catchers to report to Fort Myers, FL in 49 Days. I wanted to jump ahead to the highly anticipated 2018 Free Agent Class. It appears that the 2017 has been underwhelming for most with the consensus that the Twins seem to be preparing to "Make Their Run" in 2019.
 
The Twins Free Agents will include Joe Mauer ($23 Mil), Brian Dozier ($9 Mil), Eduardo Escobar ($2.5 Mil), Fernando Rodney ($4.5 Mil w/ club option for 2019). These four players will represent roughly $39 Mil possibly coming off the books for the organization. Not taking into consideration players the Twins are looking to possibly extend contracts with (Buxton, Sano, Berrios). Lets dive into what the 2019 Minnesota Twins could look like (or what I would like the 2019 Twins to look like). Note that I don't believe we should re-sign any of our free agents to-be (Dozier, Escobar & Mauer) or exercise our club options (Rodney).
 
Starting Pitchers:
1. Ervin Santana
2. Jose Berrios
3. Stephan Gonsalves
4. Fernando Romero
5. Micheal Pineda
 
Relief Pitchers:
1. J.T. Chargois
2. Aaron Slegers
3. Tyler Jay
4. Trevor Hildenberger
5. Taylor Rogers
6. Trevor May
7. Felix Jorge
8. Adalberto Mejia
 
Infielders:
1. Miguel Sano (DH)
2. Nick Gordon (SS)
3. Jorge Polanco (2B)
4. Jose Iglesias or Josh Donaldson (3B, Free Agent Signee)
5. Matt Adams or Justin Smoak (1B, Free Agent Signee)
6.
 
Outfielders:
1. Byron Buxton
2. Max Kepler
3. Eddie Rosario
4. Zack Granite
 
Catchers:
1. Jason Castro
2. Mitch Garver
 
Note that I have left our starting pitching staff as status-quo until the FO shows the masses that they will throw some coin at a Front Line Starter. I believe with the money coming off the books after the 2018 season, that the financial resources should be there for us to get one. Sano is destined to be a full time DH (due to his size and to keep him healthy). I like Garver's versatility in the field while Castro is still under contract.
 
I think we need to get after a LHH First Basemen, possibly Matt Adams or Justin Smoak. With Sano moving to full-time DH, we would need to acquire a 3rd basemen I like Jose Iglesias for this. We would still need to get a UTL IF/OF type player for the back end of the bench - this could be filled by a variety of players, internal or external. I would also consider Josh Donaldson at 3B - he would cost us a bit more money but would add some significant power to the line-up.
 
I gathered below 16 Position Players and 16 Pitchers that will be Free Agents after the 2018 season. Some are way out of our financial league with some that are older but still productive - who catches your eye as possibly realistic Twins targets for upgrades to our line-up and pitching staff?
 
Position Players:
1. Bryce Harper - 2019 Age, 26
2. Manny Machado - 2019 Age, 26
3. Josh Donaldson - 2019 Age, 32
4. Charlie Blackmon - 2019 Age, 32
5. Elvis Andrus - 2019 Age, 30 (Opt Out)
6. Brian Dozier - 2019 Age, 32
7. AJ Pollock - 2019 Age, 31
8. Andrew McCutchen - 2019 Age, 32
9. Joe Mauer - 2019 Age, 36
10. Adam Jones - 2019 Age, 33
11. Wilson Ramos - 2019 Age, 31
12. Justin Smoak - 2019 Age, 32
13. Matt Adams - 2019 Age, 30
14. Jose Iglesias - 2019 Age, 29
15. Jason Heyward - 2019 Age, 29 (Opt Out)
16. Yasmany Tomas - 2019 Age, 28 (Opt Out)
 
Pitchers:
1. David Price - 2019 Age, 33 (Opt Out)
2. Andrew Miller - 2019 Age, 34
3. Craig Kimbrel - 2019 Age, 31
4. Gio Gonzalez - 2019 Age, 33
5. Zach Britton - 2019 Age, 31
6. Patrick Corbin, 2019 Age, 30
7. Drew Pomeranz - 2019 Age, 30
8. Clayton Kerhaw - 2019 Age, 31 (Opt Out)
9. Matt Harvey - 2019 Age, 30
10. Nathan Eovaldi - 2019 Age, 29
11. Dallas Keuchel - 2019 Age, 31
12. Garrett Richards - 2019 Age, 31
13. Matt Moore - 2019 Age, 30
14. Hyun-Jin Ryu - 2019 Age, 32
15. Joe Kelly - 2019 Age, 31
16. David Robertson - 2019 Age, 34

This is a series of evaluations that will be done this offseason on every player that closed the season on the 40-man roster for the Minnesota Twins throughout the winter until each player has been evaluated. The plan is to start with Mr. Belisle and move all the way through the pitchers, then to the catchers, infielders, outfielders and finally those listed as designated hitters on the club’s official MLB.com roster. That means we’ll wrap it up with Kennys Vargas sometime before the season starts.

Name: Alan Busenitz
2017 Role: Flame-throwing righty who earned Paul Molitor’s trust, and later-inning work, as the season went on.
Expected 2018 Role: Role will depend on how many bats he misses; could be a setup man or could just be another guy.
MLB Stats: 1.99 ERA, 4.20 FIP in 31.2 innings; 6.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.98 WHIP, 0.1 fWAR, 0.7 bWAR.
MiLB Stats: 1.78 ERA, 2.15 FIP in 35.1 innings at Triple-A Rochester
Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible after 2020, free agent after 2023

 
2017 Lowdown:
 
Busenitz came on the scene with the Twins as the lesser-known commodity in the deal that sent Ricky Nolasco and Alex Meyer to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and returned Hector Santiago. To that point, Busenitz was a hard-throwing 26-year-old righty with no big-league experience, though he got a late start as a college draft pick (senior sign) from Kennesaw State University.
 
Not only that, but he played five years of college baseball, which is exceptionally rare. He spent two years at Georgia Perimeter College, then three with the Owls because his 2012 season was abbreviated by Tommy John surgery. Still, he’s a pretty great story. In his first year at Georgia Perimeter, he had a 4.37 ERA and a WHIP of 1.54. In his first two seasons at Kennesaw State — before getting hurt — he had a combined ERA that was close to 7.00 and a WHIP of nearly 2.00.
 
But Busenitz made his way up the Angels system, pitching in relief for all but eight games in a brief stop at Double-A Arkansas — and not a good one, as he posted a 6.75 ERA. Even his minors numbers at most stops aren’t exceptionally strong. He blitzed the low minors like most 20-somethings should, but that first snag at Double-A Arkansas wasn’t that long ago (2015).
 
He barely pitched at Triple-A in 2016 in the Angels system, and it went poorly to say the least. He allowed 11 earned runs in 13 innings (7.62 ERA) while opposing batters hit .308/.383/.462 against him. It’s not surprising he lasted just a month and a day before he was shipped to Double-A — though it was in Chattanooga, as he was then traded to the Twins.
 
Like he has with pretty much every challenge in his career, Busenitz thrived in his second go-round at Triple-A, twirling a 1.78 ERA over 35.1 innings before the Twins gave him his first MLB call.
 
He certainly didn’t disappoint with the Twins, either, posting a 1.99 ERA over 28 appearances spanning 31.2 innings. Now it’d be easy to point out that Busenitz had a FIP of 4.20, thanks in large part to an unsustainably low BABIP (.212) and a high strand rate (86.6 percent), and he also didn’t do much strikeouts-wise with his blazing fastball, fanning just 6.5 batters per nine despite averaging 95.7 mph on the heater.
 
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Happy Holidays to everyone and welcome to my first Blog Entry here on Twins Daily. I am new to the writing/blogging scene (probably several years behind the curve) but I am not new to either baseball and the Minnesota Twins.
 
My background in baseball includes a playing career in both High School and College along with coaching in the collegiate ranks here in the Midwest. I currently expand my baseball background my reading about Owners, Sportswriters, Broadcasters, Managers and Individual Players that all contribute to the great game of baseball. I do it old school too - Hard Cover Books - none of this lightweight Kindle reading. I am also a current member of the American Baseball Coaches Association (ABCA) and will be attending this year's convention in Indianapolis, IN next week.
 
For my first entry, I kicked around the idea of a Minnesota Twins/Moneyball approach. It derives from my constant perusing around the Twins Daily comments section and seeing that fans (the majority of which) are unhappy with the current off-season direction we have gone. Coming off a playoff appearance, fans believed we were only a few pieces away from contending deep into the postseason. A strong off season and free agency were going to put us over the top. Unfortunately, the Twins haven't made a 'flashy' signing yet and lots of people have called the off season an utter disappointment.
 
I would like to try and bring people back down to realty in what the Twins are currently doing. I am not an insider to the Twins organization and can only speculate to the "Strategy".
 
I will say that I am a fan of the Duke, Pineda and Rodney signings so far. They aren't big and flashy, but they serve a purpose. Pineda - coming back from injury, once a highly touted pitching prospect that has flashed great promise is a great buy low signing. Rodney - has age against him but has proven to be a solid back of the bullpen arm and it's only on a one year deal. Duke - wasn't exactly the greatest when he came back from Tommy John surgery last season but again he is another buy low signing. With Duke, at the least, he is a stop gap till mid-season when Tyler Jay should hopefully be ready to join the Major League club.
 
These 3 signings are what Twins fans need to realize will continue to be the norm, it does not matter who the General Manager or Director of Baseball Operations is. All the wishing for us to sign Ohtani from Japan, was a pipe dream and was basically never going to happen. I've heard constant chatter about wanting the Twins to sign a big FA Power Relief Pitcher, that isn't going to happen either - plus it's not a financially sound decision to commit multiple years and big dollars to a relief pitcher...unless his name is Rivera or Hoffman. The Twins best chance to improve the Major League Club with Major League Talent is via a Trade. I was a big fan of going after Gerritt Cole, I thought we wouldn't have to give up as much in comparison to what a trade for Chris Archer would fetch. I'm still on the record for believing a trade will happen this off-season - just don't know when and for whom. I'm with the majority that believes it needs to be a Front Line Starter with multiple years of team control.
 
Fans tend to forget that the Minnesota Twins are in the bottom 3rd of Major League payrolls and we really have never deviated from that. Even if we were to commit an additional 30 million in payroll, we would still be in the bottom half of all Major League Baseball. Would that extra cash help us FINALLY beat the Yankees (in the playoffs) and their 200 Million Dollar payroll??? (Hard to say it would).
 
It is advantageous for the Twins to continue to find value in players that other teams don't see. We do not have the luxury (Time and/or Money) to throw at any and all Free Agents like the Yankees/Dodgers do. We've seen what other clubs have done, the Miami Marlins, seemingly finally putting down some money on players and then not seeing a return on their investment via wins or attendance. They preferred to then scrap the team and go back to their bare bones approach. Who is to say their approach is wrong...the Marlins have won 2 World Series since the last Twins World Series Victory.
 
In all of my rambling and banter - I believe the Twins, for 2018, have signed some bounce back players in preparation for the 2019 season. 2018 will be an additional year of development for the young core of Twins players. Cleveland will be the team to beat in the AL Central with the Wild Card being no gimme. From a Wins and Loss standpoint, I believe 2018 will be either a standstill or step backwards and most Twins fans will find that unacceptable coming off a playoff year.

Yes the title is a wrestling joke. Yes I hate Apple IS 1984. Yes the Twins are on the cusp of a trip to the post-season for the first time since 2010. Regardless, a few weeks ago we had Sean Thornton (Bleeding Royal Blue) on the podcast to fill in while Dan was out of town. Sean and I have never met as he lives in Kansas and I’m in Minnesota (Shout out to Barry for introducing us online!). One of the topics Sean brought up was the Royals’ winning the World Series, and all of the bandwagon fans that started to fill Kauffman Stadium after their World Series appearance, and subsequent win the following season.
 
As a Minnesotan, one of our favorite past times is ripping the Chicago Blackhawk’s fan base for being a bunch of bandwagon fans. It also doesn’t help that they can claim multiple Stanley Cup trophies to Minnesota’s collective zero. The Wild’s slogan of “The State of Hockey” isn’t just because we have another NHL franchise in the state (Norm Green STILL sucks), but because most of us have played hockey at some point in our life. Outdoor rinks pop up every winter in neighborhood parks, and possibly a neighbor’s backyard. Whether you own a pair of hockey skates, figure skates, or even shoes and boots; you can always find a sheet of ice to play on.
 
The same can’t be said for baseball, where the Twins got their start in 1961. It’s not that baseball was new to Minnesota when the former Senators arrived, it’s that baseball isn’t a sport you can easily play throughout the year when 5-7 months are below freezing and the fields have been turned into ice rinks. I can remember playing baseball and softball in cooler weather and having pain shoot up my arms as the aluminum bat connected with the colder than usual ball. That’s not ideal, nor does it feel too good.
 
Luckily winter doesn’t last the entire year and we get around 5 months of warm weather to play baseball. For guys like Dan and I, the start of spring training is our groundhog seeing it’s shadow. Spring is officially on the way, and so is baseball. For as beautiful as Target Field is, there have been some terrible home owners where snow boots and winter coats have trumped wearing a jersey and jeans. But that’s okay because God invented alcohol to keep us warm!… Wait, that’s not true. I’m an Eagle Scout, so allow me to tell you all about “false heat…”
 
Alright, I’ll spare that topic for a different day. What I’m trying to say is Dan and I love baseball. Baseball isn’t just something we talk about when we’re bored. Baseball is something we talk about all year round. We are the guys that will sift through the Twins’ Reddit page for any morsel of news. Some days I’ll send Dan a text at 4:30 in the morning when I see something noteworthy I’ve scrolled past on Twitter. Other times Dan will text me after 8PM (bedtime for a morning show radio host) to let me know about a Brian Dozier in-the-park home run off a bunt. For as taxing as running and producing your own podcast can be, we still enjoy doing it throughout the year because it allows us to talk about baseball, and enjoy it together.
 
We’ve talked about being a gatekeeper on previous podcasts. How it’s uncool to prevent someone from liking what you enjoy just because they haven’t been into it, or know as much as you. I’m not saying that all bandwagon fans will be honest about it. Trust me, you all know one of your friends or family members “that’s totally loved the Twins since *enter their birth-date here*,” even though they’ve never been to the Metrodome or Target Field, and hates Joe Mauer because “this guy at the bar said he got hurt once.” Those kinds of “fans” will always exist (stares longingly at the cities of Chicago and New England and Dallas and New York and Los Angeles and their fans spread throughout the country), but that doesn’t mean all bandwagon fans are like that.
 
You can help a bandwagon fan become a casual Twins fan (this potential post-season run would be a great starting point), and you can turn your casual fans into a hardcore fan. If the Twins win the World Series this year, I know who it’s going to mean more to, and it’s probably not the person who just bought a shirsey to wear to the ticker tape parade.
 
- Panda Pete
 
(Originally posted on TwinsAndLosses.com)

Twins enter playoffs based on Nicky Delmonicos HR, Delmonico is the son of my high school teammate Rodney,
 
You can thank me now!

Following Tuesday night’s 4-1 win over the Chicago White Sox, the Minnesota Twins designated right-handed pitcher Tim Melville for assignment. That opened up a spot on the 40-man roster, and it sure sounds like right-handed reliever John Curtiss will be getting the call, as MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger first reported which was shortly followed by a report from Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
 

 

 
The Twins have yet to confirm the move, though Curtiss is expected to join the team in Chicago on Wednesday.
 
Curtiss has been absolutely brilliant in the Twins system this season. First, he tossed 25 innings for Double-A Chattanooga with a 0.72 ERA (two earned runs) with 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings and a WHIP of 0.96. He followed that up with a mid-June promotion to Triple-A Rochester, where it was more of the same with a 1.85 ERA, 12.2 K/9 and a WHIP of 0.86.
 
For the rest of this story, please click through to Zone Coverage here.

You may have noticed that Eddie Rosario has been hitting higher in the order of late. Part of it has been that the Twins have faced a number of lefties lately, and he’s one of the few batters on the team holding their own against them. Part it is also that Miguel Sano has been sidelined for the past few days after getting hit on the hand with a pitch against the Texas Rangers.
 
But perhaps a large part of it stems from the fact that Rosario is having a nice offensive season, too. For the season, Rosario is hitting .284/.323/.464. The on-base percentage is a career-high by nearly 30 points. He set his career-high in walks for a season on July 5 with 16. That’s not a misprint -- he drew more walks in the first half of 2017 than he did in all of 2016 or the year prior.
 
We’ll come back to that in a bit.
 
It’s not as though Rosario has stung the ball all season long -- at least not from a results standpoint. The 26-year-old left fielder headed into June hitting a very Rosario-like .269/.302/.431. He then hit .291/.341/.519 in the month of June and has been swinging well since, with a slash line of .297/.342/.492 over his last 54 games. His K/BB ratio is 41-13 over that stretch, and while that won’t make anyone forget about Joe Mauer, it is important that he controls the strike zone better -- as we noted this offseason when we projected a possible breakout.
 
From the surface, it’s not hard to see that Rosario is taking a better approach at the plate. While he’s still susceptible to swinging at pitcher’s pitches early in counts or getting himself out, he’s done a much better job laying off pitches outside of the zone. Rosario’s chase rate in his rookie season was 45.6 percent. In other words, he swung at pitches out of the zone nearly half the time -- a staggering figure. That improved to 41.7 percent last year and now 36.7 percent this season. The American League average is 29.7 percent, so while there has been some improvement, more could still be justified.
 
The improved discipline also shows up in his swinging strike rate. That rate peaked last year at 15.3 percent, but is down to a career-low 12.1 percent this season. Again, while that’s progress, it’s still a bit off AL average (10.4 percent).
 
Please click through to Zone Coverage to read the rest of this article here.

Rewind back a few years and the Minnesota Twins knew who would be getting the ball in the 9th inning. For a long time, the answer was Eddie Guardado. The man nicknamed "Every Day" passed the torch to Joe Nathan, and it was then turned over to Minnesota native Glen Perkins. In recent years though, Minnesota has needed to get more creative. As they have done so though, it seems they've consistently created closers out of thin air.
 
In 2015, Kevin Jepsen was Minnesota's answer to Perkins breaking down. Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, he racked up 15 saves despite having just five across 315 appearances to that point. Then again, a year later, Brandon Kintzler emerged. The long time Brewers veteran picked up his first save since minor league ball, and he would go on to run off 44 more up until July 2017. Over the course of three years, Minnesota had consistently created closers out of thin air.
 
Should this tell us anything, it's likely that the narrative be closers are overvalued, and underutilized. The save is a statistic that places more importance on the 9th inning of a ball game, despite their being no evidence that it actually is. Sure, the game comes to a close when a team is winning after the 9th, but the game likely was decided long before that. In having a pitcher designated to get the final three outs, one of your best relievers may have missed the opportunity to get a much more important trio of outs earlier in the contest.
 
It really doesn't matter whether or not a big league team has a "Proven Closer," and holds even less importance for a team not destined for the Postseason. That being said, the Twins appear on a path to again create an asset and this time it's in the form of Matt Belisle. The question is, are the pieces there to make it work?
 
Unlike Kintzler before him, Belisle is not a groundball machine, and he tends to miss some bats. The former throws harder than the latter however, and they both leave something to be desired in a high leverage situation. For Belisle though, there's a few things working in his favor.
 
During 2017, Matt Belisle has racked up strikeouts at a 7.5 K/9 clip. That mark is his best total since 2013, and the third highest total of his career. While he does induce groundballs 43% of the time, Belisle uses a low 90's fastball to generate swings and misses over 10% of the time (for just the second season of his career). He's giving up contact at a career low 78% of the time, and balls are being hit hard a respectable 27% of the time.
 
The beginning of the season didn't go well for the 37 year-old veteran. Through his first 17.2 IP, he owned an ugly 8.66 ERA and was allowing opposing hitters to post an .833 OPS. His last 27.0 IP however have been a different story. He's posted a 1.67 ERA and opposing batters have posted just a .598 OPS. Suggesting it's been a tale of two seasons is more than fair.
 
Down the stretch, the Twins will be on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Having been sellers at the deadline, they realize the uphill battle doesn't seem in their favor. With such an ugly run differential, regression should be expected to hit hard. However, with 52 games remaining as of August 8, the club has exactly half of those contests against teams with sub .500 records.
 
As the summer turns into fall, Matt Belisle should be expected to get most of the Twins save opportunities. He's absolutely the veteran candidate that manager Paul Molitor falls in love with. In closing out games, Belisle is hardly a worse option than either of the previous two created closers. Whether or not anything more than a handful of saves comes out of his work in the 9th remains to be seen, but for now the Twins have again created from within.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Some comments made by Twins center fielder Byron Buxton during the road trip to Fenway Park last week sent the blogosphere/Twittersphere into a tizzy. Buxton, who has hit just .209/.283/.303 this season coming into Thursday night’s game against the Orioles, told Jake Depue of 1500ESPN that he had scorned the leg kick he used to start the season in order to put the ball in play more — including more balls hit on the ground.
 
“[The goal is] putting the ball in play more,” Buxton told Depue. “Putting it on the ground more to get it out of the air. With the leg kick I was more fly ball oriented. It didn’t give me a chance to get on base. Now putting it on the ground I at least have the chance of beating it out or them rushing the throw and making an error.”
 
It’s not hard to read what Buxton said and be immediately discouraged. There’s a reason why the catchphrase among hitters is “Elevate and celebrate.” It’s not exactly earth-shattering science, either; hit the ball on the ground, and you limit yourself to singles and lots of outs. Hit it in the air, and you’re open to not only singles, but extra-base hits of all shapes and sizes.
 
So to hear what Buxton said and not immediately think that he was moving away from his strength and ceiling for the false security of the “safety” of his speed is totally understandable.
 
But according to hitting coach James Rowson, the fears are also unfounded.
 
Make no mistake about it: the Twins are in no way trying to get Buxton to be a slap-happy, beat-it-into-the-ground-and-beat-the-throw kind of hitter.
 
“Absolutely not,” Rowson said of the seemingly prevalent thought that the Twins wanted Buxton to hit the ball into the ground and use his speed as his primary offensive weapon. “Absolutely not. Here’s the deal: I clearly do not want Byron Buxton to hit the ball on the ground and run. (laughs) That is not in the plan. Without a doubt, he’s has a chance to be a dynamic player in this league for years to come and he has the ability to drive the baseball.”
 
Rowson added that he was encouraged by Buxton’s progress even as recently as Thursday night, as the youngster absolutely peppered some balls on the way to a 2-for-4 night — his second multi-hit game in a row and third over his last six games.
 
“Just last night he hit three balls over 100 mph, which shows you that he’s hitting baseballs hard in the last few days,” Rowson said. “It’s starting to come along. No, the goal is not to hit balls on the ground. The goal is going to be to use the whole field and hit balls hard.”
 
Please click through to read the rest of this article here on ZoneCoverage.com.

Last June, Phil Hughes took a liner off the knee.
 
Because we have this kind of information now, MLB.com mentioned that the liner had left J.T. Realmuto's bat at 106 miles per hour. That's a little more than 155 feet per second, and Hughes' follow-through put him maybe 56 or 57 feet from where Realmuto made contact. In other words, Hughes had approximately one-third of a second to protect himself. The average blink of an eye takes 100 to 400 milliseconds. In this case, the cliche is correct: Hughes literally had the blink of an eye to react.
 
At the moment of contact, Hughes was balanced on his left foot, following through, with his glove tucked behind himself as part of his natural rotation. All he could manage, in that one-third of a second, was try to get his right leg in front of his left, a Sophie's Choice of a defensive mechanism made with an athlete's instinct to get something - anything - with a little more padding in front of the ball. As fast as his reaction was, it wasn't enough; the liner caught him on the inside of his left kneecap, knocking him to the ground in agony.
 
Testing revealed that the line drive had broken Hughes' femur, ruling him out for two months. Less than three weeks later, though, Hughes was discovered to have thoracic outlet syndrome, requiring surgery and ending his season; it's the rare upper-body condition, rather than the Realmuto liner, that will be remembered for cutting short Hughes' 2016 season.
 
----------------
 
Phillip Hughes - yes, sometimes called Phil - had the same Australian verve that had been the making of so many other cricketers that had scaled the Down Under heights before him. He'd grown up in the country, learning to slash everything to his off side (in baseball terms: the opposite field) because he batted left-handed and, well, the house was on that side of the field. The kids that break the windows in the house don't get to bat very much, and Hughes very much wanted to bat.
 
By the time he'd broken into the New South Wales first team, he could hop away from any bowling to give himself room to fend it off, tennis backhand-style, away to the off side. It never won him prizes for technique, nor style, but it saw him break into Test cricket by the time he was 20 years old. That year, he became the youngest man to score two centuries in the same match, successfully thwarting South Africa's fast bowlers on the way to 115 and 160 in Durban. One Australian magazine put him on the cover under the headline "Little Don," referring to Don Bradman, the greatest batsman of all time.
 
The longer he played on, though, opposition teams began to work him out. The preferred strategy, for the opposition, was to simply bowl directly at him - to make him pull the ball, in other words. In cricket, this is a legitimate technique. Bowl directly at the batsmen's legs, and you cramp his style; you make him either turn the ball behind himself, or risk getting hit on the leg pads and potentially be called out by the umpire. For someone like Hughes, consistently backing up to give himself the room to whack the ball away from himself, this was bad enough.
 
Some bowlers, though, prefer to cut out the constant search for the batsman's legs, and instead bowl a "bouncer" - a euphemistic term for the ball that whizzes directly at the chest, or head. The technique is still the same, as a batsman; there's no place to put the ball but behind yourself. From the bowler's point of view, the bouncer has the side benefit of being completely terrifying. Imagine baseball, if throwing at the batter's head was considered not only acceptable but a legitimate strategy - that, rather than charging the mound throwing haymakers, the accepted response was to dust yourself off, even if you've just taken a ball off your collarbone at 90 mph.
 
Hughes was in and out of Australia's Test team for the next few years. For every big innings, he had another two or three ugly matches, and in November 2014 he was just fighting to get another chance. His last Test had come in July 2013, against England. Now playing for South Australia, he was rounding into form against his former team, New South Wales.
 
He'd scored 63 runs in almost three and a half hours of batting, on his way to another century - potentially the one that'd get him the call-up to the Australia squad again. NSW had peppered him, as teams always did, with bouncers. Sean Abbott was bowling, following the plan. His fourth ball of the over jumped up, a little more than Hughes was expecting, and caught the young batsman in the side of the neck.
 
Hughes wobbled, for one second, then collapsed to the ground.
 
-----------
 
I think a lot about the 2014 World Cup final, Germany versus Argentina, not for Mario Gotze's extra-time winner, but for a moment in the first half. German midfielder Christoph Kramer was involved in a collision with an Argentina defender that momentarily knocked Kramer senseless. Despite the obvious head injury, Kramer played for 14 more minutes before being substituted; later, referee Nicola Rizzoli said that Kramer had come up to him and asked repeatedly, "Ref, is this the final?"
 
In that moment of the collision, my wife - who is not a sports fan, but was being forced to watch the game by her ridiculous husband - had reacted almost excitedly, along the lines of WHOA LOOK AT THAT. Being Brain Injury Woke like so many "good" sports fans, I chastised her for her apparent celebration. Her response has had me thinking for the last three years.
 
"Don't get mad at me," she said. "You're the one that watches this stuff, not me."
 
-----------
 
Here is what I am responsible for. I watch football non-stop in the fall, CTE be damned. I've never turned the channel during a hockey fight, even though bare-knuckle brawling is abhorrent on its own. I watch rugby despite the occasional skull fractures; I follow soccer closely despite the mounting evidence that heading the ball is leading to long-term brain injury for the participants. This is to say nothing of the countless non-brain injuries caused by these sports and all the others; in terms of human damage, I am only slightly above the ancient scoreboard-watchers who checked to see whether the Romans or the Lions were ahead.
 
Here is how I make myself feel better:
I do not watch mixed martial arts.
I refer to concussions as "brain injuries."
I make fun of people who say that Joe Mauer needs to "toughen up."

This is all I can say to reassure myself: If I stop watching, it won't make a bit of difference. I am a free rider. This isn't my fault, right? It's all of our fault, right? I'm only a very small part of this, right? People would make their choice to play these games whether or not I wear a jersey and plan my day around the games, right?
 
Please say yes.
 
------------
 
If you go down the list of popular sports, baseball is among the most blameless. Compared to football or hockey or rugby or any other contact-mandatory sport, baseball practically promotes old age. Career-ending injuries in baseball usually involve arm ligaments. Broken bones are rare. There is enough finesse and fine motor control involved in the game that the dark side of other sports- horse tranquilizers at halftime to kill the pain, and that sort of thing - are blessedly absent.
 
And yet, Corey Koskie. Look at Joe Mauer's stats pre-concussion and post-concussion, and try to tell me that a concussion won't be the thing that keeps Minnesota's greatest hitter out of the Hall of Fame. Pretending that baseball doesn't have its own dark side - of drugs, and steroids, and all of the things that we don't talk about because the grass is green and the beer is cold and baseball is fun to play - is to ignore reality.
 
To say nothing of Phil Hughes, or Brandon McCarthy, or of every single player at every level of baseball that stands in a batter's box or on a pitcher's mound, as the fastballs get faster and the line drives come back harder.
 
------------
 
We remember Ray Chapman, the answer to the macabre trivia question "Who is the only man to die as the result of an injury received during an MLB game?" Batting at twilight, against submariner Carl Mays, Chapman simply didn't see the dirty, scuffed-up ball that hit him; Babe Ruth, playing right field, said the crack of ball against skull was audible even that far away. The popular shortstop collapsed, blood streaming from his ear, and had to be carried off the field; he died later that night. His wife gave birth to their first daughter six months later.
 
-----------
 
Following Phillip Hughes's death, there were some in cricket that called for the "bouncer" to be banned entirely. There have been rules in place since the 1930s, limiting the number of fielders that can stand behind the batsman - thus reducing the benefit of bowling at the batsman's body. After the West Indies and Australian teams of the 1970s and 1980s used repeated bouncers to scare the daylights out of opposing batsmen, the International Cricket Council limited them to two per over, or two out of every six deliveries.
This limited the potential carnage, but it didn't end it. Some of the best batsmen in history - Brian Lara, Justin Langer, Shivnarine Chanderpaul, Ricky Ponting, and on and on - have been bloodied, or knocked unconscious and hospitalized, by bouncers that they simply could not avoid. Skill has nothing to do with it; to bat is to accept the risk of the next ball being the one that kills you.
 
The bouncer hasn't been banned, of course. Australia's plan of attack against India, in the Test series that just concluded, included bowling bouncer after bouncer at the Indian batsmen, trying to put them off their games.
 
-----------
 
It's Opening Day for the Twins, and I'm excited about the season, of course I am. Not about the Twins' chances, necessarily, but about the return of baseball - nightly games, and listening on the radio while I drive somewhere, and reading the game score in the paper, and catching a couple of innings on TV before going to bed.
 
My attention helps sell advertising; that advertising funds baseball; players put themselves at physical risk as a result. This is as true in baseball as it is in any other sport.
 
Phil Hughes is back in the Twins' starting rotation.
 
I would like to ignore all of this.

In a late-night tweet, President Donald Trump branded the recent redesign of indispensable baseball statistics website baseball-reference.com "the enemy of the people."
 
Said Trump in a tweet, posted after midnight on February 26: "Baseball-reference redesign: Media elites keep changing things so that REAL fans can't find baseball facts to refute their FAKE NEWS. Enemy of the people. Sad!"
 
The redesign, rolled out last week to drastically improve the site's performance on mobile devices and create a better foundation for future improvements, proved mostly popular, though a few fans voiced temporary displeasure with features they had previously used. As the week wore on, the chatter died down, as most fans found that extremely slight changes to a free service were in fact not critical to their day-to-day lives.
 
The President, meanwhile, was not in such a forgiving mood. White House watchers speculated that Trump, an avid user of mobile devices, was unhappy that some biographical information for players was hidden in the redesign, a conscious choice by site designers in order to move player statistics higher on the page.
 
"While the criticism is unfortunate, we're very happy with the changes we've made, and have received positive feedback from many people," said Baseball-Reference founder Sean Forman. "Calling us 'the enemy of the people' seems a little crazy, but we can't control how everyone feels about the redesign."
 
Trump joins Keith Hernandez and Keith Law as high-profile media figures who have criticized the redesign.

Many of you may be looking at the Twins roster for opening day and wondering: "where the hell are the prospects?"
 
Sure, we've been told again and again that we're about to get a huge influx of talent. And sure, we've been told that the children are our future. But the young players coming north: Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas, Oswaldo Arcia, Kyle Gibson...we've seen them all before...and the people we haven't seen: Blaine Boyer? Kurt Suzuki? Tim Stauffer? Are not the world changing prospects we've been asked to bank on.
 
So, you may be a little frustrated. I'm a little frustrated. Until I realized that this is all part of Terry Ryan's Secret Plan.
 
We at Peanuts from Heaven have found a secret ad written, directed and produced by Terry Ryan. What follows is a transcript of that ad.
 
 
TWINS SECRET COMMERCIAL
 
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sHUQsYurfT8/VRsVnQZM0oI/AAAAAAAADHA/325H98WUK7c/s1600/SaneTerry.jpg
[Ext. Day, Terry Ryan, wearing a completely respectable suit is walking toward the camera from Right Field]
 
 
SANE TERRY. Hi. I'm Sane Terry, from Sane Terry's House of Fiscally Viable Veterans here with totally reasonable deals on all your veteran baseball player needs.
 
 
 
[Cut to. Int. Twins Clubhouse, Sane Terry walks past empty lockers]
 
SANE TERRY. For years, the Minnesota Twins have been giving the aging and seemingly ineffective baseball players of America a chance to hit rock bottom. Once they do that, they are ripe for the picking...your picking.
 
 
 
[Cut to. Close Up, Terry Ryan turned to face new camera]
 
SANE TERRY. Are you a team with six valid starting pitchers? Why not trade for one of our many rotation candidates as insurance in case of injury, theft, or spontaneous combustion?
 
 
 
[Cut to. Opposite angle Terry Ryan turned to face new camera]
 
SANE TERRY. Are you a team who wishes their young players could learn from a cautionary example? Why not trade for one of our jaded-former-prospects whose shattered dreams has left them a shell of their former selves?
 
 
 
[Cut to. Original Angle Terry Ryan turned to face new camera]
 
SANE TERRY. You can get all your valuable veterans for low, low prices. Just ask these satisfied customers.
 
 
 
[Cut to Neal Huntington smiling in front of PNC Park in Pittsburgh]
 
HUNTINGTON. Our team used to be a joke, but once we just started picking Terry's discarded pitchers off the scrap heap, we had all the support we could ever need!
 
 
[Cut to Buck Showalter at the dugout railing of Camden Yards]
SHOWALTER. If someone has "former-Twin" on their resume, you can bet that they'll be a below-average starter, but an irrationally great resource for your post season run! Thanks to Sane Terry, I might not be fired right before my team wins the World Series!
 
[Cut to Sane Terry reclining in his office at Target Field, the camera takes in a view of the field]
SANE TERRY. We know you can get brand new ballplayers from many sources. But Crazy Billy's Coliseum of Deals always seems to have ulterior motives, and the next Miami Marlins Fire Sale isn't scheduled until November 2016, so why not come on down to Sane Terry's House of Fiscally Viable Veterans and see what we have on offer?
 
[Cut to, reverse Angle, the camera takes in a view of the hallway]
SANE TERRY. You don't have to give up the farm, just a young kid with upside, or downside, or cash...we like cash. And we like to give these veteran ball players a new lease on life. That's why we'll always have them on the roster, and always have them available, because that's what made us successful all these years.
 
ANONYMOUS INTERN [While walking by Terry's door]. Huh? What do you mean? We haven't been successful. And the older players rarely if ever help us. And when we trade them we almost never get anything of value.
 
SANE TERRY. Well, you know what they say, "the definition of sanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result."
 
ANONYMOUS INTERN. Actually I think that's the definition of insanity.
 
SANE TERRY. Ha. Ha. If that were true, I would be Crazy Terry...and I am clearly Sane Terry. It says so on this ad.
 
ANONYMOUS INTERN. What ad? And who are you talking to?
 
SANE TERRY. Sane Terry's House of Fiscally Viable Veterans. Call now and get Mike Pelfry right before he finalizes his deal with the devil for one more good season.
 
[Fin.]

I have followed the Twins since they moved to Minnesota from DC. In the early days, the Twins excelled in hitting home runs. They had plenty of power at many positions led by perennial home run king Harmon Killebrew, who led the league in homers six times. However, since Mr. Nixon said "I am not a crook" (and Harmon declined), the Twins have had a severe power shortage. In the forty-plus years since 1973, the Twins have outhomered their opponents in only three seasons and by narrow margins.
 
The 2014 Twins scored a lot of runs, but would have been an elite offensive club if they had hit more long balls. What is exciting is the promise that in the future they will have the players to turn around games with one swing. Oswaldo Arcia hit 20 homers in just 400 plate appearances last season. If his homer rate stays unchanged, he would hit 30 in a full season with 600+ PAs. Kennys Vargas hit nine homers in an extended trial late in the season. Again, with full-time plate appearances, that total should be in the mid-twenties for a full season. Add top prospect Miguel Sano, who homered 35 times in less than 500 PAs in his last minor league season (in pitcher-friendly and homer-averse leagues), and the Twins have a prospective middle of the order cluster that could easily hit 90 or more homers. Sano, Arcia and Vargas are all young and would figure to increase their power numbers.
 
I haven't mentioned yet the Twins leader in home runs the last two years--Brian Dozier. He brings significantly above average power to a position that the Twins traditionally have filled with slap hitters (his last two seasons both set records for home runs by a Twins second baseman). Beyond that, current Twins backup catcher Josmil Pinto would also profile to hit a lot of homers with full-time plate appearances.
 
Whenever Sano arrives, the Twins would figure to have above-average home run production. I expect that the Twins will close the gap in long balls next year and perhaps out-homer their oppontents for the first time in more than a decade. An increase in power might cover regression in other areas.

The Twins will probably lose 90 games this year. That doesn't mean that they will be making wholesale changes of their roster, at least not from the position player standpoint. After watching half of the Angel series, I'm convinced that all of the 13 position players that will head north out of Fort Myers are playing for the Twins right now. Most of the players are givens. A couple of guys will have competition and two of the jewels of the system will probably get their chance sometime in 2015, but what you are seeing is pretty close to what you will get in the spring of 2015.
 
Here's my thirteen players: Regulars--Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, Plouffe, Santana, Hicks, Schafer, Arcia, Vargas, and Suzuki. Bench--Parmelee, Nunez, and Pinto. You notice I listed ten regulars. I am visualizing Santana as a tenth starter, around the infield and outfield. Hicks and Schafer share with Santana in left and center.
 
This is a young lineup (basically) with both power and speed. This is essentially the same lineup that is leading the league in scoring since August 1. If Hicks tanks again, there are alternatives. I have started a thread and stated in other threads that I like both Nuñez and Parmelee as bench players. I also expect that Pinto will gain more time behind the plate next year and that by the end of the season, he may be sharing time or better with Suzuki.
 
With exciting guys like Sano and Buxton perhaps just a phone call away by midseason, one has to be optimistic about the position players. The pitching staff? well, changes have to be made.

2011. The Year of the Injury. Nishioka. Bilateral leg weakness. 90+ losses.
2012. The Rebound That Wasn't. Brutal starting pitching. Marginal bullpen and offense.
2013. Stop the Pain. The farm is looking better, but the major league team isn't so major.
2014. TBD. On pace for 90 losses, the consensus seems to be that this year's team is easier to watch. The team has made moves to transition to the next generation of players.
 
This brings us to the question I've pondered and will try to answer:
How long does it take a team to rebuild and make the playoffs after a 90 loss season?
 


 
90 losses is bottoming out. It's bad. Since 1996 through 2010, we can find 36 instances of a team that lost 90 games and has either gone on to make the playoffs in a future year or is still trying -- looking at you, Royals. Some teams have done it more than once like the four-time Cubs while only two teams have avoided a 90 loss season -- the Yankees and Cardinals. Some teams lose 90 games and relive that pain multiple times. Other teams have rebounded quickly.
 
Number of seasons it takes to reach the playoffs after first losing 90 games:


 
 
Six of those teams are still adding to their streak of no playoffs since their first 90 loss season after the '95 strike: Royals (1985 in real life, represented as 1997 here), Blue Jays (2004), Mariners (2004), Marlins (2007), Padres (2008), Mets (2009).
 
We can come to a couple of interesting conclusions by looking at that chart:
 
1) If you don't rebound immediately after your 90 loss season, you probably need to rebuild.
This is pretty evident with the 2012 Twins. After a long playoff streak, it was reasonable for us all to think that 2011 might have been a blip. Turns out, no.
 
2) In this data set, the average rebuild to reach the playoffs takes 5.8 years. If we exclude the teams that rebounded after one bad year, that number goes up to 7 years.
The Twins are about to wrap year 3 since 2011's 90+ losses. We're certainly hopeful that the Twins reach the playoffs before 2017 or 2018, but it's feasible to think that could be the case as prospects continue to develop and grow into producers at the MLB level. The Twins appear pretty close to on track for "average" or just ahead.
 
Many of us would have liked the Twins to be more aggressive in acknolwedging the first conculsion. We'd all probably agree that the farm system has come a long way and the future holds hope. Hopefully, this data provides some insight on how long a rebuild takes across MLB and, therefore, provides something to compare our current rebuild against.
 
Obligatory Joe Mauer reference for free pizza.

My article last week suggesting that the Twins trade Glen Perkins (for the right offer) is one of the most read things I've written. Although there were only a handful of comments at Twins Fan From Afar, over here at TwinsDaily there are nearly 200 comments (most of them well thought out). MLBTradeRumors also linked to the article, and it ran in the Star Tribune. In other words, more than the usual 5 found this article.
 
I don't have anything to compare with for this week, so I'm going to beat the Glen Perkins horse until it's dead. Here are 7 more working titles about Perkins, all in various stages of completion. If you feel so inclined, submit your own titles and I will also consider writing about them.
 
1) "Demote Glen Perkins."
 
2) "Deport Glen Perkins."
 
3) "How Glen Perkins is Singlehandedly Keeping Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Trevor May and Alex Meyer in the Minors."
 
4) "Where was Glen Perkins when Dennis Martinez Hit Kirby Puckett with that Fastball in 1995? Oh That's Interesting No One Can Seem to Account for His Whereabouts."
 
5) "How Glen Perkins Almost Cost the Twins the '91 World Series: Part 1 of 47."
 
6) "Hey, Glen: Where's Your Birth Certificate? Are you Really Even `One of Us?'"
 
7) "Source: `The Neckbeard is Artificial.'"