Steve Lein

Seems like Ortiz has started out extremely hot the last 2 or 3 years, only to go on and extremely struggle for the rest of it. Would like to see him maintain his performance for a little while longer. Think it was 2011, but he hit like 7 or 8 HR's in the first month or so of the season to go along with a .350ish batting average, but finished the season with 10 HR's total and a below .250 average.

This is a prime example of where minor league stats don't tell nearly the whole story. There are reasons Taillon is ranked near top-10 in all of baseball prospects and Berrios isn't mentioned in any top 100 lists. Just saying. Taillon is referenced everywhere as a potential ace-level pitcher, Berrios gets #2/3 projections. Will Berrios show up on those lists next year? It wouldn't surprise me, but it also won't be that high. Would his performance to date merit a promotion more than Taillon did? Sure. But that doesn't mean it should or would happen. I'd say he doesn't go to Fort Myers until August, if at all. They'll promote the guys with College experience in CR first. It's what they do. It's not like I'm making something up about how the Twins handle these guys, talent level taken into account high or low, it hasn't mattered. I just looked up a few scouting reports out there for Berrios, and this a line from one of them, that is repeated in some form in all of them: "The Twins often lack aggression with their pitchers and he may not see High-A until 2014, but he could force a timetable that puts him in the big league rotation in 2016." I don't think he's really forcing anything right now. The performance has been pretty good so far, but not dominating, and that's what it would take. I think it would be great if they promoted him, as I do think he's more advanced than what he's going against in Low-A, but it's also good for the guy to get more exposure in the league he is in, especially in his first full season. It has been only six starts after all.

I explained that right away, "If you look at their history with HS draftees, their promotion schedule is very deliberate, 1 level per year," it hasn't mattered the talent level with Pitchers. He's a 19 year old pitcher out of High School in his first full season of professional baseball, there's not really anything more to it than that. Look at Pittsburgh and their handling of one of their uber-prospects, Jameson Taillon, who is a far better prospect than Berrios, yet he spent the entirety of his first full year in Low-A ball, and was limited to less than 100 innings. The next year, he spent almost all of it at high-A, making 3 starts to end the year in AA. He's back in AA this year. It's part of getting them acclimated to the rigors of pro-ball. Going from HS to pro is a drastic difference. The difference between HS to college is also drastic, college to pro, not as much.

I've thought all along he'd move up prospect lists faster than he would through the system because of how the Twins treat pitchers like him. If you look at their history with HS draftees, their promotion schedule is very deliberate, 1 level per year. I think B.J. Hermsen's schedule is a good comparison of how they'll handle Berrios in his first full year. Even though Berrios has a lot more talent, the Twins aren't going to treat him any different while he's so young. I'd expect him to pitch in Fort Myers this year at some point, but he'll start there next season as well. If his stuff had any projection, he'd be thought of even higher than he already is.

It's not really a big deal if it is controlled well. However, as a diabetic myself, I can attest that it also carries a higher risk of injuries to things such as the shoulder. I have a bad wing right now and my doctor mentioned the issue I have is quite common for diabetics. Has to do with blood circulation to soft tissue/muscles.

Who was worse?! (last year isn't by my metrics...)

This idea is never going to happen, ever (trading Joe Mauer). But if it was possible in some alternate dimension, I would want it to be to Boston. Because he'd hit .400 there as easily as he hits .320 everywhere else.

See the note at the bottom of this article about the Twins from last year: How Bad Can It Get? The Worst Pitching Staffs of All Time Basically their Team ERA+ would have been the 2nd worst of all-time at that point in May last season, and they are worse this year... So... Yes to the original question?!

Interesting note in Baseball America's Hot Sheet today, where Sano made the "In The Team Photo" section (Kyle Gibson was #3 for his CG SO): Miguel Sano, 3b, Twins: El Rey had another good week, crushing seven extra-base hits for high Class A Fort Myers, including three home runs. He even stole three bases in three tries, giving him seven for the season. For all the skepticism about Sano’s defense at third, scouts who have seen him this year don’t see him moving any time soon. It’s worth noting that Sano leads all Florida State League third basemen in total chances, putouts and assists and is third among FSL third basemen in range factor. ("El Rey" translates to "The King" for those curious - Not one I've heard before for him, but I like the nickname)

I really hope this happens, as I would like the Twins to get a Gray/Appel/Bryant far more than anyone else in this draft, BUT, it strikes me as extreme posturing considering the player Houston drafted last year with the below-slot strategy, Carlos Correa, is destined for 3B already...

I like Beresford, skinny guy like me... I also wouldn't doubt if he's the first player to get a bump in level (MiLB promotion) this season over Sano/Rosario/Buxton, as he's already played a full season at AA and has shown drastic improvement in his hitting this season. (said this the other day before stopping by here: ) He also got into one of the Spring Training games I was at this year at Hammond Stadium, and hit a Home Run. He definitely bulked up some as well, evidenced both visually and by that hit, as it was only his 2nd HR he's had since turning pro (provided he never hit any others in ST). He's a very good defender from what I've seen and heard, and as others mention above, is probably playing 2B for Santana's sake. Beresford is definitely a utility type, but if he can keep hitting, that can change. I remember a chat with Seth early this year, where he said something along the lines of "if Beresford hits at all, he'll play with the Twins this season." So far, so good in that regard, though Florimon and Escobar have been better than expected, so who knows if that would still be the case.

My response in no way was for or against drafting Manea specifically, only about how the Twins must build a pitching staff through the draft with the way they operate. If you can't get a potential ace, you might be best served by loading up with #2's/#3's (which are still guys who go in the 1st round). But I'd rather have Bryant in this draft over Manea.

Exactly why BPA doesn't exactly fit how you would like it to with the Twins. The only way they are EVER going to build a good pitching staff is through the draft. And if you never use your high picks on high-talent pitching, you're never going to have an above average rotation unless a miracle happens with a guy you didn't see coming. You can talk about trades, but the Twins likely won't ever trade the type of talent that brings no-doubt frontline starters back either (guys like Sano/Buxton). Guys like Berrios/May/Meyer are great, but their odds of being frontline ACE types are not. Berrios has some good stuff, but lacks any projection, and because of that he won't be a frontline type when he gets to the majors. May has swing and miss stuff but lacks control, so he's a mid-rotation-peak or power bullpen arm. Meyer has #1 potential, but the odds of him harnessing everything to get there isn't particularly high (he'd be regarded even higher if it was). So I think out of our future rotation guys, we have a #2 (Meyer), maybe a couple #3's (Gibson, Berrios), and whole mess of back of the rotation guys (Scott Diamond might be a #3, but he looks a lot like a lefty Nick Blackburn to me) ...Which is still not the rotation of a contender in my book.

Just a sidebar as I don't agree with 114 pitches being the "risk" that you do, given the circumstances. To elaborate: To me, the 100 pitch mark is stupid. It shouldn't be about the total pitches, but how they got to that number - and hope that's actually how most teams approach it. For instance, in this 9 inning complete game for Gibson, 114 pitches averages out to 12.67 pitches per inning, which is a pretty damn good and low pitch count/inning number, and one that is not overly stressing the starter, even if he throws all 9 innings. Where running up the pitch total comes into play as stressing them, is when they end up throwing 20+, or 30+ pitches in an inning, such as what has happened with Pelfrey and Worley. In games like that, your starter is getting pulled in the 4th or 5th inning with 80+ or 90+ pitches thrown already, so he's averaging 20+ pitches per inning. Gibson's pitch count by inning went like this if you're wondering (by gameday pitch-by-pitch): 18, 16, 12, 11, 12, 13, 7, 12, 13 (which is actually 116 pitches). He didn't have any long innings, the worst being at the beginning of the game when it doesn't matter as much because he's fresh, and was very consistent throughout. In a game like that, I think that starter definitely should be able to push 100+ pitches without worry. If he had approached 20+ pitches in an inning later in the game, I would share the risk assessment, but not here. It's the same premise as to why guys can throw harder when they're expected to only throw an inning in the bullpen, they won't be exposed (usually) to extended stress on the arm.

The night before Rochester played a 16-inning game, so Gibson helped their bullpen out a bunch by throwing the complete game. Also, he was given an extra day of rest before this next start that was a clunker, so I don't buy the dead arm notion. Agree with Nick overall though, their handling of Gibson is dumb. It's nice that a guy like Hernandez may get 1 or 2 more "opportunities," but the fact is everyone already knows what he is, and that's a spot-starter on his best day, not someone to prevent a future rotation fixture from getting his own "opportunity." Gibson will not be worse than most of what they're using right now, so they might as well get some actual value out of those limited innings.

This snippet also from their Hot Sheet report last week (before this start): "Kyle Gibson, rhp, Twins. If the Twins need starting-pitcher help at some point this summer, Gibson should be ready and waiting. He’s only had one awful start in his first five appearances at Triple-A Rochester this spring and he’s had three really good outings, like the one he threw this week (zero runs in 6 2/3 innings with seven strikeouts and two walks). The 25-year-old has shown no lingering effects from his Tommy John surgery and by all accounts looks just about big league ready."

Some have already pointed out this caveat, but good article from Baseball America on Gibson's start yesterday: Thursday Prospect Notebook: Kyle Gibson Dominates, But It Comes With A Caveat - BaseballAmerica.com The name Kyle Waldrop is also dropped as having shut-out Toledo... Appears Pittsburgh has him starting, and has been pretty good in 2 games.

From MLB.com Official Rules (key notes bolded): "A CATCH is the act of a fielder in getting secure possession in his hand or glove of a ball in flight and firmly holding it; providing he does not use his cap, protector, pocket or any other part of his uniform in getting possession. It is not a catch, however, if simultaneously or immediately following his contact with the ball, he collides with a player, or with a wall, or if he falls down, and as a result of such collision or falling, drops the ball. It is not a catch if a fielder touches a fly ball which then hits a member of the offensive team or an umpire and then is caught by another defensive player. If the fielder has made the catch and drops the ball while in the act of making a throw following the catch, the ball shall be adjudged to have been caught. In establishing the validity of the catch, the fielder shall hold the ball long enough to prove that he has complete control of the ball and that his release of the ball is voluntary and intentional." I'd say without a doubt that Hicks met all those requirements in that play.

It's a bit of a judgement on the Umps part, but the rule is if control is made, and/or the player makes a deliberate action to get rid of the ball, it's an out. In this case, even if Dozier dropped the flip, I have to believe 100% of MLB umpires would still rule it a catch. There is absolutely no rule about transferring the ball in order for an out to be recorded. It's only about demonstrated "control", which can be an instantaneous act, for instance on how outs are recorded at 1B.

While he definitely does some things that a lot of don't agree with, I've never really been overly critical of Gardy like some people have. I think he's been a decent manager in his time. But, that tune is starting to change as the Twins begin going through a youth movement. His game-decisions and actions with his young players have bugged me a lot more this season for some reason. To me, Gardy has been showing he is not the guy to bring these youngsters along at the MLB-level. He's always been a little tough on rookies, not TK tough, but he definitely will throw one of them under the bus before he ever gets on a veteran who may have done something that contributed to a loss just as bad. It's reminding me a lot of TK's last year where he passed the torch to Gardy. What gets me though, is how Gardy went into the year basically begging that Hicks get his chance, he was "Gardy's Guy." Then instead of keeping his faith, he's come to the point where he pinch-hits for Hicks in a spot that could have done wonders for the rookie's confidence by just allowing him the chance (never mind that the Twins potentially lost the game because of the OF defense that remained afterward), and now he gets mad over an innocent/instinct driven (the flip - I've done this same thing before playing in the outfield, it's just kind of a reaction: "Sweet, I got to that ball, hey there's my SS -> flip) action that I've seen other Twins CF's make plenty of times before. Also, remember all the times Casilla tried flipping the ball to 2B with his glove on a double play ball? And how many times that didn't work? It's pretty much the same thing, except in those cases it ends up not resulting in an out. Yet, I don't recall Gardy ever getting on Casilla's case like this. Instead he got praise for his "effort" to get the ball. Well, as Seth has said, pretty sure Hicks put in a pretty good "effort" to catch that ball. I'd call the flip a reaction of relief he got to it on his part. And I'll admit, I've been a little disappointed with Hicks defense so far, I've seen him be a lot better. Some people say he looks "Non-chalant" out there, but I saw that as a sign of his confidence, that he knows he'll make the play. Unfortunately, I think that confidence is being affected by Gardy's managerial style with him, and I'm inclined to blame Gardy for this as well. But, I'm at the point where I think that the Twins will need a manager going forward to grow with their young prospects, and that's not Gardy.

Nick Castellanos is #21 on Baseball America's and MLB.com's pre-2013 top 100 prospects. Was just noting another player with similar hype who had hit comparably to what Buxton is doing now, and how long it took for the team to promote him. Mike Trout played EIGHTY games in the MWL before he was moved up to the CAL League. I just think its way to premature to call for his promotion already. They aren't going to mess with any "accelerated timeline" by keeping him in Cedar Rapids for half a season. If they do that, and he does well at Fort Myers, he's likely in AA to start next year and knocking on the door already. That's plenty fast.

I've read it in several scouting reports. They also mention the OF, but not many call him even an "average" third baseman.

Wouldn't worry about Kris Bryant at 3B, there is a lot of talk about him 'ala Sano of years past, he's not going to stay there unless the team absolutely wants him too. He'll play 1B professionally. He also sounds a lot like the type of guy personality-wise the Twins have wet dreams over, so there's that.

Just another example of a timeline with a player destroying a league hitting-wise: In his first exposure to the Florida State League to start his 2012 season, Detroit Tigers top prospect Nick Castellanos batted .405/.461/.553. He played 55 games. So essentially it took until the all-star break for Detroit to move him up (and he struggled big time at the next level). To expect sooner than that, is just plain dumb, quite frankly. It's a rarity everywhere, especially for a player making his full-season-league MiLB debut.

To me, when a player is lacking some confidence defensively, "sitting back" or "not attacking the ball" tends to creep in - this has been my experience playing all over the diamond. Third base is probably also where this is most commonly manifested due to the reasons mentioned above. I'd bet this is going on with Plouffe. Hopefully just needs to put in some extra work to take care of it. All I know is on a chopper you don't want to let that second bounce happen if you can, or try your best to have it hit the ground as close to your glove as possible. It will skip or do some other crazy bounce due to the physics, almost never will it be a nice candy hop - which is what a player is looking for when they're "sitting back."