Boone

Great article, very in-depth. Are you planning on doing this for pitchers? I would be interested in reading that. First and foremost, let's hope some of these guys get hot for the next month and increase their value. I think that the Twins should do anything and everything to get legitimate prospects in return. For this reason, I have no problem with the Twins paying a hefty portion of Morneau's salary in order to increase his value. What about packaging players? I know it doesn't happen much, but some of these teams have multiple needs we can fill. This includes the Pirates, Garrett Jones has struggled at 1B and Travis Snider has been dreadful. Willlingham to the Pirates could be an option if Marte can move to RF. Kingham's numbers look pretty good to me. He could be a steal.

I completely agree. I think that if May can keep on striking out a batter an inning (which he's done his whole career), limit home runs (which he's done every year with the exception of last season), and continue to display improved control I think he could sneak into the back end of some lists. People seem to forget that May is just 3 months younger than Meyer and was ranked by BA as the #69 prospect in all of baseball before 2012.

A few thoughts: I'm really excited to see how Felix Jorge and Kuo Hua Lo pitch. They're two of my favorite young prospects. I was disappointed to see that Angel Mata was released. I always found him intriguing. There seems to be a lack of young, exciting bats compared to past years. Fortunately our other lower levels are stacked in that regard.

My belief that Mauer's numbers are sustainable was based off of two facts: 1. Mauer is hitting a ton of line drives, so although his BABIP will fall, it should remain very high. Mauer's LD rate of 28.1% is well above his previous career high of 25% and career average of 23.4%. This means that his high BABIP isn't as lucky as it seems. 2. Mauer's strikeouts are way down in June, meaning that even if his BABIP falls, his batting average should stay high because he is putting so many more balls in play. In May, Mauer struck out in 29.5% of his ABs but he has struck out in just 11.7% of his ABs so far in June (career rate = 12.7%).

This is a really poor way to analyzing run production because it fails to consider which base a player is on or how fast they are. Furthermore, this is just a really small sample size. A better way to evaluate this is to look at triple slash lines with runners on base and RISP, because it is eliminates other variables that can skew the results. For Mauer's career he is hitting .341/.460/.493/.953 with RISP compared to .308/.375/.463/.838 with no RISP. That's run production right there. When you consider that slugging percentage isn't as important with RISP (a single will score the runner from 3rd and there's a good chance it will score the runner from 2nd) this is even more impressive. Furthermore, Mauer is hitting .343/.441/.476/.917 with runner's on base. Again, that's going to produce a lot of runs. And just in case anyone's questioning his "clutch gene," his OPS is 1.010 with RISP and 2 outs.

There are two reasons why many people, including Callis, think May's future is as a relief pitcher: 1. He fails to go deep into ballgames. May's size and ability to keep his velocity late in starts indicate that he has the ability to be a starter. The reason he has failed to reach the 7th inning so frequently is because he walks so many batters. However, if he continues to improve his control he should be able to alleviate this problem. Notice that his Innings/GS has increased each month this season. 2. He is a fly-ball pitcher who gives up a lot of HRs. Although May has always been a fly-ball pitcher he has been able to limit HRs. Between 2010 and 2011, May pitched 285 innings and allowed 18 HRs before allowing 22 in 150 innings last season. However, May has given up just 6 HRs in 80 innings this year. In other words, we shouldn't be worried about May giving up too many HRs.

First of all, I like the idea of trading Plouffe. His .756 OPS last season would have placed him 11th among qualified 3rd basemen and his .792 OPS this year would place him 9th among qualified 3rd basemen. This, combined with the fact that he's a right-handed power-hitter, makes him a valuable commodity at the trade deadline. That being said, I would wait to trade Plouffe for two reasons: 1. He isn't blocking a legitimate 3B prospect (Sano) and probably won't until next year's trade deadline. 2. His value will be higher in the future. Plouffe's OPS has improved each of the last 3 seasons, and should be expected to rise in the future with more playing time, especially because he is just 27.

The fact that Mauer doesn't hit HRs shouldn't stop you from playing him at 1B. It is a fact that OPS has a higher correlation to run production than any other stat. Therefore, you should look for a high OPS, not just power, at 1B and Mauer's OPS this season would be one of the highest for first basemen. Anyways, my point was that the Twins should decrease his time at 1B this year because we have nothing to play for. Doing so will allow him to catch more and be more productive as a catcher when we are legitimate contenders.

Mauer has been extremely productive this season. His OPS of .904 is the 3rd highest of his career and is the 5th highest in all of baseball. He isn't getting nearly enough credit for his production. More importantly, I believe that Mauer's success this year is sustainable. His line drive rate of 28.6% is easily a career high and his GB/FB rate of 1.73 has returned to the levels it was from 2007-2009. And although Mauer has struck out more than ever before, he has eliminated this problem with 11 BB to 6 K in 55 ABs in June while posting a .915 OPS and a .182 ISO. Maybe Mauer won't have to trade strikeouts for power after all... This isn't really the point of the thread, but I hope that the Twins reduce Mauer's time at catcher significantly after the trade deadline. No need to accumulate more wear and tear on his knees during meaningless games.

Although many would consider Trevor May’s season to this point disappointing, and in many ways it has been, he has made marked improvements from month-to-month: April: GS 5: Innings per GS: 5 BB/9: 5.7 K/BB: 1.5 ERA: 4.62 May: GS 6: Innings per GS: 5.5 BB/9: 4.4 K/BB: 1.8 ERA: 3.82 June: GS 3: Innings per GS: 6.7 BB/9: 2.7 K/BB: 3.8 ERA: 1.80 This kind of consistent improvement is an excellent sign in May’s development and makes his rather pedestrian numbers look much more promising. When considering May’s history, it isn’t surprising that he has started to take a step forward. Since 2009, May has repeated each league he has been to (A, A+, and now AA). At every level, his second stint has been much more impressive than the first. It appears that this trend is continuing this season, his second in the Eastern League. This makes a mid-season promotion of May a little tricky. If he continues to show improvement, especially in his walk-rate, one would expect him to be promoted, especially because he played all of last season at AA. However, with such a boom-or-bust prospect, teams tend to be more conservative.

I agree that Gibson should stay in AAA. Although he has shown more "consistency" his last 3 starts by abandoning his previous good-bad-good pattern, he has been underwhelming. In his last 3 starts Gibson has an ERA of 2.84, which is excellent, but he has just 14 K and 8 BB in 19 innings. I would like to see him improve that ratio before he is promoted.

I think this actually goes against the purpose of FIP, which is intended to eliminate the situational aspect of pitching and give an expected ERA based solely off of hits, walks, etc. According to Fangraphs, "Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average." The important thing to note here is "timing," which is why it doesn't factor in how many men were on base when a home run is hit. The general premise is that over an extended period of time, performance would regress to the mean and be similar regardless of how many men were on base; this is similar to looking at LOB% to determine if a player will regress or improve from one season to the next.

Although Florimon has been dreadful offensively, advanced defensive metrics (from both fangraphs and baseball reference) place him as arguably the best defensive shortstop in the game this year. As a result he has posted 1.4 WAR according to fangraphs and 1.5 WAR according to baseball reference. Those numbers put him easily in the top half of shortstops. I know WAR isn't a perfect stat, but it does indicate that Florimon has been solid. Furthermore, Florimon has shown some improvement offensively since last season: his walk rate, line drive rate, and contact rate have all improved. Florimon certainly isn't the long-term answer at SS, but if he continues to make small improvements offensively and play excellent defense, he should be an adequate starter during our rebuilding years until one of our better SS prospects is ready. I really hope that the Twins can grab a SS prospect who can play the position and has a solid bat in the first round next year.

I am very much against the idea of Buxton skipping A+, especially because the Florida State League is a pitcher's league. That being said, Cardinals 2B prospect Kolten Wong (who made pretty much every top-100 list this past year in the 75-100 range) went from A-ball in 2011 as a 20 year old (.911 OPS) to AA-ball in 2012 as a 21 year old (.754 OPS) and is now in AAA as a 22 year old (.835 OPS). It can, and has been done, but with a prospect like Buxton, it isn't worth the risk.

Being this critical of the Twins non-1st round pick is a little ridiculous for several reasons: 1. We know very, very little about any prospects outside the top-5. This isn't the NFL draft. 2. The Twins, on the other hand, have spent a ton of time scouting players. They know a lot. 3. Eades was ranked as the 37 prospect by BA and 29 by MLB.com (not that I trust them that much). There is a video on ESPN from early May where KLaw said he thought Eades would go 20-30 range. These guys know a lot more than any of us do, and their analysis seems to indicate that we got good value at 43. 4. Lastly, the Twins recent history of drafting pitchers has been good. Berrios was considered a huge reach at 32(?), but he has turned out rather well to this point. Many of the college arms they drafted last year, such as Baxendale, Duffey, and Rogers, have also performed well to this point. Yes, it's way too early to know if they will pan out, but as of now I think the Twins deserve the benefit of the doubt.

May has gotten me really excited about Pinto and Vargas, who both displayed excellent (and much improved) plate discipline to go along with their triple-slash line: Pinto: 19 BB 22 K in 99AB Vargas: 15 BB 19 K in 96AB

Pretty interesting interview with Buxton from fangraphs. Here's the link: Interviewing Byron Buxton: A Tediously Thorough Account | FanGraphs Baseball Pretty much everything worth reading is posted below: Byron Buxton on How Pitchers Are Adjusting to Him “At the beginning of the season, I saw a lot of fastballs, fastballs in, and I was hitting them hard. Now, some pitchers are pitching me backwards, and I’m hitting the ball the other way pretty good. “Usually, after my first at-bat, I see a curveball or changeup first pitch. If I see it real well, I’ll take a hack at it. If I miss it, [i'll] step out and get ready to go again. Most of the time, I usually take the pitch.” Buxton on His Favorite Pitch to Hit “Middle. Middle-away. Fastball or hanging curveball.” Buxton on Adjusting to Advanced Breaking Balls “In the past I had trouble [with them]. Like, Gulf Coast League and Rookie Ball. It was hard for me to adjust to breaking pitches coming out of high school. But during spring training I saw breaking pitch after breaking pitch, and I sat back and drove the ball. So far, I’ve still got the same approach, hitting the ball the opposite way — and, if they come in, I just turn on it.” Byron Buxton on His Swing Plane, Which Is Generally Considered Flat “I’m just trying to keep a level swing, drive the ball in the gaps. Just trying to get on, get base hits. [M]y teammates can drive me in.” Buxton on Scoring from Second in High School on a Sac Fly “All I remember was, I knew it was hit to the right fielder, and I was tagging up. He caught the ball, and I took off towards third. When I looked up, my third-base coach was still telling me to come, and I just kept going.” The author: “Had you seen that before?” Buxton: “No.”

Yes Vargas was spectacular in May, but his OPS was just .741 in April when he had 3.5 times as many strikeouts as walks. He played just 41 games last year in Beloit because of his suspension. Give him at least another month or two in Cedar Rapids before promoting him. It won't slow his development much and it reduces the risk of him really struggling upon reaching AA, which could slow his development a lot more than the extra month or two he spends in Cedar Rapids.

Morales is currently walking in 8.4% of his plate appearances and striking out in 27.1%, which is worse than Aaron Hicks's 8.9% BB rate and 26.9% K rate. Furthermore, Morales's K and BB rates are slightly worse than what he has posted the past 2 seasons in Fort Myers. Don't expect his stellar year to continue. I would like to see Sano and Rosario stay in Fort Myers until at least the All Star break, if not a little later. Even though Vargas has been very impressive, he should stay a little longer. Remember, he has only played 95 games above rookie level because of that suspension.

First of all, we don't know for a fact that Stewart or McGuire is in that group of 4. Assuming that they are, I would have to guess that Appel is the odd man out, just because he's a Boras client, which might scare the Twins off. That being said, it's possible that Bryant might be off of the list because of Sano.

Although Taillon is considered a better prospect because he was drafted higher, he has never dominated the way Berrios has. In A ball, Taillon's ERA was 3.98 and he had 9.4K/9 and 4.4 K/BB while Berrios currently has an ERA of 2.70 with 10.8 K/9 and 6.7 K/BB. It is also worth noting that Berrios, unlike many other HS SP draft picks, logged 30 innings of rookie ball the year he was drafted, which could cause the Twins to promote him earlier than usual. However, I think that the Twins will pay close attention to his attitude and focus on the mound. If he continues to struggle in that regard, they will probably keep him in Cedar Rapids, even if he continues to dominate and post ridiculous K/BB ratios.

Although he system is full of 2B prospects (Rosario and Polanco) and SS prospects who will probably have to play 2B for defensive reasons (Santana and Michael), it lacks a true SS prospect who as a good chance of making it to the majors (sorry Niko). Any chance that Mejia can fill that role? He has MI experience, a good portion of his starts have come at 3B which seems to indicate that he has a strong arm, and his base-stealing ability indicates that he has good speed which might mean he has good range.